No Contract Extension for Tua Yet

"cbrad wrote:

No scheme will consistently make a middling to slightly above average QB produce elite stats. If Tua plays well again this year you'll basically be proven wrong. Games start in just over 24 hours.

Foles. And other QBs Reid has had

"cbrad wrote:

First, you're not done. Don't lie about that again (you said you were "done" before). Second, I had many of these arguments with you, so you know exactly what my position is. You simply refuse to be honest about it because it shows you're not letting the data drive the hypothesis. Third, you keep trying to make an argument about a word, phrase or sentence YOU didn't place in proper context, ignoring the substance of the argument — which proves you wrong: there is a difference between 2 years vs. 6 years average play prior to the first elite season.

Finally, there's no goalpost moving on my part. My position has remained consistent throughout. YOU (and your anti-Tua ilk) on the other hand, have repeatedly moved goalposts like:
- Tua would never play at an "elite" level (proven WRONG)
- Tua could never "carry" a team when the rest of the team played bad (proven WRONG)
- Tua could not play at a high level with a bad OL (proven WRONG)
- Tua would never be good at the deep ball (proven WRONG)
- Tua can't play well in the cold, away from home (proven WRONG)

After each of these events, you and your anti-Tua ilk engaged in a goalpost shift with every possible form of mental jujitsu to keep alive the idea that Tua is just an average to slightly above average QB. It was always something else that was the reason he did well. The surrounding cast, the opposing defense, injuries on the other team, etc. THAT is what goalpost moving looks like.

Do elite stats mean the QB played elite? There are ZERO other possibilities?

"resnor wrote:

Foles. And other QBs Reid has had

I already went through Foles and a bunch of others. Read my posts. It was only one year. It wasn't sustained afterwards.

"resnor wrote:

Do elite stats mean the QB played elite? There are ZERO other possibilities?

When I say Tua's stats are consistent with both an elite QB as well as one that isn't, that clearly means there are multiple possibilities. Again, read my posts before responding.

More importantly, based on past debates we've had, you aren't allowing for the possibility that Tua was a major factor in producing those elite stats. You're fine with keeping him if he produces well and remains healthy, but no matter how many times I've asked you to consider the equally viable hypothesis based off of his 2022 data that Tua himself might be an elite QB (yet to be determined), you've refused to do so.

So right now the question is better posed to you: there are ZERO other possibilities?

Oh, ——. Not again .

"Sceeto wrote:

Oh, ——. Not again .

Don't worry, we'll get more data starting tomorrow. At least the debates won't be based on the exact same dataset.

"cbrad wrote:

Don't worry, we'll get more data starting tomorrow. At least the debates won't be based on the exact same dataset.

HaHa!
No. Please?

It's like trying to argue metaphysics with a materialist/physicalist.

"Sceeto wrote:

HaHa!
No. Please?

It's like trying to argue metaphysics with a materialist/physicalist.

Yeah well Tua is real, his stats are real, and it's equally viable to assume his 2022 stats were in large part due to him as that they weren't. The anti-Tua crowd refusing to seriously consider a very plausible hypothesis isn't even something you'd do in an honest metaphysics debate.

"cbrad wrote:

Don't worry, we'll get more data starting tomorrow.

"Fireland wrote:

Hahaha!!

"Fireland wrote:

:sidelol:

"cbrad wrote:

Yeah well Tua is real, his stats are real, and it's equally viable to assume his 2022 stats were in large part due to him as that they weren't. The anti-Tua crowd refusing to seriously consider a very plausible hypothesis isn't even something you'd do in an honest metaphysics debate.

As long as we win tomorrow, I don’t care if Tua is 50/50 for 1000 yards or if he’s 0/50…

As long as we win. Losing sucks!

"cbrad wrote:

I already went through Foles and a bunch of others. Read my posts. It was only one year. It wasn't sustained afterwards.

When I say Tua's stats are consistent with both an elite QB as well as one that isn't, that clearly means there are multiple possibilities. Again, read my posts before responding.

More importantly, based on past debates we've had, you aren't allowing for the possibility that Tua was a major factor in producing those elite stats. You're fine with keeping him if he produces well and remains healthy, but no matter how many times I've asked you to consider the equally viable hypothesis based off of his 2022 data that Tua himself might be an elite QB (yet to be determined), you've refused to do so.

So right now the question is better posed to you: there are ZERO other possibilities?

If a full year isn't important in your book, then why the fuck do you take Tua's one excellent partial season, out of three, as meaningful?

"resnor wrote:

If a full year isn't important in your book, then why the **** do you take Tua's one excellent partial season, out of three, as meaningful?

How many times do I have to answer the same question? Again, read my posts. It's the trajectory from rookie to year 3. This isn't just an isolated elite season after 5-10 years. This is typical of the breakout season many elite QBs have in year 3 or 4, at least statistically. Of course, as I said, it's also consistent with an eventual flop. So we'll see. But there's serious reason to get excited about possibly having landed an elite QB given what we've seen of Tua so far. More data starting tomorrow!

"resnor wrote:

If a full year isn't important in your book, then why the **** do you take Tua's one excellent partial season, out of three, as meaningful?

Right, and Foles did it in his 2nd year in the league.

"cbrad wrote:

How many times do I have to answer the same question? Again, read my posts. It's the trajectory from rookie to year 3. This isn't just an isolated elite season after 5-10 years. This is typical of the breakout season many elite QBs have in year 3 or 4, at least statistically. Of course, as I said, it's also consistent with an eventual flop. So we'll see. But there's serious reason to get excited about possibly having landed an elite QB given what we've seen of Tua so far. More data starting tomorrow!

Right. Foles did it in year two. If Foles isn't meaningful, then neither is Tua.

Just because you want Tua to be meaningful doesn't make it so.

"cbrad wrote:

This is typical of the breakout season many elite QBs have in year 3 or 4, at least statistically. Of course, as I said, it's also consistent with an eventual flop.

Ha Ha! Thx, man. That's super helpful. Good stuff.

"resnor wrote:

Right. Foles did it in year two. If Foles isn't meaningful, then neither is Tua.

Just because you want Tua to be meaningful doesn't make it so.

Can't believe your response. Let's say I told you that based on historical data there's a 99% chance you'll die if you jump off a particular building. Using your logic here, you'd say that's a meaningless statistic as long as you can point to one example where the person survived lol!

Probabilities matter. NEVER has anyone had 5-10 years of average-ish play then turned to sustained elite play. There are at least a few cases where QBs turned elite after a breakout year in year 3 (Brees and Young are best examples), and some famous ones in year 2 (Peyton is the best example, the anti-Foles), and across all QBs the average time performance begins to plateau is at around 3-4 years (much variation of course, but that's the average) so it's meaningful that you see improvement to a high level of play by then. Further, there are very few QBs who had one elite season in year 3-4 after two mediocre ones, so the probability of ending elite in this case isn't that low. I don't know the exact probabilities, but I'm guessing maybe 25% or so given how few do this? It's not "meaningless".

"resnor wrote:

Listen...if the Dolphins had no concerns then they would give Tua whatever he wants, and not have this hanging over the season. It's really that simple.

The only reason to not have this done months ago is if you have questions and concerns.

'kay.

"resnor wrote:

I didn't say the scheme required that. I've said that Tua does that. Tua has said he does it, and he "no looks them", and other tweets have said he does it. Clearly Tua can throw to spots better than Bridgewater. It's exactly consistent with what I just ****ing said. Why do you feel the need to argue against nothing, dude?

My problem isn't that Tua can complete passes to spots. My concern is that Tua is throwing to his predetermined spot whether a receiver is going to be there or not. My concern is that Tua is openly stating that he really isn't going through progressions, he's staying locked in a receiver to try to draw defenders so he can "no look them" in there. These things really do explain some of the struggles we saw even during last season, which was a real Jekyll and Hyde situation anyways.

Yes, I think Tua is better at that **** than Bridgewater. I don't know how many times I've said it. You guys think that I think that Tua is dog**** so you are argue everything friggin thing I say. You aren't even trying to understand the posts you're reading.

Jesus, the "just throwing to spots" nonsense was debunked, by me, last season.

Please find the exact quote from last season where Tua claimed he really isn't going through progressions on a regular basis. Does he sometimes do the no look and not confirm before throwing? Yes. Does he do it often. No.

"resnor wrote:

I do understand that. And he is throwing to that spot that he determined presnap, even if the receiver is not going to be there, or there are multiple defenders, at least according to Shurfield.

Jesus Christ......no, no, no, no, no......

Find me the EXACT QUOTE where Sherfield claims the spot that Tua throws to is determined pre-snap. Find it. I dare you. And, it better F'n mention PRE-SNAP. Find it or stop F'n bringing it up.

Aged like MILK son!

"defenses figured him out"

Herbert can suck Tua's nuts.

One game doesn't mean much. Let things play out before the victory parade.

"Fireland wrote:

"defenses figured him out"

Only throws to spots.