PFF's AFC East QB Pressure Profiles by Steve Palazzolo

Not hard for a team to watch every snap and determine whether or not the Qb's release was affected by pressure, numbers should be pretty accurate..

 

I would guess that the Pressure vs. No Pressure distinction should be pretty clear. (I would be more hesitant with their assessments of blame). I liked that they said about Tannehill,

Finding a weakness in his game was difficult and if he continues to maintain his poise while showing an ability to make more plays in the middle of the field, he has a chance to stay right in the middle of the conversation with the other top-notch quarterbacks in the class of 2012.

That's been my contention about RT and the other young QBs all offseason. And Brady with a 71.2 rating under pressure is basically the same QB as RT with a 68.6 pressure rating.

 

I'd like to see where Andrew Lucks ranks on this. The way he evaded pressure and made plays vs Miami last year, he did it all season long. Dude is a friggin magician back there.

 

[table="width: 700, class: grid"]
[tr]
[td]QB[/td]
[td]DropBacks[/td]
[td]Comp%[/td]
[td]Y/Att[/td]
[td]TD[/td]
[td]INT[/td]
[td]Sack%[/td]
[td]Knockdown%[/td]
[td]PFF[/td]
[td]QB rat[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Tannehill[/td]
[td]163[/td]
[td]50.8%[/td]
[td]7.1[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]21.5%[/td]
[td]43.6%[/td]
[td]4.6[/td]
[td]68.6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Luck[/td]
[td]289[/td]
[td]39.4%[/td]
[td]6.1[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[td]14.9%[/td]
[td]43.6%[/td]
[td]-1.6[/td]
[td]56[/td]
[/tr]

[/table]

Also, page 3 of the article that I got those numbers from: Link goes on to show that when it comes to pressure from the edges (LT & RT) Tannehill is Top 5 in the league against. That puts him in the company of Rodgers, Brady, Newton & Eli.

Here, I think we have examples of stats disproving 3 common held beliefs.

-#1 was that for our team, LT is the most important line position. -Its not.
-#2 was that Tannehill had problems with pocket awareness. -He doesn't.
-#3 Luck was magic with pressure. -He isn't.

 

My favourite part of the other teams breakdown was this:

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets
Strengths: None

 

I think what you have is stats which disagree with some commonly held beliefs. The only way to know for certain is to sit down and study the games. I'm on Colts game #9 and from what I've seen so far Luck is no worse than 2nd in the league behind Rodgers in pocket mobility. Maybe the last 8 games will be different, if not then I'll have to say that this is one instance where the stats are wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

 

How are you qualifying pocket mobility? These numbers show, he is worse under pressure than Tannehill.

How can your views on his pocket mobility counter the fact that he completes less than 40% of his passes when under pressure?

 

What I'm talking about is the ability to anticipate, evade and make plays under pressure. Luck does things that are hard to believe, and he does them consistently. I thought the game he had vs Miami was luck, no pun intended, but it wasn't. He's made similar plays in every game I've watched so far.

As for the stats, I don't take PFF as gospel, I take their numbers slightly more seriously than I do the ones at ESPN. You seem to be assuming that these numbers are accurately recorded and put into context. From what I've seen I'll have to disagree.

 

See, I'd assume the grade is debatable, but completion %? I mean I can understand a point or two difference, but you really think they are so WAY off on the 39.4% number to the point you can say Luck is actually accurate under pressure?

In turn, does that mean the numbers on Tanny are super off too? And if so is worse or better than they are saying? If not, why would the numbers be so far off for Luck and not Tanny?

 

Extrapolate what he did to us in one game........freakazoid.

 

This is where stats can get you in serious trouble, especially if your allowing them to influence front office decision making.

 

You're speaking in generalities and my questions are very specific.

Is Luck only completing about 40% of his passes while under pressure?

 

I watched several of Luck's games last season and my take away about his game compared to RT's was that Luck was better at anticipating and avoiding pressure but much less accurate as a passer. I think that's what's reflected in the stats above. And when RT healed up a bit during the last part of the season, RT was almost as good at avoiding pressure. The only advantage Luck had over the healthy RT IMO was his anticipation of pressure. I think that was probably an experience factor. That's why I have been saying that I see RT's ceiling as good or better than any of the young QBs from last year's class.

 

I don't know what methodology PFF used to get those numbers so I cant say if they're accurate or not.

All I'm saying is that based on what I've seen, Luck is a beast when under pressure. He's got some Roethlisberger to him, shrugging off would be sackers, throwing while in the grasp, anticipating, evading, stepping up, fading away, sliding left/right, rolling left/right, throwing from different platforms and angles, he does it all, he makes plays while doing it, and he does it week in and week out. I haven't seen anyone else in the league do it at that level outside of Rodgers. Clearly PFF has a different view and I respect that, but it doesn't change my opinion.

 

I saw Luck make a lot of WOW plays. I'm curious to see if Tanne can do the same now that he has some experience and some decent weapons to throw to. I think Tanne's biggest advantages over Luck are arm talent and decision making. Luck's balls will flutter out on occasion, he doesn't throw the deep sideline routes with as much zip and he struggles to get the ball into the ultra tight windows. I think he's going to struggle in bad weather games, wind especially.

Luck seemed to throw the ball to the other team more than Tannehill did. Part of that is throwing more often than RT, but Luck seems to get away with a few ill advised throws just about every week. He hit Sean Smith in the hands twice when we played Indy and the TD he threw to Hilton in the 3rd quarter should have been an easy INT for Smith as well. Meanwhile RT had 13 INTs IIRC and I'd say at least half of them were either tipped balls, drops, bad routes or balls he forced while trailing late in games. He certainly didn't benefit from a bunch of dropped by the defense.

 

Narrowed down to just the completion percentage, if the 40% number is accurate, wouldn't that change your view? I mean, isn't it possible you're enamored with his ability to not get sacked, but are ignoring the fact he isn't doing anything productive with the ball while evading the rush?

I'm just beginning to wonder if facts are going to ignored because we want to justify our preconceived notions.

It seems people are dividing themselves up between either game film or stats, and I think they both need to be combined to give an accurate picture. Stats don't tell context but we don't see everything or see things that aren't happening.

 

My pre-conceived notion was that Luck was overrated, a media made star before he ever played a snap, that Tanne performed just as well as he did but had lesser talent around him. What changed my view was when I started going through Luck's games. Ironically, I was looking for evidence to support my notions only to come away thinking that I was wrong about him fairly quickly. So no, I'm not clinging to what I originally thought. Conversely, I'd respectfully ask you how many of Luck's games you've watched? You seem to have an opion of him that's somewhat similar to the one I had before I watched him closely. Perhaps your opinion would change as well.

 

I used the word "we" in hopes that would get across that I wasn't singling you out specifically with that comment. I failed. I sincerely don't want this to go down hill, so i'll try this again:

Do you really think PFF saying Luck's completion % when under pressure was 40% is inaccurate? This seems like a fairly straight forward statistic to compile...yes?

 

Luck also threw many more bad passes than RT did. Those completion percentage numbers aren't a judgment call. Fact is that even though just about everybody conceded that Luck had better receivers last season, he had a far lower completion %. My read on Luck going in was that he was very accurate, but compared to RT he wasn't. Luck made more wow plays and he also benefitted from receivers that made more plays. But he also made more WTF plays.

 

I'm not sure that "under pressure" is as cut and dry as you might think. Do they count blitzes the same as 3-4 man pressures that produce "pressure". Do they account for down and distance, 3-5-7 step drops, play action? Do they count scrambles, throw aways and sacks? There's a lot that goes into it, do they have the same people/same standards for both players? Personally I put more stock into what I see on the film, others put more stock into stats, its all subjective IMO.

 

Whether this makes sense or not, your 2nd question is so vague and impossible to target it's useless to even try.

Imo, Luck is elite at feeling pressure, Elite at escaping pressure, and elite at making plays after he does both, Tannehill was no where near the same league..

Talk stats all you want, Luck has gifted play making ability, and I can only hope our boy can get in his stratosphere.

I do agree with Rafs in the area of accuracy, Luck was sailing a few more than Tannehill.

 

Do the stats show how he does what were talking about in critical situations?, there's a reason why he flipped his team into a playoff team bro, and I believe it has everything to do with his playmaking ability when protection breaks down..this is a critical trait in today's game.

 

IMO the healthier RT at the end of the season played very comparably to Luck. I don't see Luck as being in another stratosphere.

 

I feel like I'm asking a straightforward question and not getting a straightforward response.

I'm guessing you think it means the numbers are not accurate and are in fact way off. Since that's the case what do you believe Luck's completion percentage to be under pass rushing pressure? 50%? 75%?

 

Deej, there is no difference between some basic stats and tape watching. You're getting to the point where you're throwing anything with a number into the useless category. Its like you're saying a running back's yards per carry is as useless as ESPN's QBR. Some numbers are just as observational as you watching film. When PFF grades a player about something using their own formulas then I understand the skepticism, but if PFF is saying Player X ran for Y amount yards to the right, there's no reason to question that nor is there no reason to not use that info when trying to figure if said player has a problem or not running to the right side. Once you see if there's a problem, then you can figure out why...is it the RT? Is it the RB? etc.

I don't think there's any reason to argue the 40% completion number when under pressure. To be able to question it, then you have to refute it with your own numbers to prove its inaccurate. If its not inaccurate, then you cannot say Luck is great under pressure.

Again just because its a number doesn't mean its useless, and just because a person sees something doesn't make it true.

 

I think it's human nature to overweight the "wow" plays. I was and continue to be a huge Luck fan. Coming out he was the best prospect I have ever seen. But despite my man crush I work hard to make sure my evaluations are minimally influenced by either my expectations going in or the emotion of watching the "wow" plays. Early in the season Luck was making the "wow" plays and I gave him a pass for the inaccurate passes. At that same point RT was working in a very constrained offense. I assume he was told to not make the big mistake rather than go out and make the play. However as the season progressed RT's offense was opened up a bit (as Sherman admitted). And after RT recovered from his leg injury he started moving around in the pocket a great deal more. He kept plays alive longer. I often like to look at a player or team's last four games as a good representation of how they're playing now. When I look at the last quarter of the season and compare the two QBs, I see very comparable performances. In fact, until that second NE game, I would say that RT was playing better than Luck. Luck was still stronger and able to break more tackles, but they were equally quick and RT was far better at throwing while on the run and with his accuracy in general. Luck threw more uncatchable passes and more passes that required his receivers to bail him out by making great catches. RT had far fewer of those. It was really only Bess who made spectacular catches for RT this year. I think part of that is his size. Those same passes to Gibson won't require a spectacular catch. And Bess was gone for the end of the season anyways. I think that if you showed a scout who had no other knowledge of those players and no info that one team was in the playoffs tape of those two QBs over the last quarter of the season, that scout would rate those QBs pretty closely. If anything, he would rate RT as the slightly better prospect.

 

In the trait that I was referring to I think there's a substantial difference, Ryan evens the gap though in some other areas..

I know we saw some more mobility once the brace came off, but the reactionary time just wasn't there for Ryan last year to make plays on his own consistently.

 

would you think a qbr rating of 76 would completely turn around a franchise and get them from 2 to 11 wins, and a playoff birth?

Give me an example of "no difference in watching tape and some numbers?

Are you saying because two backs can have a 4.5 average you can essentially sign either one and your good?

 

Do we know if this stat accounts for scrambling then completions?

 

I don't know if anyone else is a fan of DVOA, but Football Outsiders call them the worst 11-5 team ever.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2012/final-2012-dvoa-ratings

Fans of WPA will see that stat reflected, and fans of DVOA will also see that the Colts overachieving is reflected as well.

 

I'm sure they had a pretty weak schedule..

 

That's reflected in their DVOA rankings. They adjust for the other team.

 

You're not following what I'm saying.

Let's take QB rating.

The formula for QB rating may be questionable, but the numbers used to determine QB rating are not. They are: Completions, Attempts, Interceptions, Yards & TDs. Those are all statistics. They are straightforward useful and can easily be counted through observation. If you want to question the formula for QB rating go right ahead, but to act like the stats used in the formula are wrong and not indicative of anything, makes no sense.

I don't think figuring up completion percentage while the qb his facing the rush is all that complicated or questionable. I think its barely a step above counting catches or TDs. if you want to question the numbers than go ahead, but you're unquantified observation is not good enough to say he didn't complete only 40% of his passes while under pressure.

 

I've been talking about a QB's ability to make plays when things break down as a key to evaluation for years. It is how you differentiate between a college QB who can put up great stats in a system and one who'll be a successful pro that can potentially win you playoff games and SBs. But it isn't the only thing to consider. If it were then Tebow would be one of the best in the league. A QB also needs to be able to make the system plays. How much (system plays vs. break down plays) depends on how good the surrounding team is.

IMO Luck was still slightly ahead of RT in making plays when things broke down. There were two factors that I believe accounted for a huge part of that. One is experience. Luck was just more decisive in those situations. That's his temporary advantage. I find that once a QB gets about 1000 pro attempts under his belt, the experience edge mostly goes away. That part of the playing field is leveled and success or failure in the mental aspect is mostly based on intelligence and film study. The second aspect in this case was the quality of the receivers. It's a lot easier to be decisive if your receiver gets the play right and gets open. Looking at that last NE game for example, RT didn't make plays and his stats sucked. But rewatching the coach's tape on rewind (love it! btw) it seems to me that most of the time the play wasn't there to make. On more than half of those sacks no receiver was open. RT seemed to go through his full progression and have no options. I think that if I had been in the same situation I would have said screw it and ended up with about 20 rushing attempts. I expect that with a full offseason working with these vet receivers that RT will have more options this year. Given how big I believe those two factors were, I expect that the play making when things break down gap between the two will largely disappear.

And RT was simply the more accurate passer of the two, both in break down situations and in system plays. I find that accuracy is something that really doesn't improve over time. The completion % can improve as the QB makes better decisions or the supporting cast improves, but the % of sailed passes doesn't change. Last year my perception was that RT was one of the most accurate passers in the league. I feel he was up there near the Aaron Rodgers level and easily in the top 5 group. He wasn't a top 5 QB b/c he still has to improve his decision making and expand his options in the offense. But those are things that generally do improve if you have the skills and put in the work. I see no reason to believe that RT won't reach his potential in the near future. I think he has an excellent chance to be a top 10 QB this year and one of the top 5 by the end of year 3 or 4.

That's why I don't see Luck as operating in some other stratosphere. IMO, on balance, Luck was better in some aspects and RT was better in others, but overall they were pretty close by the end of the season. I also think that the areas where Luck had the advantage are areas that RT is likely to catch up fairly quickly. The only advantage that Luck is likely to maintain is in strength. He's just a horse that will always break a few more tackles than RT. But I think RT will always be the more accurate passer. They have similar ceilings in terms of speed and quickness. And they're both highly intelligent and likely to put in the work needed to improve the mental side of their game. I expect that their comparative successes will largely depend on how the team around them develops and of course luck ( no pun intended).

 

Man this is good stuff, and one of the best posts I've read this summer, very exciting coming from you about Tannehill, especially considering how high I was on Luck, Wilson and Kap coming out.

I do understand that it isn't the only trait needed to be an elite Qb, but it was a trait that I was not going to do without when we started looking for our franchise Qb..I'll disagree with you on the one point, I do think the discrepancy in the trait was fairly substantial, but at the same time I believe Ryan has the best pocket potential and accuracy, and that's pretty freakin awesome for me personally to see develop..

If he can improve that trait we just might have somethin special like you say.

 

So your saying stats are quantifiable....

Football is a game of inches, a third and one completion could be the play that wins the game, the Qb could of went thru extraordinary measures to pick up that 1 yard..

There's no way of quantifying the magnitude of the play thru a stat that is one of many in the qbr rating..

Qbr can tell me what level, and how consistent that Qb played at that level...

 

A 40% completion percentage while rushed can tell me the QB may not be as good as you think he is under pressure. Being able to determine that Luck's completion percentage of 40% is not difficult or involving crazy math and formulas.

Since no one else arguing with me can answer these 2 point blank questions, I hope you will...

1. Do you think PFF accurately came up with Luck's 40% completion percentage while rushed?
2. If the 40% number is accurate, does that alter what you believed about Luck's ability while under pressure?

 

Oh no, "franchise left tackle!" It's the way we've always done it!