Parcells Draft History ('93-'06), Tendencies by Round Extension & New Mock Draft

I’m just kicking stones here, but I was looking at my write up of Parcells’ Drafting History (1993 – 2006),

http://forums.thephins.com/showthread.php?t=4091

and it occurred to me that the numbers could be extended to give an even more informed view of what Parcells might be thinking. In this case, I think it would be worthwhile for me to examine what Parcells was doing in his previous drafts. I like tendencies, simply because everyone has them. No matter who you are you all have routines, and paradigms of daily operation. You go the same way to work most mornings, you drink the same coffee etc. Now, people will say those are habits, and they are. However within those habits are tendencies; does a person drink coffee in the morning or the afternoon is an example. How about does that same person drink more on the first Tuesday of every month because of a monthly budget meeting? I find tendencies fun because you can rely on them. Over time these tendencies are so normal they are almost instinctual, tenets of existence. Or, as we say about old people sometimes: “They are set in their ways”. Married people usually can have an idea of what their spouse will say or do in certain instances before they happen. It’s also what leads to monotony, if left completely unfettered.

In football, coach’s tendencies are like pots of gold. Find one that no one else has seen in your next opponent; you are God for the week. Coaches are taught to find, examine and exploit their opponents’ tendencies to the point where he dies by his own hand. That is tactical football. I’m doing that with this draft I think, or at least in my convoluted mind it seems that way. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, or that is what insane men have said when they hold their failed attempts at destiny in their hands. Sorry, got a little side tracked……………

For this installment of the Conuficus mind trip we will look at what Parcells’ did in each round. What did he do with his first round picks over his coaching career? A simple question like this was at the heart of my first examination, and hopefully it is here. In this examination I will mainly stay to the overall picture, as dealing with each team has been done before. Also in such an instance examination of the previous regime’s actions should be done. What I’m really looking for here is what Parcells does round by round, are there any tendencies he has regardless of team. I have shown Parcells’ versatility and adaptability in my previous examination, or at least I think I did. Well, now that you know what I’m trying to do, let’s get into it.
This will be laid out as 5 of 10 total picks……….5/10 = 50% (same as before)

Round 1: 10 total picks

2/10 on offense = 20%.......................8/10 on defense = 80%

By position:
1 QB – 1/10 = 10% ... 1 ILB – 1/10 = 10%
1 WR – 1/10 = 10%... 4 OLB – 4/10 = 40% (half of all picks in total 5/10)
2 CB – 2/10 = 20%
1 DE – 1/10 = 10%

As you can see Parcells favors both one side and one position above all else here. Such an overwhelming majority does not happen by chance over this period. In this round OLB and CB’s would be the most highly valued by the numbers presented.

Round 2: 13 total picks

8/13 on offense = 61.5%.....................5/13 on defense = 38.5%

By position:

2 WR – 2/13 = 15.37% ... 1 DE – 1/13 = 7.68%
1 TE – 1/13 = 7.68% ... 1 DT – 1/13 = 7.68%
1 RB – 1/13 = 7.68%... 2 ILB – 2/13 = 15.37%
2 OT – 2/13 = 15.37%... 1 SS – 1/13 = 7.68%
1 G – 1/13 = 7.68%...
1 C – 1/13 = 7.68% ...

Here we can see that Parcells begins to equalize his preferences by favoring the offense more. Here the trend seems to be that if it an offensive player it will be either an O-lineman (30.74% overall when positions are combined), or WR. If there is a defensive player taken, the D-line and ILB take preference over all other positions. However, the O-line is an overwhelming favorite here. Now before everyone clamors for Cherilus at #32,………the highest O-line was ever taken was #38 – C, Al Johnson, otherwise if one was taken it was done in the 50+ range. #57 might be the more likely choice for an O-lineman here.

Round 3: 12 total picks

6/12 on offense = 50%.......................6/12 on defense = 50%

By position:

1 WR – 1/12 = 8.33%... 1 DT – 1/12 = 8.33%
1 TE – 1/12 = 8.33%... 1 DE – 1/12 = 8.33%
1 RB – 1/12 = 8.33%... 1 ILB – 1/12 = 8.33%
2 G – 2/12 = 16.66%... 2 CB – 2/12 = 16.66%
1 C – 1/12 = 8.33%... 1 FS – 1/12 = 8.33%

In this round Parcells is right down the middle, which is interesting. To me it shows that he might be looking for value, or to try and fill a need here. In the two previous rounds, I think he shows a serious disposition to a premeditated plan. I think the O-line as a whole is the way he goes offensively (25% if you combine the interior lineman, which in itself is a tendency). On the defensive side it appears he might look to fill out the defensive backfield as a group. On the whole it should be pointed out that Parcells doesn’t draft many safeties period.

Round 4: 16 total picks

8/16 on offense = 50%.......................8/16 on defense = 50%

By position:

2 WR – 2/16 = 12.5%... 2 DT – 2/16 = 12.5%
1 TE – 1/16 = 6.25%... 3 DE – 3/16 = 18.75%
2 RB – 2/16 = 12.5%... 1 LB – 1/16 = 6.25%
1 OT – 1/16 = 6.25%... 1 CB – 1/16 = 6.25%
1 G – 1/16 = 6.25%... 1 SS – 1/16 = 6.25%
1 C – 1/16 = 6.25%...

In this round Parcells goes right down the middle again in terms of offense defense, although further examination shows glaring tendencies here. On the offensive side of the ball Parcells will look to add some skill help, either WR, or RB,…..but skill guys will get the looks here. On the defensive side we can see Parcells really like to get some D-linemen, and in particular DE’s. It is interesting that most “big” DE’s that don’t possess great pass rushing skills, or speed off the edge fall to round 3-4, aka “the middle rounds”. And, here we are ready to grab them up. It is also telling that OLB is valued so highly, yet the D-linemen who tie up the O-linemen are left until here to be found. Is Glenn Dorsey reading this?……………..Sorry Glenn.

Round 5: 13 total picks

7/13 on offense = 54%.......................4/13 on defense = 30.84%.....2/13 on ST = 15.42

By position:

3 TE – 3/13 = 23.13%... 1 DT – 1/13 = 7.71%
1 OT – 1/13 = 7.71%... 1 LB – 1/13 = 7.71%
3 G – 3/13 = 23.13%... 1 CB – 1/13 = 7.71%
1 FS – 1/13 = 7.71%

In this round it appears that Parcells again favors the offense here, although special teams enter in as the anomaly usually present somewhere in a numerical analysis. Paging “The One”,………sorry wrong musing. If the pick is for the offense Parcells will either take an interior lineman or TE. On the defensive side he will spread the picks out throughout the defense.

Round 6: 18 total picks

By position:

11/18 on offense = 61%......................7/18 on defense = 39%

1 QB – 1/18 = 5.55%... 2 DT – 2/18 = 11.10%
3 WR – 3/18 = 16.65%... 1 DE – 1/18 = 5.55%
1 TE – 1/18 = 5.55%... 1 LB – 1/18 = 5.55%
2 OT – 2/18 = 11.10%... 3 CB – 3/18 = 16.65%
1 G – 1/18 = 5.55%...
3 RB – 3/18 = 16.65%...

Well do I have to say it,…..he like the offense once again. However, he will look to get a WR, RB and then O-lineman again. On the defensive side he appears to be after D-lineman and CB’s. I am really noticing that Parcells not matter what will take lineman, no matter which side of the ball it is. He likes to build the interior of his football team. Such Mantra is built on the old school style of football. It is amazing however that so many teams neglect it over the long haul, whilst teams like the Eagles constantly draft lineman and they remain competitive over the long haul. Can anyone name a Eagle WR other than TO over the last 8 years,…..I struggling after Reggie Brown.

Round 7:15 total picks

9/15 on offense = 60%.......................6/15 on defense = 40%

By position:

1 QB – 1/15 = 6.66%... 1 DT – 1/15 = 6.66%
1 WR – 1/15 = 6.66%... 1 DE – 1/15 = 6.66%
2 TE – 2/15 = 13.32%... 1 LB – 1/15 = 6.66%
2 OT – 2/15 = 13.32%... 3 CB – 3/15 = 19.98%
1 G – 1/15 = 6.66%...
2 C – 2/15 = 13.32%...

Again Parcells favors the offense, and really tries to grab O-lineman here. 33% of the total picks are O-lineman. He’s trying to get guys he sees with potential, that he can mold here. It is interesting that he does it here. I almost think BP does this here to stop his FA prospects from getting snatched up by others. No competition here. On defense he will look for a diamond in the rough for the defensive backfield, and again, not many safeties.

In my previous post that I attached earlier in the text I had this: (more after this Mock, keep reading)!!!!!

Round 1 - Chris Long:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/nflcombineprofile.php?pyid=33806
I have thought about this choice quite a bit over the last few days. I keep hearing how Miami is presently up Dorsey’s *** with a petree dish and tweezers so I have to consider both him and Chris Long as the front runners for the #1 overall. And, after seeing his arm measurements of almost 35” there is no longer a question in my mind as to if he has the length required for the DE in a two gap 3-4. If the level of interest we are hearing is true, and I believe it is as it from the gurus, then it might be a two horse race between Long and Dorsey. The apparent lack of interest in J. Long IMO lends credence to my hypothesis. Matt Ryan is being used as bait, pure and simple. He will probably be a good pro QB, but he isn’t worth the #1 overall in my view, at least not to us. Chris Long will be the pick IMO because of what he can bring to the table as far a SOLB. He can help control the run on the strong side, and provide some pass rush. Bringing in Long also allows us to keep Porter on the weak side, where he had the spent his career until last season. Also because the contract demands of a of a OLB are a little less in the end. Also Long will get more of a chance to show why he is getting paid, where as Dorsey will be lost to common fan, and thus bring about their ire for the lack of “big plays”. I know this is rather brief, and superficial but I think this pick has been debated to death and I can’t offer a new take, and won’t.

Round 2a - James Hardy: http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/nflcombineprofile.php?pyid=33065
Here is where the information I examined earlier plays a big part for me. Seeing how surprisingly enamored with receivers as BP is, and how Henning’s offense requires them, I think the Fins will look to fill this need earlier than most would think. Parcells and co. signed Ernest Wilford to be a big receiving threat – size wise. Wilford should excel in that role, unfortunately to expect Wilford to become a solid #2 after being a #3 on a mediocre Jaguars receiving corp is a bit much. Having Wilford means having an experienced guy, who can start the season, and eventually give way to Hardy later on. Dan Henning has utilized a big receiver in his last two stops as OC; the Jets and Carolina. Chances are he will want one this time around, and so will Parcells. Hardy is just an amazing athlete, and can go up and make the big grab. He does need some refinement in route running, but who doesn’t at WR? Malcom Kelly, or Limas Sweed are also possibilities, for an early name call. If we don’t get a WR early, we will in all likelihood look at Jordy Nelson, or Paul Hubbard in rounds 4-5. However, should none of these guys be there at #32, I think we could consider Antoine Cason to play CB. At this pick I am trying to get value, much as BP and Ireland will, Cason at #32 is a great value, and fills a need.

Round 2b – Kendall Langford:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/nflcombineprofile.php?pyid=56382
Langford creates some added flexibility to the defensive front, and should play the weak side for us. His weight has fluctuated from the low 300’s to 275lbs for the Senior Bowl. To my eye this fluctuation was caused more so by his desire to show that he was a pass rushing DE, who command the big dollars as opposed to the natural 3-4 DE that he is. Langford was only doing what he thought would give the best chance to raise his draft stock. Langford can play both the DE position for us, or kick inside on pass rushing situations. He has some natural pass rushing ability which could come in handy. He has the lateral agility that I think is necessary for the position especially the weak side. If Langford is gone my first choice to replace his position would be Dre Moore. He is tweener, plays a little tall to be a full time DT, but as a 3-4 DE he may be a natural fit. He does disappear in the mix sometimes, so getting him in some more space might help him show up more consistently. Again he has good lateral agility and 33 3/8’ arms. If these two guys are not here Parcells might look to see if Gosder Cherilus is still available for RT, which he might not be, or for an ILB like Cliff Avril, Jared Meyo, or Curtis Lofton if any are there.

Round 3 – Duane Brown:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/nflcombineprofile.php?pyid=11685
In Brown the Fins get a player who should excel at RT. Brown played last year at LT, where he struggled a bit especially early. However, the two before that he was a solid RT for VT. Coming from a program like VT, we know Brown knows how to run block. Brown is one of those guys who won’t wow you with power, or the sweet feet of a LT, but he gets the job done. He is just a solid prospect at RT IMO. He will struggle with speed rushers a little, but isn’t that what OT’s struggle with anyways? The fact that Brown has played some LT is helpful, in that he will be probably asked to switch to the left side if Carey goes down. If Brown is gone, we might reach a little and grab John Greco, who we have shown a lot of interest in. But IMO he might be better suited at G than RT, but Parcells just likes tough guys there. He wants a RT who is tough, physical and powerful and both Brown and Greco are just that. If for some reason neither is here we might look to grab Charles Godfrey, this is of course assuming we never drafted Cason either. Godfrey is a strong, speedy, physical corner who can cover most guys. He does need some technique work, but is solid, even on ST.

Round 4 – Jeremy Zuttah:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/nflcombineprofile.php?pyid=33570
Zuttah, in my opinion will be asked to move inside, where he can use his 35 reps in the bench to move DT’s instead of DE’s. Zuttah is another tough, hardnosed guy who won’t win any dancing competitions, but he will knock the snot out of you. Rutgers doesn’t like passing, ask Ray Rice. Zuttah was big part of his running success and should be a viable option for us. Being that was a OT he should fit the mold of tall, long and mobile that BP seems to covet. If Zuttah is gone, we make look to Donald Thomas as a replacement. If we don’t go offensive line here, I think this will be a prime time for Parcells to draft a stack and shed type LB. Phillip Wheeler, Beau Bell come to mind but really this draft is weak on ILB for our needs IMO. There are some OLB that could kick inside such as Ezra Butler or Brian Kehl. We could also look at Tyvon Branch as aproject at CB aswell.

Round 6 – Caleb Campbell:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/nflcombineprofile.php?pyid=55391
Let’s be honest, at this point I’m just guessing like the rest of you. Campbell is tough and has a nose for the ball, and seems to have good character. If Campbell isn’t there I personally would like to take flier on Jack Ikewuono, who is injured, but was considered a pretty good prospect before the injury. I could see him lasting this long because of it. We found Rodrique Wright this way, and it wouldn’t hurt here either. Andre Guillon might be nice fit as a DE too at this juncture, he’s need a lot of work but who doesn’t here. The QB position could be addressed here with the addition of Kevin O’Connell, or Stuart Brink. Both of whom are nice developmental guys who have some upside IMO.

Round 7 – Mike Gibson:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/nflcombineprofile.php?pyid=72877
A versatile guy who can play several positions, and considering our needs along the O-line a guy like this can’t hurt. He will most likely be on the interior in the pro game. After this it really becomes fill in the blank here, as almost anyone left is possible.


Now after going by the numbers based on round by round tendencies I thought I should update my Mock Draft accordingly. By the way the guest pass for the links I used before has expired, so most won’t be able to see them, so I figured you guys could look them up, if you didn’t already know them off by heart. What, you think I’m going to do all the work all the time?

Updated Mock Draft:

Round 1 - C. Long – DE/OLB – Do I have to do this again? No………thanks guys you are nice.

Round 2 - James Hardy – WR – I had said that I think Cherilus is a reach here and I still think so. If Hardy is here I think they really look at him. Antoine Cason might be the only other contender, though the numbers don’t agree. I’ll have to have him as personal choice. The numbers I presented in this text would say that I should put Jared Mayo, ILB – Tennessee here. He might be the Parcells pick here as an ILB, which he does prefer if the pick is defensive.

Round 2b -Duane Brown – OT – Previously I had him taken in the 3rd Round, but I think after seeing the numbers reflect that the most D-lineman are taken in Round 4 Langford dropped off the Mock. I also had Dre Moore here, whom I love to death. As a two gap 3-4 DE, he is perfect, and I’ve said it before, many, many times. If they do take a DL here, which they rarely do, my personal preference is Moore at this stage. Overall however the numbers dictate that I put Brown, or an OT here.

Round 3 - John Greco – OT - The afore mentioned Brown was here, and Greco was listed as replacement. Now, after looking into it further, and seeing that Greco was a LT in college, thus making his move to LG that much easier. Easier that is if you believe in tendencies like CK has mentioned until he is blue in the face. Wait………….someone said tendency……hhhmmmm. I also had Charles Godfrey here and I really think he’d be the guy if we went defense. Once again the D-lineman will probably come next.

Round 4 - DeMario Pressley – DT – Pressley fits the mold of what we want in terms of size, although he is a guy who will need a fire lit under him. He, like Moore has long arms (Pressley 34”) and the body type. He might not the perfect fit at DE but his size, and the way he plays make him perfect for the DE position we need. I think that being on this team, with the guys we have coaching, getting under someone’s skin shouldn’t be too hard. Carlton Powell might be a guy to consider here, but needs to gain some weight. We have been paying a great deal of attention to this guy however, and wouldn’t be surprised to hear his name here. Tyvon Branch is a guy I personally like. Also if we go away from Hardy early, James Hubbard would be a nice guy to look at here.

Round 6a - Jack Ikegwuono – CB – If there is any better value at CB here I don’t know where it is. He is injured but before the injury he was considered a very good prospect. He is tough, and will tackle the run and I’d really like to take a flier on him here. The numbers say I should have a RB or WR here, but if we take Hardy early, I can’t see us going back to the well again. Besides, the numbers do say that if the pick is defensive, it will be a CB. Ikegwuono could heal and probably be ready to contribute by the end of the season. Or , we can place him on IR and basically bring him along like Rodrique Wright.

Round 6b - Letroy Guion – DT – Here is another guy who fits the mold of the tall, long and agile DE we need. Guion is considered a 3 technique inside, but he may have more value as a pass rusher in the 3-4 from the DE spot. He may never become more than a wave player, but depth I something we need on the D-line aswell.

Round 7a Mike Gibson – OG – Gibson is versatile and can play most positions on the O-line, to me that means he has value here. Thadeus Coleman might be a guy to look at here as well, we have contact with him.

Round 7b - Sam Keller – QB – he has all the tools, but he may never get it together enough to be more than a backup. We need someone to groom, and with the talent he has, he would be worth the flier.


Well, there you go. Most of the alternates are the same, as in my previous Mock Draft, so I kind of just glanced over them. Once again these numbers are open to interpretation by the reader, and are not to be de facto in use. I know this too will ruffle some feathers, but hey good debate is healthy. I hope you enjoy this as much as I did putting it together, I think it is very revealing. Thanks for taking the time to read it.

 

Yes I do, we need depth along the defensive front.

Soliai is a question mark to backup Ferguson, so we need someone.