No Contract Extension for Tua Yet

I think the point was that the gap shouldn't be that big.

Miami keeps signing solid backups and they end up looking like they have never seen a football compared to Tua.

 

Agreed.

Skylar is probably closer in talent to the XFL than NFL, and Mike White has never been good. They are both back of the draft types with below average toolsets. At the very least, they should have brought in a veteran with some success in the league.

 

Teddy was a competent QB before coming here and the same with Briskett the year before (who was one again after). If Tua is just middle of the road and carried by weapons or scheme it shouldn't have been a massive drop off and it was massive. 2021 saw a even worse scheme and weapons and the drop off was somehow just as big.

 

If I was given a choice of our current backup QBs and Teddy, I would have chosen Teddy 10/10 times. He's at least had success in this league. He never started and finished a game last year, and I think never played with Armstead.

 

But I thought that the scheme was so good that all it required was for the QB to throw to a spot. Surely a seasoned veteran like Teddy is capable of doing that.

 

My initial post wasn't to you, it was a response to StaleTacos who did say that about the scheme. If you are going to jump into debate, at least know what's being debated.

Your problem is not fully understanding what is being said and how these plays work. Tua isn't just blinding throwing to a predetermined spot. He is making a presnap read based on the alignment of the defense, then making a post snap read off key defenders.

 

Reading your full post Brad, it almost reads to me as if you’re saying, “no but yes you’re right”.

What I should have added in my response to Taco was if it was all scheme and nothing to do with Tua, then the backup quarterbacks wouldn’t have accumulated an 0-5 record. They should have at least won ONE game.

 

Bridgewater didn't start and finish one game, and Skylar doesn't belong in this league. Tua IMO is a middling to slightly above average QB . That's what this scheme needs to be successful. Put in a similarly accurate average to above average QB, and you'll get similar results. We didn't have that last season, and not going to have that this season unless they trade for someone which I hope to **** they do if Tua goes down.

 

No scheme will consistently make a middling to slightly above average QB produce elite stats. If Tua plays well again this year you'll basically be proven wrong. Games start in just over 24 hours.

 

You keep saying this as if it's a fact. It isn't. Nick Foles and Alex Smith both lead league in passer rating. Elite! So did Tanny, and I think you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks he's elite.

Jimmy G is consistently up there. That's a good ceiling for Tua. A good accurate above average passer in a great system with loads of talent around him.

 

None of those did it consistently. Nick Foles did it for one year only, that's it. Alex Smith also for only one year if you go by qualifying attempts/games started. Garoppolo has only once come in a statistical "elite" category (usually top 6-7) with qualifying attempts.

So no, there are no examples of average to slightly above average QBs that suddenly sustained elite level play over a larger number of seasons once put in a new system. As I said before, doing it once has been done by quite a few (and the best example is Kramer in 1986, not those you listed). But consistently? No.

 

I noticed you didn’t reply and counter to my initial response about Tua’s actual “body of work”.

Whether or not Thompson belongs in the league can be debated all day long but to further re-iterate, if it was all scheme and nothing to do with Tua (especially with so many that touted how wonderful a backup Dishwater was), those backups should have won at least ONE game.

The Dolphins were winless without Tua last season. That in itself should dispel the entire scheme theory.

 

Tua hasn't done it consistently either though? So what are you talking about? The discussion was about last season, and Tua didn't actually do it for a FULL season. Tanny did it a couple years in a row, I wouldn't consider him an elite QB. Jimmy G is always up there, Career rating of 99.6. Schemes can make players very good to elite. That is Tua's path in the NFL. Take it away, and he'd be like what Jimmy G is about to be with the Raiders.

 

Well you are saying it has nothing to do with Tua. I'm not. I'm saying if you put in an above average Jimmy G type, you'd get similar results. The problem with the Dolphins is the backup QBs are so bad, it makes the dropoff make Tua look like a God.

Also, didn't Thompson win the Jets game to get the team into the playoffs?

 

What?? You're not even reading the posts you respond to. I said if Tua does it AGAIN this season you'll basically be proven wrong. And 400 pass attempts is more than enough for qualifying as playing a "season", at least based on criteria everyone has been using for decades. It's certainly more than Nick Foles, and you didn't mind using him as an example. Tanny is also a good example. Two years high level play then finally fell back to his averages. And as mentioned, Garoppolo doesn't actually get into an elite category: above average yes, not elite.

Like I said, games begin tomorrow. If Tua plays well again this year you're wrong. We can infer that Tua is (VERY likely) a well above average QB and the assessment you and many others made about him was incorrect, i.e., he has sufficient elite traits to offset any others that aren't.

 

Oh OK. So we agree then, with the Tanny example, the scheme can make the player elite for multiple seasons.

If he does it again this season, I'd certainly buy into it more ala Tanny but still be suspect. IMO, there will be a dropoff, and the best case scenario is Jimmy G. Worst case is he's out of the league. Actually worst case might be Tua sticks around and the Dolphins give him a long extension, and we're stuck in mediocrity.

 

There's a difference with Tanny. I pointed this out the first year Tanny played elite (which btw was with 286 attempts, far less than Tua). The issue with Tanny is you had 6 years of full season play at statistically average level prior to his elite play. I wrote code to run through all QB seasons since 1978 (the rule change) and found no examples where elite level play was sustained after 6 or more years of average play. Had a huge bet with TDK here who predicted Tanny would buck the trend and be the new Brees, while I predicted he'd fall back to his averages. I won that bet.

Thing with Tua is that he did it in his 3rd year starting. There are MANY examples of QBs that turned out elite who starting playing at a high level only from year 3 or 4. That's what is different. It's not an isolated year like Kramer late in his career. Tua's statistical trajectory is still firmly consistent with a future elite QB. It's also consistent with one that isn't. But you put 2 years at years 3 and 4 in an elite category (operationally defined at lets say top 6-7, though really it's based on standard deviation above the mean), then it's MUCH more likely you actually have yourself an elite QB, i.e., one that can play at high level most years.

 

I don't think the difference matters much. The system and talent around him is what matters. Thrust an average/above average QB into an elite system, and you may get elite results, or very much above average ones no matter the year you do it in their career. What was important for Tua wasn't more experience in the league but getting out of Flores' system and getting a generational WR, not playing through injuries, and skipping the best pass defense twice.

 

It matters statistically whether that fits to your intuition or not, and it's better to let the data guide the hypothesis than trying to keep a hypothesis alive that doesn't fit the data. There are many examples of elite QBs who started off not-so-good their first few years, so Tua is still in this mold. That's precisely why I said I wouldn't support Tua if in 2022 he didn't show he was in that elite-ish category. Well he passed the 2022 test. Now he needs to sustain high level play, or as I said before I'll start to sour on him too. So we'll see what happens, but if he plays at a high level again this year you're basically proven wrong (very low chance you'll end up correct after that).

 

Except Tanny did this and then fell back to his norms so I wouldn't be.

 

Nope. He did it after 6 years of average-ish play. No one after that kind of record sustained it going forward. Many have sustained high level play after breaking out in year 3 or 4. This is different.

 

That's your caveat and condition. Not mine.

Remember, you said this. Nothing about what year it was in QB's career. This was wrong. Tanny proved it. Time to move on and stop shifting goalposts:
"So no, there are no examples of average to slightly above average QBs that suddenly sustained elite level play over a larger number of seasons once put in a new system."

 

lol you're back at trying to look at individual words, phrases or sentences while ignoring all context. I made it clear what the difference was: sample size. There's a huge difference between 6 years and 2 years. So from a statistical point of view there's a "confidence interval" on claims such as "QB X is an average QB". That confidence interval narrows with larger sample size. What I said is true, but you have to take into account sample size with those arguments, and in my original posts on Tanny way back when he started to play elite I constantly used hypothesis tests to make my points, first on whether 2019 and 2020 were actually statistically elite relative to his play before (it turned out to be yes), and second whether they remain an anomaly given his overall play or whether it's evidence of sustained elite play (turns out no, it's just an anomaly). So what I said stands if you take into account sample size.

And you and your ilk are the ones that have constantly shifted goalposts throughout the season. Don't try to act like I'm shifting goalposts lol. Once Tua shows he can do something you guys basically said he couldn't, you shift the goalposts again, and again and again. The one constant with you and some other Tua haters is that you won't let the data drive the hypothesis. You simply can't move away from your initial views on Tua as him not being a major factor in any elite production — HAS to be the surrounding cast, everyone but Tua! Either way, if he plays at a high level again this year you're (essentially) wrong, and it's going to look ridiculous for you to keep up your posting style.

 

Nope. What you did was lose an argument on a factual basis based on the words YOU wrote, THEN you shifted the argument. Sorry I'm not playing the game on your terms.

Hopefully if Tua regresses, you can come in here and admit how bad your statistical analysis was.

 

Yup, back to the same StaleTacos I called the worst poster on this site. Can't admit he's wrong no matter the facts. Worse, he resorts to lie after lie to try to make a point.

And I have a long history of admitting I'm wrong when that occurs. I did that with Tanny's 2nd year. But I turned out to be right after that.

 

Yep, back to attacking a poster when you lose a discussion on words you wrote. But but but context! You keep doing you.

 

There's reason to attack a poster when that poster is disingenuous. Listen, there's fairly widespread agreement around here you're a troll, and there's some serious question as to whether you even support the Dolphins. It's not just me picking up on this. And when you see someone that disingenuous posting only to stir the pot, then yes the proper thing is to attack the poster.

You got a very bad reputation around here. But as you said: "you keep doing you".

 

Such a bad loser. You lost. Good day sir.

 

No I won. You simply have no counter-argument. And yes I'll have a very fine day, thank you for that.

 

Sure you did. Only one thing is certain from my interactions with you, you consistently show you need these wins a lot more than me.

 

I'm not backing down when I'm right and someone is trying to lie their way through an argument like you do.

 

Bro, you wrote this "No scheme will consistently make a middling to slightly above average QB produce elite stats. If Tua plays well again this year you'll basically be proven wrong. Games start in just over 24 hours."

Tannehill did it two years in a row proving you WRONG. There was no context to understand about what year the QB was in. You just added it and shifted goalposts after. You are so insanely stubborn and self righteous it blinds you.

 

Lies. In how many posts just in THIS debate did I explain that there was a difference statistically between 2 years and 6 years of average play. I said that multiple times. I also explained the effect of sample size at a slightly more technical level. So don't lie (as you so often do) about me not providing context.

Furthermore, in post after post I made clear about what "consistent" or "sustained play" meant. In multiple posts you can see that it doesn't refer to 2 years. You're just "doing you" again trying to win an argument by looking at some individual word, phrase or sentence ignoring all context. And this context actually goes back at least to 2019 with Tannehill, though I don't think you were posting back then. What I do know is I made this same argument repeatedly during the 2022 season, so this isn't the first time you've heard me provide proper context. Regardless, all the context is here in this very debate, and predictably you lie about it.