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Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Newmpiece, Mar 25, 2015.
ThAt was more of a OT issue no?
In what league, the NCAA? Pouncey was playing for the Gators in 2007. College.
We need at least one really good guard without a doubt. Dallas Thomas is a big pile of excrement and any plan that involves him as starter in any position on the line is fatally flawed. How is Thill gonna hit a deep throw if he doesn't even get the time to set up?
With that in mind though we need skill position guys first and foremost. I think we should be looking at Receiver, Corner/Safety or RB only at that pick at 14. Period. And I hope that if the guys they have the most interest in are no longer there they can trade back and maybe reclaim that 3rd rounder we lost.
That would be a great place to pick up a guard.
On the other hand, no playoffs no more Philbin??....hehehe
Seriously, that's a bit of a simplistic way of looking at things... every year we wonder about someone who is gonna 'break' out...Jarvis Landry was an afterthought a year ago... Reshad Jones was the same a few years ago... Vernon had a nice 2013 but there was concern whether he could carry that into 2014... Maybe this is Turner's time to 'break' out...at least hopefully...
I'd like to see an establish OG or a high draft pick that works out for us a OG, but if Turner has that breakout year, I'll take that too...
EDIT: Even I don't have much hope that Thomas will come thru, but in fairness the same could be said about him..
Tell that to the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboy model is looking pretty good. A perennial 8-8 team w/a good QB, RB, WR/TE, and below average offensive line. This got their QB killed and lead to inconsistently on offense. Suddenly, they invest heavily into offensive line and go 12-4. Sound familiar? That's the Miami Dolphins offense, basically. With a little less talent.
I understand the fans don't want another lineman. I wish this organization took the offensive line more seriously years ago, so we could invest in other positions. Frankly, Miami should of considered drafting Billy Turner (no trade up, that was dumb) and moving up to get Trae Turner too. But Miami, short sighted as always, thought Shelly Smith could be serviceable.
If any lineman is worthwhile at #14, it's La'el Collins. The flexibility to push inside and be groomed at LT is very valuable to a team that needs immediate help at LG and has an injury prone LT. Ryan Tannehill has had to battle offensive line problems his whole career thus far. And his pocket awareness isn't the stuff of legend either. Investing in OL in round 1 is an investment into our franchise QB, who is likely to receive a 100 million dollar contract soon. We may not have the best RB/WR/TE weapons, but we can maximize our offenses ability by winning in the trenches week in and out.
We already have 3 1st round picks on our Oline. When is enough, enough? It's time for the other Oline players to step up or we need a new coaching staff.
Their biggest change was in philosophy. They focused more on balance and their run game instead of relying on Romo. Their YPC actually went down from the previous season so it's hard to say that improved blocking is what made their run game more dominant. In reality it was shift in focus and increased commitment to the run game. That's the lesson Miami should take. They should take Gordon in the draft and sign Mathis at G, then stick to the run game with Gordon and Miller and use RT's excellent play action game and his ability in the read option to terrorize defenses.
Everybody wants a great OL, but those are rarely built by throwing first round picks at it. Building an OL is more about chemistry than raw talent. So for your Gs use later picks you can develop and save your early picks for positions that require more raw talent.
All year long I wished we had another back, it could easily have meant another 2-3 wins. Very few teams really stopped the run, it kinda stopped itself bc Miller runs hot after about 15 carries. Add another good back, lean more on the run and play action, offense improves dramatically.
We looked pretty good with moreno! But our online wasn't dinged up yet! You have to take a game changer in the first and hit on interior linemen in the middle rounds!
Sent from my 6+
Our collective guards last season allowed 19 sacks,18 QB hits,and 65 QB hurries
Don't guards have to pass protect on as many snaps as the OTs?
Adding an All-Pro guard certainly helped them accomplish that.
True but Martin actually scored lower in run blocking then their previous guard did.
We have Turner coming into fill the right side probably. Looked pretty good in his short stint for a 'raw' guy. There's an abundance of good guards in the draft this year. We also don't have Ireland drafting OL anymore. Look at guys like Ali Marpet and Josue Matias who would be good fits for us at LG.
I doubt everyone else agrees with PFF on that. He was a rookie All-Pro for gawdsake. How often does that happen? He also tied for 3rd best guard in Pass Blocking Efficiency. Since you want to go by PFF, Martin had their 2nd best guard pass blocking grade. He was a huge upgrade over Bernardeau. Huge.
Matias is not a zone blocking guard fit IMO. He'd be a terrible choice. I do not see an abundance of guards who would fit a zone scheme.
And how does his pass blocking score help the run blocking which is what we were talking about. There are an abundance of guards and LT to guard converts in this draft who will fit just fine. This whole bullcrap of Martin propelling Dallas into the playoffs is bad mumbo jumbo that needs to stop. Dallas didn't even draft him with the intent to be a guard. He was drafted to be a RT originally. We've got a 1st round LT, 1st round C and a 1st round RT and the NFL has proven time and time again that you can find guards all over the place. Keep building through the draft but you don't have to go first round for every damn position on the line.
Wait, we drafted Brandon Albert? Or are you referring to Jake Long, who we drafted 7 years ago and is no longer with the team?
And you're wrong about Martin, on every level. He was always a G/T tweener. And he did a phenomenal job blocking, run and pass. Which is the ****ing point.... Both are required in the NFL... Miami needs to protect Ryan Tannehill. For once in his career. And Miami needs insurance at LT for an injury prone Albert, which is another point you're neglecting. A lot of fans didn't want Lane Johnson in 2013 because they didn't see the point in investing more picks into the oline... RT17 got his head ripped off all year.
Miami could do plenty worse than La'el Collins at 14...
He is talking about Albert being a 1st round pick. No the team didn't draft him but he is another 1st round pick on this offensive line.
And? We didn't draft him. His draft status is irrelevant. Frankly, the idea of passing on a prospect because we drafted a similar position is asinine. We drafted a DB/LB/DL in round 1... We shouldn't draft another DB/LB/DL in round 1... What? We drafted Dion Jordan's useless *** in round 1 a few years back and Vernon the year prior in round 3. Vic Beasley is available at 14, do we pass on him for that reason? No...
IMO the philosophy change was the key. I believe that the outcome would have been the same if the philosophy changed and Martin had been dinged up for the year and couldn't play.
The notion that the success of the season hinges on the pass blocking, and the acquisition of someone to help with it, falls flat when one considers that:
1) frequency of QB pressure is weakly correlated with offensive passing game performance across the NFL,
2) the Dolphins' QB wasn't pressured significantly more often than the average QB in the league in 2014,
3) the Dolphins' QB wasn't sacked significantly more than the average QB in the league in 2014, and
4) the performance of the Dolphins' pass offense was weakly correlated with the number of sacks it surrendered on a game-by-game basis in 2014.
Hopefully the folks running the team aren't making personnel decisions on the basis of similarly weakly supported notions.
That's why I don't get the insistence that drafting a 1st round G was the reason Dallas' record improved. There's no evidence that the OL was better than the previous year. There's no reason to believe the G play was better other than the G had more name recognition so he made the probowl. Yet some fans want to ignore that and just claim that the better record must be b/c they drafted a 1st round G.
How am I wrong about Martin. Go back and check every article. Guard was always supposed to be temporary for him. Dallas drafted him with the intent that he was going to replace Free as their RT. I'm not even going to get into how stupid it is to spend the 14th pick of the draft as 'insurance'. The team finally got their heads out of their behinds and realized that Jason Fox should have been the backup all along and re-signed him for that purpose. If the teams that worried about Albert then you DRAFT his replacement and get rid of him. You don't piss around with 'what if's' when drafting.
The fact of the matter is that right now we've got high investments in 3 OL via draft picks and salary cap. We got better value in Turner coming in at RG most likely and he looks like he'll be quite the beast at RG one day. We have ONE hole to fill with the starters. You don't need to blow 14 on it when you can fill quite easily fill it in the 2nd/3rd rounds. Especially when your still staring at empty starting WR, LB and CB spots. This team needs to start hitting on it's skill picks in the first or were never going to get over the hump. Know who else was rated damn highly this past season? Joel Bitonio 2nd round (and thought of as a bit of a reach), Brandon Linder found near the back end of the 3rd round. Hate to use PFF.....but of their top 10 guards only 2 were drafted in the first.
And again...........before Albert went down and we started flipping people all over the place this line gave up 17 sacks in the first 8 games. We get Albert back, we get Pouncey back at Center, We get Turner in at RG and James back to RT. Focus on depth and fixing that LG spot. You just don't need 14 to do it.
Before Albert went down, the O-line was good. Albert goes down a lot though. He's been injured almost every year for the last 4 years of his career. He's 30 years old coming off an ACL injury. Drafting Collins would not only give us a starter at LG, but a future LT too. A significantly cheaper LT too, since you mentioned the cap. So in the event that an injury prone player gets injured, it doesn't ruin our season. Your logic is why Miami drafted Dion Jordan over Lane Johnson. A terrible decision, short term and probably long term. Eagles will likely have both players next year after we cut Jordan for failing to develop pass rush ability.
And I love how easily you dismiss the ability to acquire a G... Like we haven't tried everyone and anyone over the last decade at RG/LG. G is just as big of a hole as LB or DB. There are no LB's worth #14 for sure and I don't think there's a CB worth #14 either.
None of us know if Turner will win the job. It is expected, but not assured. The front office is betting on developing players on the OL. I will keep my fingers crossed.
There is no reason to believe Martin made the pro bowl just on name recognition. He was top 3 among guards in pass blocking. He was not that high just because of his name. He also was named to the All-Pro team, which means he was one of the top 2 at his position. He was not the only reason Dallas improved, but he did contribute significantly.
Whether or not he was drafted to play guard or to play tackle is irrelevant. He was drafted to improve the OL and he did do that. His pass blocking deserves to be in the discussion because it is as equally important as run blocking. I do not think anyone believes Martin single-handedly propelled Dallas into the playoffs, but an improved line did play an important part.
He was sacked tied for the 3rd most times. The % of snaps in which he was pressured, 38.4%, was 6th most. Those may be insignificant to you.
As for your #1 notion, the QBs most frequently pressured were Russell Wilson, Josh McCown, Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Tannehill. That group includes one top QB.
The least often pressured QBs were Peyton Manning, Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo and Tom Brady. That group includes 5 of the top QBs.
I don't get this at all. First of all, semantically speaking, I don't see anyone saying that THE one and only reason that Dallas improved was Zack Martin, but the evidence suggests that he certainly was a big PART of the overall improvement.
Give the guy some credit, he was a first team all-pro. To say that he got there on name recognition is just silly. Evidence of his excellent play? Stellar pass blocking efficiency and the Dallas running game actually improving in 2014 by a whopping 850 yards over 2013, 2354 yards in 2014 as compared to 1504 in 2013. If you watched Dallas play, not only were the announcers raving about Martin's play but you could see it for yourself- his pass pro was excellent and he was doing his part and then some in the running game,a fantastic run blocker. I mean, the dude was excellent, it wasn't by accident or or reputation (a mid 1st rd draft pick rookie's reputation?) that he was not just a Pro Bowler, but a first team All-Pro. He was the best of the best.
Also, I think that he was actually drafted to play Guard, Dallas had Tyron Smith and Doug Free at Tackle. Personally I think that he would have thrived at either position- he was my first choice last year for our 1st rd pick, short arms (one inch shorter than 6-7 Taylor Lewan?) be damned. I'd draft him this year at #14 in a heartbeat if I could, a fantastic Guard/Tackle combo with the OL versatility that we desperately need, this year's closest version imo is La'el Collins. Zack Martin is a great player deserving of his all-pro recognition and was a great pick by the Cowboys, personally I don't think that there's any question about it. And yes, Zack Martin had a lot to do with the Cowboy's improvement, jmho.
Hopefully the FO isn't listening to stat monkeys, because it was evident in the last two years that not only were pass protection breakdowns a problem, but pass pro failure at critical junctures (Buffalo and Baltimore) were major contributing factors to us losing games. How do your stats account for not only the frequency of pass protection breakdowns, but how often they happen at critical junctures and how those critical failures effect the outcome of the games?
If I present a statistic that supports your belief (bolded above), what will that mean to you? Will you then find your belief to be "confirmed," or will you lend no credence to the statistic simply because it's a "stat"?
I would say that far and away the biggest reason that Dallas' record improved is that they ran a ton more and passed a lot less. That protected their poor defense. They did that even though they ran less efficiently than the year before. I believe that if they'd done that alone and Martin had not played that their record would have been identical. So I do not agree that Martin was a big part of their turn around.
I was pretty pissed when Dallas snagged him RIGHT in front of us...I was counting on that dipsh*t drafting Johnny Football.
Generally speaking I don't have a problem with stats, they're useful- to a degree. The great irony with you is that you're convinced that eyeballs lie and the stats tell the tale, while in reality stats can be manipulated and cherry picked in an attempt to support a hypothesis- and quite frankly that's you're specialty, as evidenced in the Wallace/Tannehill conversation with a nearly ubiiquitous reference to Pittsburgh 2012 on your part- because you had to. "Yes, but in 2012"... Previous threads to show the near interchangeability of receivers, only QBs matter, etc. Do you have anything to offer except statistics? It's the same story with you, just a different user name now.
As to your question, probably not. My beliefs are confirmed by what I've seen and the combined beliefs of the experts, the only opinions and eyeballs that you believe warrant any consideration. Look at what the experts have to say about Zack Martin, maybe you'll learn something above and beyond having your head buried in a stat book.
Maybe the Cowboys ran the ball a lot more because they did it so well, so well in fact that teams knew that they were going to run it and often couldn't stop them? Maybe the addition of a rookie Guard who turned out to be a first team all-pro helped them in that cause? Maybe Zack Martin played so well as a rookie that he actually did deserve to be named a first team all-pro? Maybe since the Cowboys running game became their bread and butter they lost some of the element of surprise and teams were more prone to stack the box, and even so they averaged 4.6 yards per carry and their leading rusher came close to 2,000 yards?
The fact is that their YPC was worse than last year. They ran more b/c they committed to the run despite not doing it as well.
Which is exactly what Lazor should be doing, more running. Our pass pro was fine when the run was a viable threat, especially prior to Albert's injury. It was only after Detroit, and when the offense became more one dimensional that the pass pro became a major issue.
The Dallas OL is good enough they can run well even when the other team loads up to stop the run. Miami's OL is sufficient enough only when there is an equally good passing threat. You want Lazor to run more but do not want the OL to get better guards?
The Dolphins were sacked 10th most in the league as a team, and again, not significantly different from the league average. The percentage of pressures also wasn't significantly different from the league average because there isn't a great deal of variation across the league in that area.
You pick the statistic by which to measure those QBs as, as you say, "top," and I'll tell you its correlation with the frequency of pressure. That correlation won't be strong.
How many of the 9 teams that allowed more sacks, made the playoffs?
As for the measure of "top" you know very well what I meant. Of those 12 QBs, the 6 who faced the highest pct of pressure and the 6 that faced the lowest pct of pressure, which 6 are widely considered the most successful QBs in the league? Whether one goes by individual stats or team success. The one really good QB not mentioned is Flacco and he faced the 11th lowest pct of pressure. I inadvertently left out Eli who was tied with Brady for 6th lowest pct of pressure. Just looking at the list of QBs by pressure pct and it is pretty obvious that among QBs taking their team to the playoffs, an extremely high pct of those QBs were on the low end of pct of snaps where they faced pressure. You can tell me the correlation is not strong all you like, but I see otherwise.
You can tell me anything you like. How about show the source of the info that you are using to arrive at your conclusion?
You can say there is no significant difference all you like, but who decided that you get to decide how much difference is significant?
Peyton pct pressure was 21.5%. Dalton was 25%. Rodgers was 26.5%. Big Ben was 27.3%. Romo was 28.5%. Brady and Eli were 28.7%
Wilson was 46%. McCown was 43.2%. Geno was 40.1%. Bridgewater was 39.9%. Fitzpatrick was 38.6%. Tannehill was 38.4%
You may find those pct differences to not be a great deal of variation, but that does not make it true.
Given that other variables can drive the bus on their performance, the correlation between sacks and wins would be the best measure of that relationship.
Given that other variables can drive the bus on their performance, the correlation between pressure and performance would be the best measure of that relationship, as well.