NFL 2010: A Year of Mediocrity

Many of you may not know me since I rarely post outside of the club (and even then rarely outside my weather threads during the season) or the GM League, but this is a little project I have been working on.

As I sat down earlier this past week to do my game by game pre-training camp predictions for the NFL, I had certain pre conceived notions. The Jets were overrated, the Ravens and Chargers would have gaudy records, the Texans would finally leap into the playoffs, and the NFC East would have a clear cut favorite in the Cowboys. I was wrong on all of those accounts.

If anybody has ever tried going through every game one-by-one, they will know that it is far more a time consuming process than it appears to be. Unfortunately for me, this process was made a lot longer by a ludicrous number of tie breakers that had to be figured out. At the end of the regular season, I have SEVEN teams in the AFC at 10-6 that had to go to four playoff spots (two divisons and two wild cards). The NFC was much easier, with only one tie-break for the sixth spot.

AFC East
Miami won the division in week 16 with a home win against the Lions, which is a good thing, because they would lose in week 17 in New England, giving the Patriots a spot in the cluster of 10-6's. The Jets surprised me with how well they ended up doing. Unfortunately, when it came time for tiebreakers, New England's division record eliminated the New York's by virtue of a Jet loss to Buffalo.

1. Miami 11-5
2. New England 10-6
3. New York 10-6
4. Buffalo 3-13

AFC North
As previously mentioned, I had expected Baltimore to have an amazing record when I started this, but I had no idea just how difficult the Ravens' schedule was. The Bengals had the division lead for a majority of the year, but a loss in Baltimore in the final week knocked the Cincinnati from a first round bye all the way down to the six seed (based on record vs. common opponents). Pittsburgh started off 2-5, but made a hard push at the end of the season.

1. Baltimore 10-6
2. Cincinnati 10-6
3. Pittsburgh 9-7
4. Cleveland 3-13

AFC South
Another year of total domination for the Colts in this division. I do not think that Indianapolis are as good as they were the previous season, but I do think that this division is just not very strong. Houston was not able to make that next step (again), thanks in part to a harder schedule. I do not believe Chris Johnson can repeat the same dominating performance from last year and I think Vince Young will return to not being very good. Jacksonville finally completely collapses into itself.

1. Indianapolis 12-4
2. Houston 8-8
3. Tennessee 6-10
4. Jacksonville 3-13

AFC West
And here is the biggest shocker of them all ladies and gentlemen. I have been banging the Oakland Raiders drum this offseason, but more to the tune of 8-8, not 10-6. However, the improved quarterback play with Jason Campbell along with solid contributors at every other positions means a formidable opponent. Add to this the fact that the schedule is forgiving with an easier start to the year, and Oakland is set up to take this division. San Diego is hurt by its tougher schedule and by my believe that the window has closed for them. Kansas City has the weapons to start to make a move, unfortunately for them, when all the tiebreaks are finished, they ended up last of the seven 10-6 teams.

1. Oakland 10-6
2. San Diego 10-6
3. Kansas City 10-6
4. Denver 6-10

Seeds
1. Indianapolis
2. Miami
3. Oakland
4. Baltimore
5. New England
6. Cincinnati

Wild Card Round:
6 Cincinnati over 3 Oakland
5 New England over 4 Baltimore
Divisonal Round:
1 Indianapolis over 6 Cincinnati
2 Miami over 5 New England
AFC Championship Game:
2 Miami over 1 Indianapolis

The AFC playoffs were so hard to predict for me. The ultimate match-up between Miami and Indianapolis was especially tough based on my desire to not seem like a homer in picking Miami to reach the Super Bowl. However, at the end of the day, I firmly believe that given this match-up, Miami would in fact win the AFC.
 

NFC East
At several points throughout the season, I took a look at the tallies beside the NFC East teams and was stunned to see they were all tied. When I finished the final week and looked up, I was stunned to see how close I was to AFC like chaos. I have Dallas winning in Philadelphia in week 17, but if I had picked the Eagles then the division would have ended in a four way tie. As it is, I think that the Giants and Cowboys are the better teams, but because of schedules and how games fell, the other teams were able to equalize the playing field. In the end though, it was Dallas by a nose.

1. Dallas 10-6
2. New York 9-7
3. Washington 9-7
4. Philadelphia 9-7

NFC North
There were two true great teams in my prediction scenario, and one of them resides in Wisconsin. Green Bay has all the makings of juggernaut, and their record supports that. Minnesota takes a tiny step back from last year, but still has a pretty impressive season, except for the sweep by Green Bay. I had envisioned Detroit getting closer to .500, but I think the fans would be happy with being close. Chicago has all the makings of a lame-duck team.

1. Green Bay 13-3
2. Minnesota 11-5
3. Detroit 6-10
4. Chicago 2-14

NFC South
The other great team is last year's champion, the New Orleans Saints. I just don't see how New Orleans is not every bit as good as they were last year, the only thing that stops them from a record similar to last years is the emergence of a better division. Carolina and Atlanta both tied at 10-6, but despite Atlanta winning the week 17 match-up, the Panthers win the strength of victory tiebreaker (yes, it went THAT far to figure out that wild card).

1. New Orleans 12-4
2. Carolina 10-6
3. Atlanta 10-6
4. Tampa Bay 2-14

NFC West
The final division sees the rise of a new champion as a very talented Niners team seizes the power void left by the depleted Cardinals. Alex Smith is more than capable to "not lose" with the offensive weapons he has and the defense will continue to be very good. Arizona starts off slow, but starts to gain traction throughout the year, but it will be too little, too late. The Seahawks struggle again, and so do the Rams.

1. San Francisco 11-5
2. Arizona 7-9
3. Seattle 4-12
4. Saint Louis 1-15

Seeds
1. Green Bay
2. New Orleans
3. San Francisco
4. Dallas
5. Minnesota
6. Carolina

Wild Card Round:
4 Dallas over 5 Minnesota
3 San Francisco over 6 Carolina
Divisional Round:
1 Green Bay over 4 Dallas
2 New Orleans over 3 San Francisco
NFC Championship Game:
1 Green Bay over 2 New Orleans

The NFC playoffs, like the NFC playoff picture, was much easier to figure out than it's counterpart. It was always about the Championship game and it all came down to where it was played. If in Green Bay then the Packers win and if in New Orleans then the Saints win. Fortunately for the Packers, they get it at home and the victory.

Super Bowl XLV
Green Bay Packers over Miami Dolphins

It was hard to pick the Packers to go 2-0 over Miami in a season, but I just could not bring myself to pick Miami to win it all in July.

So there you have it, the fruit of more labor than I anticipated. I hope you all enjoyed this little look and look forward to the fans to come in and blast the team apart for the hole at FS, unproven OLB's, or lack of vertical threat at receiver. To be honest, I had no intention of putting Miami in the Super Bowl, but as I looked at the AFC, I found that every other team had similar questions that hindered them. The AFC (and the NFL minus the 2 NFC teams) is mired in mediocrity, good mediocrity, but still mediocrity.

So let the blasting begin . . .

 

Oh I know it makes zero sense bro, I just followed through the imaginary season until the finish.

In no way to I expect a Super Bowl or anything, like you, I would just be happy with a playoff berth.