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Oregon fan's take on Herbert

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by daphins, Mar 15, 2020.

  1. daphins

    daphins A-Style

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    Hey All! Loooooooong time member, who's more of a lurker these days. I keep an eye on the forums, and I'm getting excited about the possibility of Herbert being a Phin, and I think you should too. I've had season tickets to the ducks since before Mariota's freshmen year, and I've seen a lot of QB's come through that program. Let's break it down.

    The Good:

    1. Leadership - I've seen a lot of people here question Herbert's leadership. They shouldn't. The kid is a leader flat out. He came into the program underrated, with little chance to play going forward, but he did it because he loved the Ducks. The program was VERY termultuous while he was here, and he stayed dedicated to the Ducks throughout. Last season he had the option of leaving and being the likely #1 pick, but he passed it up largely because the program really needed him to stick around. He and Troy Dye were the undisputable leaders of that team. Where Mariota was a super nice guy, he was very even keel. The guys looked up to him for his talent, but he wasn't necessarily vocal. Justin is, and has been. He can lead a team if given the chance to earn the right.

    2. Natural Talent - The kid has it in spades. He was a local Eugene kid who hurt his knee his senior year. As a result he didn't get looks from a lot of D1 programs despite having a great pedigree and the physical size. He came into the program small, and beefed up QUICK. The first thing I noticed was that the kid knows where to put the ball. I've never seen a true Freshment drop dimes on fades to the back of the endzone, but the did. He also has a ton of zip on his ball is capable of "pucker your butthole throws" over the middle through tight windows. It remains to be seen if he can do that at the next level when defendes are quicker, but he's put on absolute clinic's for over the middle passes at the D1 level. If you want to see a good game, look up the Cal game from 2018. Marcus had a bit better touch on short passes, and a better deep ball (I'd argue Herbert has an equal arm, it just wasn't part of our offense the past few years), but Herbert had by far the better intermediate passing game between the two. He was always tall, but he got BIG, which really suprised me. His frame didn't look like he had that much room to grow, but he went form a tall slender QB to a QB who is tough to bring down.

    3. Smarts - The kid is brilliant. He played for 3 different head coaches, and 3 different offensive coordinatiors in 3 years. He has tons of honors for his brain and will be a doctor if the NFL thing doens't work out. Arguably, this could be a knock on him as he doens't NEED football. The kid has loved football his whole life and has been surrounded by the culture. A huge inspriation and mentor for him was former duck and current Cal coach Justin Wilcox. Wilcox mentored Herbert through high school and help build him into the player he is today.

    4. Herbert played on teams that were MUCH inferior to Mariota's. I don't think people realize the talent gap between the teams under Chip to where we were when Cristobal took over. When Chip was coach (Mariota's time) we had some of the best receiver talent we ever had, and a coach that made them much better than they were. I've never seen receivers over-perform like we had during the Chip era. When our WR coach moved on in the flip, I was worreid that we'd see a drop off, but I wasn't expecting how BIG of a dropoff it was. When Chip left and Helfrich took over, the talent on this team cratered. We suffered a few years of it, and when Willy got here the cupboards were almost empty. Luckily the program has rectified that, but damn it was awful. Herbert had a fantastic career at Oregon without a single standout wide receiver. They're not TERRIBLE, but they're average at best. As a result, you'll see games where Herbert has insane stats for spreading the ball around to many receivers. This last season in particular was full of poor WR play. The group was very young, dropped a ton of balls, and had A LOT of injuries. Our top 2 WR's were out for half the season, and it didn't do Herbert any favors.


    Criticisms

    1. Disappears during games - A lot of people point to this in his scouting reports, and it's true. I've seen it happen a number of times. The thing is, it's really hard to pinpoint whether it's Justin's fault or the fault of the offensive coordinator. Arroyo (the OC) was very underwhleming in his play calls. He rarely got creative with Herbert, and it showed. Our offense has been pretty vanilla, to the point where a lot of people were relieved when he took his new HC gig. It COULD be that Herbert disappears, but judging by how other positions have been run, I personally think it was Arroyo. Herbert can run, but didn't run much under Cristobal and Arroyo...a sharp change from when Taggart ran the team. We came out 9/10 with a run up the middle on the first down of every possession. Honestly the Ducks are retooling themselves to be a smash-mouth SEC team, and I think the conservativeness really held Herbert back.

    2. For every game that Herbert had incredible stats for spreading the ball around, he had games where he'd lock in on a receiver and force it. This was glaring in the later part of last season when we had particularly bad WR play, and one reliable weapon. Herbert got it done but it was clear he wasn't necesarily running the system, which go frustrating.




    I'm honestly not sure how Herbert's career in the NFL will go, but the dude is brilliant, has incredible athletic tools at his disposal, and I'd really like to see what he can do on a quality team. He came in at the low point of our program, and will go down as an aboslute savior for returning his senior year. He's very unselfish, and universally loved. I'll be rooting for him no matter where he lands, but it would be a blast to see him on the Phins.


    P.S. Remember when I said there was a dropoff in talent when Chip left? Look no further than the QB position. The Ducks struck gold with Herbert, but it should be noted that Tua was BEGGING to come to the Ducks. He was a HUGE Mariot a fan, and by extension a HUGE Duck fan. Our coach at the time (Helfrich) didn't like his attitude and didn't offer him, so he moved to Alabama. By the time Helfrich realized he didn't have a QB on the team, it was too late. Tua had moved on, the rest is history.
     
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  2. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If they draft this kid I will try to be optimistic.

    I think Tua at the 5 spot if he is there...If he is taken I pass on Herbert with the 5th pick.

    I like him... Not enough to take him 5th... If he drops to the 18 spot... Sure.. (Same for Love )
     
  3. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    But thanks for the scouting report.
     
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  4. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I've personally come to the conclusion Herbert is my #1 QB this draft.

    I've been a fan of Burrow, but as the season ended, reality set in and I actually looked at everything...I dont think Burrow or Tua, though they may have more "polish" at this point to their games, translate well to the NFL level.

    Herbert is the only one I see with NFL level physical and mental capabilities.
     
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  5. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Who's Justin Herbert?
     
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  6. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I would say that the mental aspect of it is where Tua outshines Burrow and Herbert...
     
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  7. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    [​IMG]
     
  8. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    Number 10 guy up there. /\
     
  9. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    I think Sceeto was being sarcastic. He's Herbert's dad... :chuckle:
     
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  10. daphins

    daphins A-Style

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    Wait, what?
     
  11. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Ryan Tannehill v2.0

    Elite arm and athleticism. Works well in structure. Can get flustered when things get off script, and a tendency to stare down receivers.
     
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  12. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tannehill did not have anything close to an elite arm when he was drafted.

    He was athletic and he had great size... He has had to work a lot to become accurate and develop touch... He has come a long way with his pocket presence also.
     
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  13. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Nothing personal, but others have said that as well and I think that's a very lazy comparison.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2020
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  14. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Hey. I acknowledge this is just a highlight video. I have watched a lot of his tape, the good and the bad. I also acknowledge that it's against Colorado, but look at some of these throws. There's some really sweet stuff here. Check out the pass at the 1:50 mark to Pittman. Talk about timing, touch and accuracy. Also, check out the TD pass at the 2:20 mark. There's a plethora of very good, NFL type throws in this game. Pretty cool.

     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2020
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  15. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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  16. BevoPhin

    BevoPhin Well-Known Member

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    I don’t see how anyone can watch interviews with Tua, Burrow, Love, and Herbert and come away thinking anything other than what you just said. Tua is the most impressive in interviews. He’s also the most impressive on the field. Make it happen, Grier.
     
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  17. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, you have to be incredibly football smart to throw to the first read of your progression who is 3 feet open on 65% of plays.

    Tua is going to look like hot trash at the NFL level. He literally has none if the skills you want in a QB at a high enough level.

    Hes "okay" at a ton of things (nfl wise, not college where hes a perfect fit) but lacks any sort of stand out skill.
     
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  18. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    That's cool, man. I've seen all of those before which is why I said it's not personal. However, I still disagree and still think it is a lazy and inaccurate comparison...by anyone and there is good and bad film on any prospect.
    I can list the specific reasons for why it is a very lazy and inaccurate comparison, but I, unusually, happened to fall asleep early last night, so I woke up very early this morning. I didn't have dinner last night and I am off of work today, so I woke up and had 2 cold kolsch's and a massive bowl of pasta bolognese, so I think I will pass out again. (that's how I deal with pandemics) Maybe later.

    BTW, again, not directed at you, but generally speaking, I think it would be a good idea if we keep Tannehill out of these threads for awhile. The dude is like crack for us Phin fans. Time to put the pipe down for a bit.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2020
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  19. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    The traits that translate to the NFL are accuracy, fast release, anticipation and reading defenses. These are the areas Tua and Burrow excel at. Herbert is significantly below the top two guys in these areas. I still have him as a 1st round pick, but I don't have him as a top 5 guy. If we took him there it would be b/c Burrow and Tua are gone and we're reaching for a need.
     
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  20. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I am not a fan of trading up to Get tua... so I am not all in on the insanity... But how could you watch Tua and say that he only completed passes where the receiver was the first look and three feet open....

    Did Tua bang your mom and you have PTSD now or something?
     
  21. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you want to argue that the Receivers Tua threw to on Bama would be better than what he will throw to in Miami I am down with that argument. But to say he only made one read or hit receivers three feet open... wow.
     
  22. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Copied and saved for future reference when Tua lights up the NFL. I just hope it's for us, that's all.
     
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  23. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    As I've said before, whoever we draft even if I dislike them I'm going to support them.

    Now list all of your predictions since we are playing I told you so, which I wasnt trying to do.
     
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  24. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Sorry friend, but I don't want anything to do with an Oregon QB in the NFL. At best they have been mediocre.
     
  25. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    LOL, I agree about Herbert, but that's a lame argument. What about Alabama QBs in the NFL? What about LSU QBs in the NFL? There go the top three QBs drafted this year...
     
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  26. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Oh yea, it's lame no doubt. I'll admit that!
     
  27. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    How about Alabama QBs?
     
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  28. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    Nah, I wasn't trying to be clever or play I told you so, I just thought it was bit of puzzling thing to say about him. Are you saying that you don't like him personally or that you wouldn't like it if we draft him? Or both?

    I just happen to think that he's the dog's nadgers but I'll happily let you remind me of it, if he turns out to be pants - whoever he ends up with.
     
  29. TheOne

    TheOne Active Member

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    an injured Tua is way better than a healthy Herbert.
     
  30. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    It's not personal at all. I mean, I dont know him personally but he seems like a good guy.

    It's more some small things I dont think translate well.

    For instance, on deep throws he is very accurate. However, I've noticed there are times he needs a LOT of space in the pocket to get his body momentum moving forward to deliver the ball. He also has a tendency to throw his swing leg very wide at certain times on deep balls to create momentum which I think at the NFL level is at the very least an injury risk for any QB. I think this is because his arm strength isnt great, but not the end of the world.

    On that same note though, unless he improves his arm I dont see him being able to compete in the intermediate range, which I am starting to think of Burrow as well. This SHOULD be his bread and butter in the NFL but he needs to beef his arm up some. Again, not the end of the world but it gives me pause.

    I just hesitate whenever I see a guy and I'm not sure his greatest assets really translate well to the next level.

    FWIW In that post I was over the top. I dont necessarily think he will be "hot trash" like the words I used which were dumb and I must have been in a bad mood writing that.

    My official stance is more that I have question marks about his best tools at the college level, and I'm not lucky enough to be able to meet with and assess him in person.

    Honestly as of this second if I had to assign a % to the top 3 QB success, as in a higher % equals a higher chance of success (As I see them personally) I'd go like this:

    Herbert: 43%
    Burrow: 41%
    Tua: 40%

    I'm not sold on anyone, but I think Herbert is being overlooked a bit by fans.

    FWIW I accept I could be 200% wrong about all three guys. I dont get paid for this, so I'm allowed to be LOL
     
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  31. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    I was unimpressed with Arroyo as OC. Glad he is gone. I wish Joe Moorhead would have been hired a year earlier. The Ducks have a good history of producing RBs, but have been terrible with recruiting and/or developing WRs. In the past 10 years, only 2 Ducks WRs have even been drafted in the NFL. Josh Huff in the 3rd a few years ago, which was surprisingly early, and likely only taken that high because it was Chip Kelly drafting him, and he knew him. Then last year, Dillon Mitchell was drafted in the 7th by the Vikings.
    The best WR Herbert threw to in his entire career was Mitchell, who to this point is a fringe NFL player.
    If Herbert would have been in an offense that suited his strengths, and had a WR corps like Tua did at Alabama, he'd be currently neck and neck with Burrow to be the 1st overall pick. If Tua would have been throwing to Oregon's mediocre collection of WRs the past two years, fans would be far less enamored with him. To compare their situations using a basketball analogy, Tua throwing to Jeudy, Ruggs, Waddle, and Smith was like shooting uncontested layups repeatedly, while Herbert throwing to the Ducks WRs was like repeatedly trying to drain 3s from the corner.

    Speaking of Troy Dye, he is the 2nd best pass coverage LB in this draft, behind only Isaiah Simmons. Dye likely goes in the 50-100 overall range and someone is gonna get a steal.
     
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  32. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Since Joe Willie Namath, and Snake Stabler the Tide hasn't produced anyone noteworthy until now with Tua. Oregon's track record with QBs isn't as bad in that span.
     
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  33. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Before Tua, who was the last really good Bama QB to enter the NFL? I'll give you a clue. He was left-handed and wore #12 in silver and black. There was Richard Todd, a 1st by the Jets in 1974, but he never lived up to his draft status.
     
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  34. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Great point about Bama QB's
     
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  35. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    [​IMG]
     
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  36. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    The closest current NFL comparison to Herbert is probably Carson Wentz.
     
  37. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I wouldnt necessarily agree with that, but I'm interested in why you feel that way.

    I'd compare the things I think he can do at the NFL level to Roethlisberger if we can use any recentish player.
     
  38. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Please let's all hope that Herbert does not also rape two women
     
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  39. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Well I meant ON the field lol
     
  40. MrClean

    MrClean Inglourious Basterd Club Member

    Similar size, athleticism, and arm strength. Hopefully, he would stay healthier than Wentz has. Generally, I'm not a huge fan of the Hindu theory concept, but others seem to like them, so I'll play along sometimes. I could see Flacco as a decent comparison too.
     
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