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QB Plans - Yay or Nay?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 20, 2019.

Please choose if you would be happy to:

  1. Take Tua with Our Top Pick

    10 vote(s)
    29.4%
  2. Take Burrow with Our Top Pick

    14 vote(s)
    41.2%
  3. Trade up to get Tua No Matter What

    2 vote(s)
    5.9%
  4. Trade up to get Burrow No Matter What

    6 vote(s)
    17.6%
  5. Trade up for another QB not matter what - Specify who in the comments.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Take Herbert with Our Top Pick

    2 vote(s)
    5.9%
  7. Take Fromm/Love/Hurts with Our Top Pick

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. Take From/Love/Hurts later in the first round.

    7 vote(s)
    20.6%
  9. Take Tua later in the first round.

    11 vote(s)
    32.4%
  10. Not take a QB in the first round.

    5 vote(s)
    14.7%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Okay, here are a few possible routes the Dolphins could take for QB in the Draft, please vote in the pole to state if you would be happy with them if the Dolphins took that route. You can vote for more than one because it's not a comparison of the options, but whether you would personally be happy with each of them should they happen.

    These are different scenarios, some less likely than others, so for each one assume that the scenario happens, and then vote for each one to state whether you would be happy with that choice if it happened.
     
  2. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    So for my part, and per my other thread about my personal take on draft expectations, I'm pretty wide open on this. I almost don't mind who the Dolphins take, I'm just eager to see things work out. I acknowledge that I'm no NFL evaluator and the professionals may see things I don't - I certainly hope they will. And so no matter who we pick, I'm just hopeful to see that we get our guys.

    That said, if we trade up and sell the farm, or half the farm... or two farms, then I think I'll only be happy if that's Burrow or maybe Tua - at least, I'll understand why. Anyone else and I'll be nervous. (I'll be nervous for anyone we pick where we mortgage our draft).

    If we pick a QB later then if Tua's there I'll be very happy to take a shot. If we end up taking Fromm/Love/Hurts later in the first then, for me, we'll be 'I hope you know what you're doing' territory. I think I'd go Hurts over the other two, but I'd rank them Hurts, Fromm, Love.

    Herbert would concern me the most because I don't rate physical tools over mental acuity. If Herbert doesn't have what it takes to make good decisions I don't care how big he is or how fast he can throw the ball.

    If somehow we don't get a QB in the first round then I won't necessarily be upset, but I'll be wondering what the plan is... particularly if some of the bigger names haven't dropped into the second round etc. Obviously, if the team have spotted a gem available in the later rounds, and he works out, then great, but I'm not sure how you spot a gem and then risk leaving him until later.

    If we don't take any QB1 prospect this draft then I'm going to be even more curious. I guess we'll be rolling with Fitz-Rosen 2020, and see what happens. If Tua decides not to declare then I think that'll be what people suspect... but, since "tanking" has been so hard this year, it can only be harder next year, right? That being the case, I don't know how the FO would expect to grab a top prospect in 2021 without using almost every pick available, and even then only if other teams don't want to take a QB. It's a massive gamble. If that becomes the target then I would expect to see us trade back a lot this draft to accumulate 2021 draft picks. And that won't be fun.

    As long as we win... I guess.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Of the choices above, the safest bets are simply taking the best known QB's with pick 'x' (with the exception of Tua, who now comes with a health risk).

    As of right now at least some people will be happy with the big name trade up, but there's no love whatsoever for Herbert/Fromm/Love/Hurts at the top pick position and, of course, trading up for them.

    The trade ups for Tua/Burrow are arguable the riskier moves from an expense point of view. Then again, from a performance stand point it could be argued they're safer, no matter the cost. I'm curious to see how many will be happy with trade up scenarios.
     
  4. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    I think there is no love for trading up for any of those guys because they should all be available still at the LEAST in the middle of the 1st.
     
  5. BrazForPhins

    BrazForPhins From south

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    Hard to say now. Depends too much on the pick. If it’s 1st overall i’d answer one thing, if 2nd/3rd other thing.. if 4th/6th range other.. and 7th/10th range, other.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  6. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Fair enough.

    What would you be happy to do for:

    Tua
    Burrow
    Fromm
    Love
    Hurts
    Herbert
    Other...?
     
  7. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Obviously way to early to be definitive. I chose all except the "trade up at all costs" options and the Fromm/Love/Hurts first overall. The "all costs" threw me off, but I'd be willing to make a move if we need to. At this point in time, the Fromm/Love/Hurts trio are just not top 5 overall material. We will see what happens the rest of the season and through the pre-draft process. For instance, if Fromm lights up LSU in the SEC championship? Or if Hurts goes off on Alabama in a NY6 bowl? That might change things.

    I'm still in on Tua. The injuries are a bit concerning, but he's not Bradford. If the doctors say he checks out, he's the most talented of the QBs by a fair bit imo. Burrow has talent and definitely "it" as well. Herbert has the tangibles, does he have the intangibles?
     
    Tin Indian and Galant like this.
  8. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    Just 2 weeks ago Todd McShay had Tua as the top prospect. Today he isnt even in his Top 5 and Herbert who i dont like jumped in the top 5
     
  9. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Well, with no secondary to speak of left, I think the Phins lose out the rest of the way. Washington and the Giants play a game so one of them ends up with another win (okay, slight chance of a tie) which puts either of them behind Miami in the draft. Which gives us the #3 pick in 2020.

    Not the worst place to be. I'd offer the Bengals #3 and #15 (best guess on Steeler pick) to move up to #1 for Burrow. They might bite as they could grab Tua and still have another first rounder to fill a need, but they probably stay with the safer pick in Burrow (health concerns).

    That means Washington or the Giants pick up Young, with an outside chance they opt for a stud LT to protect their QB. Does Miami grab Tua right there? Depends on his recovery. If he has a setback in rehab, gets behind schedule as far as running and throwing? No way I'm risking the #3 pick. If Tua is right on schedule, able to run and throw, then I'd probably risk it.

    It gets complicated if the #2 pick is NOT Young. If Tua is not on schedule for his recovery, it's an easy choice to take Young and wait on Tua to drop to #15. Even if he is on schedule, I'd probably take Young and look to trade back up to about #7-8 to get Tua. Yeah, giving up the other two first rounders to get him.

    We come away on the first day with Young and Tua (who makes a full recovery) and the whole draft is already a success.

    I wrote all the above, but as I look at schedules, things really need to play out. The Bengals might be tanking, but they have a ton of divisional games left to play and strange things happen. A win over a wounded Steelers team, then the Jets find a way to Gase their game against them? We still play them, and we should be starting Rosen to see how it goes. We still need to see if Josh has improved, as Fitzmagic playing does us no good long term. So, if we lose the Bengals game (the most likely win left on our schedule) we could move up to the #1 pick. We could also win a game and drop down to #5 or so.

    A month ago Miami was locked into the #1 pick and 0-16, who knows how things play out.
     
    pumpdogs, Tin Indian and Fin-O like this.
  10. Makados10

    Makados10 Active Member

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    What team has ever said it over drafted an elite QB and got poor value for the pick?

    If a QB isnt worth draft with the #4 or whatever the Fins end up then he's not worth drafting. You either forecast Tua will recover & be elite or you don't.

    Dont play the "value" game with getting a QB. Yes, I know great QBs slide later in the first round. That doesn't mean those teams were smart for draft Maholmes, Watson, Jsckson, etc later for better "value". The lesson is the teams drafting ahead screwed up their talent evaluation because those QBs would all be gone in the first handful of picks if drafted in hindsight.
     
  11. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    If Burrow is available for us, I think we certainly should take a long look. I think he would be a tremendous fit with O’Shea.

    Issue is, I think he will be in Orange and Black.
     
    KeyFin and Tin Indian like this.
  12. Phin McCool

    Phin McCool Well-Known Member

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    I have us picking #3 behind the Bengals and Redskins. I expect Bengals to pick Burrow, Redskins - Young, so I would pick up Tua with our first pick, providing that he's made, or is on course to make, a full recovery. I'm still all in on Tua. Personally, I think Herbert is over rated. If I had to take anyone apart from Tua, it would be Burrow but I have him Cincy bound and I wouldn't trade up just to get him. To me, Herbert, Love, Fromm, Hurts etc are no better than the class of 2018 with Darnold, Rosen, Allen and the like. I liked Mayfield the best out of that bunch and Tua is light years ahead of him.

    If Tua is available to us with our first, I snap him up. I wouldn't start playing games and messing about, waiting to see if he's still there for our 2nd because he won't be.
     
  13. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    If Chase Young is available, he should be considered especially if Burrow is off the board. I wish there was an option of draft the best QB available with our second or third first round pick (depending on who is available).
     
    Fin-O likes this.
  14. Striking

    Striking Junior Member

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    Can't take a chance on Tua early in round one. You have to invest way too many years waiting to see if he ever recovers. Maybe that changes in April.

    Bengals can always draft Hebert...never know
     
    Tin Indian likes this.
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    No way, barring some huge late-season meltdown, Burrow is going #1 overall.

    I voted to take Tua with either of our later round 1 picks...simply because I don't think anyone in the top 10 will waste their pick on a guy who may never play again. Even though the surgery went well, we won't know for sure on Tua until this time next year at a minimum....meaning everyone would be picking him sort of blind in the draft. He will be there in the teens and maybe the 20's....I'd get him in the teens though.
     
  16. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    I would like to see both of my options. Burrow with the first pick and Hurts with last 1st rounder.
     
  17. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    He should hands down be the pick if they pass on a QB.
     
  18. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Young
    Herbert
     
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  19. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I wouldn't take a QB with the first pick unless Burrow was there. I wouldn't even consider Tua in the first round considering he's only one inch and about 10 lbs bigger than Pat White. It's going to be a multi-year rebuild so, I'd go heavy on defense and o-line this draft and look for a QB in 2021. Chase Young would be awesome with the first pick.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  20. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Oh no. Burrow is going #1. I was referring to his comment on the lack of love for Fromm, Herbert, Love and Hurts at the top of the draft.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  21. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    According to the draft value chart moving from 3 to 1 is 800 pts.Meaning pick 21 which could be around where are 3rd 1st rd pick if colts win the division over the texans.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  22. BrazForPhins

    BrazForPhins From south

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    a top 3 pick I’d spend only for Burrow. I like the idea of trading back a bit for more 2021 picks and having any of the other QBs later.

    also, I’d be ok with Young at 2nd or 3rd overall.
     
  23. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, the draft value chart is more a suggestion and it breaks down when you consider the value placed on QBs. I don't think the Bengals would budge from the #1 spot, but overpaying according to the chart might make them think it over. They'd end up with Tua/Young and an extra first rounder dropping down to pick #3.

    I mean, the Bengals seem like a badly run organization, so maybe?
     
  24. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Can't argue with that but like you said it is the bengals.
     

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