You're an owner, and you want to make a coaching change for 2011. Here's what you're thinking about as this disappointing (presumably) season winds down:
1. There's a very good chance the new coach won't have access to the players beginning in March, when a potential lockout would happen. He may not have access to the players until a new labor deal is signed, which seems more and more like it won't happen until at least the summer. And that's being optimistic.
2. The new coach won't be able to work with his new staff very much either, because most teams will put assistant coaches on varying part-time contracts. The new coaches won't be in the building much, if at all, during a work stoppage.
3. The big-name coaches -- Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden -- will be in play. But will you want to lock them in at a big number for 2011 if you're not sure when or if you'll be playing football?
"What all that means,'' one head coach not on the hot seat told me Friday, "is an advantage for the in-house candidate unlike there's ever been. Financially and functionally, the top coordinator makes sense more than it ever has.''
In Minnesota, if Zygi Wilf succumbs to the masses and fires Brad Childress, he's got a reasonably priced defensive coordinator in place, Leslie Frazier, who's already a go-to confidant for many of the players, and the offense would be in good shape with coordinator Darrell Bevell keeping the reins. In Cincinnati, if Marvin Lewis leaves, firebrand Mike Zimmer could ascend to the job, with offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski staying in place. In Dallas, Jason Garrett, who has righted the ship in just two weeks, might make the point moot anyway because owner Jerry Jones already seems to be thinking of giving him a shot to win the job in 2011*. In Carolina, there's not an obvious guy in-house, though owner Jerry Richardson wants to keep the coaching payroll down, so he could think of promoting from within.
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