1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Possible Controversy Coming?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Oct 6, 2019.

  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    11,605
    7,105
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Phins vs. Skins this coming Sunday.

    This might prove a real test of temptation here. IF, and that's a big IF, the Dolphins FO really do desire to lose/get the #1 pick in the draft - even more than winning any given game - then these games against other horrible teams could prove controversial.

    What if this game against the Skins becomes winnable? Is there any chance, at all, that the Dolphins throw a game?

    And if that happens, do we have an investigation/controversy incoming?

    This is probably, highly unlikely...right? But what if? What if they really value the tank/rebuild more than anything else?

    Do we see them stomach a win and hand a possible #1 pick to Washington... or do they commit 100% and pull players, or call crap calls, in order to lose?

    I will say that I'm 100% on-board with the rebuild, but I draw the line at intentionally throwing games at the players/coaching level.

    If it's a close game and we see weird calls or players get pulled... we might be in for some controversy.


    Here's where the predictions currently stand:

    upload_2019-10-7_2-28-51.png

    upload_2019-10-7_2-28-40.png
     
  2. shadokp

    shadokp Active Member

    339
    119
    43
    Aug 15, 2011
    Massachusetts
    I think it is going to be tough getting the first round pick.
     
    Agua likes this.
  3. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    7,324
    8,267
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    That matchup predictor takes into account a lot of games in the past and isn't really relevant if Colt McCoy starts and plays anywhere like he played today. He played so bad that I don't think the Redskins will put up even 10 points against us if he plays similarly.

    This matchup may be the most precarious of the season if we really want that #1 pick. On the plus side, Washington's defense actually came to life today. Forget the final score of 33-7 against NE, they held Brady to just 12 points in the first half. And it didn't look like a fluke either. But how is Washington going to score?? They ran the ball well today but that alone won't do it.

    As to whether the coaches or players will intentionally lose I doubt it. Their whole strategy is to starve the team of talent so that it's too difficult for them to win. Problem is.. they might meet their match against Washington lol. And if we mess up this tank job and fail to get the #1 pick I will never forgive Ross. So I personally wouldn't mind the team making sure they lose, but I doubt they will.

    Very dangerous game for the tank season. Still waiting for Rosen to light it up so that we can forget about tanking.. but it's highly unlikely.
     
  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,327
    7,344
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Why would you blame Ross is there is a team that is worse than us? LOL. I mean, what more could Ross have done to have made the tank almost as much a guarantee as you can get.
     
    mlb1399 and RGF like this.
  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    96,167
    48,399
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I think Gruden is getting fired this week..
     
    Irishman, texanphinatic and tirty8 like this.
  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

    24,431
    24,709
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    I saw this game in April as the easiest one on our schedule, and I certainly still do now. I'm hoping that we come out and absolutely mop the floor with them. That will put a stop to a lot of the sour national media coverage. Then we're just another awful team.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  7. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    7,324
    8,267
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    He could make it clear to Flores that we HAVE to get the #1 pick and if it's a close game in the 4th you call plays as necessary so that you don't come out on top. Of course we don't know if Ross actually made this clear to Flores since we haven't been in a situation to test that. Just saying.. we can't afford to not get that #1 pick. We fail at that and who knows how long before we get another chance at a QB like Tua?
     
  8. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    13,327
    7,344
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    You really think Tua is all that? I follow Alabama, and Tua has never struck me like that.
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    7,324
    8,267
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    I don't think he'll be great, but I think he can be consistently above average, which is good enough to build around.
     
    resnor likes this.
  10. mooseguts

    mooseguts Well-Known Member

    263
    294
    63
    Jan 12, 2018
    How Colt McCoy looked vs the Pats is irrelevant , that NE defense so far has 11 ints, 0 TD scored on, is allowing offenses to convert only 10% of their 1st downs, and is averaging about 4 sacks a game.

    We on the other hand made Lamar Jackson look like an MVP. Colt McCoy is a serviceable starter and has had decent games vs good teams, not to mention he's a veteran who's been under Jay Gruden the last 6 years so he knows the playbook pretty well. We're going to make him look like a HOF QB should he start, no DB's outside of X and no pass rush spells doom.
     
  11. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    734
    668
    93
    Jan 2, 2016
    I think we are gonna win this game for whatever it is worth. As one poster said, Gruden is probably getting canned this week. They are gonna have a new coach and a new QB. They are trending down. Watching the Dolphins play, the team is getting better, the coaching staff is getting better, and Rosen is getting better. They have had an extended time to practice and prepare. I think that this is a recipe for our first W.
     
    Irishman and Dorfdad like this.
  12. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    9,587
    3,101
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Austin TX
    No way the coaches or players tank. Flores may be OK with Grier's roster plan, but no chance he throws a game and risks 0-16. Honestly, whatever he was promised, it would be damn near impossible to recover from 0-16. I don't consider tanking itself - in terms of a GM constructing an intentionally poor short term roster to increase longer term assets - to be immoral, but directly asking a coach to throw a game would absolutely be.

    As for winning, it's fine. Don't be mad. Stop. Tanking is fine, whatever. I'd rather go 1-15 than 0-16, even if we have to pick second. We will either get the second rated passer or Chase Young. We will be ok.

    Not sure the Skins would be in the mood for a QB anyway. Nor do I think they are an 0-16/1-15 candidate. They will fire Gruden and likely get a short term boost in morale and hard play good for a win or two. It may come this week - I called it a few weeks back, this is the ideal time to ditch him, get an interim and install Haskins.
     
    Puka-head, Irishman and Sceeto like this.
  13. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    10,177
    3,336
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Itll be interesting to see how the dolphins come out of the bye.. some players have checked out since week 1.. lets see if their attitude changed...

    i think if Colt McCoy starts theyre going to cruise to a win... this is the game you want to start Haskins, you play him against a terrible Dolphins team on a full week of practice and see how he fairs..

    but Jay Gruden caught a lot of fire for shoving Haskins in a bad situation last week and then two days later naming Mcacoy the starter
     
    Irishman likes this.
  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

    24,431
    24,709
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    I agree with most of what you said. But I don't see 0-16 as this damning black stain that many do. Its no more worse than 1-15 is to 2-14.
     
  15. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    10,177
    3,336
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Its not tanking when you are historically terrible. I said this since the start of training camp, i havent seen a least talented dolphins team than the one i saw this season.. i then said after the fourth preseason game, i dont think we are ready for the NFL season... we need more preseason games.. Ryan Fitzpatrick showed me nothing this preseason and he won the starting job.. i was dumbfounded.. rudock showed me more than any qb we had and we let him go. Then we start cutting good players and letting them get claimed.. then we added a bunch of new players that days before the baltimore game.. so yea, this team is historically badly built.

    and we had some terrible years In the past 20 years... but we always had Zack, JT and Sam Madison to show us the defense was still good... we had Ronnie Brown producing on par with Adrian Peterson until he tore his ACL.. so we always had talent before

    Look at the depth chart now... reshad jones is still good but getting up there in age... xavien howard is ONE cornerback.. he cant cover the whole field himself.. rowe shouldnt be in the NFL.. our linebackers are average at best.. our d line is pathetic.. we really could fix that d line this offseason with chase young and two free agent splashes... dont get me started with the offense.. maybe we have something in Preston Williams but everything else besides Jesse Davis needs a complete overhaul..
     
  16. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    9,587
    3,101
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Austin TX
    Barnwell on ESPN wrote a piece on us tanking and noted that in the vast majority of cases in all sports, the Coach that "oversees" the tank season(s) get replaced quickly and dont reap the rewards.

    Realistically, Flores will have a huge uphill battle regardless, for his players, for fan support and ultimately for Grier and Ross' support.

    An 0-16 season is a historic black mark. You dont recover from that imo. I know reality says that a 1 or 2 win season is no real improvement, but 0 is just ... no. You gotta get at least 1 or you are just Hue Jackson cashing checks waiting for the pink slip.
     
  17. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    8,342
    6,404
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Melbourne, FL
    For real? Instead of the 1919 White Sox throwing the World Series, it’s the 2019 Miami Dolphins throwing the season.

    Your post sounds like a conspiracy theory with Big Brother mandating everything.
     
  18. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    8,342
    6,404
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Melbourne, FL
    You don’t sacrifice so much roster, gain so many draft picks just to draft “good enough”.
     
  19. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

    24,431
    24,709
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Thsts fine by me. I dont really care what happens to Flores, Grier, Ross or anyone else whos in charge right now. I care that the Dolphins franchise is able to take the steps needed to move on and up in a positive direction within the next three or four years.
     
    mbsinmisc and Drizzy like this.
  20. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

    226
    281
    63
    Nov 16, 2013
    I'm not sure we need to worry about it. I suspect we are going to make Washington feel a lot better about themselves.
     
  21. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    96,167
    48,399
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Boom
     
    Puka-head, Irishman and resnor like this.
  22. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    7,324
    8,267
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    If the plan is to tank for the #1 pick, then you make sure you succeed.

    It's "good enough" statistically to build a SB winner which is all that matters. Also, you can't predict how good (or bad) a QB drafted at the #1 spot is going to be so it's not like you can know in advance which year is the best to tank or which QB one should tank for.

    I'm just happy it looks like the timing is right for us. There are some good QB prospects next year and the good thing about Tua is he gives you no reason to think he won't succeed. Still no guarantee of course.
     
  23. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    3,886
    4,163
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    Honestly?

    I think Miami loses this game just like all our others. We flat out suck.

    If Colt McCoy starts, he's good enough to beat us. We make other teams look good. People keep hyping us up but we're terrible.
     
  24. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    11,605
    7,105
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Inspirational!

     
  25. plc001

    plc001 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    213
    307
    63
    Jun 22, 2008
    The danger of anyone being the number 1 pick as opposed to us, is that even if the team isn't in the mood for a QB, someone will be in the mood to trade up to that pick. We have all these picks now, and it sounds greedy, but I want to keep them all.

    0-16, 1- 15 both sounds like we suck really bad. One results in the #1 overall, the other may not.
     
  26. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    1,059
    941
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    Woah woah woah.

    After all the back and forth and what constitutes a winning QB and how much the team matters or doesnt....but in the end you believe the exact same thing I do here lol
     
    resnor and cbrad like this.
  27. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    7,324
    8,267
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Redskins are going to start McCoy or Keenum. They want to take it slow with Haskins and let him develop:
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...nging-stance-dwayne-haskins-jay-gruden-firing

    Hopefully it's Keenum. McCoy just looked like he couldn't play QB. And no I don't think that was NE's defense. Something else was off.. like he didn't even know where to throw the ball sometimes. I just hope it was lack of familiarity and he plays better if they start him.
     
    AGuyNamedAlex likes this.
  28. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    10,177
    3,336
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Keenum, McCoy, Haskins.. they can play all the snaps at wildcat, and im taking the Redskins to win.

    the only thing i will say is Callahan is not missed by anyone in Lincoln, Nebraska. His pro style offense is very 1970’s.

    Zac Taylor was actually his quarterback in Nebraska lol
     
  29. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

    1,330
    410
    83
    Nov 29, 2007
    Incidentally, there are four NFL teams without so much as a tie -- us, the Jets, the Bengals, and the Skins. That's got to be rare this far into the season. We can't both lose this Sunday (can we??) so either we or the Redskins will drop off the list.
     
  30. keypusher

    keypusher Well-Known Member

    1,330
    410
    83
    Nov 29, 2007
    I don't. I really hope we're going through all this misery for someone genuinely outstanding, not just above average. There are multiple above average quarterbacks to be had in every draft, by definition.
     
  31. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

    268
    302
    63
    Jan 29, 2017
    United Kingdom
    Anyone know what the record for safeties in a single game is?

    Just asking...... :groucho:
     
  32. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member

    11,605
    7,105
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Barry J. at the Herald today:
    https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article235796757.html

    "▪ Good news, Dolphins fans: I am already coming up with a list of excuses the Dolphins can use to rest their best players if the No. 1 overall draft pick is on the line when they play host to the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 22.

    How about needing to rest players for OTAs in May and June? Or an ingrown toenail? Or a mild bout of scurvy? Or mental fatigue from enduring a year of The Tank? Or claiming players got stuck in traffic or delayed by South Florida’s various road closures?

    In all seriousness, when I raised the possibility of taking extra tanking measures — if needed — against the Bengals, a Dolphins football staffer dismissed the idea, saying it would be a bad look and send a bad message to players.

    But I don’t see it that way. If you’re going to the trouble of being a national embarrassment for a season, you better complete the job. You better do whatever it takes — within the rules — to make sure you get the first pick, or at worst, the second — thus ensuring selection of Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa or Oregon’s Justin Herbert, who isn’t considered by many evaluators to be as good a prospect as Tagovailoa.

    And I don’t want to hear the Dolphins have the draft capital to move up if needed. Have you seen this team play? They need all those extra draft picks to fill their numerous needs.

    So if there’s ever a time for owner Stephen Ross to intervene, that would be it. If the Dolphins would be at risk of losing out on the top pick by losing to the Bengals, the onus is on Ross to convey to his front office and coaching staff that winning cannot be the priority that day.

    Let’s be clear: The players obviously cannot and absolutely should not be involved in this. Whoever plays needs to try to win, period. Anything else would be unacceptable, morally and legally.

    And it could raise suspicions — or prompt backlash from players — if completely healthy starters are benched for the entire game. So that can’t happen.

    But here’s what can happen, if Miami is at risk of falling out of the top pick in the draft that day: Give your top veteran players a couple of series in that Bengals game (Xavien Howard, Kenyan Drake, Jesse Davis, DeVante Parker, Reshad Jones, Albert Wilson etc.) and then spend the rest of the game looking at younger players. That’s legitimate in a rebuild.

    And if you’re a good player with a minor injury, it’s justified to rest the player.

    What about Ross intervening this weekend when the Dolphins host the Redskins? It’s premature and potentially not necessary because this team, organically, should be bad enough to lose on its own, without getting that extra push.

    But if the top pick is in doubt come mid-December, the Dolphins management needs to keep reminding themselves that they have gone too far, embarrassed the brand too much, to lose sight of the grand prize.

    And at that point — it’s way too soon now — they must do what it takes to enhance their chances to get that pick, provided it’s within the rules.

    ▪ Respected sports business writer Andrew Brandt, a sports law professor and former Green Bay Packers vice president, wrote an interesting piece defending the Dolphins’ plan for SI.com. Brandt wrote: “Don’t call it tanking: In sports as in business, there are many ways to build an organization, and Miami, like many teams before them, is choosing to sacrifice now for the prospects of greater gain down the road.

    “Rather than ridicule the team, we should acknowledge that prioritizing the development of young talent is integral to long-term success.... Businesses regularly sacrifice short-term success for a more stable long-term future.”"
     
  33. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    1,059
    941
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    Not above league average, no there arent.
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    801
    610
    93
    Oct 1, 2018
    Based on 2018’s numbers you don’t get an appreciable increase in win percentage above 8-8 as a team until you have one of the top six quarterbacks in the league. That essentially means there are but six above-average quarterbacks in the league.
     
  35. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    1,059
    941
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    What are you considering an appreciable increase?
     
  36. Wilkimania

    Wilkimania Active Member

    310
    172
    43
    Sep 11, 2016
    I'm intrigued who we'd call the league average in terms of quarterback, as in a single name.

    As for resting players Sunday, I'm sure there's a few enterprising Fins fans that can make sure the players end up delayed on Sunday ;)
     
  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    7,324
    8,267
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah there's no sudden jump in win% from 7 or worse to top 6 or so. Everything is a gradation (passer rating adjusted to 2018 below):
    [​IMG]
     
  38. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    1,059
    941
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    That doesnt mean what he implied though.

    What he implied is that there are 6 above average QB period unless I'm reading wrong.

    Those ratings year to year dont necessarily correlate to the same individual players. So what I'm saying is that it may be at least a couple different players hitting the benchmarks year to year.

    In that case how do you define who is above average?
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    7,324
    8,267
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    A bunch of guys have a career z-score rating of almost exactly zero (which is defined as league average) but one name we're familiar with that has that over his career is Jay Cutler. Career z-score is 0.0032. So Cutler over his career is almost the definition of average.
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

    7,324
    8,267
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    He said "you don’t get an appreciable increase in win percentage above 8-8 as a team until you have one of the top six quarterbacks in the league". Other than the ambiguity of "appreciable increase", the graph you want to test that claim is precisely the one I posted because that shows you how win% is related any QB's passer rating.

    The important point is that there's no threshold.. it's just a gradation.
     

Share This Page