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QBs for 2012: CK, Boomer and others

Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by Omaha, Oct 7, 2011.

  1. Omaha

    Omaha Season Ticket Holder

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    It appears that this will be a loaded class for QB prospects (if they all declare)

    I have heard Luck described as once in generation, next Peyton Manning type. But what about the others.

    Landry
    Griffin III
    Barkley
    others?

    I don't expect us to get the number one pick, but likely top 5 or 10 pick.
     
  2. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    This QB thing will probably continue to be a minor obsession of mine until the Dolphins have one. Luckily that means I'm in position to answer some of these question.

    I'll start short and then I'll go long. Short story short, I see (so far!!!) three elite talents at the quarterback position that I am 100% comfortable with taking and making my starting quarterback as early as 2012. They are Andrew Luck, Brandon Weeden and Matt Barkley. That doesn't mean all three of them will be high picks, Weeden is fighting CONSIDERABLE age and injury issues when it comes to his draft stock, but he also could be the Heisman winner by the end of the season, so we'll just have to see.

    Landry Jones is not in that group for one simple reason: I haven't done work on him yet this year. Call me lazy or whatever, I just haven't gotten round to it. I've watched him before and seen the accuracy to fit the ball into tight spaces, seen the good arm and athletic ability, but I've also seen a little bit of Kerry Collins-ish disappointment-in-the-moment out of him. We'll just have to see. I know he will garner a high grade from the rest of the league and I'm not trying to stake out any outrageous positions just to say I did. I'm just not quite THERE on him yet. We're like a third of the way into the college season, though.

    After those guys you have a group that in my opinion includes Ryan Lindley, Ryan Tannehill and Robert Griffin III. I'm not sure I'm ready to stcik Nick Foles in there, yet. We'll see. He's another one I have to do more work on but was uncomfortable with his body of work a year ago. Which order would I put the three R's? I'm not writing anything in pen but I think right now the order in which I listed them.

    After that...I'm not sure I've found another QB aside from Kellen Moore that I deem worthy of paying too much attention to. I know there are some people that love Kirk Cousins and I do see the Tony Romo-ish upside but I also see the Tony Romo-ish risky throwing issues along with some John Beck-ish jittery pocket presence issues, which juist doesn't work for me. I know Moore is not well liked by Alen and I respect his opinion. But I'll be damned if his information processing and decisiveness don't have me keep going back to him. We'll see.

    Back to the start, Andrew Luck is the real deal. I started pointing him out to people on November 9th, 2009 (his redshirt freshman year)...because I was in manlove. It's similar to how I started bragging about how Sam Bradford was going to be a future #1 overall during HIS redshirt freshman year, and sure enough about 30 months later he's the #1 overall pick. Well, 30 months after my early November proclamations of undying manlove, Andrew Luck is similarly going to get taken #1 overall. It's hard to point out what exactly draws an evaluator to him because it's hard to pick out an aspect of a QBs game where he's left wanting. I guess he's not quite as big, strong and athletic as Cam Newton? His deep ball isn't the best I've ever seen? Other than that, what stood out to me as early as 2009 was simple, the two most important aspects of quarterbacking...decision making (information processing) and accuracy. He's got the arm, he's got the big and strong body, he's got the intangibles, he has as much responsibility for making calls in that offense as any QB I have seen outside of a few pros, and he's even pretty damn athletic and flat out coordinated (see his sideline catch last weekend). The thing that makes Aaron Rodgers the best in the league right now is his combination of throwing, information processing, and athletic ability to escape pressure and make big plays. Andrew Luck is setting up to have all three of those things, maybe more. He gets compared to Peyton Manning, but it's more like Peyton Manning's head and arm, with Aaron Rodgers' legs and athletic coordination. Or just Aaron Rodgers. Sorry I keep saying Aaron Rodgers. I can't help it, I was also in manlove with Aaron Rodgers when he came out. Luck notches off so many things that people love to see, right down to his having grown up in a football family, which can be surprisingly important to some people. I guess the only drawback is that he and his dad know he's so good and has so much power over the NFL (to the point where multiple teams may actually make choices this year that are intended to lose football games), that he could always decide he doesn't like what he sees in Miami and pull an Eli Manning/John Elway. So unthinkable to people, I know...until it happens. So if we do get the #1 overall pick, Stephen Ross had better execute something IMPRESSIVE from a front office/coaching standpoint, because there's some wooing to be done. You get the sense that if he enters the Draft, and decides he doesn't want to be a Dolphin, and yet the Dolphins play hardball with him anyway...this is a guy that academically wouldn't mind continuing another year at Stanford and earning his Masters degree or something along those lines. He wouldn't be able to play for the Cardinal, true enough, but he values academics so much that he wouldn't view it as a nuclear bluff. He'd still go #1 overall in 2013.

    Matt Barkley is a guy that would look to my eeyes comfortable as the top billed QB in any Draft that doesn't contain Andrew Luck. He has the accuracy to fit the ball in tight spaces, the arm to make any throw, and his ball placement really stands out. What also stands out is from heel-to-fingertip mechanics on each throw, and how absolutely perfect and very, very quick they can be. He's like some combination of Mark Sanchez and Drew Brees. He's not going to run a lot, less than Andrew Luck. He doesn't really have the mentality for that, though I think he's got better athletic ability than he lets on. He's an excellent teammate and good leader. He exudes confidence. I don't see too much of the kid-ish stuff that bothered me about Sanchez. He actually does remind me a lot of Sanchez, which I have trouble with sometimes since I hated Sanchez coming out so much, but it's more the best of Sanchez that he has in common. He's got far better accuracy. If Sanchez had that kind of accuracy, I don't think even Dol-Fans could try and make fun of him or assert that he's overrated. His stature could be a problem for some teams, as he might come in a shade under 6'2" tall. His build is perfect for his weight, though. He's very solidly built. He throws with tremendous, almost too-early anticipation. The one thing you're really going to have to look at is his performance in the clutch and in various situations because consistently in his career, his throwing efficiency has taken a hit in the 4th quarter. That's also similar to Sanchez. But then, since 2010, Mark Sanchez is tied with Drew Brees (6) in being behind only Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman (7) in number of 4th quarter come-from-behind victories. Overall though I think I would compare Barkley as much to Brees as to Sanchez, or more.

    Brandon Weeden gets me because he's so ridiculously smooth and confident out there. I have no idea why he's thrown 6 interceptions this season. Sometimes he can be a little bit non-chalant about things, in his attitude...and so throwing 3 picks to University of Louisiana-Lafayette seems surprisingly, and a little disturbingly, in character. But make no mistake, he had a huge performance in the clutch against Texas A&M. He played baseball for like 7 years before deciding to hang it up to go to Oklahoma State, get his degree, and be the 3rd string quarterback on the team while he was at it. He seemed content with that, which is actually one of the more maddening things about him. But then the 2nd stringer got called to start a game against Colorado on national television, he sucked for the first half and almost led the Cowboys to embarrassment, and that's when Mike Gundy turned to Weeden in the second half. Weeden had a ridiculous half of football, led the comeback victory, and secured his role as starter the following year when Zac Robinson left. The learning curve I saw from the beginning of 2010 to the end was about the fastest I've ever seen, which made it unique because Cam Newton had just as ridiculously quick a learning curve that very year. I'm not the only one who thinks so. Dana Holgorsen was his offensive coordinator and he said the same thing, the progress Weeden made from first game to last was the most he'd ever seen, ever. Holgorsen brought an entirely new system to Oklahoma State in 2010, as Mike Gundy stepped back away from the offense, hired Holgorsen and let him do his thing. So that wasn't just Weeden's first year starting, it was the first year in Holgorsen's new offense. Then wouldn't you know it, Holgorsen goes off to West Virginia to be Head Coach in waiting, and then not waiting anymore, and so Brandon Weeden had to teach the offense to the new offensive coordinator. No joke. Even Mike Gundy never really learned the offense all the way through. Weeden had to teach it to the new coach. As such he's got more ownership of the offense I think than your average QB prospect. When it gets down to it, he's a god-gifted football thrower. He was drafted by the Yankees in the 2nd round straight out of High School because he threw a 97 mph fast ball. His receivers joke that the ball comes into their hands so hot that it does another revolution even after it hits their hands. He's really ACCURATE, at all levels, and he regularly throws the ball 25 to 35 yards thru the air. That 74% completion isn't just becauee of the system. There are guys I see with high completion percentages that only throw the ball around 18 to 22 yards thru the air on average, this guy regularly throws 30 yards thru the air and hits it with zero problems. If his completion percentage is inflated by anything it's just that he has a lot of open windows to throw to in that offense with those receivers. But what really stands out about him, is I go back to what I initially said, and that's what a cool customer he is on the field. He's so confident in his arm, and his ability to scan the field and find the open man, that he has tremendous pocket poise. He shows the awareness to keep his feet moving and buy just enough time to get the ball off, and if you give him time, he's going to take it, and he's going to find someone. Seems like that's something you'd see out of a lot of QBs but surprisingly it isn't. A lot of guys get antsy in the pocket and defeat themselves. He doesn't do that, and yet he shows great awareness of the rushers around him. He's getting sacked about twice as often as he did last year, but a lot of that was Texas A&M's defense...and even so, once every 32 pass attempts? I'll take that! I think he makes LT Levy Adcock look a little better than he really is, just my opinion. If there's something maddening about Weeden aside from the age (28) and injury history in baseball which caused him to hang it up, it's just that he's a little TOO cool. This is the guy that Gundy kept 3rd string because in practices he never got the sense that the guy "wanted it" as bad as everyone else. People close to Weeden claim that's just because he's so mature, he doesn't overreact to negatives. But you have to wonder why he stayed in school another year when he had just finished his degree and was already 27 years old. He's close with Justin Blackmon and Mike Gundy somehow convinced them both to stay. Maybe they figured another year in college will have done Weeden more good than a year in the pros. We'll see, a lot depends on where he ends up going in this Draft. That's a BIG question mark because you just have zero idea how these scouts/teams will treat the age/injury thing.

    I've done a lot of work on Ryan Lindley and I'm just disappointed in how he played against Michigan. Not all of it was due to his clearly inferior surrounding cast. I think the game got a little big for him, which is concerning. Infamously, his completion percentage is low. I think much like some of these guys' completion percentages are artificially inflated, his is a little artificially deflated. He plays in a play-action based passing system with guys that have almost no experience. He's trying to throw them open, he's trying to hit them where he thinks they should be, and the receivers just aren't with him. He's also not throwing very many (if any) of those little bubble screens and quick hitters that inflate everyone's completion percentages. It's a running offense and Ronnie Hillman gains a lot of yards, and so they rely on Lindley to mix it up with deep passes. Problem is, he's throwing to two converted cornerbacks and a white walk-on that entered the year with 4 NCAA catches on his resume. He lost two starters to the NFL this year, and why they didn't have ANYONE backing those guys up...I'll never know. Either way he's got a little bit of a deliberate motion which could use sharpening, but I don't think accuracy is the issue that everyone else thinks. He's kind of streaky. He's got a huge arm and he's a play maker. He runs that offense, and makes calls in the ground game on every play that are a big part of Ronnie Hillman's Heisman-like numbers. He kind of failed his test against Michigan, so we'll see how he regroups against TCU and Boise State. I still like him a lot. He's a smart guy, scored in the mid 30's the last time he took a wonderlic. He seems like a very no-nonsense, serious individual that knows all the right things to say and is pretty polished. He's guided that program to pretty incredible heights, considering the history of it and the talent.

    Ryan Tannehill has a ton of talent and looks like a quarterback. He's an athlete, led his team in catches a few years ago when they asked him to play wide receiver. He's a holder on special teams. He's extremely smart, I believe he's got like a 3.7 GPA in one of those egghead-ish areas of concentration, not like 'sports management' or anything like that. Considering how relatively inexperienced he was at the position last year, for him to be making some of the throws he made was pretty ridiculous. I think he's in an offense that protects him a little bit. He's a project. Not ready for the big show in 2012 but if you brush him up, he's got the talent and intangibles to play the position for a long time.

    And then you have Mr. Excitement, Robert Griffin III. Rather than go on and say the same things, I'll just refer you to what I've written about him previously.

    http://www.thephins.com/forums/show...nger-Appears&p=1599502&viewfull=1#post1599502

     
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  3. schmolioot

    schmolioot Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Thank you CK. As always, fantastic work.

    I'm too wrapped up in Suck for Luck right now to even focus on these other guys, but as we get closer to the end of this thing and we really see where we're at I'll take a closer look.

    On Landry Jones, who I actually have seen probably ten times over the last few years, I really like him. Very accurate, stands tall in the pocket. Didn;t play spectacular against fSU but made every throw when it counted. If we're picking in the 5-6 range I have no issues whatsoever with Jones.

    But until we're eliminated from that #1 pick, I have eyes for only one QB.
     
  4. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    One guy who is going under the radar is Russel Wilson, he is a bit short, but I've liked his game for a couple of yrs now.
     
  5. Laces Out

    Laces Out Well-Known Member

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    After watching Russell Wilson destroy Nebraska, I would have to say that he is 100% legit despite size issues.
     
  6. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    I feel like were going QB no matter what. I feel were picking in the top 3 hopefuly 1 but were definitely going to take a QB.
     
  7. alen1

    alen1 New Member

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    He's a quarterback of an Air Raid offense. That's how they all are. I'm not really knocking him for that, it just seems like they all take on the personality of their head coaches - which is often self destructive - in that system.
     
  8. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    This yr there is such a ridiculously deep Qb draft class that in most drafts Wilson and say Tanneyhill and imo Weedon, guys who would be 2nd or 3rd round picks are going to slide a bit just do to the quality at the top of the Qb Class, literally we could see 4 Qb's go in rd #1

    Just a half glance:

    Andrew Luck
    Landry Jones'
    Rob Griffen III
    Matt Barkley

    All first rd picks imo, add in the lesser guys:

    Nick Foles
    Ryan Lindley
    Kellen Moore
    Kirk Cousins
    Russel Wilson

    I'm not a fan of Cousins or Foles, some do like them.

    But the way the draft works, is no one will trade up for these second tier guys, they will fill other needs early in the draft, pushing them back, but they are solid prospects.
     
  9. NorFlaFin

    NorFlaFin Active Member

    I serioulyh doubt Russel Wilson plays profootball. Hes in the the Rockies farm system 2b
     
  10. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Luck played very well today..He rolled left, he rolled right, he put velocity on it, his eyes as he watches the defense are excellent, {rothlesberger awareness} he makes it totally catchable for receivers.... and looked good doing it.... great body.

    Weeden cracks me up, they guy is so calm in the pocket, it looks as though he's not being challenged, his feet actually become still before he releases, I love that, it's brady like.
     
  11. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Omaha.....Chris has done my job for me. I have a different opinion tho, so here in shortform is me;

    Luck is one of the 3 best QB's I've ever seen at the college level WITH PRO POTENTIAL. In terms of COLLEGE QB's - and there's a BIG difference - Charlie Ward and Tommie Frazier are right up there. But Luck, Aikman and Peyton, along with Vinny Testeverde are the best pro QB's I've seen in 27 years of following the draft. He has everything. I remember a game last year against Arizona when he fell almost to his knees and threw deep about 60 yards and hit his receiver in stride. It was one of the greatest throws of all time.

    Landry Jones is a fine fall back. He's tough, he's been coached hard. I know Tom Wort has told me how focused and prepared he is. He gives some trash back to Travis Lewis who is a monument of trash talk. I like the arm, the way he stands tall in the pocket and I think he's a notch below Sam Bradford.

    Weeden is a great player. System player for sure and he won't suit all tastes, but man alive he has the arm, the accuracy and the timing. And it's not all because of Blackmon either. If you think a vastly inferior NFL prospect in Chris Weinke went 102nd at the same age, Weeden has to be value in rounds 2/3. If he was younger and had no shoulder history, he's a top 10 pick.

    RG3 is fascinating. Why? 2 things stand out over and over and over again; accuracy and mistake free football. He NEVER makes mistakes. He runs when he HAS to but plays QB first. His down the field accuracy is scary. As scary good as ANY QB I've ever watched at ANY level. Anyone disagrees, rewind and see what he did to TCU down the field. Now he's small, probably 6'0 but he's very intelligent and has remarkable athletic ability. Ifhe comes out andtrains on then he's a top 15 pick.

    Matt Barkley. I haven't done enough work on him this season. I have 3 USC games on the machine but not watched any. He has a lot of ability, pro style offense, playing on a fairly talent free team. Immediate concern is late game meltdown - QB rating in the 4th quarter is bad.

    I would like to make one further mention about 2 players; I understand Nick Foles' limitations but I really like him. I also think Ryan Tannehill CONSISTENTLY delivers the ball late. Game after game he does it.
     
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  12. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    Boomer, this is purely a hypothetical but how would you feel if we had the #1 pick and traded back to say the 6 to 10 spot for (3) 1sts, (2) 2nds, and 3rd...... and then took Weeden in the 3rd? A poor team giving up that many picks might be drafting in the top 5 the next few years while Luck develops.

    How would you feel about 1. Blackmon (or Jeffery). 2. Dwayne Allen. 2b. RT (maybe Andrew Datko). 3a. Weeden. 3b. SS 4. Guard/RB

    Then in 2013 focus both 1sts & 2nds on defense.
    2014--- Sammy Watkins. :shifty:
     
  13. BigDogsHunt

    BigDogsHunt Enough talk...prove it!

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    I tried it in Madden12 and the game laughed at me as and said are you crazy thinking you could get that??
     
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  14. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I can see why the UD folks like Brandon Weeden, what an easy throwing motion and quick release, the ball just comes up and is out of his hand effortlessly throw after throw.
     
  15. ToddsPhins

    ToddsPhins Banned

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    You're 44 playing Madden? :chuckle:





































    nevermind. I'll probably be 44 playing Madden, too. lol.
     
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  16. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Agree on Weeden, FSU of Weinke's era had NFL talent all over the field, not sure if the same is true of OSU.

    Weeded has a nice release, pocket presence, and can make all of the throws, Weinke had a pop gun arm, little field presence and little athleticism.

    Vinny Testaverde wound up with a 18 yr NFL career, so one was not to offbase in liking him Boom, Tampa was just so dreadful under Perkins that he never had much of a chance to excel there.


    Interestingly enough, Perkins first draft in Tampa, he took Paul Gruber a LT, Parcell's first draft in Miami, they take...
     
  17. Frumundah Finnatic

    Frumundah Finnatic U Mad Miami?

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    Where have you been?
     
  18. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I'd kill myself but only after killing everyone involved. You get a once in a generation opportunity to draft an Andrew Luck.

    Don't balls it up.
     
  19. Boomer

    Boomer Premium Member Luxury Box

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    All over.

    Where have YOU been?
     
  20. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I think Robert Griffin's accuracy is the best part of his game. The decision making isn't as bullet proof as it's made out to be though. He throws a couple each game that could be picked off. He threw a pick in this last game but he should have thrown two, there was another that went in and out of the DB's hands.

    The thing is, he's a very smart guy from all reports. People meet him and they're impressed. He's a leader. He's a worker. He's got all the intangibles. But all that means to ME, is that about 7 years down the road if he survives the NFL (which is a big question mark at his size and playing style) then sheer repetitions could start to see his throwing mechanics, talent and decision-making starting to match his intelligence level, a la Ryan Fitzpatrick.

    But do I want to be the team that waits for him to get there? Not really.

    He's so small that if he tries to run in the NFL like he does in college, he's going to get killed like Pat White did. I watch RG3 in these college games and in every single one I'm just amazed that this guy looks like he's taking a physical beating, in every game...which could be the reason he keeps fading in the 4th quarter. I think the height affects his vision from the pocket. He wants to get out of the pocket, you can see it in his game. Is he seeing the middle of the field well? Everything he does seems to be guided pre-snap, and they keep getting the ball to the perimeter where the reads are a little simpler. When he has to sit in the pocket and read the field it seems to me he has more trouble with that. His release and mechanics seem real slow to me.

    I just look at him and see a guy that's not going to translate to the NFL for quite a while. As long as he has the accuracy and the intangibles, there's hope that he'll continue to develop and develop and develop...but I'm not looking for a guy I've got to put on a 5 year plan. I'm looking for a guy I can get that will help me by Year 2...maybe even Year 1.
     
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  21. Omaha

    Omaha Season Ticket Holder

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    so clearly if we are #1 pick it's Luck no question.
    I doubt we will be so "luck"y to have the #1 pick
    but it appears likely we will be top 5.

    so if we pick #2 who do you take?
     
  22. mroz

    mroz Fix the OL Club Member

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    Seen him play a couple times this year and come away thinking.... blah... Cant put my finger on it...
     
  23. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Barkley's looked very good lately. He continues to progress, he's Jim Kelly to Elway's Luck.
     
  24. Nappy Roots

    Nappy Roots Well-Known Member

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    Could be the guys gray hair and walker
     
  25. mroz

    mroz Fix the OL Club Member

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    LOL, I guess... I just see this fantastic QB everyone else see... but then again what the hell do I know?
     

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