I just wanted to give you guys a better idea of what I'm seeing on this kid because of all the QBs in the 1st round area of this Draft, he probably has the most chance aside from Jake Locker of falling to where we might pick. I'll start by saying that he's a better prospect than Jake Locker. Let's go ahead and get that out of the way. There are legitimate reasons why he is up here. Surrounding Cast & Offense: I'm torn on this area because on the one hand you want your QB to elevate the level of play of the people around him, but on the other hand when everyone around a guy seems so talented, you start to wonder how much of it is him and how much of it is them. Joe Adams has legit 4.4 speed and looks to be a pretty good prospect down the road, and he's just a role player in that offense. Coby Hamilton is capable of dominating at times. D.J. Williams looks like the next Chris Cooley, and Greg Childs is a very, very good prospect. The offense also runs the ball extremely well, as all Bobby Petrino offenses generally do. The surrounding cast does help Mallett look better. Coby Hamilton takes a 20 yard in route against what should be a prevent defense with 3 seconds remaining in the half against LSU, the defense plays it AWFULLY, Coby breaks two tacklers who run into one another, Patrick Peterson takes a bad angle on the ball, and that goes down as a 70+ yard TD pass for Mallett. That's an example of what I'm talking about. Not a lot of 3rd & Longs for this offense with the way they run the ball. Throwing Skills: Arm strength, he has it. That hose of an arm of his can put the ball 40 yards on a rope with very little arc. The arm strength is legitimate. He has pro accuracy, but inconsistent. He will be aggressive with the ball and fit it into super tight spaces. Pocket Mechanics: His pocket mechanics are very sound and they help him play his best football from the pocket. His delivery is nothing special, it's over the top and looks how you coach it, but it's not particularly quick and it can look telegraphed and elongated at times. His fake and hand-off mechanics are not uniform but he does obviously work on them. They look a little awkward at times because of his foot and body control, but I'll get to that later. Offensive Command: He has absolute command and mastery of the playbook. He audibles, he makes protection calls at the line, he'll switch the side of the play depending on the defensive look, and he appears to have a good idea of what he is doing with the football before the play. However, his chemistry with receivers needs work. You will see him thinking back shoulder on certain routes where his receivers have no idea. Additionally, I'm not sensing a special hard count or the ability to draw the offense off sides with voice or head movement. There are some details missing from his game. Reading Defenses: Overall he's ok, especially pre-snap, as he can tell where he wants to go with the football before the snap. However, this can also be a problem because it means he's not truly reading the field after the snap and making his decisions accordingly. He'll use his eyes to go through his progressions knowing where he wants to go with the ball, and then he'll flick over and throw the ball before he's even bothered to look if the player is well covered or if there's a coverage he didn't anticipate. Timing & Anticipation: I have to give him a negative grade here. He's barely serviceable on his timing and anticipation of breaks. More often than not, he's throwing well after the receiver has made his break, and he can be slow through his progressions. Some analysts call this patience, but I don't think so. I think he recognizes things a little late, and at times he'll try and make up for it with his arm which ends up a bad idea. Ball Location: His ball location is really average. When he's got his feet, his ball location is a lot better than when he doesn't. Under Pressure: Big negative grade here. He consistently falls apart under pressure, taking unnecessary sacks, fumbling the ball, or making horrible decisions. I'm not sure I've seen one throwaway from him, and that's incredible. I don't want to make too big a deal of that because it should be easy to teach a guy to throw the ball away, but given concerns about his character and the fact that the throwaway is commonly considered the 'unselfish' play...it concerns me. He gets extremely chancy with the football under pressure. By my tallies, about a third of the time he'll throw the ball somewhere either not looking where he's throwing it, or it being a totally off throw that could very well be picked off, going in and out of the hands of defenders, etc. I've only ever seen him do something positive with the football on about one-third of his pressure situations. The rest of the time, he's taking sacks, or making awful throws/decisions. Part of the problem is his being awful at throwing the football on the move, due to bad foot and body coordination, lack of quick feet. There's no way around that. It's awkward for him, his accuracy breaks down, his decision-making breaks down, his vision breaks down, everything breaks down for him if you ask him to be on the move and make something happen. This is part of the reason his screen game is so bad (more on that in a second). Touch: Awful. He barely has any touch passing to his game. It's easy to decide to throw the ball with touch when you know you're throwing the vertical with zero cover and you need to let the receiver run under it. But, even then his shoulder aiming is poor. He has absolutely no sense of when and how to throw the ball with touch within the confines of the defense. The screen passing I saw from him has been very bad, maybe the worst I've seen this year. A big part of the screen pass failures are his inability to throw or think on the move, but another big part is because he has zero touch on the ball, and it's not even something he thinks about as being a tool in his tool box, to the point where he hesitates to throw the ball just because the clear dart throw is not available to him. Aside from the awful screen passing, there are up-and-down throws you'll need to make in the NFL to get the ball into places between the zones, and I have not seen a single one from him. Part of the problem is his late decision making and inability to read the field in a timely manner. He's often missed his window for the slower touch pass by the time he throws the ball. This problem has led to many interceptions or near-interceptions that I saw. On-Field Demeanor: Questionable. He doesn't always stay even-keeled and you can visibly see his frustration and blaming of receivers. He's not afraid to let everyone watching know that he thinks you screwed up, even if that's not the case. I saw him get a 15 yard penalty for punching a defender in the groin at the bottom of a pile after a sack. You can also see his receivers be frustrated with him as well. Combine this with his interview demeanor being questionable, some off-field character concerns, his chemistry and communication being off with his receivers at times, this goes down as a big question mark. I hear it called the 'Leaf' factor. It could also be called a 'Roethlisberger', or 'Jamarcus' factor. One of those three succeeded despite this. Teams will have to find out a lot about him in character checks and interviews. They might not like what they find. Feet: Bad. He has the ability to sometimes make a guy miss and come out, but otherwise he's a big target in the pocket, and he's not really escaping a lot of pressure. The feet are one of the over-arching issues that bleed into both his decision-making and effectiveness under pressure, as well as his screen game. Overall: He's not a guy I would take a chance on in the 1st round. The combination of slow field reading, the touch pass not even being something he thinks about as being in his arsenal, the selfish play when pressured in the pocket, the slow feet and inability to create and improvise, average accuracy and inconsistent ball location, potential for character flaws, all have me scared to make this guy my top investment in the Draft. I just wouldn't do it, because in my gut I feel he is not a pro. And I'm not going to bet against my gut, on the basis of physical potential, with a 1st round pick as the price tag. I will bet against my gut, based on physical potential...but only at a certain price. To me he's a taller version of Chad Henne, except with character concerns. He's not a guy that I can trust to execute, too physically awkward, too mentally unhinged. If he were available down well into the 2nd round, I would start to think about it, provided that was not my first or by far one of my most valuable picks in the Draft. His bust potential is high, so he's a luxury pick.
Thanks CK. Great stuff as always. I'm very curious to see Mallett against Ohio state on the biggest stage he's ever been on. As I haven't seen a ton of him, it should be interesting. I'm looking forward you Cam Newton scouting report.
Thanks for the writeup. If the Dolphins move on from Henne I am of the belief that they have to finally spend a 1st on a QB. The problem is, after Luck and Newton I'm not sure there is another one worthy of a 1st. Locker seems like too much of a wildcard, and I haven't liked what I've seen from Mallet and the reviews from people I respect such as yourself have been mainly negative. For me, it's time to put a premium on accuracy. The big arm great size are nice, but accuracy is what makes QBs great. It's why I loved Sam Bradford coming out and it's why he's having so much success already in the NFL. That's what makes me intrigued with Devlin. Once he got rolling in his last playoff game his accuracy was great. Admittedly though, that was the only game I've seen from him, so it's a small sample size. From the little bit I've seen of Foles I like him as well, but people seem to feel he might be staying in school I guess. Gabbert is a guy I really know nothing about, but he seems like a guy some are interested in as well.
Until I see and read more from people I respect, like CK, Boomer,, etc., it looks like it's Luck, Newton or bust in the 1st round.
But there are guys that I really like available in this draft. I really like Pat Devlin, I really like Ben Chappell, I really like T.J. Yates. These are guys that won't go in the same areas as Locker and Mallett but if you put the gun to my head and said to me "choose"...I'm taking the guys I really like over the guys I don't.
If you've got a guy that thinks quickly, can get himself out of trouble, has great presence of mind, and great accuracy, to go with a pro arm...you're cooking. The thing that separates Andrew Luck from the other guys I like, like Pat Devlin, Ben Chappell and T.J. Yates, is that the other guys don't have the knack and presence of mind for getting themselves out of trouble that Luck has. But they have the other things.
Very nice write up Chris. I think you were pretty well spot on. I don't trust him either, and I personally wouldn't want to sacrifice a 2nd or 3rd on him. IMO he's more hype than anything.
Hard for me to evaluate Chappell simply because his team was so bad. The couple of games I saw 9admittedly not full games) he didn't look like anything special. But that may simply be a function of inept teammates.
good write up ck. have to say i still have a few games to watch of mallett's that i recorded but havent watched but from the few from this year and my memories of last year he kind of reminded me of flacco coming out although thats a comparison based more on measurables then actually seeing flacco play when he was in college. mallett when he is on is impressive as hell but there is a huge inconsistency in his games that may very well be due to the flaws you have pointed out. I think the upside with the \guy is going to get him drafted in the first. I would be surprised if he slips to the 2nd just due to potential. somewhere around 15th seems about right to me btw greg childs is awesome
The whole offense around him is awesome. Joe Adams is a dynamic player, has 4.4 speed and can make a lot of plays, run with the ball, etc. The guy that keeps popping out and making huge plays down the field is Coby Hamilton, and then of course Greg Childs is awesome, and so is D.J. Williams. Then you've got quality OLs blocking for Knile Davis and a pretty awesome ground game, and Mallett has had a lot of luxuries even if it is the SEC he's facing. He reminds me more of Jamarcus Russell than Joe Flacco. Joe Flacco has the feet to get out of trouble.
flacco does have the feet. good points about the talent surrounding him. i always find it makes it easier to scout QBs when they have little talent around them, Matt Ryan, Cutler, etc. You can kind of gauge their ability to elevate or hinder the offense that way. not sure about the russell comparison since russell was horrible with his pocket presence in terms of knowing how many feet to drop back ( at least in Oakland, dont remember LSU) He caused the offensive line alot of sacks by getting the wrong depth on his dropbacks
Knile is quickly becoming one of my more favorite backs out there. Speaking of offenses: hopefully you'll have fun watching Clemson the next few years. Our 2011 skill guys have to be considered a knockout class. WR: #3,#5,#10 nationally per Scout.com. (Rivals has them as #2 & #3). RB: #2, #8. (Mike Bellamy is possibly a future Spiller or Chris Johnson) TE: #6.
I can't wait for the first scouting report on Stephen Rivers, 6'6 younger brother of Phillip Rivers. Going to LSU. #1 pick in 2014.
Not a huge fan of Mallett either. Has a lot of Chad Henne in his game. I do like him better than Henne however, and I feel Joe Flacco is a good comparison. However, much like Flacco, Mallett isn't a guy I feel who can really elevate his team. I do feel he can be good enough to get you deep into the playoffs with a good surrounding cast/defense. It's really a moot point for me though because he'll have the same exact outcome as Chad Henne with the people running this team.
I don't follow HS recruiting at all and was unaware that he even had a brother. But I just thought it was funny.
That stuff is meaningless. College recruiting is hard. You think scouting for the draft is tough? Imagine watching literally 500 HS kids, each of whom looks like a superstar on tape. We may never ehar from Stephen Rivers but I just found it interesting that he has a brother that young who is going to a big time school.
Nice work Chris. I see all the same things. 4 things stand out for me when I watch Mallett as I have on multiple occasions this season. 1. That as you say he has a remarkable cast. Joe Adams and DJ Williams are terrific but Greg Childs pre the injury was as good as anyone in the nation. Of all the very good WR's I saw this season, Childs, AJ Green, Ryan Broyles and Justin Blackmon were head and shoulders above the rest. 2. The most annoying thing in his game is his drop or lack thereof. His footwork is so lazy and so lackadaisical. It drives me insane. 3. When you have players as good as the aforementioned, you HAVE to be accuarate. I mean you have to be. These kids are open not just by half a yard but there are times when they're open by yards and he missed them. Take the Alabama game. They're stoning the Tide because of Mallett. But they lose the game because of him as well. Couldn't handle the pressure. Bama got to within 7, maybe 10 in the 4th Q and he was backed up with a 3rd and long towards his own endzone. OL gives him an age and he has Joe Adams WIDE OPEN running towards the right sideline. And I mean WIDE OPEN, probably by about 12 yards up around the 30. He missed him by miles. I mean miles. You just can't do that. And yet he does it again and again. 4. Mentioned there and Chris mentioned it but he can't handle pressure. Pressure of a big game down the stretch or pressure off the perimeter. If he's forced to move he's all over the place and when he's hit a couple of times and pressure comes again, mechanically he goes to pieces. He looks better if he gets out of the pocket running to the left than to the right but generally he's ungainly and struggles to wind up and throw on the move. I wouldn't touch Mallett in R1. I think he'd be a nightmare to coach.
Mallett has his flaws, but his flaws aren't as marked as Cam Newton's. Ryan is still a much better pro prospect than Cam Newton. Cam is the next overhyped athletic quarterback though.
So having said that would you draft Mallett in the first round or is that just an indictment of Newton?
Why did you feel the need to throw "black" in there? Your opinion is valid without adding racial overtones.
I didn't see a racial tone added into it. It's true. Some of the athletic talented black QBs do tend to get a little overly hyped up.
Because Tebow was white, there was a different set of people doin the hypin and a different set doin the hatin.
I agree his footwork and accuracy are problems but I see a slightly better version of Flacco there and real potential. I'd take him closer to the 23-28 range though then I would the 12-15 range. There is a lot he has to clean up but I still have him as the second best QB right now after Luck.
Shoot, Tim Tebow is a Gold Mine for the NFL with Favre retiring, now they have another Qb whose behavior is a bit outside of the norm who causes people to form strong opinions for or against him off of the bat. My issue with Newton is I see Charlie Ward in him, a good college Qb who had an outstanding season who really was not exposed to pro style passing concepts, sure they both won a Heisman Trophy, but can they play football in the NFL? As for the qb at hand, Mallet, to me I see some Ben Rothlesberger in his game, big guy who is not afraid to throw the ball downfield, can run a bit, but does not always make the best decisions with the football.
Exactly, what about Jake Locker? There are still people talking about him being a first round prospect for quarterback and he is a horrible quarterback. HORRIBLE!!!
Locker is terrible and should not be a first round pick. I see only two quarterbacks worthy of a first round pick at this point, Andrew Luck and Ryan Mallett.
Mallett to me is like a slower Joe Flacco, without Flacco's touch and ability to read defenses. I just would pass on him and go with a guy who is his same size but much more mobile: Cam Newton.
So, you would rather have a mobile guy that cannot read a defense at all over a true drop back passer that can read a defense but is prone to making the mistake throw at times?
IMO Mallett and Locker might end up in the 2nd round like Henne and Brohm. In the 2nd round, I'd rather have Locker..... but I'm not sure I'd want to trade up for him unless it only cost a 4th or 5th.
If I'm picking in that 15-20 range in the first round of the draft, then I wouldn't hesitate to take Ryan Mallett if I had question marks at QB. The issues he has with his footwork and decision making at times can be corrected. What you can't coach though is his size, his arm strength, and his pure drop back passing ability. He's clearly the #2 QB going into this draft and is a far better pro prospect than the overhyped Cam Newton.
I'm not quite as trusting as you regarding his decision making. I can understand decision making during a regular play, but when play's break down and he's forced into critical thinking and reacting, he scares me a little.
I wouldn't touch Locker till round 5 and that would be to try him out at runningback, wide receiver or safety.
I don't see ANYONE having Ryan Mallett as the #2 QB in the draft. Collapsing under pressure, missing open wideouts and a pick machine. Lest we not forget that Cam Newton has ripped apart the defenses that Ryan Mallett struggled against and lost to. Mallett's not even a classic drop back passer because he rarely takes more than a 1.5/2 step drop. He never goes past 3 steps.
Let's just lay our cards on the table and say what we're all thinking. Keith has, for whatever reason, some issues with race. A long history of being anti black QB's and some very questionable comments about them along the way. Suffice to say that if Ryan Mallett were black, then he wouldn't be #2 on Keith's board. #justsayin'
