Without looking, I would say the safe bridge. It seems she could logically interpret I could choose any bridge (unless she knew how petrified I was of snakes), so might as well go the safest route.

 

What happens if you trip over your own two feet and fall off of whatever bridge you choose?

 

Smart Football is a fantastic blog. I can't recommend it enough. And that's a great illustration of how teams try to play away from tendencies.

 

Depends who's calling the shot. If it's Henning I'd imagine he'd find a way to miss all three bridges and drown in the river.

 

Dan Henning: Ricky, build bridge #4. She'll never expect that.

Ricky: But I don't know how to build a bridge.

Dan Henning: THAT'S WHY SHE'LL NEVER EXPECT IT!!!

 

This article makes it sound as if play calling is black and white. If we pick offensive play A lets hope they dont pick defensive play A which equals an automatic stop. Which is why even if they KNEW we would run up the middle at the 1 and pick a run stopping play...you still can call the play if you have confidence you can execute better than them. You dont need to go all cute.

 

Exactly. If we want to further compare this scenario to Sunday's infamous play call it would be like saying there are 2 bridges. Bridge 2 would be really hard to cross with falling boulders, cobras, and all sorts of other scary crap. Your pursuer knows there's little chance you'll pick that one, so she's waiting at the edge of bridge 1 which is almost completely safe. But, the only thing she has to stop you with is a flyswatter. You go around her easily. So even though she probably knows which path you're going to take, there's little reason to try and fool her by going the dangerous route because she can't do much to stop you even if she has guessed correctly.

 

exactly right my friend
play the percentages in that scenario

 

I look at the bridge scenario this way...

Your pursuer could choose any of three bridges, a 33.3% chance of choosing each, before they factor in their opinion of which one their fugitive would choose.

So, at that point, I suspect the pursuer will believe the fugitive has a higher chance of choosing the more dangerous bridges, slightly, in an attempt to be less predictable.

I would weight the choices depending on how dangerous each bridge was. The rocks bridge is 10% more dangerous, therefore I'd say there is 10% more likelihood the fugitive might use it. That makes it a 43.3% chance, in my mind.

The 20% danger bridge with the snakes is therefore 20% more appealing to the fugitive... and to the pursuer. That means the pursuer has a 53.3% chance of choosing the snake bridge.

That's 96.6% chance the pursuer will choose one of the more dangerous bridges.

I take the safe one.

And probably get shot. lol.

 

Your signature pic is offensive to me. that was something in the past so why still have it up. I find it very childish at this board to have to look at a guy dangling a bag of marijuana in front of Ricky at this point.

nothing funny about it
shows a big lack of respect

 

Did I ever tell you about the time I woke up in a cold sweat from a nightmare of a killer clown? It was horrible....

Oh....Im sorry...what were you saying again?

 

The odds I make it across the bridge without getting caught and getting hurt and killed...says I choose the falling rocks bridge.