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(Not A Whole Lot Going On) GM League Draft Predictions

Discussion in '2011 GM League Forum' started by schisno, Mar 24, 2011.

  1. schisno

    schisno Well-Known Member

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    There hasn't been much action lately and with the draft just a couple days away I thought I'd make some bold predictions related to the draft.

    The Best and Worst draft isn't based on what I think of the GM's football draft acumen but based on the potential outlook based on the GM League draft game that we run each year. This is based on our selections versus where they are selected in real life. See below for an example of how the scores are calculated.


    Draft Game

    Draft Game Rules:
    1. Your score is simple. If you drafted a player lower than he was drafted in the NFL, you receive a point for each spot he slipped in the GM draft. If you draft a player higher than he was drafted in the NFL, you lose a point for each spot. Add them all together and divide by the total number of picks you had. That is your score. The winner will be the GM with the best average score.
    2. Each player is responsible for calculating their own score. The winner will have their score validated. You will have until May 5th to submit your score (one week after the NFL draft.)
    3. If you draft an undrafted NFL player, his NFL pick will be #256, one spot after Mr. Irrelevant.
    4. If you traded your draft pick, or acquired a rookie by trade, only the team that originally drafted the player may receive the score.

    EXAMPLE:
    2006 PANTHERS
    Round 1 - 13th overall - LenDale White - RB - USC NFL Round 2 - 45th overall -32
    Round 2 - 54th overall - Greg Jennings - WR - Western Michigan NFL Round 2 - 52nd overall +2
    Round 4 - 110th overall - Babatunde Oshinowo - DT - Stanford NFL Round 6 - 181st overall -71
    Round 4 - 120th overall - Dee Webb - CB - Florida NFL Round 7 - 236th overall -116
    Round 6 - 169th overall - Owen Daniels - TE - Wisconsin NFL Round 4 - 98th overall +71
    Round 7 - 211 overall - Jeremy Mincey - DE - Florida NFL Round 6 - 191st overall +20
    Round 7 - 218 overall - Calvin Lowry - S - Penn State NFL Round 4 - 102nd overall +116
    Round 7 - 222 overall - Charles Gordon - CB - Kansas NFL Undrafted -2

    Total Score: -12
    Average Score: -1.5



    So without a further ado, the predictions!


    Best Draft

    New York Giants: With nine combined selections in the final three rounds the Giants have a change to pick up a number of steals late, but will not be affected by dreaded undrafted tag because late round picks general don't get dinged as hard as players from the first four rounds. General the major steals occur in the fifth round where the Giants have three non compensatory picks.

    Starting off with one of the stronger rosters has allowed New York to acquire the depth it needed at most positions and with the #12 and #52 picks they will be able to select the best player available which will allow a top ten talent to fall to #12 and allow the Giants to gain much needed points in terms of the NFL draft and position value.

    #12 overall has become a value based pick here and will add to the draft game points allowing a positive start for the Giants and with a bevy of late picks it should balance any kind of miss in the second round, leading the Giants to the best draft.

    Worst Draft

    Green Bay Packers: This year you're not really sure who will go first overall in the NFL, so already the Cheese heads are handicapped by over drafting whoever they select with this selection. Whether it's Bowers, Dareus, Gabbert, Newton or anyone else there's quite a few ways this pick will mismatch the Packers.

    What will also lower their scores is the fact they will have two picks in the second round, and one in the third so either he'll have to be spot on with those picks or he could see a plummet in points if just one of those picks last beyond either the second or third round.

    Also he's only got three picks left with one in the fourth, fifth and sixth which will not allow much a change for “steals” in the draft. With a large margin for error and not much to pick up points with a steal because of his handicap from picking first overall the Packers will walk away with the worst draft this year.


    Biggest Reach

    Washington Redskins: The Gish Award aka the “Down With The Brown” Cup will fall on the Redskins this year as they come into the game late and have a number of holes to fill and only the #19 overall pick as his big chip Sean will find himself in a tough spot as the middle of the round picks have a 35% chance of falling into the second round. He could play it safe and nab one of the top tackles to man the right side and possible save too far of a slide and even gain some positive points.

    This is a deep year for defensive lineman so you'll see some over drafted players at either end or tackle, so Sean will have to be weary here. Though he will not reach the pinnacle of reaches like Gish and his Jamaal Charles selection.


    Most Predictable

    Green Bay Packers – AJ Green: This is the most obvious pick in the draft. The Packers traded away Jennings and need a new number one receiver, and if you follow past trends you will see offensive players go higher than any defensive players on average with wide receivers coming in second right after running backs. Unless this pick is traded, this one is a lock.


    Least Predictable

    Jacksonville Jaguars: Yes they could use an upgrade at quarterback, but whether it's Gabbert or Newton is determined to be seen, but how can you pass up some of the defensive players pass by with you sitting here, so I will say quarterback is not a lock and the Jaguars will take a safer pick than a quarterback that isn't Andrew Luck.


    View From The Bottom Of The Bottle Award

    This one is named after the Dallas GM because of his amazing foresight in the draft game, unlike Gish drafting Jamaal Charles at #17, the Cowboys were able to name Chris Johnson in the first round when no one expected him to go that high.

    Who wins it this year?

    I'll let the award stay in Dallas this year because he's already seen the bottom of several bottles as I was posting this.
     
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  2. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    Nicely done. Any opportunity you can find to kiss Boiks *** is a well rounded :shifty: decision.
     
  3. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Thee...Ohio State University
    I sense the Vikings and Packers dont like eachother?
     
  4. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    Thanks for the nice words bro. I do have one glaring need in my opinion and I plan on addressing it early, possibly often. Many of those late round picks are available though if the right player comes my way.

    Also, Paul is just jealous he is neither a mod or a man with a Godly team :lol:
     
  5. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    And the Mr Observant award goes to.
     
  6. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    My team is above God. Supergod. Demigod. :shifty:
     
  7. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    Godawful! :lol:
     
  8. schisno

    schisno Well-Known Member

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    Well I couldn't really pick myself for any of the awards/categories, I was being nice. If it makes everyone feel better and on equal ground you all have a good chance to have the worst draft this year, me I'm statistically set to be in the top ten percentile, if not number one. Sorry for all the false hope :p
     
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  9. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    Doh
     
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  10. Boik14

    Boik14 Admin Club Member Retired Administrator

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    New York
    :tongue2:
     
  11. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    Over Yonder
    I stand behind my Jammal Charles pick. And still don't think comparing our drafts to the real NFL draft should be the measuring stick. Everyone knows the NFL draft is a crapshoot to some degree. Comparing one crapshoot to another is meaningless. The bar should be whether they live up to their pick.
     
  12. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    Quick hide the beer the party pooper is here.
     
  13. schisno

    schisno Well-Known Member

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    One of the many reasons we've named the award the "Down With The Brown" Cup
     
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