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Pick'em Week 12

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by plc001, Nov 23, 2021.

  1. plc001

    plc001 Well-Known Member

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    Bears @ Lions
    Raiders @ Cowboys
    Bills @ Saints
    Steelers @ Bengals
    Jets @ Texans
    Eagles @ Giants
    Panthers @ Dolphins
    Titans @ Patriots
    Buccaneers @ Colts
    Falcons @ Jaguars
    Chargers @ Broncos
    Rams @ Packers
    Vikings @ 49ers
    Browns @ Ravens
    Seahawks @ Washington

    First 3 games this week are Thursday games.
     
  2. plc001

    plc001 Well-Known Member

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    Lions
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    Patriots
    Buccaneers
    Falcons
    Chargers
    Packers
    Vikings
    Ravens
    Seahawks
     
  3. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Lions
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    Bills
    Bengals
    Texans
    Eagles
    Dolphins
    Patriots
    Buccaneers
    Falcons
    Chargers
    Packers
    Vikings
    Ravens
    Washington
     
  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lions
    Cowboys
    Bills
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    Texans
    Eagles
    Dolphins
    Titans
    Buccaneers
    Jaguars
    Broncos
    Packers
    Vikings
    Ravens
    Washington

    I figured I'd be the only one expecting Campbell and the Lions to earn their 1st win this week! Yet three in a row says he does.
     
  5. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Bears
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    Texans
    Eagles
    Panthers
    Patriots
    Colts
    Falcons
    Chargers
    Packers
    49ers
    Ravens
    Seahawks
     
  6. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Costa Rica
    Bears
    Cowboys
    Saints
    Bengals
    Jets
    Eagles
    Panthers
    Patriots
    Colts
    Falcons
    Chargers
    Packers
    49ers
    Ravens
    Washington
     
  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Lions
    Cowboys
    Bills
    Steelers
    Texans
    Eagles
    Panthers
    Titans
    Buccaneers
    Falcons
    Chargers
    Packers
    49ers
    Ravens
    Seahawks
     
  8. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Lions
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    Texans
    Eagles
    Panthers
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    Colts
    Jaguars
    Chargers
    Rams
    Vikings
    Ravens
    Washington

    With Nagy rumored to be fired, I think the Bears, uh, barely show up for the game against the Lions. I feel like the Titans are going to stumble while depending on Tanny to carry the team, and the Rams take advantage of a slightly hobbled Rodgers.

    Since this is the NFL though, I'll be badly wrong on 2 of these 3 games. :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2021
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  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Bears
    Cowboys
    Bills
    Steelers
    Texans
    Eagles
    Dolphins
    Patriots
    Buccaneers
    Jaguars
    Chargers
    Packers
    Vikings
    Ravens
    Washington

    I’ll update the rest by Saturday. Just wanted to make sure tomorrow’s games were picked.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021 at 6:48 PM
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  10. Ophinerated

    Ophinerated Preposterous!

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    Bears
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    Texans
    Eagles
    Dolphins
    Patriots
    Buccaneers
    Falcons
    Chargers
    Rams
    49ers
    Ravens
    Seahawks
     
  11. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    Lions
    Cowboys
    Saints
    Bengals
    Texans
    Eagles
    Dolphins
    Titans
    Colts
    Jaguars
    Broncos
    Rams
    Vikings
    Ravens
    Washington
     
  12. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    Lions
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    Bills
    Bengals
    Texans
    Eagles
    Panthers
    Patriots
    Buccaneers
    Falcons
    Chargers
    Rams
    Vikings
    Ravens
    Seahawks
     
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021 at 5:09 PM
  13. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    The Lions were soooooo close! I had Bears initially but with the coaching issues, the short week, some injuries, and just the hype of the Thanksgiving game I thought Dan Campbell might be able to get a win on this one.

    They had it right there and then they had three consecutive penalties and things started to unravel.

    Ah well.
     
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  14. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I just have this feeling the Lions will go winless and become the first team with two winless seasons. (They do have a tie at least this season.)
     
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  15. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    It's too bad for them there isn't a a Trevor Lawrence waiting in next years draft. I want good things for them.
     
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  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Me too...I'm a big Dan Campbell fan and wish them nothing but good things.
     
  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Oh I don't care about Campbell. He's a goner. Just the Lions franchise.
     
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  18. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    I think this has been the toughest week so far for picks. My confidence level is low on almost all of them...
     
  19. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    I've had a couple really bad weeks in a row, and 0-3 to start this week so...

    If you're looking for sympathy, It's in the dictionary between **** and syphilis.


    Edit: Really? **** is a censored word? The bit doesn't work with poo-poo. I get wanting to keep things civilized but it's just words. If you are offended by nouns get better meds.
     
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  20. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    I'm 1-2, so I'm pulling away from you, lol.
     
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  21. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well after this week’s games (thus far), I’ve come to the following conclusions.

    The Lions are STILL the Lions. I don’t really expect them to win a single game this season.

    The Cowboys…they look great, they look dominating they can’t score touchdowns. The NFC East is going to be way up for grabs again this season

    I’m still not sold on the Bills this season but they were able to beat the Saints. Without Kamara and no real solid option at quarterback, don’t count on the Saints winning too many more games.

    The age of Big Ben in Steel
    Town is over. He should have retired but with no option at quarterback, the Steelers are a team I won’t be picking anymore this season

    The battle for the bottom of the barrel proved that even with a veteran in Taylor, the Texans are bound to lose the rest of the season. I mean c’mon, can’t even beat the Jets??

    The Eagles prove to me if they are anything, they are inconsistent. I pick against them, they win. They convince me they have something, and they lose the the hapless Giants? As I said, the NFC East is going to be up for grabs.

    I’m truly beginning to think the Dolphins are the football version of the Cleveland Indians in Major League. It’s starting to come together. Tagovailoa finished 2 games in a row with a completion percentage above 80, something no Dolphins quarterback has ever done. And the defense is playing like they’re possessed.

    The Titans are not the SAME without Henry. Even though they rushed for an incredible 270 yards against the Patriots, turnovers in the running game killed Tennessee. On the other side of the coin, anyone who counted Belichick out since the loss of Brady was quite foolish. The Pats are back to being the AFC gold standard.

    Speaking of Brady, the Bucs just barely survived a shootout with the Colts. That’s no knock on Tampa but more of a praise for the Colts. Don’t overlook them. Taylor compliments Wentz like Henry does Tannehill. They’re going to be a team to contend with.

    Urban Meyer is finding out quick that winning in the NFL is not guaranteed, even against a team as terrible as the Falcons. Lawrence is progressing but it appears that for every 2 steps he takes forward, he takes one step back. Won’t be picking them to win another game either.

    That’s what I’ve learned this week. But with this being the NFL, who knows what’ll happen next week.
     
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  22. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    I am having a comically terrible week so far. 2-7 in the games through 4pm.
     
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  23. plc001

    plc001 Well-Known Member

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    Weeks 1-12.png

    thought this was interesting view of the data where you can see how many games were guessed right each week. We came out strong weeks 1-6... then started to tail off.

    Week 12 is still in progress by the way, but you can see preliminary totals.
     
  24. plc001

    plc001 Well-Known Member

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    Week12.png

    Please let me know if this is an acceptable way of presenting the data. I just learned how to upload pics :) Percentage is total percentage guessed correctly for year.
     
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  25. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Works for me!
     
  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, that's quicker and easier for you...it definitely works!
     
  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Just want to point out that if someone predicts around 67% correct with a very large sample size (ideally every game in the season) you're matching the best algorithms out there. Go well above 67% and you might want to think about betting for real.
     
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  28. plc001

    plc001 Well-Known Member

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    Puka was hitting that for a while and since has sucked like the rest of us :)
     
  29. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Yeah I was cooking right along. Then Jax beat the fluffy hos and the laws of nature were altered making reason and logic irrelevant
     
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  30. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Club Member

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    Well, I was at 64% on the year until this week, and it sunk me.

    But either way, picking games straight up has always been far, far easier for me than with the line. In times I've done the betting line, I'm usually under 40%. Sometimes around 25%. Its just a completely different animal.
     
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  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, for betting against the spread the best algorithms are at around 56% correct.

    There's actually a contest among machine learning algorithms (and humans of course), with some of them using the Vegas line to help make predictions, that takes place each year at PredictionTracker:
    https://www.thepredictiontracker.com/nflawards20.html

    For predicting straight up the past 10 winners are:
    Winner 2020: Kasulis Enhanced Spread 68.284%
    Winner 2019: Steven Jens 66.541%
    Winner 2018: Pi-Rate Ratings 68.302%
    Winner 2017: Dratings.com 68.5%
    Winner 2016: Kenneth Massey 67.2%
    Winner 2015: Sagarin Golden Mean 65.918%
    Winner 2014: Dokter Entropy 71.429%
    Winner 2013: Ed Bemiss 70.301%
    Winner 2012: Sagarin Pure Points 67.293%
    Winner 2011: Nationalsportsranking.com 69.721%

    For predicting against the spread the past 8 winners are:
    Winner 2020: Dokter Entropy 55.725%
    Winner 2019: Computer Adjusted Line 58.192%
    Winner 2018: Pi-Rate Mean 57.143%
    Winner 2017: Updated Line 60%
    Winner 2016: Updated Line 55.621%
    Winner 2015: Logistic Regression 59.608%
    Winner 2014: Computer adjusted line 58.696%
    Winner 2013: Lou St. John 59.449%

    etc.

    Competition also includes "mean absolute error", so how close to the actual score you can predict, and on average the best algorithms are around 10 points difference from the actual score. There's also a competition for smallest bias in error. The best have nearly no bias.

    For 2021 the current leader in predicting straight up is an algorithm called RP Excel that's so far 66.26% correct, and it's also currently 2nd in predicting against the spread at 57.96% correct.

    So that's your (global) competition!
     
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