Prospects for 2015

Since when did Jameis Winston become "my boy"?

I'm just saying if you start criticizing Jameis Winston for being dumb, while calling him "Winston Jamesin" that just ends up looking really ironic and hilarious. All I am doing is giving you a pointer. You shouldn't call guys out for being dumb if you're going to confuse names, misspell everything and write with horrifying grammar.

If that suddenly makes Jameis Winston "my boy" then whatever. Personally I'm very concerned about the off field stuff with Winston. It's a bit irresponsible of you to assume you know what I think of Winston to the extent that you're now criticizing me for disregarding character in my evaluations.

 

QB Connor Cook, Michigan State (Class: 2016)

I had only looked superficially at Connor Cook of Michigan State and always liked what I saw there. Recently been taking a little deeper of a dive on him and he has the potential to be very good, IMO.

Anticipation, accuracy, ability to throw from different platforms and manage the play with things being thrown at him in the pocket...all very impressive. Nifty player. Good arm, too. Needs to get his mechanics a little more consistent and that will help him be more accurate, but he's an inherently accurate player. Not mechanical and I like that. Very fluid body control. He can really exploit the middle of the field with his ability to read the defense. I like that. Needs to clean up his decision-making under duress, can definitely be too aggressive that way at times. But if you have to have a problem with a QB prospect I think that's a good one to have. You like them to be aggressive but you ask them (over time) to find that fine line between aggressive and stupid, and don't cross it.

Connor Cook reminds me of Brett Favre.

Update (9/11/2014): Based on the Oregon tape, I still have questions about decision-making. There are still about 3 or 4 decisions in a game he will make that leave you wondering what coverage he thought he was seeing. His ball placement also still needs work. Otherwise, he's certainly got pro tools and executes pro plays on the football field. He can throw on the run, has a good pocket sense for pressure, generally finds the correct options and puts his players in position to make plays.

http://draftbreakdown.com/video/connor-cook-vs-oregon-2014/

 

WR Sammie Coates, Auburn (Class: 2016)

Sammie recently raised some eyebrows with a reported 40 time in the 4.3's at 6'2" & 201 lbs. He caught 42 balls for 902 yards (a whopping 21.5 yard average) with 7 touchdowns in 2013. Previously he caught 6 balls for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2012.

Seemed to rise to the occasion a lot. As a freshman, he caught a devastating hail mary from Kiehl Frazier heading into halftime of a tied game against UL-Monroe. He played 5 ranked teams in 2013 (LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama, Missouri and Florida State) and combined for 21 catches, 458 yards and 3 touchdowns in those games. He had at least 60 yards in every single one of those games.

The speed figure seems legitimate. He genuinely outran corners on a straight line. His quarterback could not always take advantage of this because of a weak arm and questionable accuracy, which makes the 21.5 yards per catch average all the more impressive.

The size also appears to be a legitimate listing, perhaps even understated. On the field he looks taller than most other players in the secondary. He looks very strong, and plays very strong.

Two things that stand out about Coates are the way he runs and his strength after the catch. On the latter, nobody will accuse him of being a Mike Evans because he is just not big enough to draw that comparison. However the strength he displays after the catch as well as on blocking plays and special teams plays are all very impressive. He plays like a big, strong player that cares about his weight room strength. One particular play that caught my attention this was was when he threw a Texas A&M defender to the ground after the catch.

People who love players that excel in "effort" areas will like him. He is a legitimate standout special teams performer on punt coverage. His blocking also sprung both Tre Mason and Nick Marshall for big gains on the outsides. Good blocking from the receivers was essential in Malzahn's system.

With respect to how he moves, it reminds me a lot of another Sammy...Sammy Watkins. He has the same balance and acceleration, overall movement skills. He has a valid transmission. One particular play that caught my attention was a stop-and-go against Texas A&M that was executed brilliantly. Often players arrest their momentum far too much, making the route too slow in execution and therefore dependent on the defender REALLY biting hard in order to work. Other times you see guys barely give a head fake, their speed barely slowing down on the route. Coates struck the perfect balance, showing great manipulation of his speed and his body language before exploding back into a vertical route.

He's been showing some signs of polish lately. In spring ball he caught an incredible one-handed catch in the end zone but what was perhaps just as impressive was his early recognition of the ball's trajectory and the way he used his body to keep the defender in jail before going up for the ball.

Seems like a good hands catcher. Allows the ball to fall softly into his hands on over the shoulder catches, can contort and go back for poorly placed footballs, catches screens easily.

Overall he has the talent to potentially be considered the best wide receiver in the class, pending Dorial Green-Beckham's off field issues. Coates' blend of upper and lower body strength, running and jumping ability, acceleration, body and speed manipulation, length and concentration on the football are potentially elite for a draft candidate.

Catch vs. Arkansas 2013 on a poorly placed ball
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P28KxQUxYpM&feature=player_detailpage#t=204

Huge play vs. Arkansas 2013 on a deep ball with run after catch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P28KxQUxYpM&feature=player_detailpage#t=222

Hail Mary castch vs. ULM 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQGNa1YeumQ

Deep TD vs. Arkansas State 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfZSjhOlOY4&feature=player_detailpage#t=66

Big catch vs. LSU 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfZSjhOlOY4&feature=player_detailpage#t=197

Another big catch vs. LSU 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfZSjhOlOY4&feature=player_detailpage#t=207

Big TD vs. Bama 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfZSjhOlOY4&feature=player_detailpage#t=331

Full Sammie Coates vs. Texas A&M highlights 2013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moLagY61lvc

One-hander in Spring 2014
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wo1_l1XNg4I

 

Ah that's who Connor Cook reminds me of. Very similar to Brett Favre.

 

QB Shane Carden, East Carolina (Class: 2015)

There's a lot to like about QB Shane Carden of ECU from both accuracy and decision-making standpoints. His technique seems very consistent as well. Gets the ball out very quickly.

But quarterback aesthetes are going to pick him apart for not being able to drive the football, in my opinion. That means you'll find guys like Greg Cosell setting up shop against Carden.

Even so, Shane Carden and especially Connor Cook look thus far to me like the quarterbacks most worth talking about aside fom the three everyone already talks about (Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley). Perhaps Kevin Hogan as well.

Wonder if a Matt Schaub comparison is apropos for Shane Carden.

Update (9/2/2014): There are some details in Carden's game that may need work, such as his tendency at times to pat the football. But ultimately the things people will tend to question the most are instances such as this throw against NC Central (0:30 in the video). You've got man coverage with no safety help to the inside, and you throw a 50 yard ball the receiver has to come back for, where a 55 or 60 yard ball would've been better. Teams will wonder whether he was just maxing out his arm, and it's not going to help the perception that he's not driving his intermediate throws to the perimeter (7:44 in the video).

Otherwise, he's got quick feet and mental processing. He shows textbook movement in the pocket. His biggest asset is his accuracy and ball placement, which may be the best in the draft at the position when all is said and done. Some teams say that accuracy and decision-making are the two most important factors for a quarterback. Those teams should end up with a high grade on Carden. Teams that place more importance on arm strength and tangibles will not.

 

Still believe Rakeem Cato is a nice x-factor. But his size tangibles are a significant obstacle for him.

 

While I have not done what I consider to be a "full dive" on the unit, I am not all that impressed with the defensive front line players for next year's draft. I'm looking right now at the big men, the defensive tackles and 3-4 defensive ends.

I think probably the best I've seen thus far are Gabe Wright of Auburn, Leonard Williams of USC and Xavier Cooper of Washington State. I probably enjoy watching Gabe Wright the most. Leonard Williams has the most potential, most likely. Xavier Cooper has some intrigue factor in that he's not been playing the right position yet he's played it well.

Nobody that jumps up and grabs me like Aaron Donald did when I first reviewed his tape around May of 2013. I don't know if there are any Star Lotulelei or Aaron Donald quality guys here. Might not even be any Ra'Shede Hageman or Sheldon Richardson guys here. I don't see a Dontari Poe, Fletcher Cox or Marcell Dareus.

There could be some Timmy Jernigans though.

I think the guys that have the best shot of jumping up and being like a Lotulelei, Donald, Richardson, Hageman, Poe, Cox or Dareus are the three I mentioned.

 

DE Shawn Oakman, Baylor (Class: 2016)

Shawn Oakman kind of indicative of how I feel about this defensive front line class.

Great potential on him. You look at his dimensions and then you look at the way he moves around, very intriguing. But what he's actually putting down on film in terms of efficiency and production isn't all that impressive really. He doesn't stay blocked because in the end a 6'8" & 275 lbs guy that moves as well as he does just isn't going to stay blocked. But he's also not necessarily beating people or getting by blockers frequently. He's pressing them, but not beating them.

So what is he as a prospect? A Quinton Coples, Calais Campbell or Kony Ealy? That won't have everyone drooling at the NFL level. But Oakman is probably going to end up a top 10 pick in this class, the way it's shaping up.

Randy Gregory is another like that. For all the potential that drips off him, you're not seeing a lot of overall effectiveness on the film.

Cedric Reed, Dante Fowler and Markus Golden are players that show a nice blend of potential and effectiveness, but they won't necessarily be touted by many as highly as Oakman and Gregory due to the ceiling issue. Not saying I disagree. Just makes this a bit of an enigmatic class.

Update (9/2/2014): It appears that the thinner 2014 iteration of Shawn Oakman has even more dry powder in his legs, which is impressive. If the problem in 2013 was that he just did not beat people consistently enough, thus far against a lowly opponent like SMU, that was not an issue. Virtually everything he tried against SMU sophomore LT Chauncey Briggs worked. It was bad enough that SMU switched Briggs out for sophomore Seaver Myers. He has lost so much weight he appears borderline thin considering his 6'8" frame. His pure strength has definitely declined. But that doesn't mean he lacks explosive strength in his bull rush, as his take-off plays a factor in the effectiveness of his speed-to-power move. However, in situations where his momentum is not a factor, the diminished strength becomes more apparent.

[video=youtube;QHO2xa2k6Tg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=QHO2xa2k6Tg[/video]

 

DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, Northwestern (Class: 2015)

Here's an interesting pure speed rusher. Just a redshirt sophomore. Needs to work on his balance and his plan of attack. But he really gets off the blocks and accelerates, and shows some spark when it comes to bending and getting back to the quarterback. Develop this guy and give him some polish, who knows?

DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, Northwestern
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVFWz2lCgmQ&feature=player_embedded

 

OLB Alvin Dupree, Kentucky (Class: 2016)

Alvin Dupree of Kentucky looks really good with his hand off the ground and being used in space as a linebacker.

If you're a 4-3 defense, I would not evaluate him as a defensive end. I would have him as a straight linebacker. His pursuit speed to the edge of the field is very, very good for that position. Fluid mover. Versatility to rush the passer. Good prospect. Not one I would consider to be part of the group of "defensive front" players that I have been lamenting a little bit.

I could definitely imagine "Bud" Dupree being rated the best linebacker in the 2015 NFL Draft.

 

DE Adam Gotsis, Georgia Tech (Class: 2016)

I was referred to Adam Gotsis of Georgia Tech by probably the best online scouting guy I know and I can absolutely see why.

This guy is young but he's built just right for how young he is, and he is very explosive. He's 6'5" and probably 275-280 lbs so he's still got weight to gain, but he was only a sophomore last year.

He's #96. You really only need to see a few snaps to understand the potential he has.

[video=youtube;rwxu5m-fqZg]https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=rwxu5m-fqZg[/video]

 

http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...lphins-Draft&p=2377573&viewfull=1#post2377573

 

Saw a couple of players playing early last night that I was happy to see playing so early even if it was just the first preseason game.

Alden Darby played a lot of snaps for the Chargers in the 1st half. He must be doing well in camp. Zurlon Tipton got some early carries with the Colts.

Travis Kelce had some great plays for the Chiefs.

 

Did the exact same thing to Duke in the Belk Bowl as I recall. Outran the whole defense just like that. Dude's fast.

 

LB Shaq Thompson, Washington (Class: 2016)

If we're on the subject of linebackers, I really liked Washington Huskie Shaq Thompson's tape of the game he played against UCLA. It wasn't one of those things where you see solid play and then one or two really big ones. This was just play after play after play of excellent work.

Shaq Thompson isn't much bigger than a Ramik Wilson but you don't see his size deficiency come into play as frequently, most likely because of a combination of his frame (seems like he has longer arms) and trigger. When he's in pursuit of the ball, there's definitely more of a feel that nothing is going to get in his way. That's why all of his tapes are heavy on special teams footage. He's a really good gunner because he gets to high speeds and just doesn't give a f-ck about whatever is in his way. He's also genuinely fast. I believe he'll run in the 4.5's. You can see his versatility to be used in coverage by the places on the field he ends up aligned. He's practically a defensive back on a lot of plays.

Seriously, this is a stunningly good tape:

[video=youtube;b7ihqSNZt1g]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b7ihqSNZt1g&feature=player_embedded[/video]

This guy really gets my blood going, sort of like Aaron Donald used to a few years ago. I wouldn't say people don't know about Shaq Thompson. He's being commonly rated very high. But I'm a believer now.

 

LB Ramik Wilson, Georgia (Class: 2015)

I think there are physical shortcomings with Ramik Wilson that will hinder him at the next level. He's a little small, and it affects what he's able to do on the field with fair frequency. He's not especially fast to make up for it like you'd see with a Mychal Kendricks or someone like that. There's also a tendency in his game to get frozen up with hesitation especially as he pursues the ball and is trying to weed through trash. He'll need to lose that and develop more of a get-outta-my-way mentality. I'm not trying to pick the guy apart but I don't know that he's going to be a 1st rounder like you say, and those are the reasons why.

LB Chi Chi Ariguzo, Northwestern (Class: 2015)

Chi Chi Ariguzo is a solid player and pretty physical, big and strong. The problem I saw with him on my initial tape view was just the pure athleticism doesn't seem to be there. The COD skills, agility and acceleration might not be there on him.

You have to remember that linebacker is a dying position in the NFL. It's being squeezed terribly by trends that see offenses spreading the field and putting defenses in nickel more often than not. Nowadays a top quality linebacker prospect has to be a nickel coverage linebacker FIRST, and a dominant run presence/striker second. Half of these guys that you see currently rated high by sources like NFL Draft Scout, if they really do run in the mid-4.7's, they're not really going to go as high as currently thought. Just something to keep in mind.

 

I think that if those are your two big priorities then that's going to have you focusing on linebackers that are really just average at the NFL level, or even guys that can't even make a team.

The movement skills have become really important at that position. You can't just dismiss that as "Combine" stuff. There is no Combine yet. It hasn't happened. We're looking at film and judging players' physical prowess based on the film. If you can see that a guy is kind of slow on film then that's a problem, it points to deficiencies on the field that will make it tough for him to translate.

I mean do yourself a favor and go to CFBStats.com and click on the "National" section, go to National Player Leaders and click on Tackles. Then go back to years like 2007, 2008 and 2009. Sort by tackles per game. Out of the top 20's in 2007 & 2008 how many actually went on to do anything in the NFL? You've got Curtis Lofton who made some noise but only as a 2-down player. You have Erin Henderson who I believe is a free agent right now playing phone tag with nobody in particular. The best ones are really Sean Weatherspoon, James Laurinaitis, Dan Connor, Sean Lee and Wesley Woodyard. Well there were 33 other players who were top production guys who went on to do next to nothing at the NFL level.

The linebackers out there that are consistently the best, consistently the guys everyone looks up to, they can really move generally speaking. You can watch the film on them and see it. Patrick Willis was a physical dynamo. I remember NaVorro Bowman was quick as hell on tape. Luke Kuechly was also real fast and it showed at the Combine. Jerod Mayo is fast. Wesley Woodyard is fast. Lavonte David is hella fast and agile. Brian Cushing was always an uber-athlete at USC, in fact some suspected a little too much so (PEDs). I remember Derrick Johnson coming out of Texas was a physical dynamo. Same with Karlos Dansby and Brian Urlacher. Daryl Washington also a 4.5's type of dynamic athlete.

If your priorities are on production and instincts I think you're going to end up with 1st round grades on a bunch of guys like Nick Bellore and Scott McKillop. You have to pay attention to how these guys move on tape. For some reason people have stigmatized the "Combine" as being so irrelevant (it's not) that they don't even want to evaluate movement skills on tape. But that's the very basis of what we're doing here, figuring out which guys move the best and are physically more dynamic on the football field. That leads to the NFL production.

 

OLB Kyler Fackrell, Utah State (Class: 2016)

The guy I have some trouble with is Kyler Fackrell.

The way he's built and the way he moves, I think you have to evaluate him as like a rush linebacker. If he's a regular linebacker you start to realize, I don't need a guy this big. I'm not going to keep ratcheting up a real linebacker's overall grade simply because he's two inches taller than the prototype. But the additional height and girth definitely does detract from his movement skills, and those are what I need if I'm looking at him as like a real 4-3 type linebacker. So you start evaluating him as a rush linebacker where length can make a difference, and where the guy doesn't necessarily have to move around like Mychal Kendricks.

But when evaluated as a pass rusher, are we really seeing a GREAT pass rusher? Because if we're not, then whatever multiple style team he goes to will keep trying to replace him with the newest line of Barkevious Mingo dolls to hit the market, or the team he's on will convert to a 4-3 and have no place for him because he's not a Von Miller and there's no use trying to build your defense around him as if he is a Von Miller.

Basically we might be looking at a guy like Jarret Johnson. You can win a lot of games with Jarret Johnson, but teams don't necessarily covet Jarret Johnson...and Jarret Johnson's fate is controlled by defensive coordinators who either build their schemes according to their rigid beliefs or according to needle-moving chess pieces on the defense, which aren't Jarret Johnson.

Update (9/2/2014): Tore his ACL in the first game of the year against Tennessee. He was looking good in the game, too. Especially as a blitzer which is where he presents a potentially compelling NFL future. I feel bad for the young man.

 

There are huge problems with this argument though.

Among them is an internal consistency problem regarding your production doctrine. You list a bunch of guys with widely varying production stats. I mean yeah you've got high 130-140 tackle guys liks Kuechly, Willis, David and Mayo...right next to a NaVorro Bowman who had 93 tackles according to CFBStats.com. You've got guys like NaVorro Bowman with 17 TFLs, Kuechley and David with 12 TFLs, next to someone like Mayo who had 8 TFLs. Some of those guys you listed interceptions, some you didn't because they don't have any. You list sacks even though that's an entirely scheme-driven statistic on a linebacker. There are big internal consistency problems. Seems like the standards for "production" can be manipulated to include or disinclude whomever you want, especially when considering the differences of position between OLB and ILB. I notice you didn't really list Daryl Washington (8.4 tackles per game) or Brian Cushing (5.6 tackles per game) in there...nor Karlos Dansby (7.6 tackles per game) for that matter.

The second major issue is in regards to all the high production guys out there that didn't make it. There are dozens guys with the same kind of production as the guys you list that don't do anything in the NFL, all the Jordan Dizons and Andy Katzenmoyers of the world, for every one that does actually make it. On the other hand, no there really are not that many linebackers floating around in college football running 4.5's at 235-245 lbs and moving around on the field on tape like those elite pros I listed. There are definitely some that can move that don't make it, but not like the dozens of high production guys that don't make it every year.

The third major issue here is comparing apples to oranges in terms of looking at Shaq Thompson's sophomore season production versus the final year production of all those guys you listed. Sure it makes your argument look more compelling but it's not a fair comparison. If you shifted things to a real apples to apples basis, all the sudden the argument looks a bit weaker. Guys like Bowman, Mayo and Dansby were only averaging 7 or 8 tackles per game, while Daryl Washington averaged 5 tackles per game and Brian Cushing was getting fewer than 3 tackles per game.

I think production is important at the position because you want to see a guy's physical ability translate on the field. But the most important thing to evaluate is the tape, not the numbers. The numbers at that position are far too dependent on both the style of defense and the quality of the players ahead and beside you. They're also obviously dependent on your position.

For these reasons there's no way that I would START with the numbers and then say it's nice to ALSO have great movement skills, as if the latter is a luxury. I think that's a trap. Like I said, if you were stuck in a vaccuum and couldn't check which guys rate highly on NFL Draft Scout or CBS or all these websites then you're going to end up putting 1st round grades on guys like Scott McKillop and Nick Bellore.

First thing's first and that's all about the film, studying how the player moves, his physical dimensions, strength and explosiveness. After that you start looking for production and if you see production that's great as it really bolsters the argument. If you don't see production that's not at all a deal-breaker, you just have to start answering the question of why this guy doesn't have production. If it's because he's got terrible instincts and you don't think they're coachable then that could be an issue. But if you find that he's doing the best he can with what's around him and within the role set for him, then you don't care about the numbers.

 

Yeah but you're not making that judgment about Nick Bellore in a vaccuum. You've got the luxury of all these websites, media coverage, etc...telling you who all the highly rated prospects are. If you're a scout, you don't have that. You're the one that has to take a group of 300 names at one position and sort them out based on their pro potential. If you lived in a bubble and you placed as much priority as you say on production first and physical ability as just a nice luxury, you absolutely are going to end up with 1st round grades on guys like Nick Bellore and Scott McKillop. You can't just dismiss that because you've "never heard of them".

 

When it comes to recruiting at the high school level I imagine the availability of film is so scarce and the acquisition of this film so tricky that you had no choice but to apply a heavy-handed statistics-based screening tool.

But going from college to pro is a different story. Tape is readily available. Easily. And yes, some of it could very well be on YouTube. Tape is tape. Coaches tape is preferable, but it isn't necessarily a non-starter if you don't have it. Word of mouth from teams' strength and conditioning coaches is important. They tip you off to the most physically impressive guys they have on the roster.

 

This is freaking stupid.

On that Fanspeak On the Clock Draft I just picked up:

R1: QB Jameis Winston, Florida State
R2: RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
R3: DE/OLB Alvin Dupree, Kentucky
R4: WR Sammie Coates, Auburn
R5: OG Arie Kouandjio, Alabama
R6: WR Austin Hill, Arizona
R7: CB Greg Henderson, Colorado