Niche Topic: Play Calling Riddle/Puzzle
13 replies
This is completely and 100% stolen from SmartFootball.com. You should go check out his site. It is an amazing site and well worth your time.
That being said, there has been plenty of talk about play calling lately, so I thought this would help get some more sparks and ideas flying around :up:
Suppose first that you wish to cross a river that is spanned by three bridges. (Assume that swimming, wading or boating across are impossible.) The first bridge is known to be safe and free of obstacles; if you try to cross there, you will succeed. The second bridge lies beneath a cliff from which large rocks sometimes fall. The third is inhabited by deadly cobras. Now suppose you wish to rank-order the three bridges with respect to their preferability as crossing-points. Your task here is quite straightforward. The first bridge is obviously best, since it is safest. To rank-order the other two bridges, you require information about their relative levels of danger. If you can study the frequency of rock-falls and the movements of the cobras for awhile, you might be able to calculate that the probability of your being crushed by a rock at the second bridge is 10% and of being struck by a cobra at the third bridge is 20%. Your reasoning here is strictly parametric because neither the rocks nor the cobras are trying to influence your actions, by, for example, concealing their typical patterns of behaviour because they know you are studying them. It is quite obvious what you should do here: cross at the safe bridge. . . .
Now suppose that you are a fugitive of some sort, and waiting on the other side of the river with a gun is your pursuer. She will catch and shoot you, let us suppose, only if she waits at the bridge you try to cross; otherwise, you will escape. As you reason through your choice of bridge, it occurs to you that she is over there trying to anticipate your reasoning. It will seem that, surely, choosing the safe bridge straight away would be a mistake, since that is just where she will expect you, and your chances of death rise to certainty. So perhaps you should risk the rocks, since these odds are much better. But wait … if you can reach this conclusion, your pursuer, who is just as rational and well-informed as you are, can anticipate that you will reach it, and will be waiting for you if you evade the rocks. So perhaps you must take your chances with the cobras; that is what she must least expect. But, then, no … if she expects that you will expect that she will least expect this, then she will most expect it. This dilemma, you realize with dread, is general: you must do what your pursuer least expects; but whatever you most expect her to least expect is automatically what she will most expect. You appear to be trapped in indecision. All that might console you a bit here is that, on the other side of the river, your pursuer is trapped in exactly the same quandary, unable to decide which bridge to wait at because as soon as she imagines committing to one, she will notice that if she can find a best reason to pick a bridge, you can anticipate that same reason and then avoid her.
I admit I thought about it and didn't come up with what is considered the correct answer. I will include the answer below in spoiler tags, BUT DON'T LOOK UNTIL YOU HAVE TRIED TO FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF.
Answer:
One takeaway (and not the only one) is that, play-calling is not easy, and a mixed strategy “kinked” in a direction of your strength but otherwise random might be the best, or at least the best starting point.
You can check out the full blog post and conversation located here:
http://smartfootball.com/grab-bag/this-post-is-about-game-planning-and-play-selection
MonstBlitzforum_veteranWithout looking, I would say the safe bridge. It seems she could logically interpret I could choose any bridge (unless she knew how petrified I was of snakes), so might as well go the safest route.
emocomputerjockNew MemberWhat happens if you trip over your own two feet and fall off of whatever bridge you choose?
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Vengeful Odinforum_veteranSmart Football is a fantastic blog. I can't recommend it enough. And that's a great illustration of how teams try to play away from tendencies.
Depends who's calling the shot. If it's Henning I'd imagine he'd find a way to miss all three bridges and drown in the river.
MonstBlitzforum_veteran"Ricky Williams wrote:
Depends who's calling the shot. If it's Henning I'd imagine he'd find a way to miss all three bridges and drown in the river.
Dan Henning: Ricky, build bridge #4. She'll never expect that.
Ricky: But I don't know how to build a bridge.
Dan Henning: THAT'S WHY SHE'LL NEVER EXPECT IT!!!
Wildcat23New MemberThis article makes it sound as if play calling is black and white. If we pick offensive play A lets hope they dont pick defensive play A which equals an automatic stop. Which is why even if they KNEW we would run up the middle at the 1 and pick a run stopping play...you still can call the play if you have confidence you can execute better than them. You dont need to go all cute.
"Wildcat23 wrote:
This article makes it sound as if play calling is black and white. If we pick offensive play A lets hope they dont pick defensive play A which equals an automatic stop. Which is why even if they KNEW we would run up the middle at the 1 and pick a run stopping play...you still can call the play if you have confidence you can execute better than them. You dont need to go all cute.
The article is just to get you thinking, it doesn't claim to be the end all be all of play calling. It just forces you into the mindset of a playcaller.
MonstBlitzforum_veteran"Wildcat23 wrote:
This article makes it sound as if play calling is black and white. If we pick offensive play A lets hope they dont pick defensive play A which equals an automatic stop. Which is why even if they KNEW we would run up the middle at the 1 and pick a run stopping play...you still can call the play if you have confidence you can execute better than them. You dont need to go all cute.
Exactly. If we want to further compare this scenario to Sunday's infamous play call it would be like saying there are 2 bridges. Bridge 2 would be really hard to cross with falling boulders, cobras, and all sorts of other scary crap. Your pursuer knows there's little chance you'll pick that one, so she's waiting at the edge of bridge 1 which is almost completely safe. But, the only thing she has to stop you with is a flyswatter. You go around her easily. So even though she probably knows which path you're going to take, there's little reason to try and fool her by going the dangerous route because she can't do much to stop you even if she has guessed correctly.
KillerphinsNew Member"MonstBlitz wrote:
Exactly. If we want to further compare this scenario to Sunday's infamous play call it would be like saying there are 2 bridges. 1 would be really hard to cross with falling boulders, cobras, and all sorts of other scary crap. Your pursuer knows there's little chance you'll pick that one, so she's waiting at the edge of bridge 1 which is almost completely safe. But, the only thing she has to stop you with is a flyswatter. You go around her easily. So even though she probably knows which path you're going to take, there's little reason to try and fool her by going the dangerous route because she can't do much to stop you even if she has guessed correctly.
exactly right my friend
play the percentages in that scenario
Bpkluxury_boxI look at the bridge scenario this way...
Your pursuer could choose any of three bridges, a 33.3% chance of choosing each, before they factor in their opinion of which one their fugitive would choose.
So, at that point, I suspect the pursuer will believe the fugitive has a higher chance of choosing the more dangerous bridges, slightly, in an attempt to be less predictable.
I would weight the choices depending on how dangerous each bridge was. The rocks bridge is 10% more dangerous, therefore I'd say there is 10% more likelihood the fugitive might use it. That makes it a 43.3% chance, in my mind.
The 20% danger bridge with the snakes is therefore 20% more appealing to the fugitive... and to the pursuer. That means the pursuer has a 53.3% chance of choosing the snake bridge.
That's 96.6% chance the pursuer will choose one of the more dangerous bridges.
I take the safe one.
And probably get shot. lol.
KillerphinsNew Member"Bpk wrote:
I look at the bridge scenario this way...
Your pursuer could choose any of three bridges, a 33.3% chance of choosing each, before they factor in their opinion of which one their fugitive would choose.
So, at that point, I suspect the pursuer will believe the fugitive has a higher chance of choosing the more dangerous bridges, slightly, in an attempt to be less predictable.
I would weight the choices depending on how dangerous each bridge was. The rocks bridge is 10% more dangerous, therefore I'd say there is 10% more likelihood the fugitive might use it. That makes it a 43.3% chance, in my mind.
The 20% danger bridge with the snakes is therefore 20% more appealing to the fugitive... and to the pursuer. That means the pursuer has a 53.3% chance of choosing the snake bridge.
That's 96.6% chance the pursuer will choose one of the more dangerous bridges.
I take the safe one.
And probably get shot. lol.
Your signature pic is offensive to me. that was something in the past so why still have it up. I find it very childish at this board to have to look at a guy dangling a bag of marijuana in front of Ricky at this point.
nothing funny about it
shows a big lack of respect
vt_dolfansubscriber"Killerphins wrote:
Your signature pic is offensive to me. that was something in the past so why still have it up. I find it very childish at this board to have to look at a guy dangling a bag of marijuana in front of Ricky at this point.
nothing funny about it
shows a big lack of respect
Did I ever tell you about the time I woke up in a cold sweat from a nightmare of a killer clown? It was horrible....
Oh....Im sorry...what were you saying again?
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
vt_dolfansubscriberThe odds I make it across the bridge without getting caught and getting hurt and killed...says I choose the falling rocks bridge.
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
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