Right off the bat, I am going to say sorry because I won't be able to complete this study until Tuesday or Wednesday due to an upcoming exam. Anyways, I plan on looking at the WRs drafted by the Packers the last couple of years and looking at all their combine numbers; finding a lower and upper limit for each position drills value and then an average for each position drills value and comparing them to this years draft prospects. Should be an interesting study. I already glanced at Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings and Randall Cobbs stats and the one thing that jumped out at me right away is the 40 yard dash BUT even more telling was the 60 yard Shuttle. Again, this is me just eyeballing the stats, but those numbers seems to indicate the most importance right off the bat (I plan on adding other players when I have more time, like I said before though [AND THESE VALUES WILL CHANGE]). Between just those three guys here are some stats: 40 yard dash: range (4.42 to 4.51) average (4.46) 60 yard Shuttle: range (11.15 to 11.56) average (11.41) ***The 60 yard shuttle was especially noticeable because all of those times were fantastic*** Based on those two permitters and averages, here are some players we are likely to look at (assuming we want WRs like Green Bays): 1.) Markus Wheaton (Oregon State): 4.45 40-yard dash and 11.16 60-yard shuttle (He beat Randall Cobb at every single drill) -I'd like to thank people on here for point him out a while ago. He definitely seems like a perfect fit for us and someone that we could target in round 2. 2.) Ryan Spadola (Lehigh): 4.48 40-yard dash and 11.35 60-yard shuttle -I'd definitely like to see some game film on this kid. From an athletic ability standpoint he fits the bill. Definitely made himself some money. 3.) Terrance Williams (Baylor): 4.52 40-yard dash and 11.50 60-yard dash -Another WR I really like. 40 yard dash was 0.01 slower than Jennings, Cobb, or Nelson (but I think that is still close enough to include him). A lot of WRs choose not to run the 60-yard shuttle (or their times had not shown up yet on NFL.com yet), but here are some other WRs that seemed to fit the bill based on athletic ability, in no order: -Tavon Austin -Who wouldn't want him in their system. You could always find a use for a guy like this -Chris Harper -A tad slower 40, but all other numbers in line -Cordarrelle Patterson -Solid numbers today all around -Kenny Stills -Sort of flying under the radar still. Good numbers all around and productive in college -Ryan Swope -Had a very impressive day today -Justin Hunter -Impressed me A LOT today. For all the talk about Patterson being a freak, I think Hunter showed today that he is just as much of a freak. He needs to add weight, but at 6'4 and 196 (compared to Patterson at 6'2 and 216) he has the size you look for in the next level. Longer arms and bigger hands than Patterson. Ran 0.02 slower than Patterson, but jumped 2.5 inches higher and 8 inches further in the long jump. Ran a fast 20 yard-dash. Had more catches, yards, and TDs compared to Patterson. Was a bit of a one year wonder. With his athletic ability, I would say he is more polished than Patterson right now, and has a ceiling that is pretty high. Personal sad note: As many people know here I am very much a fan of DeAndre Hopkins and really want the Dolphins to draft him. Unfortunately, based on his numbers compared to the limited amount that I looked at the Packers WRs he doesn't seem to fit. His 40 yard dash was too slow (4.57) and his 20-yard dash was considerably slower than the Packers WRs at 4.5 (the slowest Packer was Jordy Nelson at 4.35). Hopefully, when I run more numbers and add in the other Packers players he will be pushed back into contention. Personally impressed me: Connor Vernon, despite a slow 40-yard dash time at 4.68, ALL of his other numbers fell in line with the Packers WRs. He looked like a natural catcher out there and really caught my eye. I am really curious to see where he gets drafted. Seems like a player that gets drafted and just sticks to a team for 10 years doing all the little things.
Hunter doesn't have the YAC ability nor the natural hands that Patterson does. It's not even close. Patterson is a top 15 guy, Hunter is a top 48 guy
Thanks for the research. It's an interesting study, although I'm not sure you can eliminate guys just by comparing their numbers in the combine. Some of the guys that I think fit the Packer mold the best aren't even on this list. I think Hopkins will certainly be a guy the Dolphins will look at regardless of his 40 time today. On a side note, Terrence Williams' 40 time really surprised me today. I thought he had a shot to crack under a 4.4 because he looks like a burner on the field. I hope his 4.5 pushes him down a little bit and make him available to the Dolphins in round 2 because I think he would be an excellent fit.
Also, on Connor Vernon, I like him a lot as a slot guy. Great hands, looked good at the Senior Bowl. I just don't see a fit with him on the Dolphins with Bess there. I could see the Pats being all over him though.
You know, I've looked at these, and when you look at the Packers wide outs, there really isn't a common physical skill that they are looking for. At least I don't think there is. I would almost say they put more emphasis on quickness, but their 20 yard shuttles range from 4.18 with Greg Jennings to 4.35 with Jordy Nelson. That's a fairly wide range to say for definite that they emphasis it. I think when looking at the qualities they look for, you have to go back to the film. IMO, the Packers want wide receivers that are selfless #1. There is no "#1" receiver in this offense, so I really don't think they want guys who are going to constantly demand the ball. Second, I think it is pretty obvious that they want complete wide receivers. Randall Cobb may be a slight exception to this, but he didn't play much till he started getting better with all the routes they run. He does most of his work from the slot currently, but this is the guy that allows them to not resign Jennings. Cobb has undoubtedly shown enough that they feel he can play outside as well as inside. I come back to this all the time, but there are a few receivers in this class that I think meet what I feel are their qualifications on film, and thusly, I believe they would be a good fit for Miami because I feel Miami's staff is looking for the same thing. Cordarrelle Patterson may not be as polished as the other guys, but he has proven he is selfless and has the ability to run every route and play all three positions, IMO. Keenan Allen may be a guy that needs studying a little more to make sure he isn't a selfish player, but from an on the field standpoint, he can run every route and play all three positions. Quinton Patton is another guy that fits, IMO. Ryan Swope is a great fit. He's already played in the offense and has a rapport with the quarterback. I wouldn't overlook that aspect of this. Robert Woods is another guy. He doesn't standout physically, but he chews up a cushion very quickly, and can run every route.
People should take note that the numbers you see on NFL Draft Scout prior to 2012 were NOT "official" numbers in the way that we understand them now. So you're really comparing apples to oranges, IMO.
I would add intelligence as a major factor as well. In fact, I would probably put that above everything except maybe position versatility. Philbin is going to want WRs that he will trust to make adjustments while on the move that match what RT is seeing. So I would look for WRs that come from offenses that required their WRs to make adjustments based on the coverage to have a leg up.
Honestly, I'm not sure many college offenses have their wide receivers make a ton of sight adjustments. There some some spread offenses that do that, but not all. I'd guess the team that does the most with sight adjustments on the fly is June Jones's SMU team. I agree with you about intelligence though, and that zeroes me in on really one wide receiver that I'm very confident about as far as how he would react and adjust his route on the fly and be on the same page as Ryan Tannehill. That is Ryan Swope.
I think it's a certainty Swope will be a Dolphin unless another team jumps very high to get him. There's a number of reasons for this that you eluded to. But there's also the reason of need. I'm not speaking of needing just a WR, but a WR that can play this year. And play at a high level. Drafting Swope not only fits the packer WR mold and is an upgrade over our current receivers, but also he knows the system... Much like Tannehill, I think Swope will have the advantage of knowing who, what, when, where, and why from the jump. Giving him the same advantage Tannehill had. We need that. It's the closest thing to drafting a "veteran". If you pair him with Jenning's (who also knows the system), you're giving Tannehill weapons that contribute Week 1. Given Ireland's history of wanting to draft guys at the top who can play right away and succeed, Swope is a Dolphin... Unless, as I said, some team comes out of nowhere to draft him. I wouldn't be shocked if we traded down (like we did in 2010 when we drafted Odrick) into the late twenties, scoop up another 2nd. Then maybe trade up into the high 2's for Swope (would be similar to where Nelson was drafted).
Those that were in love with Eifert feel he lived up to the hype. I remain skeptical. Thought people really overrated his combine. Chris Gragg showed he's physically a monster. Other than Gragg, don't think anyone really jumped out. Jordan Reed was slower than expected. Probably pushes himself into the 4th/5th range.
Here's a nice look at Swope's quicks and wheels at 2:20, great stutter pattern, stop and go: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vna4XQXtVEk If that was Hartline, does he take it to the house? My guess is no.
I like 2 receivers in this draft and Phins should get both Patterson and Rogers with the top picks. No one else excites me in this draft.
