The play action off the formation is so much more effective than the traditional sets, what if this read option stuff really makes it easier to pass the football.? Out of all the qbs who have the ability to really threaten out of the formation, I don't think any of them can hang with Ryan when it comes to throwing the football with velocity and accuracy, so if this formation and his running ability can truly hesitate the defense, we might have somethin here. Just keep rewatching the linebackers and def ends on those plays where he faked or handed to the back on Friday.., I mean if he wanted to he could of kept the ball a couple of times and ran for at least 10 yards each, the edge of the formation was wide open, if he can get a clean pocket for which to operate this read option philosophy is really going to help this Qb..
I get the excitement but I think you have some tunnel vision here. I mean CKaep and has better or at least similar arm talent if we're talking velocity and distance and accuracy and throwing on the run. (The question with him is mental, imo, and a lack of WR targets.) RG3 has a great arm and is a damn good passer off of that kind of action, and Cam has got a hell of an arm as well. I don't think what you're talking about is that rare. I think the best example would be RG3 rookie highlights, which are pretty insane from the standpoint of being efficient while hitting big plays on the ground and in the air. He completed 65% of his passes at 8.1ypa. Tannehill has never shown the kind of vertical ability over the course of a season or even a few consecutive games. I'm expecting big things from Tannehill too...but there are talented guys who have already done the stuff you're talking about and done it in actual games and made the playoffs. If RT had the season RG3 did in his rookie year we'd have crowned him already.
No tunnel vision I'm clear as to what I'm trying to say, maybe I'm not saying it correctly.. I'm going to disregard the cam newton statement from you limbo because if that dude didn't have below waist talent, he wouldn't be in the league, arm talent is not throwing for distance, it's a combination of things, newton is not on Ryan levels when it comes strictly to passing the football, and mostly that talent is in the form of accuracy, I don't think you will find many that disagree with me that Ryan is a more accurate Qb that Wilson, Kap, RG3, or Newton..and believe me this coming from a guy where if it were me, Kap and Wilson would of been drafted by us. If were evaluating these five qbs in a box and that box is just based on pure pocket skills, I'm going to say that Ryan is the best of the bunch in terms of potential, and just pure ability throwing the football with pace, rotation and accuracy. Now my point is, I have believed for a long time that the read option is an incredible tool in terms of effectiveness in the run game and play action passing game, completely based on deception, hesitation and what that does to great defensive athletes..I'm posing the question what if the formation itself just may be helping these four qbs more than anyone thinks, and what if a Qb who has the best potential from a arm talent perspective is capable of executing it, maybe it can impact our Qb more than any of them.. Look no further than nick foles and the chip Kelly offense..did anyone see that coming, does anyone think he would have the best Qb rated season ever if he was based out of a mike Sherman offense?, no, even a guy who doesn't have the athletic ability of the guys I'm talking about, completely ran the offense thru the formation and completely benefitted from it. I'm trying to see if there is a correlation.
CKap has a cannon and stronger arm than Tannehill... but Tannehill is a better thrower of the football in being able to make different types of throws.
I love what Kap brings to the table, I have him in the top 8, but if were talking about stripping them of their legs and forcing them to stay in the pocket and just use the arm, I'd give ryan the edge..
Of the hybrid types, RG3 is the only one that I think you can argue has as much arm talent as Tannehill. But IMO Tannehill is still better in the pocket. I would also say that Wilson is good from the pocket. He has less arm talent but he does manage the pocket well. CKap would be a third stringer if there were a rule against QBs running.
Ok...I'm going to rephrase the question. Out of all five qbs, newton, RG, Wilson, Kap, Tannehill, which arm do you build your Qb with?
Ryan is the best intermediate arm of that group, I don't think he has shown the best decision making abilities of the group, certainly lacks the deep ball ability. All those guys bring different things to an offense, hopefully Tanny gets a nose up on those guys this year instead of IMO being a nose down.
IMO Wilson isn't a read option QB so throw him out. Of those guys I honestly think Ryan is the best pure passer.
PFF had Tannehill rated at 6th in the league in clean pocket passing, behind Manning, Brees, Brady...Rivers and Luck only barely edged him out. That would fit your argument.
Just for giggles, here's the top 7 PFF rated QBs from 2013, and the other guys you're talking about: Top 7 Peyton Manning 42.2 Drew Brees 30.7 Philip Rivers 26.7 Russell Wilson 23.7 Aaron Rodgers 17.5 Tom Brady 17.0 Ryan Tannehill 16.9 Others C-Kap 13.1 Andrew Luck 11.7 Nick Foles 11.6 Scam Newton 7.2 RGIII -3.1
Wilson is just great period. We've had discussions as to what the ultimate dual threat Qb is, from what this formation does to a defense, a Qb who has the arm talent ryan has alongside the threat of actually executing a read option keeper, we might see something pretty cool.
They're "individual" ratings of the QBs, not a rating of their whole offense. Nick was good ya, but that team made him look even better.
I'm gonna keep trying to make a point..lol Of course Kap, Wilson, RG, and newton can use their legs and have superior escapability talent over Ryan, however, they don't have what Ryan has in his arm, yet, Ryan can still execute a read option keeper..the differences in talent relative to the formation may benefit the better passing Qb...idk, but nick foles running this offense and running twice as much as Ryan did last year is something that I don't think we're looking close enough at when it comes to the formation, the qbs skillset, and the success. Hmmm, you know what RG, newton, Wilson, and Kap have in common for being such young qbs? They all made the playoffs using the formation extensively.. The one Qb who was constricted to the pocket, wasn't allowed to use his entire skillset has failed.. I'm getting myself excited.
Tannehills numbers will be better then Kap, Wilson, RG3...and Luck this season... Anyone wanna wager?
QBs are impossible to judge by stat lines though. For instance you tgrow a screen pass the WR takes 75 yards and your stats plump up. IMO That is what Tannehill has been missing to inflate his numbers. When was the last time we threw a screen and the HB took it 30 yards to pump his numbers up? A WR made a huge play after the catch on a short pass more than once in a blue moon?
That's the thing...PFF rating doesn't give the QB credit for that, like passer rating does. Edit: I'm not saying PFF's stuff is infallible, I just think it's a much better/closer to accurate reading of individual QB play compared to crap like passer rating, YPA, QBR, etc.
I'd definitely bet against you on that. If Tannehill outperforms all those guys, we're talking a 95+ passer rating. I'm not sure he's there yet. I'll be happy if he puts up better numbers than just two of those guys
Agree 100%. I mean I built most of the depth on my team in our GM League this year based on PFF metrics when I was unsure about players. They aren't perfect but they are pretty accurate in many ways.
If I was a betting man, I would. All we have seen is potential, here and there. The others have shown it, IMHO. I would take CKap over Tanny right now. I....WANT.....Tanny to be good, and I've been hoping he turns out to be. But I have cooled my expectations down a little even though I realize much of it COULD BE Sherman's fault. I believe Wallace took a screen pass to the EZ last year, around 30 yards or so, though I don't remember the game.
I don't think I have an easy answer. I'll eliminate Newton right away b/c I see his accuracy as very streaky. I'll drop Wilson next b/c while I love the complete package, I see his arm talent as a step below the other three. CKap has the strongest arm, but I think Tannehill and RG3 have better touch. On arm talent alone I see Tannehill and RG3 as a toss-up, but I see Tannehill as a better pocket QB. I don't see Tannehill's pocket awareness as great but it's better than RG3's and I also think Tannehill is better at making reads from the pocket.
Personally, I would argue that Tannehill has shown it as well, but being on a crappy team he just doesn't have the won/loss record of the other guys so it's disregarded. I would probably take Tannehill over everybody we've been discussing but Luck and Wilson. IMO Tannehill's ceiling is as high, but those two have a huge experience edge. I think that experience translates into the ability to know when to try the risky pass and when to tuck and run or even to just take the sack. And it's not just knowing it, but how quickly you know it. Right now Luck and Wilson "know" sooner. I have no doubt that with experience Tannehill's processing of those decisions will speed up, but how much is an unknown. But I think it's likely that he'll be about as fast as the other two based on the general reports of his intelligence and work ethic, his ability to learn Sherman's system while practicing at WR and on the first preseason game in a new system. According to Lazor, Tannehill threw every pass on time in that game. That seems to imply that he's making those reads very quickly already so that's a promising sign.
Your building up my hope again, I had it when he was comng out of college in terms of my coveted escapability playmaking gene, I simply assumed because he was a receiver and ran the read option that he had a good amount of it, we know for whatever reason that wasn't the case, I'm not as sure as you but here's to you being right about the experience part improving that reaction time and ability to sense where the pressure is coming from..after all, he has only been coached from the pocket by one guy, and we know how that guy coached him from the pocket..."stay at all costs"........ The question that always lingers to me is, could that stubbornness of Sherman removing his legs from the equation, could actually benefit him longterm and was it on total purpose. I have no question that Ryan will stay and look down the barrell til the very last second, however, I think that moment has to be retrained some to have a better balance of playmaking ability mixed into the equation, the negative effect of hanging on to long was too much to overcome. ( 56 sacks should make you change philosophy)
Do you know where I'm comng from Rafs in terms of what I'm thinking in the original post? Like as far as qbs who actually can run this formation, I believe ryan has the best arm talent, and what if that balance that favors the arm could create something we haven't seen.? I'm thinking that the formational threat Creates lanes in the passing game caused by hesitation and effectiveness when the Qb actually chooses to run, that a gifted arm could exploit more so than the gifted runner with a lesser arm.. I should study nick foles game and how much passing he did off the read option fake relative to strait drops..I would love to see his numbers based on that.
I think so, but I'm having trouble with the term "arm talent" I think that limits things too much. My read is that what you're looking for is which of the QBs is best from the pocket. I agree that the run threat makes the D hesitate and opens up the passing lanes. And that the better a QB is from the pocket, the more he could take advantage of that. I also think that Tannehill is the best pocket QB amongst the options mentioned. As for Foles, I don't know if it matters whether his passing occurred off of read option fakes or straight drop backs. I believe that as long as you run that read option enough the D will always hesitate. So while the effect may be a bit larger on the read-option itself, it always exists.
That's stunning considering the historically bad protection Ryan had. Man, if we even give up league-average sack and pressure numbers this season the offense will be so much better!
I agree that once it's a staple of your offense it will continue to have its effect on the defense.. As far as arm talent, the ability to deliver the football accurately with correct pace..in isolation if I'm building the Qb to run this formation, from the prospects that I mentioned, I would have to go with Ryan's arm, my deeper question is because he has that quality, and the ability to take the run on the option and actually be effective, will this ratio in his skillset be better than a Qb like Wilson or Kap who have superior athletic ability and running ability but inferior passing ability. I'm not saying I would take ryan over Wilson or Kap, I just don't what this Qb could look like in this formation anymore, I mean it's like it's a whole new evaluation ya know, a clean slate?, and it might be a lack of objectivity but what Sherman did to Tannehill last year, not using half of his skillset, what else am I supposed to see.?
I see a subject that is so hopelessly interpretive that it probably doesn't warrant arguing at all, let alone on some team's home court (a Dolphins fan board). Ryan Tannehill throws a good football. Lot of arm talent there. But the guys you're comparing him to between Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson all have extremely good arm talent. We're talking about (and I'm including Tannehill in this) some of the best arm talents in the league. Russell Wilson's arm talent is the most commonly underrated purely due to peoples' gestalt of what a short, physically unimposing guy's arm would typically look like. In their mind, he doesn't throw a great ball. On tape, he throws a great ball and people are constantly surprised by it. Sort of like an overweight friend that looks to you like he's lost weight every time you see him.
Ryan Tannehill's accuracy is easily as streaky as Cam Newton's, by the way. If you track completion percentage on the fringes of the football field (intermediate left & right, deep left & right, deep center)...Newton has completed 119 of 265 (44.9%) the last two seasons. Tannehill has completed 110 of 270 (40.7%). Those are typically the areas of the field where you're going to see "arm talent" manifest in increased chances of a successful outcome. But I'm sure that will be strenuously disagreed with on some sort of basis that involves completely vague and amorphous ideas of what "arm talent" is and how it should or shouldn't be measured.
I agree CK, but I'm just trying to make a specific point about formation relative to talent relative to success,if your building a Qb whos arm do you take? Another question, do you agree on any level that this formation, and how Sherman stripped Tannehill of part of his skillset, and from what we saw in one preseason game, that we need to reevaluate this Qb?
