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playoff optimism?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by anlgp, Dec 3, 2010.

  1. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Hey,

    wanted to gauge your guys thoughts on a playoff possibility. I'm not too optimistic and even if we do make the playoffs I just don't think there's a deep push out of the team this year. We have to win the Browns game first and Hillis scares me.

    We also need to split the games with the Jets and the Pats... and I'd like us to sweep buf. So that's 4.. the lions game I'd be ok losing because they're in the NFC.

    I just don't see all that happening
     
  2. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    The MATH says yes its possible...thats all that matters.
     
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  3. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Oh I agree it's possible. What matters more to me is that we take the opportunity that it's possible and not have inconstant games going down the stretch and win a few in a row.
     
  4. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, I do have some optimism, but in fact our playoff chances will clear up by about 11:30 pm Monday evening.

    Ravens Steelers winner on Sunday
    Jets Pats winner on MNF

    That is when dolphins fans will have a much better feel for the last 4 games.

    Assuming of course we beat the Browns, and on an odd note, we all should be huge packers fans for the rest of the season.

    Go Pack!
     
  5. finserg

    finserg Well-Known Member

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    No way we make it
     
  6. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Why GB? The pats game is the only game I see that effects our chances all their other games are against NFC opponents. And I don't really think that effects our chance that much as I don't think we can catch up to their record.
     
  7. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    When in fact WAYS exist for us to make....so!!!!!!
     
  8. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Because they also beat the Jets, if they win the division we have a chit on the Jets for common opponents as well as pumping up strength of schedule.

    Jets:

    Pats
    Phins
    Steelers
    Bears
    Bills

    We win out they have 4 tough games to slog through..if we tie the Jets that win over the pack gives us the edge, if a AFCW team manages a 11-5 we also win that tie breaker as head to head is tossed out of the window as there are now 3 teams vying..:D
     
  9. Rocky Raccoon

    Rocky Raccoon Greasepaint Ghost Staff Member

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    Why do we need to root for the Packers the rest of the way? EDIT: Just read your previous post, gotcha.

    In all honestly, if we take care of business against some pretty talented teams and the Pats beat the Jets Monday night then we should root for the Pats to keep winning. Because if it comes down to us needing to win that last game to make the playoffs, then a 13-2 Pats team won't be playing their best guys all game as they will have home field locked up.
     
  10. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    This team isn't going to the playoffs.
     
  11. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    SoS question.....

    do we want our opponents we beat to WIN more and more games....and JETS oponnents to win more and more games???

    I know come draft, they reverse the concept of SoS saying same records they give the advantage to draft earlier to teams that played LOSERS but ended up with same record - stating if you played worse teams but could only Win X-many games you need more help than the team that played BETTER record teams and still ended up with X-many wins.

    so, playoff SoS...we want WINS from opponents???? Not Losses right?
     
  12. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well what we need is for the Pats and Jets to lose to the teams we have beaten, for example the Packers, of course any loss will do, but still if we end up tied those common opponents wins and losses come before SoS, if we fall down to SoS, then we want the teams we have played to have great seasons, the teams we have not played to have poor seasons if they played our rivals.
     
  13. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Ok, so the opposite of draft rational. That what I thought, but was confused based on draft pick logic. thanks.
     
  14. HULKFish

    HULKFish Artist and Scribe

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    The Dolphins make the playoffs... Once you're in, it's a new season!

    Dolphins win-out and Jets crash.
     
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  15. PhinGeneral

    PhinGeneral PC Texas A&M, Bro Club Member

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    Although I think the chance at a playoff spot is quite slim, this is probably the best chance at getting there. If the Jets play at times this season against inferior opponents are a true indicator of the team, then those five games can be a real death trap for them, especially having to go to places like Pittsburgh and Chicago. But if it turns out they're just playing down to their competition, then I don't think we stand a chance at a playoff spot unless a Pittsburgh or Baltimore collapses.
     
  16. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Exactly, this is more or less a 5 game season, with the dolphins playing their competition and needing some, not a ton, of help.

    We do not need the Jets to completely collapse, we do need them to lose 2 out of 3 games, with one of those games coming against us..if they:

    Lose to:

    Patriots and Dolphins then we have a great chance of catching them, the Ravens and Steelers have 8 wins, we are 2 games behind them, but they play each other, the loser we move 1 game behind assuming we win this Sunday.

    We ain't dead yet Nola is going to Baltimore in a must win situation themselves..and Ben R's foot is probably re broken.
     
  17. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    All scenarios and expectations start and end with one premise. Can our Miami Dolphins get consistent and produce a product on the field that WINS its remaining 5 games. Without that (especially vs NYJ, NE, BUF) game, set, match. It starts vs CLE...but whatever expectation one can fathom about the TALENT we have to get on a remaining 5 game run of victories, all else is moot.
     
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  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Exactly, here is the resident BSPN blogger's take on our chances:

    Notice he grants that we can win out, but "based on..(ESPN's) power rankings" we have no shot, as well as winning percentage..with 5 games to go, allow me to make this "bold" prediction, if we win our remaining 5 games the 2010 Miami Dolphins will make the playoffs.

    "If" we win out, that means we have beaten the Jets and Pats, if the Jets lose to the pats on MNF then they only need one more loss facing two teams on the road that are either in first place or one game out of first place, to then say "gosh the power rankings say" is simply..stupid to rely upon to make such a statement.
     
  19. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    I can get on board with that. :up:




    :knucks:
     
  20. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I can't say my playoff optimism is high. IMO our chances are almost non-existent. But I say "almost" b/c history has taught me to never underestimate the Jet's ability to implode.
     
  21. 54Fins

    54Fins "In Gase we trust"

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    over there

    I'm always opportunistic about our chances(although I don't show it much here) but there is a slim ray of hope if the cards fall our way this year in reality.
    Don't worry about Hillis,we will key on him.
    If Delholme plays,look for at least a pick 6.We win!
    We can split with the Jets,Pats easily if we have ball control Offense. I want to win those 2 tbh.
    Bills games I'm more nervous about.They have some deep threats and that vertical game I don't like.
    We do need other teams to help us out down the road,and it's very possible that might happen. I like our chances,Bro.
     
  22. Pagan

    Pagan Metal & a Mustang

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    Unless this team shows it can beat the better teams, even if they do make the playoffs it'll be one and done.
     
  23. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    That about sums it up.
     
  24. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Well, who here would rather be on the sideline so as to not worry that we would be one and done.....vs. watching JETS or NE make it and rooting that they go one and done???


    sorry, not worried about our chances once we get in....happy we took the spot of some other team and we have a 17th week of football to root for regardless. Stranger things have happened.
     
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  25. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Well if the Dolphins don't make the playoffs, then exactly one month from today it's over and the off-season begins. You'll have to wait until September 11th to watch some real Dolphins games again, as the Dolphins play the Patriots January 2nd. However, they could push the season a week ahead or a week later instead of having games on 9/11/11.
     
  26. Dolfan984

    Dolfan984 Underrated Free Agent

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    I haven't given up. If we win out, I don't see how it works out that we're not in. A lot of things would have to go against us. We really just need some teams to tie us in record we hold a lot of non head to head tiebreakers so if it goes to a 3 way tie I think we're good to go.
     
  27. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    No friggin way we go to the playoffs.
     
  28. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Again, actually several WAYS for us to go!
     
  29. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    How about if NE loses to NY..... loses to Chicago...... loses to GB...... beats the Bills........ and enter our week 17 game at 10-5.
    ..................NY beats NE......... loses to us............. loses to Pit....... loses to Chicago..... and beats Buffalo......... finishing 11-5.
    ............Miami beats Cleve........ beats NY............... beats Buff........ beats Detriot.......... and enter the NE game at 10-5.

    How big would the NE game be?!!! We'd be either playing for the division title or for nothing would we not? (I seriously doubt Pitt or Balt loses 3 of 5)
     
  30. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    If we finish 11-5, we are going to the playoffs.
     
  31. Hellion

    Hellion Crash Club Member

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    The thread starter isn't asking for statistical odds of Miami making the playoffs, we know statistically they are still in the hunt. But he's asking how optimistic you are about it happening. Looking at the schedule, 10-6 at best and no playoffs.
     
  32. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    again, does logic and facts play a role. 11-5 AT BEST is fact.

    You want to toss math and reality of fact out the window....like I said, not the type of people I would normally associate with. Have at it if reason of factual possibilities go out the window. 11 wins, 5 losses is our BEST results possible. Until that changes, thats all that matters in my book.
     
  33. Hellion

    Hellion Crash Club Member

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    How open minded of you.:lol:

    No need to yell down from ur high horse BDH, lighten up It all just good natured discussion.:wink2:

    Yes it's easy to be a robot and look at statistics and calculated odds. Dosen't make it reality just makes it a possibilty. Have an opinion, human factors play into it and unless humans have become perfect machines lately then the reality is we have to win 5 straight games, two against two of the better teams in the game right now. Is it possible, sure it is, will they (in your opinion)considering talent,coaching, injuries blah blah blah...do it? Its a simple question.

    Statistacally lightning could strike you right now, all he's asking is for you to look outside and give your opinion if you think it will happen. Is the sunshining and not a cloud in the sky? Or is it dark over cast and thundering? Or somewhere in between? Whats the 5 day forecast like?

    Gut feelings are illogical
    [​IMG]
     
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  34. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    I am very lightened up....I dont have time for those that choose the fetal-position FASTER then necessary.....but one more Loss and I will be holding my knees and rocking back and forth right along side of you. LOL.....just saying until MATH changes my mindset...we have a real shot at playoffs. A real shot! That is reality!
     
  35. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Exactly, this rush to throw dirt on a season is mind boggling to me...why?

    What is there to be gained by sticking a fork into a entire yr before it is in the oven.
     
  36. Zod

    Zod Ruler of the Universe

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    The Jets were 5-6 at this point last year and they made it. Some team will collapse in December. It happens every year. I just hope it's not the Dolphins.
     
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  37. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    While I have stated that I see the playoffs as a long shot, an optimistic view would be that the Dolphins will be favored in 3 of the last 5 games. Of the remaining two one is against a team we outplayed in two of the three phases earlier this season and only lost due to a ST's meltdown of historic proportions that is unlikely to repeat any time soon. The other is against a team that we played close (and always do). That game came down to a few bounces that could have gone either way. Basically, I see three games that we should win and two that could go either way. If 11-5 gets us in, I can't say that it is entirely impossible that we win 3 games we're supposed to and 2 games that are toss ups. I look at it like a coin flip on those two games. The odds may favor a coin coming up heads 50% and tails 50%, but I've seen many occasions where heads has come up twice in a row. Of course some will say that those two games are not toss ups, but I disagree. IMO the Jets and Pats have not played all that well this season. Just looking at the offensive and defensive rankings on NFL.com, they haven't played significantly better than Miami. On offense the Jets are ranked 11th, the Pats are ranked 13th and the Dolphins are ranked 16th. On defense the Jets are ranked 3rd, Miami 6th and NE 31st. They've both gotten many wins on luck instead of merit. On the other hand Miami got robbed of a win against Pitt. That luck may continue as it has or it may balance out. Either way I don't see any of the possible outcomes as impossible to imagine.
     
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  38. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Yup, there really shouldnt be any doubt that we CAN WIN vs NYJ and NE. We can! Its all about CLE right now. All about CLE.
     
  39. CirclingWagons

    CirclingWagons Banned

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    Not happening.
     
  40. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    Hey we are not discussing STEVE JOHNSON right now. Silly!!:tongue2:
     

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