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No one is going to trade up to our # 1 pick - View Trade Value

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by BALLS DEEP, Dec 10, 2007.

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  1. BALLS DEEP

    BALLS DEEP New Member

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    I've linked the draft pick values. The reason that no one trades up for the # 1 pick is the shear overwhelming cost. The top pick is worth 3000 points. Let's just say that whoever is #5 wants to get our pick from us, they would need to give us their #1 (1700 points), their #2 (530 points), OH JUST FORGET IT, the value of their ENTIRE DRAFT THIS YEAR is 2,653. If the Dolphins give in and take less for it THEY ARE MORONS.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670

    We need to take McFadden and trade Ronnie Brown (due a new contract this off season) for a quality DE, LB, WR, or CB.
     
  2. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    I agree while I like Ronnie even this year I saw nothing that would prevent me from making that move, hes going to want BIG money, we could get a first round pick for him as well and grab a 3 First round players with our picks

    RB,QB,DE in the first round (our 32 becomes a first really)

    at worst a second.. But we have to make that move Prior to Draft day, and honestly I hope a new Head Coach and staff are in place prior to the draft this is the year our draft means the most...
     
  3. dont fumble

    dont fumble Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The value chart was installed before the salary cap area, I don't think it should be a measurement anymore. The Cowboys two first round picks plus their second round pick will be around 1500 to 1800 points. I don't think this would be bad trade for us.
     
  4. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And we would avoid the headache of trying to pay the #1 pick the extortion that they demand...

    3 #1's and a #2 would go along way toward injecting some talent into this roster.
     
  5. ac_lanham

    ac_lanham Junior Member

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    I doubt we'd get a first for Ronnie Brown considering the ACL tear. He's like Ricky Williams, worth more to us than any other team.
     
  6. Whitedolphin54

    Whitedolphin54 From the land of legends Luxury Box

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    Good post, but there is always an idiot to trade up. It never ceases to amaze me, that there is always someone who is a mug.
     
  7. lbmclean_sj

    lbmclean_sj New Member

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    if every GM perceived the top 5 or so guys to have the same grades, then the value chart would be somewhat meaningless. to put it another way, if I had the first pick and I figured that the fifth best guy was only slightly less talented than the first, then all things considered I would accept much less than the chart shows

    why not? you pay alot less money for a similar talent and get an extra first day pick to boot

    it is a guideline, a starting point

    also the money that has to be paid these guys kinda devaules the picks
     
  8. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Senior Member

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    Since when is Ronnie due a new contract? He is signed through 2009. Still two more full seasons left.
     
  9. billsfaninpeace

    billsfaninpeace New Member

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    No one is going to give you "Value" That does not mean you will not get a trade up.

    There is no telling DAL might offer their 2 firsts this year and a 1st next year
     
  10. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    Years four is the break-even point in a six year rookie deal. Most successful organizations will lockup good young talent before they reach this point.
     
  11. Nublar7

    Nublar7 Senior Member

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    Ronnie is coming off an ACL tear, they won't talk a new contract at this point. New contract talks will start in the Spring of 2009 before his final season.
     
  12. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    Agreed, the ACL tear changes everything. However the clock (on his rookie deal keeps running), Cam and Randy need to make a executive decision.

    If Ronnie comes back full tilt (at the end of a standard two year rehab), would he even want to resign with a low-to-mid tier franchise?
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Which is one of the reasons drafting McFadden would make sense, or if not McFadden, then maybe a RB that slips down the draft board.

    Or if we trade with Dallas, we could try to have Barber thrown into the trade.

    Mix up Marion Barber with Marion Butts...
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2007
  14. magnum

    magnum New Member

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    Hopfully, Jerry Jones will prove you wrong. I would hate for New England to draft DMAC with the 2nd pick
     
  15. EdNorton

    EdNorton New Member

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    Rick Spielman on line 1:lol:
     
  16. Finominal

    Finominal New Member

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    I am on board with the fear that New England ends up with the top friggin talent in this years draft. How the hell are they picking in the top ten this year??? There has got to be a Jerry Jones character out there that just does not want to see McFadden on the Patriots. There’s still a lot of football left this year for other teams out there and a couple of teams that are a player or two away from getting to the big game. Also we still have the showcase bowl games, Mel Kiper’s hype industry gearing up and the combine to create the can’t miss beast and phenom at the top of the draft. Nothing is settled right now. Miami is definitely a huge player in all that’s coming, and that, for one thing this miserable season, is a good thing for us.
     
  17. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    Cowboys have an abundance of good young players

    Two 1st picks plus Marcus Spears and/or Roy Williams.......

    Can dream can't I?
     
  18. Bonedoc7777

    Bonedoc7777 New Member

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    cowboys would be a good trade if we recieved there two ones, there two and how about marion barber for RB depth since they are going to take mcfadden, the story is jones loves him
     
  19. nenothtu

    nenothtu New Member

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    I would also hate to see McFadden go to the Jets. I'd hate to have to face him AND Lynch for the next 10 years.
     
  20. nenothtu

    nenothtu New Member

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    Where is SF's first pick since the scumbags own their top pick??
     
  21. mbsinmisc

    mbsinmisc Season Ticket Holder

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    Ronnie will not be at full strength next year. If he tries to play too soon, he might end his career. I would not draft McFadden, great player, fungible position. I would take less than full value for the #1. Mueller is pretty slick, I bet he moves out of that pick. Dallas' 2 firsts and their second would be awesome.
     
  22. Carabinieri44

    Carabinieri44 New Member

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    i like the idea of getting Dallas's two first round picks, their 2nd, and Marion Barber.

    but i imagine Dallas is gonna have probably like, the 21st and 29th pick....meaning we'd have to go offense. Early Doucet and Fred Davis. if we go defense in the 1st, itd have to be Dorsey/Long/Laurinitis/Connor, or wait til the later rounds. this past weekend proved our offense is more embarassing. add a few WRs, an OL to block, a TE to catch, Ronnie Brown back....we should be good.
     
  23. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Member

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    Their 2 #1's this year and their 2nd
    Plus their #1 next year and their 2nd

    This will help them land McFadden, and tho it still looks like they rob the Fins with that move . . . in actuallity it would be a MUST trade for Miami.

    Don't go by the value chart . . . especially when gauging the #1 pick . . . I honestly believe Miami will trade out of this pick . . . and I think they will get decent value for it as well.

    This still depends on combines and whatever . . . but lets say McFadden throws a 4.3 40, and shows unbelieveable strength and great skills in the workout . . . he will coveted by several teams (Jets, Boys, etc.) and those teams (going back to my original post) may be more enticed to do the deal knowing New England would be on the clock to probably take him with the next pick.

    Dorsey is the wild card, if he has a great bowl game and good combine, we may just press our luck and take him, its not like we couldn't use him . . . he is a safe pick (tho injuries scare me)
     
  24. NaboCane

    NaboCane Banned

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    i don't necessarily care about value as much as i know that we HAVE TO trade down this draft.

    if we get just dallas' 1's for instance, we could get otah and any lineman among cherilus, clady or long and fix our ol overnight.

    and with two 2nds, still have enough ammo to take a brilliant wr...or linebacker, or corner, or defensive lineman...
     
  25. Finatic8480

    Finatic8480 New Member

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    It is becoming real hard to believe Mueller would pass on Mcfadden, im sorry. Mueller said in an interview he was thinking of taking Peterson. So I believe Mueller will take Mcfadden if he is there, and it wouldn't be the first time he take a RB, while having a very good RB already on the team.

    I personally think Dorsey wont get drafted first overall and neither will Long and i defitnetly dont think neither Brohm or Ryan go 1st overall. My personal opinion is Miami takes Mcfadden unless Jerry Jones gives up his entire Draft to us and jones might just be crazy enough to do it
     
  26. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Member

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    Hey Nabo . . . . yes we can end up on the short end of the stick on the value chart and the trade would still have to be done . . . .

    However, 2 #1's is NOT enough . . . . for Miami to do this trade . . . the floor (bare minimum . . . which still wont be enuff IMO) would be the 2 #1's and the #1 for 2009. Dallas is going to have a late 20's or possibly a pick in the 30's . . . and the Browns are looking like their pick is going to be in the 20's as well . . .


    You don't give up #1 overall for #21 and #31 . . . that is plain stupid . . . I much rather take McFadden and run with him and Ronnie. This team needs talent, we have gotten the short end of the stick with value for too long . . . and tho the points may not add up for us in a trade . . . we have to get more than what u are suggesting.

    Seriously if we can get the 2 1's, the 2, the 1 for 09 and the 2 for 09 . . . . u are looking at 8 picks in the top 2 rounds between 08 and 09 . . . that would be substantial for this team. It sounds like a lot, but come draft time, McFadden may prove to be "worth it" . . . especially with the success of AP this season . . . and McFadden is quicker than Peterson as well.
     
  27. Finatic8480

    Finatic8480 New Member

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    Look everyone is forgetting that whoever is our GM is gonna want a player who can come in and contribute immediately. Dolfans will abandon this team if we dont take Mcfadden, who gives us the best chance to immediately fix this team. A backfield of Brown and Mcfadden would be amazing. Look at the Vikings. Expect to also see a QB to come out of this draft. Cleo Lemon and Green will both be gone and Beck has struggled alot these last two games and is not ready clearly. I personally would love to see Brennan who could probably slip to the third or second round. We could also possibly see a Veteran
    QB come in. This team is gonna have an awesome cap next year. Green will be gone, Traylor and Thomas might retire and I still think we trade JT.
     
  28. #1dolphinsfan

    #1dolphinsfan New Member

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    I think we should Keep Ronnie Brown Draft an OL and trade our number 1 pick to the bengals for there Number one pick and Chad Johnson
     
  29. #1dolphinsfan

    #1dolphinsfan New Member

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    Dallas 2 firsts and there would be really kool but i dont think they would give that up
     
  30. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Plus if we trade JT, we will have more to work with, as well as potentially some Compensatory picks as well.

    Pure value, the #1 for #24 and maybe #31, it is not a great trade, but for us, it might make sense especially if we pick up a 3rd this year and a 2nd next year as well.

    For us, the value would be in the bodies we acquire, not so much the position of the picks in the first round, as long as we are making multiple picks in the first round it will work out for us.
     
  31. Mr.Majestik

    Mr.Majestik New Member

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    You don't build a champion around a running back

    You're wrong, fans will abandon this team if we draft a running back with the top overall pick when we've got a Pro Bowl-caliber back on the roster. You don't build a team with a running back, and you certainly don't build a team with a running back in the top five, let alone the #1 overall selection. That is plain stupidity. Running back is a plug-in-and-play position. You can get Hall of Fame running backs in any round of the draft. Did O.J. Simpson turn the Bills into a contender? Did George Rogers do so for the Saints? Eric Dickerson had probably the greatest start to a career any running back had ever had, he was truly a once-in-a-generation talent, and the Rams were more than willing to get rid of him four-years later. Marshall Faulk was sent packing by Bill Polian in Indy because he knew Faulk could be easily replaced, and he was.

    You build football teams from the lines back and the middle out. You don't use high draft picks on positions of abundance, or positions with poor career longevity. Look at Ki-Jana Carter for example. He was the first player taken, a running back, and the first time he steps on the field he suffers what was essentially a career-ending injury. The Bengals could of had Curtis Martin in the third-round, or Terrell Davis in the fifth-round. There is a big difference in losing the first overall pick to an injury, and a fifth-rounder. The Saints traded their entire draft for Ricky Williams, but drafted a far more productive back with the 23rd pick in the draft just two years later. Tell me where the value is in drafting running backs early unless you're already a contender? We drafted Ronnie Brown with the second-overall pick, the Bears took Cedric "Superbust" Benson with the fourth pick, the Dolphins, and Bears could of had Frank Gore and Marion Barber in the third, or fourth-rounds.

    Notice how teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers never seem to spend a high draft pick on a running back, but always lead the league in rushing, and defense because they spend all of their first and second-round picks on linemen--Alan Faneca, Marvel Smith, Kendall Simmons, Casey Hampton, etc. Notice how the Patriots built their team with linemen with first and second-round picks--Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Matt Light, Marquise Hill (tragically deceased), Logan Mankins, and Adrian Klemm. The Patriots won two Super Bowls with scrub running backs, and a third with a Pro Bowl guy on the downside of his career obtained for a second-round pick. How many Super Bowls did the Niners, Redskins and Giants win with cast-offs, and low-draft picks at the running back position? Wendell Tyler, Roger Craig and Ricky Watters. I doubt I need to go on. How many Super Bowls did Earl Campbell, Bo Jackson, Ki-Jana Carter, George Rogers, O.J. Simpson, Billy Sims, etc, win for their franchises? Zero.

    P.S. Darren McFadden is not Adrian Peterson, and since a mediocrity like Chester Taylor is averaging a full 1.3 ypc higher than the league average running behind that Vikings offensive line, perhaps we should not be writing of Adrian Peterson in such exalted tones. Someone please tell me how much better the Miami Dolphins would be with Adrian Peterson in the backfield? And if Ronnie Brown were running behind that offensive line in Minnesota, how much closer to AP's average would he get? I'm willing to bet at least half a yard.
     
  32. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And Faulk went to the Rams and they won a super bowl.

    Simpson was on an awful bills team and they at least made the playoffs.

    Ditto Billy Sims.

    The Colts traded Faulk and then drafted Edgerin James.

    Did Emmitt smith turn the Cowboys into perenial super bowl winners?

    Point being, a team does need a dominant back to even make the playoffs, Campbell transformed the Oilers into contenders, Rogers never did, the saints of that era were super bad though.

    The patriots to be fair, have not needed a great RB, but they are the exception, not the rule.

    They have a dominate QB, a once in a ten year span QB.
     
  33. Mr.Majestik

    Mr.Majestik New Member

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    Patriots are too smart for that.

    Why would the Patriots draft Darren McFadden? Why? They don't run the ball, and they already have a first-round talent on the roster in Laurence Maroney. Belicheck wouldn't spend a high pick on a running back because he's smart enough to know that it doesn't give him value. If he doesn't like Maroney, he can trade back and get a very good running back at the end of the first, or in the second, or third for that matter. Offense is not a Patriot need. They're going to set a record for most points scored in a season, but their defense is a definite need, and if the Patriots are going to have a top five pick to spend, it'll be on a defensive lineman, DB, or LB, they're likely to lose Asante Samuel, Rosevelt Colvin is coming off of a significant injury, and they've got age throughout the middle of the defense with Bruschi, Seau, and Harrison nearing the end. The Patriots will load up on defense.

    And don't count on us being able to trade the top overall pick. It rarely happens. The fact is the top pick in the draft is not a good value pick, whatever position you draft. It's a lot of money given to a player that is far more likely to be a bust then a success--the likes of John Elway, Troy Aikman, Bruce Smith, Orlando Pace and Carson Palmer are far outweighed by the likes of Alex Smith, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Ki-Jana Carter, Courtney Brown, David Carr, Steve Emtman and Jeff George, to name only a few.
     
  34. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    The front four allows the pats to play old linebackers for years now.

    On the need for a good Dline I can agree with you on.


    Sadly true, the last "great" #1 was Peyton Manning and that was ten years ago, Smith, Carter, Emtman, C. Brown all have had either injury problems or just haven't played very well.

    The #1 overall Qb's have been the worst offenders, followed by Wr's.

    Carter was the last #1 at Rb, and he was injured quickly.
     
  35. Mr.Majestik

    Mr.Majestik New Member

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    Re:

    The Bills made the playoffs ONCE in Simpson's nine years with the team. They won only 17 games over a six-year span during Simpson's career. And you think he was a draft pick well spent? The player taken immediately after him, George Kunz, was a Hall of Fame-caliber left tackle who played at a Pro Bowl level a lot longer than Simpson. It would have made more sense for a rebuilding franchise like the Bills to take Kunz first, and a less brilliant, but still top-flight running back like Calvin Hill, or Mercury Morris, later, or perhaps waited until more of the pieces were in place before drafting a John Riggins, or John Brockington a year, or two later. Pro Bowl-caliber running backs are available in every draft, and there is no such thing as a "once in a generation" running back. We heard all that crap two years ago when Reggie Bush came out, an damn if the Texans didn't make the correct decision passing up the running back for the lineman. Damn if the Browns didn't make the correct decision passing on Peterson to get Joe Thomas, the guy is already playing at a Pro Bowl level at LT.

    It's interesting you bring up Faulk, since he proves the point that a team doesn't need to spend a top five pick on a running back to get a franchise player. He was obtained for a second-round pick if my memory serves correctly. The Rams got a Super Bowl championship for a second-round pick. The Colts spent the second-overall pick and the tens of millions that went with it, and they were 32-48 in Faulk's five years with the team.

    Emmit Smith was drafted 17th, not first overall. How about Blair Thomas? He was taken with the second pick that year with Cortez Kennedy, and Richmond Webb still on the board! You never take a running back over a potential Pro Bowl lineman. It makes no sense.

    And how can you say the Patriots are the exception to the rule? Look at those Super Bowl champion Giant, Niner and Redskin teams, they won Super Bowls with street free agents, aging vets acquired in trades, or low draft picks as their starting backs. The Broncos won two Super Bowls with a fifth-round pick as their star running back. The Packers won a Super Bowl with fifth-round pick Dorsey Levens running the ball. The Rams won with a second-round trade for Faulk. Joseph Addai was the 30th player taken last year. The team they played in the Super Bowl, the Bears, had a running back taken with the fourth overall pick. Compare the values! The exception is the Super Bowl champion that spent a high draft pick on a running back, I know of only three--Tony Dorsett with the Cowboys, Walter Payton with the Bears, and Jamal Lewis with the Ravens. Super Bowl champions have often had highly drafted running backs on their rosters when they've won Super Bowls-- Joe Washington, John Riggins and George Rogers with the Redskins, Ottis Anderson with the Giants, and Faulk with the Rams, but those players were all reclaimation projects obtained for nickels on the dollar, and low draft picks.
     
  36. BALLS DEEP

    BALLS DEEP New Member

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    It wouldn't if it meant drafting in the top ten. However, the Cowboys will be picking north of 25 *they've lost one game so far). That's a really big deal as a lot of good players will be gone. Move back possibly 24 picks just to get another second rounder which will be a late second rounder anyways? I'm glad you're not the GM (no offense). Best case scenario for the Cowboys to get swap our pick would be this years #1 and # 2 and a conditional deal that calls for next years #1 unless they finish 8-8 or worse and then switches to their next year #2.
     
  37. BALLS DEEP

    BALLS DEEP New Member

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    When was the last time you saw someone do it then for the top pick? The only thing I remember is the Eli Manning thing and they swapped out players after San Diego picked (I still have a bad taste in my mouth for that thing. Eli is a spoiled little brat). It hasn't been done in this decade I know that.
     
  38. Kdawg954

    Kdawg954 Member

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    Atlanta also did it with Mike Vick in 2001.

    They traded with the Chargers . . . and San Diego picked up Tomlinson.

    The key here is that it was the #1 for the #5 . . . so ATL only had to give up a 2nd, a 3rd and Tim Dwight.

    If we were to trade with Dallas . . . your talking about a mid 20's pick (the Cleveland pick) and possibly the 31st pick from Dallas. So that definitely isn't enough. If we had the 5th pick . . . it wouldn't be enough. But Dallas knows that . . . and if they really want McFadden, they know that 1st rounder from 09 (also more than likely a late pick) would definitely be required in addition to more.

    Sounds unreasonable, but like I said, if they fall in love w/ a player, and feel he is that missing piece . . . than it is possible to due the trade.
     
  39. gandalfin

    gandalfin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    A most compelling argument.
     
  40. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    And you seem to be mixing your argument, is it "enough" for that high pick Rb to lead their team to the play offs? Or must they win a SB as well? If they win a SB with another team, does that vindicate the pick?

    And Riggins? He was a free agent siginging, the "Hogs" came later.

    Simpson was the only thing that made the Bills franchise even watchable, Morris was more of an add on truth be told, interesting that we took Morris when we already had Zonk...


    Really? Then why did the Colts draft Edge James at #4? The drafting of James allowed the trading of Faulk to become possible.


    And here is your fuzzy yardstick Mr. Majestic, neither of those players made the Super Bowl, neither did Thomas, so are they washouts as well?

    Or is making the play offs and or pro bowls a better yard stick of an individual player's impact on a team?


    And in every case that you mention, besides the Pats, the Running Back was the "key" to winning that super bowl, the Pats are able to "make do" with a pounding type runner along with Kevin Faulk who plays more in the passing game and on third downs.

    And if you recall Benson was in the back seat last season to Jones, himself a top 10 draft pick as well.

    It also should be pointed out that the teams you list who did win the Super Bowl, nowhere do you mention "They never would have won, or even appeared in a Super Bowl if they didn't have a Top Five pick on the defensive line, "They never would have won the super bowl if they didn't draft DT so and so in the top five.."

    There is a reason for that, a single DT does not make that much difference in the NFL game....A RB does and can.
     

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