Playoffs

Well, if Peter King lurks on our boards, we know that he doesn't use your screen name. King has more faith in Mac Jones than Tua and that's why he expects us to miss the playoffs.

 

I agree that playoffs should be a realistic objective by year 3. I mean 14 out of 32 teams make it now, which is 43.75% so just under half of all teams. Basically, it's saying you're a better than average team, which one should be by year 3 of a rebuild.

We should be right on the cusp. Vegas currently has us at +110 moneyline to make the playoffs, which is 47.62% probability. How I'll view Flores if we don't make the playoffs depends on W/L record. If we don't make it with 10-11 wins I can still stomach it.

 

It still depends a lot on the process. If we go 10-7 and miss the playoffs due to tiebreakers I could live with that if Tua balls out and we show improvement on the D and OL. In that scenario if we have bad luck with injuries and close games we could end up 1 or 2 Ws down on what we “should have” won.
However if we go 10-7 and make the playoffs despite Tua regressing and our D being inconsistent then I’m not so happy. This would require us flipping a few “should have lost games” into Ws through special teams play, defensive TDs and so on.

If we don’t make the playoffs that requires some deep soul searching as to whether we are on the right path or not. As you say this is year 3 of the rebuild and we exceeded expectations in years 1 and 2 so if the path we are on is a correct path logically this is the year we start making a playoff dynasty. It’s just that we can be on the right path and a few random events push us out of the playoffs. As I said I can be cool with missing the playoffs if there is reason to believe, not mere wishful thinking, that our core team will be a solid playoff contender in 2022 and beyond.

 

I mostly agree with this, but the season is never this black and white for me. What if we have key injuries to superstars? I don't even want to name anyone, feeling superstitious. I feel like in the past decade, we've had several "10-win" teams that just fell apart with people out. Heck, last year could have been an 11 or 12-win team if we didn't play backup receivers half the year.

 

I very much agree with this.

If the offense develops and shows up, and by the second half of the season we're looking good and feel like we have the pieces to really start making a move, but the team loses a few really tough games along the way and misses the playoffs, then I'll feel really good heading into 2022.

But if the offense sputters and can never get into gear, but we continue to win razor tight games because the defense or special teams made a play at just the right moment, or the offense looked lousy most of the day but had one big run or pass that made the difference, ect. and we make the playoffs, it will really feel like we're back in the purgatory of the Wanny or Sparano years.

I know that others disagree. Some very strongly. But for me, the bottom line of making the playoffs, or even winning a wild card game, isn't the end all. I have to look at it deeper and more subjectively than that and think about how they got there, and why, and what does that mean going forward.

 

I'm pretty torn here because if you re-read what you said above, that's the 2021 season in a nutshell. Started out really slow, dropped a few games we should have been competitive in and then the defense goes bananas in forcing turnovers and points. Fitz is in, then Tua, then Fitz again, then more Tua with all the receivers out....this is not a "feel good story". Yet we won 10 games and basically locked ourselves into the playoffs, until the Bills absolutely destroyed us in week 17.

Looking back, I was thrilled with our season at the time. But today, I don't want that same season all over again to consider "a success". If we go down that identical road, it's not a failure...but it's not growth either. We need to learn from last year; specifically in these points-

1) Stick with Tua, ride or die. He will have a horrible game at some point and our aging veteran needs to stay on the bench. Let Tua make mistakes, grow from them and fight back. Growth comes from experience...so let the kid work and support him regardless.

2) Figure out the offensive line. I understand moving young players around when you have injuries, but these players need positions as a cohesive unit. If this line can't show average NFL protection then we did something very wrong.

3) We need to learn how to win consistently, the Miami way. Last season, we won games with special teams, pick-six's, massive turnovers, deep last second bombs, etc...and those wins are awesome. But it's not sustainable in that we can expect it week in, week out. We need a consistent offense that's moving chains and getting 1st downs....which was not the norm last season.

4) Despite how good our defense was last season in creating turnovers, we also gave up a ton of yards. I think we'll have one of the top secondary's in the league and hopefully our traditional defensive stats improve- 3rd downs, total yards, etc.

5) Injuries, injuries, injuries....they derail every season when key players go down at the worst possible time. I know this is a problem for all teams, but I can't remember anyone who had all of their starting receivers out for the months of November and December. That Bills team that blew us out in week 17, they essentially faced our 2nd string offense with 4th string receivers. We desperately need to figure out how to field a healthy team- for instance, maybe Preston Williams should only play 10 snaps a game. I don't know the answer here, but we need our starters playing in December.

 

The Dolphins have done a really lousy job of keeping their players healthy for 15 years now. Over and over, its the same story. I don't know what the answer is, but the team seems cursed in that respect.

 

You know what- that doesn't offend me and I'm sort of taking the mainstream media's side on that one point. We won 10 games last year, which was great, but consistent playoff teams win 10+ games for the majority of their seasons. Doing it once could be a fluke, so I'm not shocked that we're not getting the love from the talking heads. We need to earn that respect by winning 10+ this season and actually getting to the playoffs.

For all I care, they can rank us #32 overall to start the year...that's perfectly fine. Miami needs to get out there and earn those wins either way.

The talking heads are also picking the Pats, and that makes sense to me. They've dominated for a very long time in this division and had one bad season. It makes sense they're giving them the benefit of the doubt after one year....they deserve that for now.

 

I agreee with most of this, and I think we are committed to a year of Tua here.

Defensively, we are strongly from the Pats system which is very much a bend but don't break type of thing. I wouldn't be shocked to see opponents post decent yardage totals, but if we limit them to long FGs, then it's successful. Just need the offense to step up and score.