QB Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

Much like I did with QB Ryan Mallett of Arkansas, I wanted to delve into another QB prospect that could very well be an issue for the Miami Dolphins in the upcoming Draft.

Again I will start by telling you about where I have him, in case you don't want to bother reading down. Based on close scrutiny of the player, I believe him to be either the #2 or #3 QB in the Draft, behind Andrew Luck, and in the neighborhood of Cam Newton. I've yet to decide whether Newton goes above or below him.

As Simon recently pointed out to me, some scouts have been telling Tony Pauline that Gabbert is their #2 quarterback in the Draft. So again, I emphasize, this is a guy we need to start talking about.

Background: His background checks out as well as you could ask. He was one of the most sought-after quarterback prospects in the nation coming out of High School, a five-star guy, the #1 player in the state of Missouri. He chose Missouri over the likes of Nebraska, Oregon, Tennessee, Alabama, Iowa, Kansas, Kansas State and Minnesota. He chose Missouri for obvious reasons (close to home) and then volunteered to help with Missouri's recruiting efforts. He was also an All Conference baseball player.

Surrounding Cast & Offense: The Missouri offense has some tradition at the Tight End position where Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman have starred in the past. Michael Egnew has legitimately carved out his place succeeding them. Though this is very much a spread option style offense, it is not one that has prevented the development of NFL players. Martin Rucker bounced around the league a little despite athleticism that was unimpressive at the next level, and Chase Coffman still bounces around a bit despite being entirely one-dimensional. Jeremy Maclin is a starter in Philadelphia and Danario Alexander has become a pretty successful rookie NFL player. Chase Daniel persists as a backup QB in the NFL. With Danario gone, I would say the overall talent in the offense has gone down quite a bit. Alexander had something ridiculous like 1800 yards and 14 TDs in 2009 with Gabbert throwing to him. Without his services, Gabbert turned to true sophomore T.J. Moe, as well as Egnew, and Gabbert's numbers have gone down quite a bit. The players in general are not very good at dealing with physical coverage, they're not all that fast, and they have trouble running under the deep throw. They don't come back to the quarterback enough, considering the style of offense they run. The offensive line is also very spotty and there's nothing impressive about the backs coming out of the backfield. From the games I saw, it wasn't surprising to discover that his average distance on 3rd and 4th downs when he had his number called was 3rd/4th & 8.

Throwing Skills: His arm is very good. You're not going to confuse him with Jamarcus Russell but he is at the level below that. He gets a very tight spiral, spins the ball really well, and his throws work very well in heavy conditions as he cuts the wind. When he really squeezes the ball, the velocity and trajectory on his 25 yard throw can be as good as I've seen it, we're talking frozen rope stuff, and that's with windy conditions. He doesn't necessarily need a full follow-through in order to get velocity on his passes, which is a difference between he and a Pat Devlin.

Throwing Mechanics: His throwing mechanics are off, and so the arm strength will sometimes look bad on the deep vertical. There's an awkwardness there that will have to be worked on at the pro level big time. He needs to step through his throws more, as he's bad with using his feet and hips to follow through on his throws. The problem is consistency, more so than ability. He shows a good release point at times and he also shows follow-through, and when he does he has some pretty good looking throws. I'm not worried about the release as it will get better the more he works on it, and I think his arm strength is a big plus, so I wouldn't be scared off by his mechanics or arm.

Pocket Mechanics: He has a consistently sluggish setup in his drop and this is issue #1 that I would work on at the next level. He isn't as totally uncommitted to the art of setting up like Cam Newton is, but if you were to stand he and Pat Devlin side by side, even though they both come from shotgun offenses, it couldn't be more clear which guy's footwork and setup project better to the NFL. The setup may be a symptom of underlying issues, and either the underlying issues or the setup itself cause him problems in other areas of his game that he needs to address at the next level. If the feet working slowly because his mind works slowly, then the slow setup is a red flag. On the other hand, as the play progresses, Gabbert's feet get quicker and quicker. He has the instincts to use the pocket by stepping up, into and through it, instead of running away from it, and that's a very good thing. If you rattle him hard, he can at times start to feel phantom pressure and shy away from the pocket a little bit, but with the heavy duress I've seen him under at times, this is only natural. He slides well and naturally and I don't get issues with balls batted down for him, even though his release point can be on the low side.

Offensive Command: There is some relative weakness in this category. He doesn't have command of the offense like some of the seniors or older, more experienced players I've graded (Mallett among them, he's older and has more experience than Gabbert). He has responsibilities and he executes them well for the most part, however in the Nebraska game they had repeated issues with getting the unit lined up in a timely fashion, having to burn timeouts, and even at one point burning a timeout he didn't have and therefore drawing a penalty. At another point he came out of the huddle with 12 men on the offense and didn't realize it until they lined up, and then it was too late because he had no more timeouts, due to miscues. He had some similar need for burning timeouts in other games, like Texas A&M and Oklahoma. However, the guy performs pretty well late in the game, and his 2nd Half QB Rating (87.9) seems consistently higher than his 1st Half QB Rating (81.7). He converts 50% of his 3rd and 4th down situations when he has 7 yards to go or less.

Reading Defenses: He shows that he can see the field, and can make appropriate decisions on when to pull down the ball, throw it away, or attack the defense. One thing he consistently shows is good low peripheral vision and ability to know when an underneath defender is in his passing lane. This helps him avoid batted passes, as well as turnovers. He seems a very risk-averse decision maker and his 1.8% career interception rate is not coincidental. He throws the ball away often and he runs it for positive yardage. Because he is in a spread option offense, a good number of reads will be pre-snap design. The ability to make timely reads is going to be a weakness in his stock, as well as that of Cam Newton. But, it's different from a guy like Jake Locker. Gabbert and Newton show the ability to read the defenses and find the right throw, when they're asked to do it. Jake Locker's offense by its nature asked him to do that on a regular basis, and he consistently showed that he was incapable of that, and so the offense changed to suit him. That's a big difference. When he throws the ball away or tucks it and runs, I usually don't see where he could have gone with the football. That's one difference between he and Cam Newton. With Newton, I often feel when he tucks the ball to scramble that he's ignoring or not seeing a downfield option. However, there are times when he feels the clock go off in his head, and takes his eyes off the field a little unnecessarily. He seems to get better at reading the defense and having a feel for what he's doing for them and what will work for him, as the game wears on. He flashes the ability to manipulate defenders with his eyes but he doesn't do it enough. The worst aspect of his game is that his slow setup and tendency toward his 1st read can give the defense opportunities to get to the ball early. It doesn't happen often, but it does happen.

Timing & Anticipation: His timing and anticipation are really mediocre at best. The slow setup really hurts this aspect of his game. It's something for him to work on. At times he can release the ball a hair late, after the player's break. It's not Chad Henne bad, but it's something he needs to work on from a consistency standpoint, because he'll go a game or two where his timing and anticipation are spot on, and then he'll go a game or two where he's late on a fair number of throws. One of the big pluses on his timing is that he seems to have a good clock in his head when setting up in the pocket. He knows when he's been in the pocket too long and he needs to start making something happen. However, I don't sense that the clock in his head makes him rush through his progressions and miss open people, as Chad Henne has been accused over the years. I think he is coached to make a certain number of reads on his plays and then flip the improv switch to start creating, and this often avails him as his offensive line is not particularly good. Nebraska consistently pressured and beat the heck out of him with four rushers.

Ball Location: Again, this is very mediocre for a starter at the next level. He does not miss a high percentage of passes and his career 60.2% completion is well-earned in my opinion, on both the good and bad side. The most consistent problem area is his placement on the deep ball. He does not get it to the outside shoulder and sometimes his mechanics will break down completely, looking awkward. When he gets the mechanics right, he settles into some nicely thrown balls but still most often placed too far ahead or too far inside. His location on his short passes can be inconsistent as well. His receivers may not be the fastest bunch or the most dangerous, but they do at times bail him out on balls that are not put in the bread basket. Remember, inconsistency is not the same as inaccuracy, and his miss percentage is low. Considering he still has technical issues to work out in his mechanics, there's actually upside in his location because I find when he gets the mechanics right, his location is better.

Under Pressure: He might be the best of the quarterbacks in this Draft under pressure, and that's saying something because Andrew Luck can create and handles pressure very well, and of course Cam Newton is Cam Newton. Gabbert is able to make the first rusher miss a very high percentage of the time, and then he uses his feet to start creating. He senses the pocket's collapse, and it's not easy to rattle him. He has been hit HARD with illegal blows to the head and all manner of hits, and he's popped up and punched back on the very next play. That's a fighting mentality and I like it. He can at times be inconsistent with his ability to pull the ball down, reset and then find someone with his arm. But then, half the time, he does exactly that. Believe it or not, this is not an ability that you see often in college. Ryan Mallett lacks it almost completely. Jake Locker has it once in a blue moon. Andrew Luck is the only other quarterback in this draft aside from Cam Newton that satisfies me in this regard. But, then as I mentioned before, I feel like when Newton begins his scramble, he often has guys wide open right in front of him that he doesn't see or try to hit with his arm, preferring instead the throw. Blaine Gabbert's decision-making and ability to create under duress is at a pro level. He throws the ball away often, and when he does that I can rarely come up with an instance where I thought he had an open underneath option. He almost never does something confoundingly stupid with the ball when under pressure. Most often he throws the ball away or gains a yard or two with his feet. But I would say maybe a third of the time, he rips off a big run, or gets a pass into the defense that both makes sense, and gets some good yardage.

Touch: Pro level. With such an at times low delivery, you would think he would struggle more with the up-and-down throw than he does...but he really does not. He gets the ball over the linebackers and into a spot in the defense. When he's got his feet right he is able to drop the vertical down the chimney, just not often in the right spot. He knows when touch is necessary and knows when it's not. If there's one issue in this area it's that sometimes he can gun a shorter throw a little harder than necessary. That's a little nitpicky. I have only seen one true RB screen and the touch was good on it, but the low number of reps makes that an open question.

On-Field Demeanor: I haven't noticed any issues with this. There have been suggestions that he's not super well liked by teammates but I haven't been able to confirm and it may be total garbage. Here is what I know, and that is that I don't see him openly blaming receivers, getting mad at them and letting the world know he thinks they screwed up. I don't see any "I don't give a rats arse" throws that are selfish in nature, symptom of a guy that feels he's getting no help and therefore is just giving up on a play. What I have seen, however, is this guy get beat the eff up by some defenses physically, and him get up and punch back on the very next play. He's not exuberant and you wouldn't accuse him of being giddy on the field. After about the third or fourth illegal hit taken straight to the face against the Nebraska defense, he still gets up and the very next play makes a nice scramble for 12 yards on an impossible 3rd & 22. The guy keeps working and he keeps punching.

Feet: This guy is going to run pretty fast on a track. When he gets on the hoof I expect him to show Jay Cutler type speed, and he shows that he can get out of trouble on the move with his feet and quickness. Just because he's a little on the slow side with his footwork on his pocket mechanics (not nearly as slow and relaxed as Cam Newton mind you), don't let that fool you into thinking he doesn't have quick feet. He can set and reset his feet with quickness, and buy time in the face of pressure, running for yards. More often than not when he gets a single guy coming in on him, he is going to make him miss and buy a little extra time, and that's a very important ability. Whether he does something great with the ball through the air afterwards is an open question, he ends up with a fair number of throwaways and 2 yard running gains in that sort of situation.

Overall: As you read through each individual aspect of his game, it gets easy to get a little lost in the minutae. That's why I want to emphasize a few things in this particular player. His combination of size, feet, arm strength, accuracy, touch, and ability under pressure are uncommon in a quarterback prospect. Think about that. All of those things, he has them. His feet and escapability are about as good as you get outside of a Michael Vick/Vince Young/Cam Newton type prospect. His arm strength is about as good as it gets outside of a Jamarcus Russell/Kyle Boller/Joe Flacco type prospect. His accuracy is pro caliber, though there is still some meat left one the bone for him to work on as far as ball placement. And to top it off, he has an understanding of touch, when it is needed, and how to use it. With those things in his corner, and especially with his escapability and handling of pressure, he can learn the rest on the go. I'm not seeing a guy that is incapable of reading a defense or going through his progressions. He shows safe decision making, the aggressiveness to fit the ball into a tight space, and the awareness of threats to his passing lane. I'm not seeing a guy that lets his team down in the clutch, or shows poor leadership on the field. He seems to get stronger as games go on. I'm not seeing a guy that needs his coaches to do everything for him because he can't be a field general. This is a young guy that will get better in many respects, and has the physical and mental tools to play immediately and not be overwhelmed. This is a young player that at times looks young and looks like he still has a lot to work on. But, the upside story is tremendous. There are guys out there I feel have fatal flaws, or upside limiters. He does not have either, which may make him the #2 QB prospect behind only Andrew Luck, or I may decide to put him behind Cameron Newton due to Newton's even higher potential upside. There is still only one passer in this Draft that I would bet the franchise on, but that doesn't mean I couldn't get with the idea of taking a guy like Gabbert in the mid-1st round. I would not recommend Ryan Mallett with that kind of pick, and I sure as heck wouldn't recommend Jake Locker with it, but Blaine Gabbert could definitely get my nod of approval.

 

I think that's an apropriate comparison for him. I was going to compare him to Josh Freeman or Ben Roethlisberger.

 

Sky high view: you have a guy that handles a pass rush and handles pressure well enough and with quick enough feet to consistently convert pressure into positive run and pass plays rather than negative sacks and/or turnovers, and it happens to be on a guy with a 6'5" and 240 lbs frame, with a rocket arm, NFL accuracy, and an understanding of how to use touch.

Sign...me...up.

I'll teach him the rest.

 

Foles has indicated he is staying in school, which is not surprising. The last I had heard, Gabbert intended to come out, but of course I imagine a lot depends on what grade the Advisory Board are giving him. Based on what Simon pointed out to me that TFY has heard, and based on my close scrutiny of his games, I believe Gabbert will get a high grade and he will come out.

 

Remember that looking off defenders and reading defenses are the weaknesses in Gabbert's game. Pat Devlin has a PhD in that stuff. Gabbert's working on his GED.

 

Agree with all of the above. Mallett tempts me in Round 2. Locker wouldn't tempt me until Round 3 and even then I'd probably wait until Round 4. Terrelle Pryor, I'm not sure I'd take him in any round.

And I was under the impression Luck was all but a lock to come out.

 

Foles is not coming out, as per Foles himself. Seen players change their mind, but I doubt he does.

 

If Andrew Luck does not come out that would send some pretty big shockwaves. The Cam Newton question will suddenly get a lot more hot and heavy because it'll be a question that pertains to the #1 overall pick. That could put Blaine Gabbert out of reach of the Miami Dolphins, if he wasn't already destined to be in the top 10.

That would put Miami having to think about Ryan Mallett at #16 or Pat Devlin/Christian Ponder in a trade down scenario. I don't like that. I like Pat Devlin, but he's not going to play right away.

 

I don't see how we end up in the 13-14 range even if we lose. We're currently #16 when you figure that the Rams or Seahawks will win the division and be in the playoffs. If we lose and the Raiders win, then I think we'd jump up one spot to #15. But with us playing the Patriots' backups and the Raiders playing a Chiefs team that is still actively vying for playoff positioning, that in itself seems an unlikely scenario. We could pick even lower than #16 to my knowledge, if we win and the Chargers and/or Jaguars lose. Our strength of schedule might be the highest in the NFL. But the Chargers play the Denver Broncos and the Jaguars play the Houston Texans...and so it seems more likely both teams will win and go 9-7 for the winning record.