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Pff refo

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Phoenician Fan, Sep 15, 2014.

  1. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The more they explain to try and defend themselves the more obvious it looks that there are some serious flaws in how they grade.
     
  2. emocomputerjock

    emocomputerjock Senior Member

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    When I read that I think that they're either very right or very wrong, because nothing else agrees with them.
     
  3. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    They did that because they got hammered with Tweets about RT.
     
  4. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    PFFs defense pretty much confirms a lot of the shortcomings of their ratings.

    Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk
     
  5. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    The bottom line is they're even backing off their own methodologies which suggests they recognize something is wrong. They initially graded Tannehill a +3.0 for the game. They got hammered with bad tweets and suddenly it's +1.0.

    The cumulative offensive grade for the Dolphins had been something like +7.6 or something like that. Now it's down to +1.4.

    These guys are basically being called out for ratings that look completely contrary to the video evidence and they're backing off while simultaneously writing things that suggest they're right and everyone else is wrong.

    Now you look at their defense of the Tannehill rating and a couple of things stand out. For one they start jimmying his passer rating based on yardage missed due to drops, but they don't give any context as to what other passers would look like if they did the same. They just insist that it's happening to him more than the other passers, without giving any ideas of HOW MUCH more. If Tannehill is missing 114 yards due to drops and the other guys are missing 90 yards due to drops then yeah Tannehill is getting victimized by this MORE than the others, but the difference is so marginal that the defense becomes paper thin.

    The second thing that stands out and is a big concern is evidently they're rewarding Tannehill more for holding the ball longer, putting himself at more of a likelihood of getting pressured. They basically say to hell with Peyton Manning and his 3-step drop completions, he doesn't get any positive marks for that. But in reality, yeah he should. It's not like it's so much easier to execute those plays. They're essentially discounting pre-snap work.

    And I also can't imagine their ratings are capturing ball placement, because Tannehill's has been as bad as I've seen from him the first two games.
     
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  6. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    It's funny but I started tweeting the other day about how laughable it was that PFF gave Miami's offense a +3.2 cumulative offensive rating against the Bills despite our only scoring 10 points...whereas teams that scored 28 or 30 points like the Bears and Patriots got -1.2 and -2.7 grades.

    But now I notice that those scores have all been tweeked. The Bears and Patriots are now both -0.7's and the Dolphins are now -3.3. So Miami has gone from a +3.2 to -3.3 cumulative offensive grade...a 6.5 point swing.

    And you look at it, nobody on the offense was immune from the downgrades. Branden Albert had rating somewhere around +3.2 or +3.4 points before, now he's down to a +2.7. Why? Probably for no other reason than that they just needed to get Miami's grades down.
     
  7. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    Stringer Bell likes this.
  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Initial grades go through a few rounds of QC checks and get adjusted, at least, that's what their model says.

    You strongly agreed with their analysis of RT in the TB game. Maybe the Buff game was a newer set of analysts who missed some crucial elements...and got corrected by the QC dudes.

    I can't see them adjusting them that much just because of some Tweets.

    Edit: Looks like they're putting the initial stuff out too fast...3 or 4 days after the game for the full info.
     
  9. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Just skimming through that second link, their ratings seem to mesh more with what I see with my own eyes. I don't dislike PFF but some of their grades are real strange, to say the least. AFA seems to be more on point.
     
  10. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Miami has the best rated defense in the NFL on PFF and it's not close. They have a +38.3, followed by the Panthers at +22.3 and the Eagles at +12.8. Everyone else is in single digits or negative.

    The problem with that is we've allowed 42 points of offense in two games, and that's not counting the kickoff return touchdown by Spiller. Miami ranks 16th in points allowed purely on defense yet they are rated far, far, far, far, far and away the best defense in the NFL.
     
  11. Alex44

    Alex44 Boshosaurus Rex

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    Well you could say because the defense has been put in positions that looked like easy TD drives and held them to three or less points on those.

    Not to say I agree we've been the best bur I think the point total is misleading.
     
  12. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    They get the team total by adding individual player totals...it's not really indicative of the "whole team" performance...nor should it be considered as such.

    In that defense rating is also a negative for special teams.
     
  13. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    I think PFF's problem is that they're evaluating plays without assigning them any relative value in terms of their effect on the outcome of the game.

    Consequently, when Ryan Tannehill misses a touchdown throw that would've increased the team's probability of winning a great deal, for example, it isn't weighted any more heavily than the good throw he made that had relatively little if any impact on the outcome of the game. You then come away with a number (the PFF player grade) that corresponds poorly with how the educated viewer evaluated the player with his own eyes and intuition.
     
  14. Clark Kent

    Clark Kent Fighter of the Nightman

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    In defense of Ryan Tannehill (and I guess PFF), Tannehill should have 3 more TD's, in addition to 100+ yards passing. Those TD drops/non catches are a bigger factor in PFF's rankings than the 100+ yardage and you glossed over that. Tannehill QB rating right now is 76.1. The yardage and TD's of those three non TD catches elevate Tannehill to a QB rating near 100. In addition, if Brian Hartline doesn't drop that TD catch against buffalo, Ryan Tannehill doesn't throw an interception on that drive. We're talking about a 6-1 TD/INT ratio.

    Frankly, I don't know why PFF would go out of their way to make Tannehill look better over other QB's. If they're suggesting RT has been victimized more so than any other QB, I can believe it. 3 specific drops cost Miami/Tannehill 3 TD's and 150 yards passing in two games. That is ridiculously high. Extrapolate that throughout the season and the numbers would be staggering. Again, that's not even including all of the drops, just the three that were for TD's. So yeah, I do believe Tannehill has been let down by receivers at an alarming rate.

    That isn't to say Tannehill isn't getting a favorable edit... He is. The ball placement this season has been terrible. For instance, that wide open Gibson misfire that lead to our first 3 points, for what would have been a sure TD, was inexcusable. I think it's fair and far more accurate to say, Tannehill and the receivers have all played pretty poorly. Albeit at different moments and PFF is wrong about Tannehill being the No. 3 ranked QB based on metrics.
     

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