Pff refo

If you look solely at the PFF grades you would think we beat them by 14.

"ckparrothead wrote:

LOL now you see what I'm talking about.

PFF has already changed Tannehill's +3.0 for the game to +1.0.

See what I mean by big swings in the scoring after they start going through reviews?

Sometimes common sense prevails ...

"vt_dolfan wrote:

Why because he said Tannehill didnt do that bad of a job?

Its funny...yet again he grades out high..WHILE LEARNING A NEW OFFENSE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 7 YEARS....but now all the sudden..PFF's stats are junk. Second week in a row...

Personally I have been stating for the past few years that PFF ratings are a bunch of junk.

Stats like PFF mean absolutely nothing. The eye test is what counts and the eye test yesterday clearly showed that Tannehill was a below average QB and was outplayed by the second year QB of the Bills, who also had a very average game.

I sometimes think if you guys ONLY watch tannehill and the dolphins. Cuz I watch a lot of football and I see a lot qb's making bad throws, even the great ones. Probably just as many as tannehill too.

I watched that jets and packers games and the amount of passes arod threw that receivers had to go low on or readjust would just have this board going crazy if it was tannehill.

"rtl1334 wrote:

I think you are missing a long gimme that went through Hartline's hands

That wasn't a TD and even if it was it still doesn't excuse the other throws. You don't get to play terrible, make two throws and everything is okay.

FWIW There was nothing special about the pass to Miller. It was a defensive breakdown and a throw you'd better make.

"Alex44 wrote:

That wasn't a TD and even if it was it still doesn't excuse the other throws. You don't get to play terrible, make two throws and everything is okay.

FWIW There was nothing special about the pass to Miller. It was a defensive breakdown and a throw you'd better make.

How was that not a TD?

"Alex44 wrote:

That wasn't a TD and even if it was it still doesn't excuse the other throws. You don't get to play terrible, make two throws and everything is okay.

FWIW There was nothing special about the pass to Miller. It was a defensive breakdown and a throw you'd better make.

As well we are dealing with mis-timed and wrong depth routes. The issues are not just Tannehill and I tend to think some of the bad misfires have more to do with the above than some inability to throw the football.

"cdnfinfan wrote:

I sometimes think if you guys ONLY watch tannehill and the dolphins. Cuz I watch a lot of football and I see a lot qb's making bad throws, even the great ones. Probably just as many as tannehill too.

I watched that jets and packers games and the amount of passes arod threw that receivers had to go low on or readjust would just have this board going crazy if it was tannehill.

Don't worry - he'll get run out of town and will end up in Tampa, Arizona or Cleveland and end up an all-pro.

"cdnfinfan wrote:

I sometimes think if you guys ONLY watch tannehill and the dolphins. Cuz I watch a lot of football and I see a lot qb's making bad throws, even the great ones. Probably just as many as tannehill too.

I watched that jets and packers games and the amount of passes arod threw that receivers had to go low on or readjust would just have this board going crazy if it was tannehill.

I agree...but you never hear that from most others..

"rtl1334 wrote:

How was that not a TD?

That was almost guaranteed TD.

If you look at the Special Teams grades for the game, they certainly pass the eyeball test. Fields (shanks), Landry (facemask ball) and Williams (blew the block on the blocked punt) are the bottom three.

Further, the grades that were high for the defensive players mainly came out of run defense, which to me also fits...we pretty much had the run stopped except for the 1 breakout big run. No defender did better than average in pass coverage. Grimes at +.7 and Jenkins at +.5 were the best there.

Top 4 grades on offense were Albert +3.7, James +3.2, Williams +2.2, Satele +1.6. Think that's fair. Williams sure looked better than Miller IMHO.

Seems like once the stats go through QC, they're much better. Maybe they shouldn't be in such a rush to have them out before QC.

"vt_dolfan wrote:

Honestly...

For all you ready to throw Tannehill under the bus....if PFF had come out with stats that showed he played bad....youd be all over them..SEE SEE....I TOLD YOU SO.

But, when the game tape is actually broken down...and you find that...oh guess what..he actually didnt play that bad, now all the sudden PFF is junk.

That's because PFF plays make-believe with the stats, then adjusts them accordingly. For example, if a receiver drops a ball, they give the QB credit for completing that pass and it's yardage in their final grade. If a TD pass is dropped, they receive credit there too. On the other hand, they don't penalize poorly thrown passes if they're caught, and they don't penalize heavily for sacks, poor reads, missing open receivers or dozens of other factors.

In the end, it just so happens that Tannehill's dropped passes are enough to put him ahead of most QB's, but it is also very biased towards innaccurate QB's since they get credit whether the pass is actually completed or not. I'm sorry, but you can't base stats on things that didn't happen.

"KeyFin wrote:

That's because PFF plays make-believe with the stats, then adjusts them accordingly. For example, if a receiver drops a ball, they give the QB credit for completing that pass and it's yardage in their final grade. If a TD pass is dropped, they receive credit there too. On the other hand, they don't penalize poorly thrown passes if they're caught, and they don't penalize heavily for sacks, poor reads, missing open receivers or dozens of other factors.

I specifically remember against TB in the pre-season, where Tannehill was docked for that stuff...poor reads, missed opportunities and inaccuracy. He was in the negative in the red for that game.

"rtl1334 wrote:

I think we must realize how shockingly rare it is for NFL receivers to drop the passes that Sims, Clay, Hartline and Miller have dropped the past two weeks.PFF accounts as if Tannehill made those plays whereas the receiver missed the play. There's some belief that some of these horrible misfires (ie Gibson) were actually wrong routes by the receiver.Bottom line, I don't think any player in the NFL is under as much microscopic scrutiny from the fan base as Tannehill. I just don't see how this will translate into longterm success for the player here. He strikes me as the type of player that will be run out of Miami only to rise up (hopefully not NE) and reach his potential elsewhere.

Tannehill has always had issues with drops, batted balls, and ball placement. Even in college.

Going back to PFF grades, Earl Mitchell is their TOP rated DT after 2 weeks: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/09/16/earl-mitchell-making-a-big-splash-on-dolphins-defensive-line/

Through two games he’s currently our (all 22 review pending) top ranked defensive tackle, turning 80 snaps into a fantastic +7.7 grade. What’s more he’s been anything but one dimensional, leading his peers with a 21.2 run stop percentage score and sitting in the top 10 of our pass rushing productivity ranks for defensive tackles.

Brandon Albert is the TOP rated OT: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/09/16/top-10-offensive-tackles/

And James is ranked #6 as well.

1. Branden Albert, LT (MIA) +7.1

So far playing up to the huge contract he signed to come over from the Chiefs.

...

6. Ja’Wuan James, RT (MIA) +4.1

Is that nervous looks I see from the draftniks who pronounced him over-drafted?

PFF also has this interesting article defending Tannehill and their ranking him as the #3 rated QB after 2 weeks: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/09/17/analysis-notebook-week-2-3/

Tannehill has suffered from seven dropped passes already this season (only Joe Flacco has experienced more). He has lost 113 yards of passes due to drops (at a minimum – that only counts the yards in the air the ball traveled, not the potential yards after the catch the receiver lost by dropping the ball). That is more than any other passer in the league, including Flacco. If you add those plays into his official stats his passer rating jumps twenty points into the 90s. Sure, you could do that for every quarterback, but as we have already pointed out, Tanneill has suffered more than most from his receivers not helping him out.

It’s important to make the point, however, that we’re not trying to say Tannehill has been fantastic. Tannehill has also had some very bad passes that have received heavy downgrades. Also against the Patriots he had a chance to hit another touchdown and instead threw an interception, handing the ball to the Patriots to begin a drive they later scored from.

After two weeks of the season the ranking are what they are – vulnerable to being influenced by a couple of big plays either way, or simply a run of good or bad form over two games that a player will not sustain over sixteen. The difference between being No. 3 in the rankings and No. 15 are probably three or four throws – we are dealing with very small sample sizes here, but we shouldn’t dismiss the play of Tannehill just because the raw numbers don’t match. Are we saying Ryan Tannehill is better than Peyton Manning because he has graded higher over two games? Of course not.

But Tannehill has made tougher throws more frequently and runs an offense far less predicated on three-step drop quick passes. While Manning has averaged less than two seconds per pass, the quickest in the league, Tannehill has the ball in his hands on average half a second longer per passing attempt. That’s a middle of the pack figure but more importantly it’s extra time that pass rush has to get to him and make his life tougher. Manning has felt pressure on just 10 snaps this season while Tannehill has had 25 plays where he has been pressured.

The more they explain to try and defend themselves the more obvious it looks that there are some serious flaws in how they grade.

"ckparrothead wrote:

The more they explain to try and defend themselves the more obvious it looks that there are some serious flaws in how they grade.

When I read that I think that they're either very right or very wrong, because nothing else agrees with them.

"ckparrothead wrote:

The more they explain to try and defend themselves the more obvious it looks that there are some serious flaws in how they grade.

They did that because they got hammered with Tweets about RT.

PFFs defense pretty much confirms a lot of the shortcomings of their ratings.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

They did that because they got hammered with Tweets about RT.

The bottom line is they're even backing off their own methodologies which suggests they recognize something is wrong. They initially graded Tannehill a +3.0 for the game. They got hammered with bad tweets and suddenly it's +1.0.

The cumulative offensive grade for the Dolphins had been something like +7.6 or something like that. Now it's down to +1.4.

These guys are basically being called out for ratings that look completely contrary to the video evidence and they're backing off while simultaneously writing things that suggest they're right and everyone else is wrong.

Now you look at their defense of the Tannehill rating and a couple of things stand out. For one they start jimmying his passer rating based on yardage missed due to drops, but they don't give any context as to what other passers would look like if they did the same. They just insist that it's happening to him more than the other passers, without giving any ideas of HOW MUCH more. If Tannehill is missing 114 yards due to drops and the other guys are missing 90 yards due to drops then yeah Tannehill is getting victimized by this MORE than the others, but the difference is so marginal that the defense becomes paper thin.

The second thing that stands out and is a big concern is evidently they're rewarding Tannehill more for holding the ball longer, putting himself at more of a likelihood of getting pressured. They basically say to hell with Peyton Manning and his 3-step drop completions, he doesn't get any positive marks for that. But in reality, yeah he should. It's not like it's so much easier to execute those plays. They're essentially discounting pre-snap work.

And I also can't imagine their ratings are capturing ball placement, because Tannehill's has been as bad as I've seen from him the first two games.

It's funny but I started tweeting the other day about how laughable it was that PFF gave Miami's offense a +3.2 cumulative offensive rating against the Bills despite our only scoring 10 points...whereas teams that scored 28 or 30 points like the Bears and Patriots got -1.2 and -2.7 grades.

But now I notice that those scores have all been tweeked. The Bears and Patriots are now both -0.7's and the Dolphins are now -3.3. So Miami has gone from a +3.2 to -3.3 cumulative offensive grade...a 6.5 point swing.

And you look at it, nobody on the offense was immune from the downgrades. Branden Albert had rating somewhere around +3.2 or +3.4 points before, now he's down to a +2.7. Why? Probably for no other reason than that they just needed to get Miami's grades down.

Here's your definitive piece of info on the matter:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

...and here:

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB

These statistics are actually strongly related to winning, whereas I'm unaware of any such relationship for PFF's player grades.

"ckparrothead wrote:

It's funny but I started tweeting the other day about how laughable it was that PFF gave Miami's offense a +3.2 cumulative offensive rating against the Bills despite our only scoring 10 points...whereas teams that scored 28 or 30 points like the Bears and Patriots got -1.2 and -2.7 grades.

But now I notice that those scores have all been tweeked. The Bears and Patriots are now both -0.7's and the Dolphins are now -3.3. So Miami has gone from a +3.2 to -3.3 cumulative offensive grade...a 6.5 point swing.

And you look at it, nobody on the offense was immune from the downgrades. Branden Albert had rating somewhere around +3.2 or +3.4 points before, now he's down to a +2.7. Why? Probably for no other reason than that they just needed to get Miami's grades down.

Initial grades go through a few rounds of QC checks and get adjusted, at least, that's what their model says.

You strongly agreed with their analysis of RT in the TB game. Maybe the Buff game was a newer set of analysts who missed some crucial elements...and got corrected by the QC dudes.

I can't see them adjusting them that much just because of some Tweets.

Edit: Looks like they're putting the initial stuff out too fast...3 or 4 days after the game for the full info.

"Dolphans Unite! wrote:

Here's your definitive piece of info on the matter:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

...and here:

http://wp.advancedfootballanalytics.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB

These statistics are actually strongly related to winning, whereas I'm unaware of any such relationship for PFF's player grades.

Just skimming through that second link, their ratings seem to mesh more with what I see with my own eyes. I don't dislike PFF but some of their grades are real strange, to say the least. AFA seems to be more on point.

Miami has the best rated defense in the NFL on PFF and it's not close. They have a +38.3, followed by the Panthers at +22.3 and the Eagles at +12.8. Everyone else is in single digits or negative.

The problem with that is we've allowed 42 points of offense in two games, and that's not counting the kickoff return touchdown by Spiller. Miami ranks 16th in points allowed purely on defense yet they are rated far, far, far, far, far and away the best defense in the NFL.