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Question About Buying a Car

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Mar 2, 2020.

  1. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    You're falling into sunk-cost fallacy with Tunsil and Minkah trying to equate them to new picks or demanding direct replacements with essentially equivalent players.

    If Tua is a bust, it really doesn't mean anything but trying again in a few years the same way have been doing since Dan retired.
     
  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    No, I don't expect them to be on Tunsil's level and I'm not the type that will waste time with direct comparisons. However, we did give up two solid starters and traded/cut a dozen or so other important names, so to me the goal would be to rebuild the roster with as many starters as possible. You can't do that efficiently if you're moving up in the draft.

    This goes back to my comments last year though about completely gutting the roster- our coaches/coordinators need to be judged on their entire body of work. Our roster sucks because they intentionally made it suck, so I'm looking for them to intentionally fix it thru the draft and free agency without landing us right back into cap-hell.
     
  3. danmarino

    danmarino Yuuuuge Member Club Member

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    Those extra picks are not players. They are leverage to allow the Dolphins to draft the player(s) they want. The Dolphins didn't acquire 14 drafts picks in order to draft 14 players.

    The Dolphins "gutted" players that won this team 7 games. They ended up winning 5 after the purge.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2020
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  4. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    What are you talking about... The team only won 5 games total all season. 5 games after the purge?
     
  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    2018 - 7 wins

    Off-season purge

    2019 - 5 wins

    So all those big names cost us 2 wins?
     
  6. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    You cannot look at it that way....LOL

    Just purging Minkah Tunsil and what's his name to Dallas..

    So many other moving parts to a roster... NFL rosters are so massive.
     
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    We just have different philosophies in terms of what those picks represent, which is fine.

    It sort of reminds me of a friend I used to gamble with often. We'd go to the casino and I'd sit down with $50 at the blackjack table, win a few hands and then walk away with $100 total...this drove my friend nuts because sometimes I was done gambling after 2-3 total hands. On the other hand, he'd win $50 or $100 and say, "I might as well keep betting since it's the house's money." That drove me nuts because I'd tell him, "No, that's your money!"

    It's just two different philosophies and we never could agree- yet in the long run, I rarely lost money because I was so conservative and played to double my money each time. My friend, on the other hand, had several huge $500+ wins...yet he also had several $200-500 losses as well at times. So while I can see your point that Tua could be a jackpot, hopefully you can see mine that three likely starters from 3 first round picks also has a lot of appeal. I'll take the safer, more calculated bet every time to avoid ever completely going bust.
     
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2020
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  8. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    That strategy may work great for a random dude playing some poker, but you likely aren't winning a poker tournament that way. At some point you call your shot and go all in. With the fifth pick, and lots of other ammunition, we are ready to do that now.
     
  9. flounder97

    flounder97 Active Member

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    Sit at 5 and let the chips fall where they may...sometimes overthinking is the worse case scenario
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    In every draft there are "safer" players...the Tunsil's and Minkah's were very easy selections because they slid and had much higher draft grades than everyone else available. That's not to say one of them couldn't bust, but by my logic someone will try to jump ahead of us for a QB and one of the top 3-4 overall players will possibly slide to us. Personally, I don't care if it's the CB, the LB or the OT...that would be my pick since it's good value and generally safe. Or even better yet, trade back to someone else that's in love with one of those guys and gain even more value.

    Again, having the picks doesn't mean we need to use them to trade up...to me that's irresponsible unless it's someone so close to can't-miss that the "gamble" is limited. I personally don't see that in Tua unless we get him naturally at #5. He's worth one pick to me, but definitely not 3 of them.
     
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  11. Triggercut

    Triggercut Well-Known Member

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    Stay cool, don't get banned here also.


    [​IMG]
     
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  12. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I don't think we "need" to use them to trade up, but if the front office feels Tua is worth the gamble, then we should take it. I have 0 interest in CBs or LBs at 5 or above. Those players are ... nice, but they aren't game-changers or culture builders imo, especially when we are devoid of realistic QB talent. I know you disagree about Rosen.
     
  13. danmarino

    danmarino Yuuuuge Member Club Member

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    Your post makes no sense whatsoever.

    In 2018, the Dolphins won 7 games.

    In 2019, they parted ways with about 5-6 1st team starting players, and I can't even remember the actual number of the rest. It wasn't just Minkah, Tunsil, and some guy to Dallas.

    However, Minkah, Drake, RT, Tunsil, Stills and those others, accounted for 2 more wins.

    Now, do I think that a couple of those guys would have been able to play better under Flores? Sure. However, I also know that a couple of those guys were getting paid more than they were worth, or about to be paid more than they were worth, and Minkah was a whiny *****.

    The idea, in the NFL, is to create a team with no one being paid more than they are worth. That's how the Pats won Super Bowls (if you take away the cheating). That's how Seattle was making it to, and winning, SB's. That's how the Eagles won the SB. All those teams had good to great players on team friendly contracts. Young players still on their rookie contract (ex. Wilson) or players willing to give the team a discount (ex. Brady)
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2020
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I don't see any other way of looking at it. Didn't every win in 2019 occur after we had traded everybody? So, literally, all those players only gained us 2 extra wins as comparing 2018 to 2019.
     
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  15. ripper1961

    ripper1961 Active Member

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    No not necessarily. If history is a lesson though odds are against Tua.
     
  16. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

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    Right, but if you pass on the Ferrari you have plenty of other elite options that will perform at a high level to choose from. Your analogy would make more sense if you laid out 3 top sports cars and said every other automobile you have to choose from is a Reliant K-car or at best a Hyundai. Even then it's not a perfect analogy because the Reliant or Hyundai could get the job done. A lousy QB can't.
     
  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Here's the counter though- we had 7 wins in 2018 with a backup QB for most of the season. Tannehill's prior season where he was healthy most of the way thru (w/ Moore as the backup) was 9 wins and a playoff berth. This year, both Tannehill and Moore (as the backup, although an undefeated one in 2019) competed against each other for the AFC championship. Both were top-10 QB's last season as starters!

    Drake, Tunsil and Minkah all had solid years as well, which tells me that we didn't win 7 the year prior because the talent wasn't at the right level. If we had kept everyone with Flores, I have a feeling that we would have been a 9 or 10 win team in 2019. cBrad will love hearing me say this, the problem in 2018 was largely due to coaching and injury.

    It was a good decision to part ways with Gase....but the verdict is still out on the GM role since our former players THRIVED elsewhere.
     
  18. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    There was something wrong with the culture and it wouldn't have gotten fixed if they didn't clean house.
     
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  19. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Don't buy a car. Buy a truck. Thats my advice. Then maybe after the truck is payed off and you're a little older and more settled and can afford the insurance, go splurge on the fancy sports car, just don't buy a Corvette, the poster car for Viagra.
     
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  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    LOL, that made me laugh. I'm honestly thinking about buying a late 70's Corvette now. You can get them fully restored in the 12-15k range, drive it for 3 years, then sell it for 14-17k in 2023. There's virtually nothing else on the classic market that's actually appreciating in that price range these days.
     
  21. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    You would be much better off with a 2000 or newer. Stay far the eff away from anything fuel injected before those eras. 2010 and newer Vettes are pretty bad *** machines. I think If I go that way I'll have to go full tilt Old Dude and get the Cadillac version. That way it's not really a Vette, just a bad *** Cadillac.

    But brah, the 70's Vette??? You cruising the retirement homes and the 55+ trailer parks trying to get lucky or what? I mean sure you'll be the coolest OG screeching up to the Casino Valet parking just in time to make the last serving of the early bird special buffet. But think of the children! Never mind, don't think of the children, that's even more creepy.

    And just about any Chevy GM muscle car from that era, late 60's-75 ish has been appreciating since about 2005 ish when Ford beat the market with the new Mustangs. Chevy Novas and Impalas are selling for big $$$ for crying out loud.
     
  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I've written sales content for a CA classic car franchise for about a decade now- I'd be buying off of upcoming trends alone. For example, three years ago I should have bought a 50's Dodge or Chevy pickup, restored it, and enjoyed it for a few years. In 2017 you could have one all day long for $20k...they're closer to $50k today. Heck, anything 1950's to 1970's in pickups is really hot right now! The mid to late 70's Corvettes are going thru that same cycle and appreciating by $2-4k per year, so it's a toy and an investment all in one.

    If you like the Chevy/GM stuff, now is a good time to buy anything 1973-75 since that's when the NAFTA stuff kicked in...those are still dirt cheap as well and finally starting to appreciate some.

    I've always liked the old Stingrays though so I'm going to find one with a clean body/frame and basically nothing else for around $5k, then build a modern fuel injected sports car out of it with digital dash, new interior, new paint, etc....or I'll grab one completely original in the $12-15 range (I'd prefer to build it myself tho so it's my car). I'll have around $15k in it and sell it for $25k in a few years, plus the wife and I will get a few beach trips out of it. It's mainly about the investment more than anything.

    And PS, I showed my 18 year old daughter a '78 Vette I was thinking about buying and she hasn't shut up about it since....she thought it was the most beautiful car she'd ever seen.

    Edit- that's kinda funny. My fully on-topic thread about buying a car suddenly took the off-topic twist about actually buying a car, LOL. =)
     
    Last edited: Mar 6, 2020
  23. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    I have worked in the classic car industry for close to 30 years... I used to travel to southern California to buy at the Pomona swap meets to take rust free classics to the northeast.
     
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  24. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You are comparing two seasons where we played entirely different schedules and other teams rosters were different as well.

    You realize the comparison is illogical at its foundation correct?

    Also most of us predicted 5 wins if Fitz started AFTER the turnover of the roster. Winning 5 games was not a surprise to anyone who knows football, and the games we won except NE were all games we had an advantage in.
     
  25. danmarino

    danmarino Yuuuuge Member Club Member

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    I'm not sure what you're getting at or if you even know what you're trying to say.

    The players that were let go won 7 ****ing games the year prior. 7....Then, when they were all gone the team won 5.

    And I get that hindsight is 20/20, but don't lie. NO ONE, not even Vegas, had this team winning 5 games. Nearly every person who knows anything about football thought the Dolphins were going to be the worst team in the league and be the owners of the 1st pick in the 2020 draft. Now, of course there are fans who thought the Dolphins were going to the SB at the beginning of the season, but for those of us who know anything about football, it was a shock that they won 5.

    And to claim that the Dolphins had some sort of an advantage in the games they won is maybe the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
     
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  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I've honestly thought about doing that in the SE. For instance, I'll see a mid 60's Chevelle SS bring $35-40k around here when you could grab it on the West Coast for $25-28k. Mid to late 60's Mustangs will bring mid-upper $20's here where they'd be in the teens out West. There's a lot of money to be made just hauling cars cross country....and I'd definitely buy them one at a time after a one-way flight!
     
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  27. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    I would go west buy two cars drive one and towbar the other... sell them in the east... Did it as a second job for extra cash for years.
     
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  28. danmarino

    danmarino Yuuuuge Member Club Member

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    I've owned a '67 Firebird
    '54 Caddy
    '74 Monte Carlo
    '87 Bronco
    '89 Bronco
    And currently, I own a 1990 Centurion C150, i.e. 4-door Bronco

    upload_2020-3-6_14-15-1.png
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's awesome, I've thought about doing that for years and almost went last summer for a '15 Quattroporte I could have had at a steal. The owner was moving to the UAE and wanted to sell it immediately for cash...I ended up letting the dealership's owner make $30k on it since I hesitated. I've been mad over that one for a whole year now, LOL.
     
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  30. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    I actually meant the truck analogy to go with the original premise of the thread. We don't need a sports car right now. Sports cars are for the guys selling the shiny new building. We need the guys driving the pick up trucks and the cargo vans first. Got to lay some iron and some concrete down before we get to chrome and glass.

    Gimme a Wilfs 250, a Toyota Thuney, A Dodge Cushenberry Diesel , and a Chevy Badazz over any Ferarri out there and I'll build some ****!
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
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  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's so tough because we just about need everything- our WRs are the only group that anyone could say is ready to roll. I've always preached to build from the trenches out and I still believe that 100%...but I've never seen a team that needs a QB, RB, DE, LB, CB and darn near every other position. It will be very interesting to say the least since we'll learn a lot about this organization.

    For instance, CB Needham....he came on fairly strong down the stretch. But is he good enough to be a 3-down starter? We really don't know since we had no pass rush, no defined secondary, etc. There's so many that could still surprise us and I'm guessing several that we were fooled by. I just want the darn draft to start already!
     
  32. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Free agency first. Will be interesting to see which positions and players we target and if we actually get those players. Should give us a better idea of our draft strategy.

    Also, I don't think our WR corps is as set as first glance. Parker finally broke out, but can he maintain? Preston gave a good half year, but will he return at the same level and stay healthy? Albert is likely a cut, Grant is a specialty/novelty guy...
    Its a better position than most, but not good enough to pass on a value play.
     
  33. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree- if one of the better WR prospects drops to us in the 4th-6th round, I definitely think we should take them. It just can't be a priority unless it's a true BPA situation. Or maybe we just pick thru the undrafted folks like last year and find another gem.

    Free agency scares me though because I don't want to see them hand out any big contracts on veteran players. We should be looking for above average guys on their 1st or 2nd contract...I DO NOT want to make any big splashes with premiere names (especially at QB). So hopefully they're smart about it and avoid a huge deal with any one player.
     
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  34. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont mind paying a lot to a guy if it is fair value and his position is one where the impact warrants the money we fork over. Also they have to be someone who will continue to work.

    For example, I'll pay an OT, C or Edge Rusher fair top market value if they are among the best at their position and wont slack off.
     
  35. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Depends on the position - I wouldn't mind grabbing some premium talent on the OL or pass rushers. Maaaaaaaybe CB, though Im not entirely sold on Jones or Bradberry.

    Definitely some good WR mid/late round pickups in the draft, though I think it may be worth considering if Jeudy, Lamb or Ruggs manages to get to our 18th - unlikely, but it would mean there was a run on something like OL or edge players. In a few mock draft sims I am seeing the top 5 tackles (big 4 plus Jones) going before 18.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2020
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