My Draft Supplement

I make a draft supplement every year. For all you guys who don't like to watch film/don't have time to watch film, I spend a lot of time scouting and analyzing players. This can be helpful when watching the draft and can help you get an idea of what other teams are looking to do. If you are a big film buff, feel free to agree/disagree/or ask general discussions to the community.

Enjoy.


2017 NFL Mock Draft


Here are the rules that I have placed upon myself. I do not forecast trades in the mock draft because things will quickly get out of hand. In a highly unpredictable setting, I choose to deal with certainties and not uncertainties. I have made my picks based on whom I think each team will take, not whom they should take. I have also taken the liberty to grade the pick based on a multitude of different elements including, but not limited to: fit, value, and need. This being said, do not consider the draft grade necessarily a grade on the player. Let’s consider one of the more intriguing draft prospects of this year, Christian McCaffrey.

My general thoughts on McCaffrey are that he fits the mold of a Reggie Bush/Danny Woodhead/Darren Sproles type running back. I question how well he will run between the tackles, but I definitely think he will succeed as a outside runner and pass catching back. My guess is that he will probably be better than Danny Woodhead but worse than Reggie Bush. I tend to view him as an early second round pick or a late first round pick. It is important to take fit into consideration. Let’s say the Patriots take McCaffrey with the last pick of the first round (assuming the Patriots had not traded away the pick). I would certainly grade this draft pick as an “A”. The Patriots have a slew of running backs, so I do not think that they will overwork him, and they love to pass to their running backs as evidenced by the success of Dion Lewis. Now interestingly enough, if the Giants trade up in the late second round and select him, I would grade the move as a “C+” despite the fact that they took him with a later pick. The reason being, the Giants need more of a feature back, and they do not maximize running backs as pass catchers.

Overall, to maximize the value of my mock draft, read it in its entirety. By doing this, you will get a more complete understanding of this year’s players.

1. Cleveland Browns – Myles Garrett, DE Texas A&M

Garrett may very well be the most pure athlete in this year’s draft class. His freakish athleticism draws comparisons to Julius Peppers when coming out of North Carolina. While watching film on him, I did not see the dominance that I saw with other players which was surprising. Although I think that Garrett has a relatively low downside due to his athleticism, I am not as high on him as other draft pundits. Many of these said pundits counter that his skillset translates more to professional football. In fairness, his pure athleticisms gives Garrett one of the lowest floors in the draft and one of the highest ceilings.

A

2. San Francisco 49ers – Solomon Thomas, DE Stanford

On one hand, I applaud the 49ers for not selecting a quarterback despite the obvious need. This is a really strong draft class with the exception of quarterback. Thomas and the 49ers have been linked for several weeks entering into the draft, but I simply do not understand this. Thomas looks good on film, but by no means did he appear to be a disruptive force. In this draft, there are multiple game-changing players, and I don’t see Thomas as one of them. Teams with top five draft picks need to try and hit homeruns - not doubles.

C

3. Chicago Bears – Marshon Lattimore, CB The Ohio State University

Marshon Lattimore really shined at the combines solidifying his moniker as one of the workout warriors. What is really impressive about Lattimore is that his combine skillset translates to the pro level. Not only does Lattimore have elite speed, but also his speed shows up on the field coupled with his quickness. Lattimore is a cerebral corner that is able to mirror receivers with ease. In addition, Lattimore has elite recovery speed in his tool chest. He will be a day one starter with Pro-Bowl potential.

A+

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – Leonard Fournette, RB LSU

Fournette really seems to be a smart pick for the Jaguars. They have been trying for years to shore up the running back position and have failed at every turn. By having the big body Fournette, the Jags have a running back that can handle a heavy workload. The Jaguars can center their offense on Fournette and therefore reduce the heavy burdon on Blake Bortles’ shoulders. The Jaguars really want Bortles to succeed in this make or break year, and Fournette gives him the best chance for success.

A+

5. Tennessee Titans – Mike Williams, WR Clemson

This pick is a difficult one. This offseason, the Titans flirted with Brandon Cooks but were unwilling to part with their first round pick. Obviously, the Titans need a go-to receiver, but I find it strange that they would choose a rookie over a known commodity. There is a chance that Malik Hooker could be the pick here, but they acquired Jonathon Cyprien in free agency. Ultimately, the Titans decide to build around Marcus Marriota. Williams, despite inconsistency in route running ability, is the best jump ball receiver in the draft. Williams has a good size/speed blend and the potential to be a solid future starter.

A

6. New York Jets – Malik Hooker, CB The Ohio State University

The fifth pick in the draft will certainly be an interesting point in the draft narrative. With the Browns, 49ers, Bears, and now the Jets picking, it is entirely possible that no quarterbacks will be drafted or multiple quarterbacks could be selected at this point. This year harkens me back to the 2013 draft where teams were able to figure out prior to the draft that the quarterback crop was generally poor. Hooker is a rangy athletic corner that could immediately help improve the Jets’ secondary. Early on, The Ohio State University becomes the major storyline – not the quarterbacks.

A

7. Los Angeles Chargers – Jamal Adams, S LSU

The safety talent in this year’s draft is the best in years. Despite lacking the measurable of Hooker and Peppers, Adams has the ability to find the ball and help in the run game. Adams has an NFL pedigree, as his father was a former first round pick. Personally, I am more intrigued by Jabril Peppers athleticism, but I still think that this is a good pick.

A-

8. Carolina Panthers – Jonathon Allen, DE/DT Alabama

Jonathon Allen is one of my favorite prospects in this draft. In my mind, the difference between Allen and Garrett is marginal, and if a team is looking for more of a power rusher, they could possibly prefer Allen to Garrett. At times, he appeared to be more dominant than Garrett, and he really caused offenses to struggle. For a stouter end (or interior lineman), he has nice acceleration off the line and top tier strength as he imposes his will on linemen. Allen offers position flexibility making him an additional value.

A+

9. Cincinnati Bengals – Rueben Foster, LB Alabama

The Bengals are in an interesting dilemma here. Their line was decimated by free agency, but this year, the draft lacks a top tier offensive line talent. The Bengals have never been quick to shy away from off the field concerns, so Foster is an obvious choice. I am a bit concerned that Foster was kicked out of the NFL Combine, which was essentially the biggest job interview of his life, and in recent days, he has tested positive for a diluted urine sample. Foster also appears to look a bit undersized on film, although his measurements show otherwise. Foster is the hardest hitting linebacker in this draft and predicates his game around being a physical presence. I prefer Haason Reddick, but Foster should be an instant contributor.

A-

10. Buffalo Bills – Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan

With word coming out of Buffalo that the Bills are considering declining Sammy Watkins’ fifth year option, the Bills already thin wide receiving corps looks even thinner. Corey Davis has the physical frame that Watkins has and would make an easy replacement in the 2018-19 season if the Bills elect to part ways with Watkins. Davis leaves Western Michigan as a polished receiver ready to contribute immediately. Davis is capable of running multiple routes and has sure hands.

A

11. New Orleans Saints – Taco Charlton, DE Michigan

As I read the tealeaves on this one, it appears that the Saints are enamored by Taco Charlton. Throughout the draft process, I think that Charlton’s stock has been vastly overinflated. Charlton has improved throughout his career at Michigan, especially at the end of last season. Charlton has the frame to build into a successful defensive end but lacks the polish of other available defensive ends. This year’s draft class has a slew of unpolished defensive ends that need to develop their skills to succeed at the next level. That being said, many of these unpolished talents have higher upsides than Charlton. It seems a bit early to be calling his name.

B-

12. Cleveland Browns – Mitchell Trubisky, QB North Carolina

After years of draft coverage, I have come to the conclusion that when a team is drafting a quarterback, he needs to be “the man.” What being “the man” essentially means is that teams drafting a quarterback should not try and do anything cute like trading back or patiently waiting for a quarterback to fall to them. Teams should be bold and aggressive (possibly willing to move up) to get their guy. This is where the Browns dilemma sheds some light onto their true feelings about Trubisky. By passing Trubisky with the first pick, they are essentially saying, “He is not the man.” If the 49ers, Bears, Jets, Bills, or Saints take him (or anyone jumps above Cleveland), essentially, they are okay with it.

The Browns have been down this road with the last two first round quarterbacks that they drafted. In 2012, the Browns were set to draft Kendall Wright, and when he was taken ahead of them, settled on Brandon Weeden. Two years later, the Browns passed on Johnny Manziel multiple times before eventually taking him at the 22nd pick.

I do think that Trubisky has the measurables needed to be a success at the pro level. He has a nice frame, delivery, and a strong arm. He has good accuracy, but the one lingering question is, “Why is first quarterback being selected in the draft unable to unseat Marquise Williams?” I also get nervous with quarterbacks with a single year of starting experience. I tend to think that Trubisky could turn into a starting QB, but it will take time for him to develop. The way Cleveland has gone through coaches in recent history makes me think that Trubisky will be expected to start sooner rather than later.

C+

13. Arizona Cardinals – Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech.

This is a case of where there’s smoke, there’s probably fire. Carson Palmer is 37, and the Cardinals have met with all of the big name quarterbacks. There is a strong likelihood that a quarterback will be selected here, but which one? I am not shy about my dislike for this year’s crop of quarterbacks, but I can get behind this pick. I also give credit to the Cardinals for defying the draft pundits and taking Mahomes ahead of some of the glitzier names. Mahomes has great accuracy, but problems with being mechanically consistent. Bruce Arians is a true quarterback whisperer and could work to fix these problems. Additionally, Mahomes would have at least a season to learn.

B+

14. Philadelphia Eagles – Christian McCaffrey, Hybrid Stanford

I feel pretty confident that I have sniffed this pick out. There has long been a rumor that a team in the teens covets McCaffrey, and that team is most likely the Eagles. I don’t think McCaffrey is a between the tackles running back, but he will provide a young Carson Wentz a safety valve with big play potential. I commend the way the Eagles have rebuilt their offense, and this pick works to ensure Wentz’s future. I am doing McCaffrey a favor and listing him as a hybrid instead of running back. If you expect McCaffrey to touch the ball as both a receiver and a running back, you will not be disappointed, but if you are expecting a traditional feature back, you are setting yourself up for disappointment. I can’t believe I am saying this, but I think that is a particularly good fit.

A-

15. Indianapolis Colts – Forrest Lamp, G Western Kentucky

The Colts are in between a rock and a hard place. The amount of sacks Andrew Luck took last year is unacceptable, and they have to protect the crown jewel of the franchise. The problem is, the Colts have so many holes and there are plenty of players better than Lamp available at this point. In fairness, Lamp is a solid tackle that will transition into guard at the next level. In fact, his skillset/mobility is better suited for guard. Even against solid competition, Lamp shined at the collegiate level. The problem with this pick is that the Colts have passed on multiple pro bowlers to draft a guard. On the other hand, putting Andrew Luck ahead of the rest of the team is fairly wise.

B-

16. Baltimore Ravens – Haason Reddick, LB Temple

Ozzie Newsome has a knack for finding linebackers, and Reddick is no exception. He is my top linebacker in this year’s draft. I absolutely love Reddick’s explosion off the line, lateral quickness, and football IQ. This is could easily wind up being the best pick in the draft.

A+

17. Washington Redskins – Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State

Have an extra nibble of popcorn at this pick on draft day. It is not out of the question that the Redskins could select a QB here. Despite this possibility, I do not think they move in that direction. There’s combine speed and then there is football speed. Despite Cook’s disappointing 40 time in the combine, Cook has consistently demonstrated football speed. After losing DeSean Jackson’s home run threat, Cook fills the void. The Redskins are talented in offense, and the selection of Cook will make his entire team better.

A-

18. Tennessee Titans – Marlon Humphrey, CB Alabama

The Titans are checking a lot of boxes in this draft. With both draft picks, they have filled significant needs. Humphrey is a hard-hitting corner that excels in run support. He has decent, but not elite speed despite what his combine numbers might suggest. He can get beat on deep routes and lacks the recovery speed of Hooker. Humphrey is a good, not great corner prospect.

B+

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Derek Barnett, DE Tennessee

Barnett is a clear step below Allen and Garrett in terms of ability and skills; however, he is a talented defensive end that surprisingly lasted this long in the draft. At the 19th pick, he represents clear value. Barnett’s stunning fall is not indicative of his talent, rather it is representative of the overwhelming talent in this draft.

B+

20. Denver Broncos – Garret Bolles, OT Utah

John Elway makes the most out of a bad situation. It is disappointing that the Broncos are essentially forced to draft an offensive tackle early in the draft process where there are still much more talented players available. In a year that lacks offensive tackles, Bolles really stands out as the best. He has great quickness and has the mean streak that you like in an offensive lineman. He is a mover of men and is a cerebral player. He is excellent as a run blocker, and one thing that I love about him is that you could see that he understood his assignment by where he wound up at the end of each play. Bolles would have been a mid second round talent last year, but has benefitted from being in a weak class.

C+

21. Detroit Lions – Charles Harris, DE Missouri

Charles Harris has more potential than Derek Barnett who went two picks earlier, but Harris has yet to maximize his physical skills. Teryl Austin, a future head coach, will work on raising his football IQ. A determining factor in Harris’s success is the coaching a team can provide him, as his greatest needs are technical and mental. If he is successful in getting Harris to improve his play recognition and the angles he takes on the field, he has the potential to become a star in the league. The Lions need a lot of help on defense, and Harris is a step in that direction.

A-

22. Miami Dolphins – OJ Howard, TE Alabama

Despite the need to retool their defense, the Miami Dolphins elect to take OJ Howard. Many may think that after trading for Julius Thomas, the tight end position had been filled. Based on the restructured contract Thomas has with the Dolphins, it appears that Miami shares the same concern as the Jaguars held. In all honesty, I would be surprised if Howard fell this far. He is a nearly complete tight end prospect that just needs to get a little better in blocking. Overall, he is an elite talent who will be a pro-bowl caliber tight end for years to come. In fact, Howard is so talented that I would not be surprised if he went in the top 10 by a team with much more pressing needs.

A+

23. New York Giants – Zach Cunningham, LB Vanderbilt

The Giants are a team that has to get better at linebacker, and they sadly reach to get Zach Cunningham. Cunningham is a guy that left me scratching my head as I wondered why exactly he is so highly touted. He has trouble in change of direction and fluidity. Additionally, it appears that he needs to put on weight, which could only compound the problem. Unfortunately for the Giants, their two biggest needs (linebacker and offensive line) are really weak at this point. The Giants would be better served to simply draft the best player available at this point.

C

24. Oakland Raiders – Kevin King, CB Washington

Kevin King was a player that shocked me on film. At 6’3’’ 200 lbs., I was nearly positive that I was going find a CB that would have trouble rolling his hips and would get beat off the line; however, that never really became an issue. King’s physical play consistently made it difficult for receivers. In fact, even when King was beat, he used his rangy body to make it difficult for receivers to make catches. After missing on Sean Smith in free agency last year, the Raiders find what they are looking for in King.

B+

25. Houston Texans – Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson

Every year, the sirens sing their seductive song of athletic quarterbacks with accuracy issues that most certainly “can be fixed.” I have been covering the draft long enough to know that more often than not, they do not pan out. Occasionally, we will witness these types of quarterbacks have initial success, and then suddenly and unexpectedly fizzle out. I am confident that Watson will fall into one of these two categories. In college, he never had to read the entire field. He ran a gimmicky offense that does not translate to the NFL. He lacks consistency. He lacks accuracy. He does not drive off his back foot. This pick reeks of desperation by the Texans. There are better quarterbacks available (Kizer would make much more sense here.) I really would be surprised if he is a starting quarterback in five years.

F

26. Seattle Seahawks – Obi Melifonwu, S UConn

Seattle has spent a considerable amount of time gathering information on Melifonwu, and it seems probable that he may be the pick. Melifonwu is a big, fast safety that fits the mold that Seattle likes for defensive backs. I am torn by this pick. When watching Melifonwu, it never felt like he was a big, physical player. He never appeared to be a big hitter and was not what I expected to see on film. That being said, Seattle is one of the best teams in the league at developing talent, and if they could turn him into a physical, hard hitting safety, they could’ve found a steal late in the first round.

B-

27. Kansas City Chiefs – Joe Mixon, RB Oklahoma

In the most shocking move of the draft, the Kansas City Chiefs take the highly troubled yet highly talented Mixon. Andy Reid has taken fliers players like Michael Vick and Tyreek Hill, and for the most part, helped them revamp their careers. Mixon’s brutal assault of his girlfriend in public coupled with an incident involving the intimidation of a parking lot attendant has led to multiple lost games due to suspensions for Mixon over his career leaving me with severe concerns about his character.

As a runner, he is the most talented runner in this draft. His vision, balance, and agility will translate to the NFL, and if he can stay out of trouble, he will be the most productive running back in this draft.

For the first time ever, I will not be grading a draft pick because I feel that his off the field issues are so severe. Grading him simply as a player, he is top five talent. Some teams have taken him completely of their board, and that is understandable too.

No Grade

28. Dallas Cowboys – Takkarist McKinley, DE UCLA

McKinley reminds me a lot of Jason Pierre-Paul coming out of college. McKinley has raw athleticism that he has built his college career out of. Unfortunately, he seemed to almost completely rely on talent and not technique. Because of that, there is a certain degree of bust potential. That being said, Rod Marinelli truly thinks that he can coach anyone. I imagine that on draft day, he will be pounding the table for this kid. The Cowboys desperately need to improve their pass rush. The only question is, “Can they polish this raw talent?”

B

29. Green Bay Packers – Tre’Davious White, CB LSU

Initially, I had Gareon Conley slated with this pick. Unfortunately, in recent days, Conley has been accused of rape. Because of the seriousness of the charges, and the depth at the corner position, Conley will likely fall out of the first round. Though White does not have the range of Conley, he certainly is a solid corner. Although he did not make it into the first round in my initial mock draft, he certainly is worthy of the first round.

B

30. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jabril Peppers, Playmaker Michigan

In one of the great travesties of the NFL, I envision one of the best talents in the draft to fall because front offices are overthinking the pick. Peppers could do a little bit of everything at Michigan. He lined up at the wildcat QB, RB, WR, S, CB, LB, and returner, and somehow this is a knock. Any team with a little creativity should be able to find plenty of ways to use Peppers. In the NFL, he will mainly play safety, but because of his athleticism, he could show up on both sides of the ball in various packages. The Steelers have had a great tradition of outside the box thinking, and Peppers is a terrific pick.

*Pick note – It’s entirely possible that Deshone Kizer is the pick here with Ben Roethlisberger contemplating retirement. This would be a nice fit, as Kizer would get time to develop and build consistency. Additionally, Kizer’s game has similarities between Roethlisberger.

A+

31. Atlanta Falcons – Jordan Wllis, DE Kansas St.

Willis is an underrated edge prospect that has a nice blend of size and speed. He has a knack of getting to the passer and is a disrupter. He needs significantly less polish than some of the pass rushers that went ahead of him. At this point in the draft, the Falcons are quite happy to find such value.

A-

32. New Orleans Saints – Jarrad Davis, LB Florida

A Bill Belicheck sighting at Jarrad Davis workout seems to have driven up Davis’s stock. I struggle to wrap my head around Davis as a first rounder. Davis appears to be more of a specialist than a fulltime player. He is pretty strong against pass coverage and considering the division that he plays in, this selection makes sense. Davis is weak and often gets lost or blocked in run coverage. The Saints have swung and missed too frequently on defense as of lately, and Davis compounds the mistakes. There are certainly more complete players available at this point.

C+


Big Board

1. Jonathon Allen, DT/DE Alabama

2. Marshone Lattimore, CB The Ohio State University ✚

3. Malik Hooker, S The Ohio State University

4. Haason Reddick, LB Temple

5. OJ Howard, TE Alamaba

6. Myles Garrett, DE Texas A&M

7. Joe Mixon, RB Oklahoma x

8. Leondard Fournette, RB LSU

9. Rueben Foster, LB Alabama x

10. Jabril Peppers, Playmaker Michigan x

11. Jamal Adams, S LSU

12. Malik McDowell, DT Michigan State

13. Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State x

14. Mike Williams, WR Clemson

15. Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan


Top Quarterbacks

1. Chad Kelly, Ole Miss x ✚

2. Mitchell Trabisky, North Carolina

3. Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech.

4. Deshone Kizer, Notre Dame

5. Deshaun Watson, Clemson


Order in which the QBs will be drafted:

1. Mitchell Trabisky, North Carolina

2. Patrick Mahomes II, Texas Tech.

3. Deshaun Watson, Clemson

4. Deshone Kizer, Notre Dame

5. Davis Webb, California

✚ - health concern

x- character concern


Top 3 Most Overrated Players (true value in parenthesis)

1. Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson (4th)

2. Patrick Mahomes III, QB Texas Tech. (3rd)

3. Mitchell Trabisky, QB North Carolina (2nd)


10 years from now, we will say the best player in the draft in the draft was Jonathon Allen.

10 years from now, we will say the biggest first round bust was Deshaun Watson.


The annual hidden gem of the draft is Ryan Switzer, WR North Carolina.


Odds and Ends

Every year, some of the greatest theater in the draft is quarterback class. Unfortunately for teams in need of a signal caller, this class is reminiscent of the 2013 NFL draft where a franchise quarterback was nowhere to be found. Every quarterback in this class has obvious red flags, and I tend to see all of these quarterbacks as prospects. Ideally, these quarterbacks will find homes with starting quarterbacks in the twilight of their careers where the young rookies will have time to hone their crafts.

If you have been following my coverage over the years, you may notice that my grades seem to be usually high this year. With the exception of quarterback and offensive linemen, I really like this class. Simply put, the depth is amazing. The amount of talented players that I project to not be selected on day 1 is stunning.

This year, players are available in all shapes and sizes. I fully anticipate that this year will feature more “surprises” than ever before. I fully anticipate my own fallibility to be present as I expect more than a handful of players that I did not have going in the first round appearing in the first round. In fact, I am offering a disclaimer stating that if players that I don’t project in the first round winds up going in the first round, it is entirely possible that they could receive high grades. I no longer look at positional rankings in a linear fashion. Because there is such a wide variety in players, it is entirely possible that one team may value a certain type of player ahead of another. For instance, some teams may value big physical corners while others may value more rangy corners. This year teams will be afforded such opportunities, and therefore, teams face a greater burden of finding players that fit their scheme.

Finally, I encourage everyone to really watch the second day of the draft. Teams will be getting great talent on Friday and the landscape of teams will greatly shift.