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Predictions for W/L Record

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by finsfandan, May 21, 2017.

  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Actually I agree with ypu on this but for a slightly different reason. Tannehill's strongest games seem to come when he has some run support. Not running out the clock in the 4th, but when the running game is a credible threat. So for Tannehill to be dangerous he needs Ajayi taking some of the D's attention.
     
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  2. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Thank God. A RB like Ajayi can carry the offense and take a load off the defense. If I ever buy an offensive player's jersey, it'll be Ajayi's next season [emoji41]


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  3. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, that goes for any QB, doesn't it? Unless you stats guys have some mind blowing stuff for me [emoji38]

    You guys don't even know. I'd run the Ground Chuck offense if I was in charge.


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  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    It's coming.

    A few of us have said Thill needs a commitment to the running game and the ability to audible to deal with a **** oline (like virtually every other QB). We've been told we were wrong even though that's exactly what happened last year.

    Now the worm starts to turn and those same people are starting to tell us...get this....the team needs fewer pass attempts and needs to run more to be successful.

    I **** you not, this is actually happening on here.

    Soon...they'll be telling us the offense can't thrive unless the oline plays better.....
     
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  5. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    When did I ever say we shouldn't have a commitment to the running game or improve the OL?

    That's a scarecrow argument and you're trying to derail the thread so I'll just ignore you.


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  6. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes, he knows who his horses are. He'd rather his horse be the QB and his adjustments revolves around the QB (his word) but he's smart
     
  7. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I really don't like using rankings, because often there are big gaps and steps in the record as well as clusters. I think letting the ratios speak for themselves or z-scores are more informative than rankings.

    I was using it as a quick and dirty way to show Gase has had a strong commitment to the run throughout his coachimg co-ordinator career as well as his first year with the phins.

    For comparison Lazor's rankings.
    2014
    Pass attempts: 12
    Rush attempts 22
    2015
    pass attenpts: 17
    Rush attempts: 32
     
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  8. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    I just saw a very interesting and relevant piece of info, Gase wants to run more plays than the other team, pretty common approach these days.

    However, we only had 3 games where we ran more plays than the opponent, it was the 3 games MM started.

    :ohmy:
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Where are you getting your stats from?

    If you click on "boxscore" here: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2016.htm you'll see the breakdown in terms of rush plays and passing attempts for each game.

    As far as I can tell, there are only 4 games where our total rushing + passing attempts were greater than the opponent and Tannehill was the QB for 3 of those 4 games: Pittsburgh (1st game), Buffalo (1st game), Jets (1st game).

    The 4th game where we had more rushing + passing attempts was the playoff game vs. Pittsburgh.

    The stats remain the same even if you add in sacks and field goal attempts.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2017
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  10. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    QB needs to be better on third down.
     
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  11. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Your stats are wrong, Finster. I'm not sure where you got them from, but you can find on pro football reference that the Dolphins played 4 games where they ran more plays than their opponents and RT was the QB in 3 of those.
     
  12. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Beat me to it. lol
     
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  13. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Last season RT had an 88 passer rating on 3rd down. And when he had 3rd and less than 10 yards to go he posted a 93.

    For comparison, Luck had a 78 passer rating on 3rd down. Russell Wilson had an 84.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2017
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  14. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

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    A flawed source, lol, yeah I just checked a couple boxscores and they didn't match up.
     
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  15. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You sure?
     
  16. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    !00% positive. At least that's what pro football reference has and they are usually spot on.
     
  17. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Ryan Tannehill:
    upload_2017-5-28_20-16-44.png
     
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  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I could of sworn we were a bottom third 3rd down offense..
     
  19. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Just for comparisons.
    NFL averages.
    Overall 87.6
    3rd down: 83.1 (-4.5)
     
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  20. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    League wide on 3rd down
    Rushing: 4.6 ypa
    Passing: 83.1 PR
    Yards to go: 7.06
    Yards made: 7.97
    Conversion%: 44.4%

    Miami
    Rushing: 4.1 ypa
    Passing: 94.4
    Yards to go: 7.56
    Yards made: 9.42
    Conversion%: 43.6%
     
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  21. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy Club Member

    That is an amazing graphic. Tannehill excelled on 1st and 2nd down and fell off bad on 3rd and 4th. If his knee holds up, this will be fun to watch.
     
  22. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    Something that really stands out here is his INT break down. 8 of his 12 INT's were when the offense needed 10+ yards for a 1st down. 5 of which were on 3rd and 4th down. However, he also had 4 INT's on 1st down. He did have 34 more attempts on 1st down than on 3rd, but I wonder why he threw a 1/3 of his INT's on 1st down?.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Actually no he had a 104.2 rating with 3rd and less than 10 yards to go. They don't directly report that on PFR so you have to calculate it yourself.

    Since they have the stats for 3rd down overall as well as for 3rd and 10+ yards, you have to subtract the component stats for 3rd and 10+ from 3rd down overall to get 3rd and less than 10 yards.

    Those component stats are cmp = 50, att = 86, yds = 748, TD's = 7 and INT's = 2 which comes out to 104.2. Just intuitively it has a lot higher than 93 given that the rating for 3rd and 10+ is 43.1.
     
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  24. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    I don't really think 4 points (88 vs 92) is a huge drop off. The main difference between RT on 1st and 3rd down was completion percentage and sacks. IMO, his comp% suffered because defenses tee'd off on him on 3rd down and the o-line wasn't good enough to protect him.
     
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  25. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    You're right. His 3rd and 7-9 yards to go was where he posted a 93 passer rating.
     
  26. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    He was referring to the passing game when he said its all 10 yards and under now. That quote has nothing to do with the running game or his feelings on balance whatsoever.
     
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  27. smahtaz

    smahtaz Pimpin Ain't Easy Club Member

    If he can get his completion percentage on 3 and 4th down anywhere near his 1st and 2nd down numbers, there is really nothing standing in front of this team. I can't remember a time when the Dolphins had more skilled position players than they do now.
     
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  28. danmarino

    danmarino Winning isn't everything, but wanting to win is. Club Member

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    I think you'd have to read a little more into what he's saying. Yes, he's specifically mentioning the short passing game, but did you read the last sentence in the quote? Gase said he doesn't want to have his QB stand back there and get killed. Any reasonable person would also assume he's not only wanting to enhance the quick, short passing game to accomplish this, but also run the ball. Essentially they are interchangeable for an accurate QB.

    And when it's all said and done, Pauly proved that Gase runs the ball.
     
  29. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    Every team is going 10-6/11-5
     
  30. bakedmatt

    bakedmatt Well-Known Member

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    We had a tough schedule heading into 2016, too: Patriots(x2), Jets (x2), Bengals, Steelers, Cardinals, Seahawks... That's eight games against double digit-win teams.
     
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