This is how I see things:
We are all in on Tannehill, but we need a backup to him if he get hurts. Now the playoffs tell us we need a clutch QB. I'm not sure that's Tannehill, but I do think he's the leader on offense we need. Besides, he's Gase's guy and I'm not going to foist a QB on Gase that he doesn't want.
They're talking about a drafting his backup, but I'd like to see if I couldn't get Mark Sanchez cheaply, or even bring back Matt Moore for another year. I don't see anyone else on the market I can get cheaply that could spell Tannehill in relief competently.
I firmly believe you can't be a SB contender if you don't have a strong DL that doesn't wear out in the 4th quarter. You need pass rushers.
I also think you need to be able to run the ball in the 4th quarter reliably, something we can't do.
So I see OL and pass rushers as huge needs this offseason.
I know we need to solve our coverage problems. We can't cover TE's, slot receivers, etc. But I think the NFL is evolving where a 4-2-5 becomes a reality. LB's aren't a premium position, CB's and Safeties are. We have one of the best SS's in football in Jones, our problem is FS and a LB to cover in pass protection. We have another SS in McDonald who may well translate to the hybrid Safety/LB we need to cover slot and TE's. I hope so, I'm banking on it, otherwise, I have no idea why we signed him. CB wise, I'm happy, I really don't see it as a position of need, though if Denver really drops Aqib Talib, I'd take a shot.
We don't have much salary cap room and I don't want to be a big player in it. I'll wait till 2019 when things free up.
My FA strategy (the basics, I'm not getting into every spot on the bottom the roster.)
Cut Timmons, Julius Thomas and restructure Branch to free up Cap space.
I'm letting Jarvis Landry go. Too expensive for a slot receiver. I've got Grant and a practice squad full of WR's to replace him with.
SIGNED PLAYERS
Name Position Cap Hit
Michael Thomas S 1,000,000 a yr (2yrs)
Ja\'Wuan James G 6,000,000 a yr (4yrs = 6 million a year, 35% guaranteed.) We need OL help, so why let him go?
Cody Parkey K 1,000,000 a yr (2yrs)
Dion Lewis RB, 3,000,000 a yr (2yrs) The workhorse back we need to compliment Drake.
Damien Williams RB 2,000,000 a yr (2yrs) perfect backup who knows the system.
I will entertain bringing in Vontae Davis as a FS for the right price. I know he's a CB but I keep hearing he'd be a fine FS, which we badly need. (Does anyone know it that's really true?)
I want Mark Sanchez or Matt Moore to come back as Bup QB on the cheap.
I badly want Martavius Bryant, WR Pittsburgh. I want to offer him 5-6 million a year for 4yrs with a percentage of that based on behavior. Yes, he's had off season problems that got him suspended for a year, is a bit of a headcase, but he's dynamic. He can go to the house on any play, which makes him a better signing than Landry.
Going into the draft, and using Fan Speak's draft simulator on difficult, many times with trading options to produce as realistic as a draft as I can, I've tailored my draft to not only fix our holes, but enhance us to playoff contender. (I ignore things like Mayfield or Barkley dropping to the second round.) I've looked at this many times, and I'm sure things will change after the combine, but this is how I see it so far. With 4-6 QB's going earlier, some surefire top 5 players could fall us to at pick 1-11. I understand in the first round you should always go BPA regardless of position unless it's QB. You want to grab a playmaker. Derwin James should be there for us, as should be one of the LB's Edmunds or Smith. Heck, I badly want Marcus Davenport, DE there, but we drafted Harris last year so I'm not sure drafting another project is the best way to go with the first pick. The problem is I just don't see a play maker I'm in love with, or on that fits our schemes or the new reality of the NFL. Derwin James is a SS, not a true FS, I have McMillian and Kiko as inside LB's, and no WR just says take me. And most of my draft simulations tell me that there will be a run on OL in the first round through the second.
My desired scenario, which I think is realistic is to trade down, because I've identified sleepers I want in the middle rounds but don't have all the picks I need if I stay at 1-11, which other teams should covet to get one of the playmakers. It's actually realistic to trade down into the mid 20's and pick up an extra 2nd and third rounder.
So:
1-22 and I'm taking Isaiah Winn, G, Billy Price G-C, or even OT Mike McGlinchey. I want a play and plug LG that could move to a different position if necessary.
2-10 I'm taking a TE. DALLAS GOEDERT or TROY FUMAGALLI should be here. A dynamic TE is a must. I'd take Mark Andrews too, but I think he goes before that.
2-24 I'm flipping for two 3's because I have sleepers I want to grab in the mid rounds.
3-11 EDGE CHAD THOMAS, MIAMI (my new sleeper pass rusher now that Marcus Davenport rose so high.)
3-20 QB LUKE FALK WASHINGTON STATE (Supposedly a Kurt Cousins type I think that will make the perfect back up to Tannehill)
3-26 S JUSTIN REID STANFORD (I've examined all the safeties hard. So many project at SS or Hybrid when we need a true FS. He's not the fastest, but probably the smartest and should be one half of what we need to fix our coverage problems)
3-30 WR EQUANIMEOUS ST. BROWN NOTRE DAME (A potential dynamic receiver to replace Parker. May fall to here because he had a lousy QB) If he's not here, just skip and move everyone below up.
4-11 LB DORIAN O'DANIEL CLEMSON (A sleeper I covet highly. He's the LB that is great in pass coverage, the second part to solving that damning problem.)
4-30 G TIMON PARRIS STONY BROOK (a project to develop to back up our starting line.)
6-9 WR BRAXTON BERRIOS MIAMI (The next Wes Welker.)
7-5 RB JAYLEN SAMUELS NORTH CAROLINA STATE (Gase should have some fun working him into the lineup as FB or HB)
7-11 QB LOGAN WOODSIDE TOLEDO (Poorman's Drew Brees to put on the practice squad to develop.)
Alternately if I can't move down, I'll still find a way to get an extra third round pick.
1-10 Quenton Nelson, or OT Mike McGlinchey, or Isaiah Winn, or G, Billy Price G-C
2-10 TE. DALLAS GOEDERT or TROY FUMAGALLI
3-11 EDGE CHAD THOMAS, MIAMI
3-26 S JUSTIN REID STANFORD
4-11 LB DORIAN O'DANIEL CLEMSON
4-20 QB LUKE FALK WASHINGTON STATE, or MIKE WHITE, KENTUCKY
6-9 WR BRAXTON BERRIOS MIAMI
7-5 RB JAYLEN SAMUELS NORTH CAROLINA STATE OR WR
7-11 C or OL or WR
Feel free to chime in, offer different possibilities, etc. As I said, I was trying to be realistic, if I had my way we trade up to draft Mayfield. I'm just trying to find players to fill the holes we have while making this a better team.
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How many people stopped reading after this?
FinsPensFan, jdallen1222, muskrat21 and 1 other person like this. -
In what world is Dion Lewis a workhorse running back? He averaged 13 touches a game.
shamegame13 likes this. -
I firmly believe you can't be a contender with Sanchez or Moore as on your roster.
zatrex99 likes this. -
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invid, Irishman, LI phinfan and 10 others like this.
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eltos_lightfoot and danmarino like this.
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Isn't Bryant still under contract with the Steelers? What are you giving up for him?
Personally ... I don't need a headcase. Landry is a headcase that actually produces, I don't need one that doesn't but has "potential."
Why ... why do you like Sanchez so much lol? I read it all, and agreed with some and liked your later round analysis, but the Sanchize? A Dolphin? The hell?
Frankly, I am done with Moore, and I don't want to bring in some crusty old vet as backup - if neither of the two you draft can do it, then we shouldn't be drafting them. If THill goes down, our team isn't strong enough to carry the backup the way the Eagles carried Foles.zatrex99 likes this. -
zatrex99, Aqua4Ever04 and danmarino like this.
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Very nice work. A few notes:
1. I wouldn't trust Dion Lewis for two reasons: he has a lengthy history of injuries, and it's difficult to know if he can produce outside of Belichick's system. Would still be an okay pickup, assuming the deal is short-term and very team-friendly.
2. I really appreciate that you prioritize Ja'Wuan James, Michael Thomas, Cody Parkey, and Damien Williams. I've seen a lot of projections having Miami let go of some--even all--of these players. Each of them brings a unique talent to the team, be it mechanical skill, durability, leadership, or consistency. Plus, it's never wise to let your own home-grown talent walk out the door, unless they're seeking an unreasonable amount of money, of course.
3. Ryan Tannehill is our starter. I'm glad you acknowledged that--it isn't even up for debate. What is up for debate, however, is who his backup will be and whether or not we should invest a draft pick into the position. You seem to hit a home-run here, going after Luke Falk in the 3rd (Falk is my guy; give him 1-2 seasons as an understudy to Tannehill, and you'll have a franchise QB by the time Ryan's contract is up). That will give us flexibility at the position, allowing the team to opt to re-contract Tannehill and trade Falk for tremendous value, or roll with Falk for the long-term. I'm also on-board with bringing in another veteran at the position, but I'm not sure Mark Sanchez is the guy.
4. I would pass on Martavis Bryant. Like others have said, we don't need a headcase in the locker-room, and on top of that, he hasn't shown he can be reliable on the field. If we're letting Jarvis walk (which I'm still torn on), it might be best to promote from within rather than shell out big money in an inflated market for an unknown free agent. I have a good feeling about Isaiah Ford.
5. I invest a lot of time into the draft, and as far as my understanding goes, Isaiah Wynn would be a bit of a reach in the 1st. Billy Price would be okay in a trade-back scenario, but Mike McGlinchey (as the draft's top tackle prospect) will be long gone. Tackles, even if they're not bluechip prospects, always go higher than expected, much like pass-rushers. It's my preference to address the offensive line in free agency and late in the draft, where gems are often found.
6. I like Dallas Goedert a lot. To me, it's him or Mark Andrews, and I'd even consider taking Andrews in the first with a trade-back scenario. Troy Fumagalli doesn't appeal to me much--plays like another Dion Sims, which is fine, but we need a dynamic seam-threat at TE.
7. I haven't done much research on Chad Thomas--not going to comment on that pick until I do.
8. Again, Luke Falk is a great pick at the end of the 3rd, but I think he'll be gone by the end of the 2nd.
9. There's absolutely no way that Justin Reid and Equanimous St. Brown slip to the 3rd round unless a video of each of them smoking weed through a gas mask is leaked on draft night. Reid and St. Brown are locks to go in the 1st, barring injury/horrific combine. I have St. Brown going to the Ravens at 16 and Reid going to the Steelers at 28.
10. Solid value with Jaylen Samuels in the 7th. He might go a little higher, but either way, I think he's going to be a good change-of-pace back.Last edited: Jan 31, 2018Irishman, danmarino, eltos_lightfoot and 2 others like this. -
Irishman, thetylernator, eltos_lightfoot and 1 other person like this.
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If I can trade back as I prefer to do, then I'll take Faulk with the 2nd 2nd rounder, but you're right, he may go before that. NE at 1-32? I think White would make a good plan B though. Just looking for longtime back up that you could trade off for picks later.
As for Sanchez, I'm just looking for a cheap back up for a year. I don't see a lot out there. I don't want to pay this guy more than 2-3 million a year.
You may be right, the draft positions are still settling, but most boards have Reid in the 2nd or 3rd round. DeShon Elliott or Terrell Edmunds or possibilities too there. maybe.
I'm not sure if St. Brown will fall, just that he's rumored to. Jaleel Scott is a consideration, basically I'm looking to replace Parker here if he continues to keep getting hurt. So if anyone has a suggestion, let me know.Irishman, danmarino, thetylernator and 1 other person like this. -
My projection changes almost weekly, but this is what I have right now:
1 (11): Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
Contrary to what some other members have said about him, Smith is going to be very good. He is a prototypical WLB with the speed to close in on ball-carriers quickly, the athleticism to run toe-to-toe with slot receivers, and the intelligence to dissect plays and make the right decisions in the open-field.
2 (42): Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma
Andrews is the dynamic seam threat Miami has lacked for years. His footwork and route trees are well beyond his years, though from what I have read, the more scouts are studying him, the higher he is being ranked on draft boards. By the time the combine is over, he may well be the consensus top TE. If that happens, the team should consider Hayden Hurst out of South Carolina or Dallas Goedert out of North Dakota State as 2nd round prospects.
3 (73): Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
Falk, too, may well be gone by this juncture. I've written an analysis on him, so I won't go into depth again, but he's a project who has the potential to become a franchise QB. If he's gone at this point, I'm looking at another position here and considering Chase Litton (QB, Marshall) in the 5th.
5 (107): Ade Aruna, DE, Tulane
Aruna shows characteristics similar to Ziggy Ansah, though the former is much, much more raw than Ansah was coming out. Additionally, he'll need to put on a significant amount of weight to play in the NFL at his position. He's a 2-3 year project with an enormous ceiling, and with two fifth round picks, it's worth taking a chance. He could very well be Cameron Wake's successor.
5 (128): Godwin Igwebuike, S, Northwestern
Igwebuike is a traditional ball-hawking DB, which is something our secondary sorely lacks (save for Xavien Howard). On top of this, he's shown to be a proven and reliable tackler, leading the team in tackles multiple years. With a good combine, he could soar as high as the 3rd, but for now, he's a latter-end prospect.
6 (169): Steve Ishmael, WR, Syracuse
Ishmael had a quietly productive season for an almost completely inept Syracuse offense, and that can be attributed to his outstanding work ethic off the field. Ishmael is a quiet, crisp-route runner that will beat his DB with finesse. He isn't a physically imposing receiver, but he does a lot of the little things right, and as such, I'm going to make a huge jump here: he reminds me of another former Syracuse WR. Any guesses?
Marvin Harrison
Notably, Ishmael broke his receiving record this year. Just sayin'.
7 (197): Brendan Mahon, G, Penn State
Much like Ishmael, Mahon did a lot of the little things right at Penn State, and he was a part of one of the greatest offensive lines in Penn State history that saw Saquon Barkley set multiple records. Mahon's style reminds me a lot of Colt's G Jack Mewhort, though Mahon is a bit better fit for the zone-run.
7 (203): Kamryn Pettway, RB, Auburn
Pettway was once one of the premier backs in the SEC, but after a suspension and an injury, he lost his job to Kerryon Johnson and was relegated to a much lesser role. However, the potential is still there, assuming he can stay out of trouble and remaine healthy. Miami desperately needs a power back to complement Kenyan Drake, and if Pettway gets his head and body right, Adam Gase could have a deadly one-two punch on offense.Last edited: Feb 1, 2018 -
There has been chatter Miami might address LG in FA. I listened to Travis's podcast with CKparrot and they threw out a few names we could get for for a descent price. Be nice to go into this draft with that need off the table, and draft 1-2 OL in the later rounds to develop. I'm still really high on Timmon Parris.
It's interesting you picked Chase Litton as a back-up if Falk isn't there. His arm and quick delivery reminds me of Garappolo, but he seems to lack touch and accuracy. I'm waiting for someone good to do a scouting report on him.thetylernator and Irishman like this. -
I'm not going to live Sanchez down, am I, LOL.Dorfdad, texanphinatic, Irishman and 1 other person like this. -
The funny part is, and in no way am I even remotely suggesting that we get him, but Sanchez had some pretty good flashes of playing really well. The Jets, like they do to everything they touch, ruined him pretty good.
zatrex99 likes this. -
The first person who figures out why some talented guys go bust while others don't will make a pretty penny. Even the Pats have made some questionable calls, though they do round 1 as well as anyone.danmarino likes this. -
In fact, the Phins need adjustments ad nearly every part of the team. At least the OFFENSE has to be upgraded, likely without paying 14 Million to Jarvis Landry
1. As Fasano and Thomas were nearly crap, the Dolphins need two new TEs - the third one will be kept in the fight between Gray and Derby. Get one out of FA and draft one! Available FAs: Brate or Burton / available draft prospects: Mark Andrews (2nd or 3rd round) / Troy Fumagalli (3rd round)
2. As Jarvis Landry is way to expensive, get Parker in the slot and sign cheaper WRs, who are in fact more producitve than Landry/Parker - and who will not cost 14 Million. Candidates: Michael Crabtree (7 Million), Sammy Watkins (5,9)
3. Quarterback. Don´t chase one of the "top prospects" - get one in the 2nd or third round, so he is able to grow behind RT and Fales. Candidates: Mason Rudolph (2nd round, the franchjise talked to him at Senior Bowl) / Mike White (3rd round) / Luke Falk (3rd round)
4. Running Back. Get a powerful back behind Drake and Willams in the draft, likely in the third or fourth round (Downtrade with Arizona for an additional third round pick?). Candidates: Bo Scarborough, Josh Adams, Royce Freeman
5. Offensive Line: there are some adjustments, which come without any new guys. Move Jesse Davis to RT, Ted Larsen to RG and keep Tunsil at LT. Then sign Justin Pugh (projected 5.9 Mios) as LG - he had to very strong and one very crappy year, but he is the best Guard available. We also have Asiata, Brendel, Smith, Young and could draft Clemsons Taylor Hearn in one of the late rounds (6th/7th). And, of course, there is Pouncey left. He played 16 games, but he was not the same impact player he had been before surgery. Keep him or cut him? I think, the Phins better cut him and sign Broncos´ Matt Paradis. He may be restricted free agent, but if the Broncos chase Cousins, they´ll lose nearly all of their cap space - so they cannot sign Paradis.
thats all on offense. Sign Paradis, Brate, Crabtree, Pugh - draft Rudolph, Andrews, Adams, Hearn
DEFENSE
1. Defensive Line - keep Hayes or draft Davenport in the first round
2. Linebacker squad - McMillan returns, I want Roquan Smith to be drafted in the first round and sign one (if the Phins draft Davenport in the first round, it would require two) of the league´s top LBs. As the Eagles struggle with their salary cap, keep your eyes on Nigel Bradham (projected 5.9 Million, Alumnus Florida State) / if there is the need for ILB, try to get Zach Brown or NaVorro Bowman. With that adjustments, Kiko and Anthony, the LB squad will strengthen up by far
3. Secondary - the Secondary needs experience and a very strong CB. Lippett returns from injury, but he is no leader. Howard and Tankersley are very talented, but they lack experience and consistancy. So the Phins should go after Patrick Robinson. As the Eagles struggle with the salary cap... - he is available for 6 Million. In Adiition, draft a Safety in the fourth or one of the late rounds, e.g. Siran Neal, Godwin Igwebuike or Van Smith
all on defense. Sign Bradham, Bowman/Brown, Robinson - draft Smith/Edmunds/Davenport, Neal/Smith/Igwebuike
all after all: sign seven players, draft six - and see how it works -
Not a fan of Davenport but i really like your plan. I am a bit hesitant when i don't see the dog in a defensive end. The guy i like at that position is Clelin Ferrell / Chad Thomas. No clue if he is in this draft class but i like him because of his tape. Can set the edge , can pass rush, he's younger and his production is better against better competition. (let me know if he declared, still not sure) Davenport might get pushed up passed our reach and teams might fall in love with him. If Denver falls in love with cousins , who knows what could happen in this draft. Darius Leonard is another I have kept my eyes on as well as a LB prospect (later rounds of course). His coverage skills and his hips have impressed me. If Jarvis is gone I like the wr out of memphis miller. I'm a bit of a film junkie and i watch tape repeatedly. Got any other prospects that you like let me know :D
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He's like a ****ing tsunami in that North Texas game. It's North Texas, so take it with a grain, but he absolutely dominated that game. He plays with an explosiveness and violence that make a nice ball of putty to coach up. -
I will hate this if it happens, but I have a strong notion that Saquon Barkley is going to slide, and the Dolphins will jump all over it, and the player will be mediocre in the NFL. I don't believe he should be the top ranked RB.
I do believe there is a strong chance the Dolphins let the UFA's walk and then expect a couple nice comp picks in 2019 to go with more than a hundred million in salary cap space after a big rollover.
The 2019 free agent class projects to be absolutely loaded with talent. Never know who gets extensions and new contracts from their current teams, but it could be a really loaded class...http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/
I have to mention the contract listed for Michael Thomas because it is absurd. An NFL veteran with starting experience who was recently named special teams player of the year in the NFL; not the Dolphins, the NFL.
Thomas will get himself a nice fat multi-year deal with a good chunk of guaranteed money, but he won't get it from cap strapped Miami. Something in the 4 yr 11 mil range I expect.zatrex99 likes this. -
The browns would be idiots not to take him with one of their first two picks.. -
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The Browns have over a hundred million in cap space. God only knows who and what position groups they will address in free agency.
It's the same story for a lot of the teams in the top ten this year; loads of cap room. Colts,49ers,Jets, Bears are likely to make cuts resulting in close to 80 mil in cap space. It's impossible to have even a wild guess at what these teams may actually need when it comes time for them to draft, and then there are trades. The Colts are being rumored to be selling the 3rd pick, and what about the Giants??
Saquon Barkley and Guice both scored way behind other RB's in this year's class in a number of categories, but elusivity was the most interesting and applicable. PFF did some great work on their signature stats for this year's draft class, and their free.
I would identify the highest value picks as being in the 2nd and 5th rounds.