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Playoffs still possible

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Big Red, Dec 21, 2009.

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  1. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    Believe it or not if we win our last two games we still have a shot at the playoffs. A pretty good shot actually.

    Division Winners:
    Colts 14-0
    Chargers 11-3
    Bengals 9-5
    Pats 9-5

    Wild Card teams:
    Broncos 8-6
    Ravens 8-6

    In the hunt:
    Dolphins 7-7
    Texans 7-7
    Steelers 7-7
    Jags 7-7
    Jets 7-7
    Titans 7-7

    Check it out. The Broncos have to play the Eagles at Philly and the Ravens have to play the Steelers at Pittsburgh. If we beat the Texans we could be in a three-way tie for the Wild Card.

    Plus the Titans have to play the Chargers so the team that just beat us could very well drop to 7-8 while we go to 8-7. As for the rest of the 7-7 teams we already beat the Jets and the Jags and we can give the Texans and the Steelers their 8th loss.

    Crazy, huh?
     
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  2. dolfan7171

    dolfan7171 Well-Known Member

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  3. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    It's also possible I could still get discovered and become the next big action movie star.
    But I ain't holding my breath.
    I am glad our team isn't giving up, and I am rooting for them to win, but I think their chances are exceedingly slim at this point.
     
  4. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well Big Red, we will know whether we even have a shot in 4 days, Christmas Night, the Titans play the Chargers, if the titans win, we are s-u-n-k.

    All I want for Christmas is...:lol:
     
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  5. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    The way the Chargers are playing right now I believe they will win. Even if they don't the Seahawks are not a gimme. They are difficult to beat when they're at home. Overall the Seahawks are 5-9 but they're 4-3 at home. :up:
     
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  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, we will know soon enough...:up:

    So we need:

    Chargers
    Steelers
    Pats v Jags...tossup, that could go either way, maybe better if the Jags lose though.
    Colts

    The way I understand it, "if" the Ravens, Titans, Jags lose, and we win, we move into the #6 slot?

    So we either chat on Sunday night with at least a WC in our grasp, or we start looking at more mock drafts..:D
     
  7. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    But that's just it. Our chances are no slimmer than anybody else's. You don't think the Broncos and the Ravens are sweating the Eagles and the Steelers right now? You don't think the Texans are sweating us? The Jags, Titans, and Jets also have unfavorable match-ups against the Pats, Chargers, and Colts.

    The Broncos losing to the Raiders changed everything. If we had beat the Titans we would be the #5 seed right now. That's how close the playoff race is. Losing to the Titans means we no longer have a realistic shot at the division. However the Wild Card is still wide open.

    Keep in mind that upsets happen all the time. Otherwise I'd win my football pool every week. Do the Saints suck now because they lost to the Cowboys? Is Oakland great because they beat the Broncos? A couple weeks ago the Seahawks beat the 49ers in Seattle and the next week the 49ers beat the Cardinals in San Francisco. Nobody knows what is gonna happen.
     
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  8. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    I don't know. Its almost pointless to try and figure all out all the tie-breakers. Both Wild Card teams are 8-6 right now and six other teams are 7-7. Mathematically its possible that six or seven teams end up tied at 9-7.

    All I know is that the two teams currently holding the Wild Card spots have very tough games this week. If they lose and the Dolphins win then we got a shot. :up:

    Also Conference Record plays a big part in the tie-breaking procedures. Here's where we currently stand.

    Ravens 6-4
    Jags 6-4
    Broncos 6-5
    Dolphins 5-5
    Jets 5-5
    Steelers 4-6
    Texans 4-6
    Titans 4-7

    If everything goes our way this week then Conference Records will look like this.

    Dolphins 6-5
    Ravens 6-5
    Jags 6-5
    Broncos 6-5
    Steelers 5-6
    Jets 5-6
    Texans 4-7
    Titans 4-8
     
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  9. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    You know what is killing me Big Red?

    Think about this, we head into Buffalo, if we win, we are the AFCE leaders, er..no...we lose...we head into Nashville, if we win, we are the 5th seed in the wildcard race..err...no.

    I'ts like we have been handed these opportunities with a big bow ontop and we have butterfingers, it's killing me...:lol:

    Never liked the Chargers, not after losing to them in 94, and I like this Jags team, they are scrappy, so I'm sort of past cheeing for a different team, I'll just wait to see how things play out.
     
  10. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    Yeah, it sucks. Clearly we are not a dominant team yet. I know everybody has an opinion what it takes and how long it takes to become dominant. I believe we are close. Very close. Maybe even just one offseason away. In a couple years we will enter the draft without any needs at all. We'll simply pick the BPA and he'll have to knock off a veteran to win a spot. Imagine that!
     
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  11. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Titans winning wouldn't sink us, unless we finish in a two way tie with them. The only true thing that would sink us this week is losing to the texans. If we win we're playing for a playoff spot week 17 no matter what.
     
  12. krypto

    krypto Banned

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    Has no one ever learned that with the Dolphins, even with what we got, you cannot automatically assume a win? Regardless of opponent?
     
  13. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    Very true. If certain teams lose it could increase our odds of making the playoffs but as long as we win this Sunday we will be in the mix. I like that. :knucks:

    You can never assume a win but when you look at the playoff picture you have make a few assumptions in order to get a clear picture of the situation. :up:
     
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  14. hooserdaddy

    hooserdaddy Season Ticket Holder

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    If you haven't already used this tool it's helpful in determining what could happen if things fall in place.

    I think this could realistically happen.

    Week 16
    We beat Texans
    Patriots beat Jags
    Steelers beat Ravens
    Eagles beat Broncos

    If the above happens in week 16 then a win against Pittsburgh gets us in.

    There are other scenarios, and depending on Denver winning out or losing there last 2 games also could change our chances but above is a very realistic scenario for next week. Feel free to check out the yahoo playoff generator, and change the results of the games to see all of the different scenarios.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=custom&15=50000041&16=55141515
     
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  15. Ohio Fanatic

    Ohio Fanatic Twuaddle or bust Club Member

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    some big rosy glasses you got there. We are not that close to being dominant at all IMO. And NO team is ever in position to not have needs going into a draft, no one.

    Furthermore, why would the Texans be sweating us? When have we showed any ability to slow down big play offenses?

    No way we make the playoffs.
     
  16. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, after the 0-3 start, the odds were long on making the playoffs to begin with, something like 3 teams in 20 yrs have started 0-3 and made the playoffs, so overall we are not in a terrible spot talent wise.

    A part of me really wants to see Andrew Gardner play RT with Big Vern moving inside to guard.
     
  17. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    No, the Broncos' and Ravens' chances are much better than ours.
     
  18. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    At the moment, they have to win 1 game, we have to win 2, but if the Ravens lose in Pittsburgh or chances grow exponentially.

    Part of the fun of the NFL.

    3 days, Titans v Chargers kicks things off.
     
  19. FaninPatsyLand

    FaninPatsyLand The Truth

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    That Titans game is essentially meaningless, unless of course you believe that both the Ravens and Broncos will drop both of their remaining games. Considering that those teams play KC and Oakland respectively in Week 17, I find it hard to believe that scenario will play out.

    Here's what we need to happen if we want a realistic shot at a playoff spot at the end of Week 17. There are other games that could impact Miami's playoff chances (like a Titans loss) but the outcomes of those games don't have a gigantic impact on our playoff quest like the following 3 games do:

    Baltimore @ Pittsburgh - We need PIT in the worst way. A Baltimore win is a devestating blow to Miami's playoff chances. A Baltimore win here would assure the Ravens of holding the common games tiebreaker over Miami, regardless of what plays out on Week 17.

    Jacksonville @ New England - We need a NE to win this game and lock up the AFC East. Similar to how that Titans loss will not really affect us in a tiebreaker situation because its unlikely only two teams will end up tied for the final WC spot, the head-to-head tiebreaker we hold over Jacksonville for that win a couple of weeks ago means very little to us. They hold a conference record tiebreaker over Miami, so we have to finish at least a game ahead of them to assure they don't spoil our playoff hopes. They have the Browns on Week 17.

    Denver @ Philadelphia - An Eagles win would put us in a tie with Denver for the 6th and final WC spot. Assuming we defeat Pittsburgh and the Broncos defeat KC on Week 17, our conference and common opponent records would be equal, which means the tiebreaker would be based on each team's strength of victory.

    There you have it. If Pittsburgh and New England win next weekend, Miami will control their own destiny heading into Week 17 against Pittsburgh. They would be in a "win-and-you're-in" scenario.

    If Denver loses on Sunday, Miami (assuming they win out) would be in a tiebreak situation with Denver, which would be decided by the strength of victory tiebreaker, which at this point is close, but cannot be ultimately decided until the remainder of the season has played out. It would be close enough to make Dolphin nation collectively sweat. As crazy as it sounds, we might need to pull for the Jets this weekend, not only to preserve the record of the '72 team, but to improve our odds should the strength of victory tiebreak come into play.

    Enjoy Week 16, its going to be crazy!
     
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  20. DrAstroZoom

    DrAstroZoom Canary in a Coal Mine Luxury Box

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    We don't need the Broncos to lose if the other dominoes fall right (Jags losing to NE and Baltimore losing to Pittsburgh).
     
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  21. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    there is still the outside chance that NE loses to both JAX and HOU .... so the JAX/NE is of most importance to either the DIV or WC.

    IF PIT plays like it did on SUN, they have a good chance of beating BAL

    PHI should beat DEN, period ... PHI needs that game, so does DEN of course - but i see PHI coming out on top.

    but i don't want to have to rely on strength of schedule / victory against DEN ... its too fickle -

    preferably, we get JAX and BAL to lose ... and the rest will take care of itself if we win.
     
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  22. finserg

    finserg Well-Known Member

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    Put a fork in us were done !
     
  23. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    I don't trust that generator. It has been wrong in the past.
     
  24. finserg

    finserg Well-Known Member

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    Yep pretty sure were done , it was a must to win all games
     
  25. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Where the **** did this non-stop pessimism come from? The generator is not wrong. Calculate it yourself.

    We tie in common games with Baltimore and we win in strength of victory that's all there is to it.
     
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  26. Anonymous

    Anonymous Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    So, what we need is a loss for NY, Jac, Houston, Tenn, Denver, and Baltimore correct? Assuming they all play teams that are better than them, Miami still has a pretty good shot if they take care of business.
     
  27. PHINANALYST

    PHINANALYST Well-Known Member

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    Nah, the JESTS just don't matter .....

    and as long as it isn't head to head - TEN doesn't matter either ... their AFC record is paltry ... HOU is in the same boat ....

    it's really just DEN, BAL, JAX & MIA .... at 7 wins ....
     
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  28. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    Who is the most dominant team in the NFL right now? The Colts? They're undefeated. We almost beat them.

    The Saints? We almost beat them too.

    The Chargers? They almost lost to the Bengals at home.

    The Eagles? They lost to the Chargers and the Saints.

    The Pats? We beat them.

    The Vikings? They don't look unbeatable anymore.

    Seriously. Dominance is not as far away as you think. We need a little more consistency and a handful of players.

    Also I would disagree that every team enters the draft with glaring needs. The Colts, Saints, Chargers, Eagles, Vikings, and Steelers have very few if any needs. It would be extremely difficult for a rookie to win a starting job on any of those teams.
     
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  29. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    You seem to enjoy saying we're done.
     
  30. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    If they fixed the problem then I stand corrected. However last year I did calculate it myself and the Yahoo! Playoff Scenario Generator was incorrect.
     

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