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NFL Draft:Value or Reach?

Discussion in '2012 GM League Forum' started by BuckeyeKing, Mar 20, 2012.

  1. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    To kill some time I'm going to give my opinion on who I thought got very good value and who reached a bit. Come draft day we will see who is right.
    I'm only limiting to two players per category. You can list more if you want.

    Value
    25. Cleveland Browns - David DeCastro, OG, Stanford. DeCastro will likely go top 15 great value for the best guard in the draft.
    23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina. Really like Ingram more at a 3-4 OLB where he will probably play in the NFL I think he has a good chance going fairly high. Great value pick by Tampa.


    Reach
    21. Cincinnati Bengals - Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina. I don't think there is a team that will take a risk on Jeffery in round 1. Bengals gambled maybe they wanted Hill? In any case Jeffery has the talent but I think this was too high for him.
    19. Chicago Bears - Andre Branch, DE, Clemson. Branch Will probably be a late first I think he has what it takes to go sooner but I needed to get him. Time will tell.
     
  2. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    - Id have no problem taking Jeffrey at 24 or 31. If he was there it would have left me in a coin flip situation at 31 on whether I was taking Alshon or Mercilus.
    - Taking Branch with Mercilus and Ingram on the board definitely makes it a reach pick imo.
    - Fletcher Cox, Brandon Weeden, Rueben Randle, and Mohamed Sanu were imo reach picks. Each of those guys SHOULD go at least 20-25 picks lower where they went IMO. Just IMO. I actually like Sanu, just not in early round 2.
    - Value so far: Decastro, Konz, Gilmore, Jenkins, Adams. You could make a great case for any of those players going 10-15 picks higher then they did.
     
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  3. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    I agree Sanu was a reach, but I'm very picky with WRs and I know how they fly, so I couldn't risk it and get better value with a WR I didn't want. Considering I got all my targets (Sanu would have been taken no later than 41/44. no way he lasts to 75) it worked out, as Konz and Sanu would have flipped.
     
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  4. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    I don't like Mercilus. Ingram seems like a better fit as a 3-4 OLB.
     
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  5. finsbuck719

    finsbuck719 New Member

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    imo, Jeffery was the 2nd best WR entering the draft. Had he weighed in at ~240, I probably wouldn't have taken him earlier than the 2nd round...but he came into the combine fit. His in game speed makes up for his 40 time and his game reminds me a lot of Brandon Marshall's.

    Nick Perry was already high on my list, then when he went to the combine and put up numbers that rivaled Cam Wake, DeMarcus Ware, LaMarr Woodley, Brian Orakpo, etc... I felt like he was a sure top 15-20 pick.
     
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  6. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Mercilus is raw regardless of what position you put him at but performed very well in a recent pro day playing as a stand up OLB. Having watched Ingram as thoroughly as I did the last few years I feel just the opposite which is why I was willing to pass on him.
     
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  7. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree Sanu was a forced reach because the way WR's are drafted in this league it reminds me of the way you get a run on closers in fantasy baseball drafts and everyone feels compelled to take one. I wouldnt dock you or anyone else for it necessarily because it was a position of need but its still a reach
     
  8. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The other part of the Jeffery pick for you is that you already have vertical threats so why not get the best possession guy in the draft?
     
  9. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Also want to point out GIK is a lucky SOB. That is quite the tandem he drafted. Atlanta got the best DT in the draft IMO.
     
  10. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    I don't know if anyone can call Jeffery a reach or value right now. You don't really know who he is.
     
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  11. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    I agree with Alen. He could be right up there with Blackmon when its all said and done. He could also unwork his way out of the NFL. Hes loaded with potential though.
     
  12. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    You can sorta say that about everybody though.
     
  13. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Not really. From a talent standpoint, you know what he is but mentally, no. Many others don't really have that issue.
     
  14. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    But you never really know who will wind up being a reach or value until down the line. For Jeffery there's just another factor. You can get perceived value, but that's fool's gold.
     
  15. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Obviously, but what I'm saying is that his stock is fluctuating because of his issue. The area in which he gets drafted in will tell a lot about his character.
     
  16. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    Well, or what teams think of his character. We've seen many players fall due to character issues and generally not have issues.
     
  17. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Yes...
     
  18. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    And that's still fool's gold to me is all I'm saying.
     
  19. AshyLarry

    AshyLarry New Member

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    Marcy Projects
    Steals: Easily Kansas City with Kalil at 7 and Richardson at 11
    Reach: Definitely Shea McClellan at 18! Also Michael Floyd at 9 and Nick Perry at 24 was somewhat of a reach
     
  20. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    Based off purely talent, I don't see Floyd as a reach at 9. If he's a reach at 9, so is Blackmon at 3 IMO.
     
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  21. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    I should have saw this coming.
     
  22. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I like Richardson but Rb's at 11 arent steals....even adrian peterson fell to 7.
     
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  23. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nick Perry at 24 is a reach?
     
  24. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    Don't ever bring up that draft again Boik
     
  25. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    What? That Adrian Peterson fell to 7? :shifty:

    Ok I'm going to bed now
     
  26. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    So. Much. Hate.
     
  27. AshyLarry

    AshyLarry New Member

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    Peterson fell to 7 because there were some questions about his collar bone...I just feel like when a player is touted as a top 4 overall player and he falls to 11, that is great value.
     
  28. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I guess my point was more that RB's shouldnt be considered as top 5 picks for reasons you've probably already heard. If the best running back in the NFL and IMO the best RB prospect since Barry Sanders wasn't worth a top 5 selection you're really not going to convince anyone else was worth a top 10. Richardson is a good prospect, one of the best RB prospects since Peterson. 12-15 is about where he will and should go imo.
     
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  29. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Disagree Nick Perry is a reach. I can see him going in the teens next month.

    As far as Floyd goes, in MY opinion he is the 4th best WR prospect but many people who are smarter than me feel like he is the clear cut 2nd best WR so I cant say he was a reach.
     
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  30. AshyLarry

    AshyLarry New Member

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    Marcy Projects
    There is no way he goes past 6 in the actual NFL Draft.
     
  31. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    The only chance he goes before 6 barring a trade up, is Cleveland.
     
  32. AshyLarry

    AshyLarry New Member

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    If Claiborne is gone before 5, the Bucs will get Richardson..if not I can see someone trading up for him
     
  33. Bdogtitan11

    Bdogtitan11 New Member

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    Just to weigh in, I think Richardson is good value at 11. I understand that RBs aren't valued as highly as they once were (three taken No. 1 overall in 1980s, only one the past three decades) but Richardson does represent good value where the Chiefs picked him.

    He's a top 5 player in the draft in terms of talent.

    I don't want to be too negative, but I think Kuechly at 5 is way too high (not that he won't be good, but because he could be had later in the draft, so that pick was not maximize IMO).

    Brandon Weeden going at 26 seems to be a bit of a reach too. I understand that he's polished, but his long-term potential is minimal. SICK has surrounded him with the tools to thrive right away, but is he a significant upgrade over Cassel? Like Kuechly , I think trading down and drafting Weeden later would have been the right move.
     
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  34. sports24/7

    sports24/7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm probably biased because I took Kuechly, but I think the guys going to be a stud and I didn't want to trade down and risk losing him. And, really I think the only player on the board better than him was Kalil, but I didn't need a tackle. He's everything you want in a Mike linebacker, and at age 20 has monster upside. I think as the draft gets closer, we'll start to hear a lot more about him and I'd be pretty surprised to see him fall much further than the top 10.
     
  35. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    Trust me, as the guy trading the pick, who fielded offers, Weeden wasn't lasting past pick 26.
     
  36. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Sick put Weeden in the best possible situation, Andy Reid would do just fine with Brandon.

    No if he went to Oakland??? Eww
     
  37. finsbuck719

    finsbuck719 New Member

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    This. I figured Jeffery was the 2nd best WR in this draft. I figured Nick Perry was the best speed rushing DE/OLB in this draft. I figured Chase Minnifield was the best cover corner in this draft (yes, better pure m2m coverage skills than Claiborne). I figured Markelle Martin was the best centerfielder in this draft and that was a need I had at FS.

    I may have "reached" and even traded up to "reach", but these guys imo are all going to be studs in the NFL. Now, with the rest of my picks, I'm just gonna sit back and try and get some steals. I've got some room to play around with, now that I have depth at almost every position.
     
  38. Bdogtitan11

    Bdogtitan11 New Member

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    Andy Reid is coaching the Jaguars!!! I do agree though that Weeden is in best possible position.
     
  39. Mach

    Mach Cap Dude

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    I wasn't drafting him you illiterate tard. I traded the pick to Sick. I got offers on said pick, as you know. He wasn't the only one interested in Weeden at that spot. :p
     
  40. Bdogtitan11

    Bdogtitan11 New Member

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    I understand everyone's reason for drafting a player where they did, even if I don't agree with it. After all, we all have different needs and view players differently.

    To me, it comes down to draft philosophy. In Money Ball, Billy Bean talks about not caring how his picks are perceived and drafting guys where he thinks they belong, not where they are slotted. I agree with that theory, partly, in the sense that you must target who you like an ignore what everyone else is saying. You have to trust your instinct.

    But on the other hand, I think getting the most value of every draft pick is essential. Maybe you can make exceptions here and there, but if a guy is going to go at 30 and you're at 20, trade down to 25 and get more picks for later. Max out your assets.

    That being said, I traded away most of my picks so I can't really say ****.
     

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