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Question and Carey Trade Scenario

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Panther7, Feb 14, 2009.

  1. Panther7

    Panther7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Trade Scenario:

    I don't believe Carey is worth the money he will probably be asking for, which is why he isn't signed as of yet. He obviously is worth a lot to the Dolphins, but probably not more than 6mil/year.

    The problem is that there are many tackles coming out in the draft this year that lessens Carey's trade value to other teams. However, there is one team that will almost have to sign Carey or Gross ........ Da Bears.

    John Tait may be retiring (PFT report citing Chicago-Sun Times). That leaves them with only one tackle on their roster - Chris Williams (their 2008 1st rd pick). They have to get a veteran tackle.

    If Carey refuses to sign a reasonable contract, franchise him, but accept a 1st (Bears have #18) or maybe 2nd and 3rd, or this year's 2nd and next year's 2nd. We can't just let Carey walk and get nothing for him. We've got to sign him or trade him.

    Question - How do you get a draft pick(s) for your own free agent other than tagging him? I would love to franchise Carey without having to pay him the one year deal. My fear is that we tag him and he signs the tender b4 we trade him. He is not worth $9-10 mil for one season. However, he does have trade value.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2009
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  2. anlgp

    anlgp ↑ ↑ ↓ ↓ ← → ← → B A

    Carey is a UFA. He can sign with whoever he wants. If we don't tag him he is free to go.
     
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  3. finsbuck719

    finsbuck719 New Member

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    why all the Carey bashing? he had a hell of a season last year, and this year wasn't great, but by no means was it bad. i mean you have to give the guy a little bit of a break. wasn't he asked to put on like 30 LBS this season?
     
  4. Panther7

    Panther7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'm not bashing Carey. I just don't think he is worth paying the average salary of the top 5 left tackles. He is maybe a slightly above left tackle and an excellent right tackle, but not even a top 5 right tackle. I think we are better off with him, but at the right price. He wants too much money, let's take the draft picks and run.

    My point is, we just can't let him walk and not get anything for him. We can't leak another hole and have no draft pick to possibly replace him.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2009
  5. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    you mean Chris Williams the OT from Vanderbilt... not Chris Samuels :)
     
  6. unifiedtheory

    unifiedtheory Sub Pending Luxury Box

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    Why on Earth would we let a very good right tackle go in free agency when it is only a cash issue? We have a TON of cap room and you don't get a prize at the end of the year for having the most cap room.

    No one is going to give us what you are discussing for Vern (a 1st or multiple 2nd's). Besides, what are going to do with those picks? Draft to fill a hole we are creating ourselves? That strategy only works if we use another premium draft pick on another rookie tackle. and on top of that we have to PRAY we hit the jackpot AGAIN with a rookie tackle coming in and being able to start 16 games. Creating holes so you can burn draft picks to fill them 2 months later is very Randy Muelleresc (see Jones, Donnie).

    Why are we using a high pick on a tackle, a position that we currently have manned by a very good player instead of trying to fill one of many needs (outside linebacker, middle linebacker, free safety, nose tackle, corner, receiver)? Are we doing it because we don't want to overpay Vernon for a year?

    We'd also have to throw a rookie in at right tackle where we already have a revolving door at right guard. I don't know about anyone else but having a rookie right tackle and an unknown at right guard scares the **** out of me.

    The worst case scenario in my opinion is we tag Vernon, he plays for the one year deal and we use one or two LATER draft picks on tackles we can hopefully groom over the next 2 training camps that can start. Best case is we tag him to play it safe and we negotiate a long term extension.

    Getting rid of a known commodity so we can venture into the unknown just because of money is not a way to run an organization. Teams that are tight against the cap do that.
     
  7. unifiedtheory

    unifiedtheory Sub Pending Luxury Box

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    No one knows what he is asking for, terms have not been discussed. Franchising him protects us as an organization. Paying him $9 million for one season is not cap crippling by any means.
     
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  8. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    I don't know, but the Cardinals got a nice gift this season?? LOL

    Seriously, I agree with you. Creating another hole to fill where we don't have one right now doesn't make too much sense. The price of tagging Carey, if a deal can't be worked out ($8.45M), is probably cheaper than what we would pay him in a contract (not cap cheaper, but overall cheaper), then you go into the draft and if the cards fall right and you can pickup a RT, fine you work a trade for Carey then, after the draft and likely you'd get a better asking price for him then. if a good enough deal isn't workable, you insert Carey at RG, the rookie at RT and move on...until next year. BTW, Carey's best position along the line is RG anyway...
     
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  9. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    What kills me is that if we pickup another High-end RT in the draft, we will end up paying him close to what Carey is asking for in the first place.

    Just pay the man his dues. He has been nothing but QUALITY since they drafted him. He played out of position his entire Dolphins career till his last year, he has kept his mouth shut, worked his *** off and been an all around great guy.

    I garuantee you, the thought of losing Carey is NOT sitting well with Tuna or T-Spans....not something they want to have to replace.
     
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  10. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Quite the contrary: It's a very sensible way of running an organisation. This FO has made it pretty clear that it has a value assigned to their FAs and isn't going to pay considerably more than the player is worth in their opinion. Right now, it looks like Carey's agent is looking for more money than the team is prepared to pay. It's not particularly sensible to pay a guy three million dollars more a year if you don't think he's actually worth those millions. You let him walk. Now, if that's going to be the case with Carey, we shall see. But yes, not overpaying for your FAs is the most sensible way of managing the cap in the modern era. It's the teams that are willing to let their guys walk if the price tag is too high for their tastes that are having longterm success, not the ones overpaying.
     
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  11. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    Dude, no matter whom you draft at #25, he's not even making a third of the money Carey will be asking for. Last year, Mike Jenkins got a five year, ten million deal. Carey's will be at least in the 30 million range. And even if you're going to trade up to, say, #14 and draft a high profile RT who happened to slide a bit, you're looking at around a 15 million contract. Whomever you draft if you decide to let Carey walk will not even be half as expensive as Carey would be.
     
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  12. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Vend, you're right about not paying more for than the value they have put on a certain player. That doesn't make fiscal sense. But are you thinking that they have Carey's value at the $3-$4M range ?? That would be the "three million dollars more a year" you spoke of (He's currently at $3.9M)...The price for an experienced and versatile OL...a guy that can play your L or RT spots if needed and is arguable best at the RG spot will command at least in the $7 -$8M a year range. That figure would put him in the top 15 paid OL. The cost of tagging him would be a little higher ($8.45M), but not totally unreasonable if a deal can't be worked out and then you go into the draft with the thoughts of getting your RT and worst case scenario, if you can't work a deal, you play him at RG and you have the makings of a very, very good OL...(assuming you get someone decent at the RT spot in the draft)...

    We have three critical FAs this year. Critical in the sense that we have no one on the roster to replace them with...those being Bell, Crowder and Carey. Reports are that a deal can be worked out with Bell. Crowder will be asking way more than his play dictates, although I personally think that we, as Fins fans, are more dissapointed in him because he's not ZT than that he's all that terrible a MLB, either way, reports are that we probably won't see him back. Carey is the wildcard because he actually warrants a tag if a deal can't be worked out...

    One other interesting note: Carey is 53rd on that list of salary. No bonus included. Would you put him as the 53rd best OL ?? Source: USAToday
     
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  13. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    No. I think that they have Carey's value at the $5-$6M range and Carey and his agent are asking $8-$9M. If that's the case, you let him walk. It really doesn't matter what you or I think he's worth. Truth to be told, my absolute limit would probably around $7M a year. I don't think he's an elite tackle. But it's going to come down to what the FO estimates his value at and since the rumors about them not being close are getting thicker, I'd say it's safe to assume that they are not seeing him as an elite tackle either. It is what it is. And I can't say I'd blame them for letting him walk if his asking price is too high. It's a sensibe decision. You think he's worth 6 million, you don't pay 8 or 9.
     
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  14. 124

    124 Banned

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    If Chicago has a 1st round pick from 2008 who is a T waiting to replace Tait, why in the world would they want Carey? I realize they would need a veteran back-up, but Carey isn't a back-up and they wouldn't be willing to give up a 1st or 2nd for a back-up. Carey isn't worth a 1st or 2nd anywhere. You'd get a 4th round pick for him.
     
  15. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    True enough...I guess just looking at the what the OL are making, he's certainly not overpaid right now. At $8M, sure he's a little overpaid, IMO. The problem is that letting him go creates another hole to fill. We certainly got better this year, but have just as many, if not more holes yet to fill than last season. Realizing that the hole that Wanny, Saban and Cam have put us in as far as overall talent won't be filled in one offseason, you hope to progress from season to season. If you look at what the OL are making, $7-8M is not that far out of line for Carey's worth, based on what they are actually making, not on talent.

    I don't have a good answer, but if we replace Carey with our #44 pick, is that tackle going to be better than he ?? I don't know...and if we have to to that, where will we get the OLB, the C, the WR, the DT, the S, the CB, etc we need ?? Obviously some of that will be answered by FA, but face it, we will overpay for most FAs at the same level of our own guys. I'd even say we'll overpay for our own as well...
     
  16. Vendigo

    Vendigo German Gigolo Club Member

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    I seriously doubt the Dolphins would lose any sleep over a little overpay. If we were talking a million a year here, we'd have him locked up by now. I think you really have to assume we're more likely talking two or three million difference and that's the amount of money you don't just give to someone you don't really think is worth it. Do we have plenty of holes already? Absolutely. And if Vernon Carey agreed to a five year, 25 million deal, I'd definitely sign him. 30 million, same thing. But if we're talking 8 million per year, then yes, I'd rather draft a RT in a great OL class and save 7 million per year. Even if I get a slight downgrade, the 7 million saved instantly allow me to sign an impact player at another position. The RT I draft might not be as good as Carey (there's also the chance of him being better, however) but in combination with another impact starter, it's an upgrade.
     
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  17. orangefinfan

    orangefinfan New Member

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    I personally think that we should keep Carey. I think his ability to play Left or Right Tackle is an asset to this team. It also keeps most of the line together going into next year. But that is just my opinion.
     
  18. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    4yrs 29.5 million w/ 10 million guaranteed. Yr1 6.5mil, yr 2 7 mil yr 3 7.5 mil yr 4 option yr 8.5 mil. 4, 3 and 3 Gted. Pay the man and lets go run over some jets!
     
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  19. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    The player at the other position better be a LT because with Carey gone, in your movie, Jake has no back up.

    The o-line is all about chemistry and if we trade/let walk Vernon Carey we are down to two guys that won't be rooks and will have played together for a FULL season. That is NOT building chemistry IMHO. We hope this and we assume that; both of which will get you in the Not For Long part of the NFL. If we don't resign him we surely should tag him and then make damn sure we get both his replacement and Jake's back up THIS YEAR!!!! Which will more than likley cost the same as just resigning the guy in the first place!

    Some interesting stats on Vernon:

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2006 4.76 ypc rated #2 Miami ranked #20

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2005 rt-4.21 #15 Miami ranked #11

    In Vernon's first year he only started 2 games (2004) and in 2005 he didn't become the full time starter until game # 5 and has started , on one side or the other, ever since.

    IMHO Vernon is the one player that whanny and stillman hit on that has become a truly good/great player for this team.
     
  20. Panther7

    Panther7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yes, you are correct. Brain fart! Will edit.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2009
  21. Panther7

    Panther7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Tait is a RT who looks like he is retiring. Chicago has only one OT on the roster for 2009 - Chris Williams. Again, Chris Williams is the lone returning tackle (either right or left tackle) on the roster if Tait retires. Remember, Chris Williams had back surgury last August, missed first 7 games of season, and returned to play the remaining games as a reserve. They have no proven starting tackles on their roster although they are high on Williams. They do have an option to resign St. Claire (their 32yr old LT last year) who is now an unrestricted FA. The Bears need a starting LT and RT and back-up tackles and have only one body on the current roster - Chris Williams. They can't go into 2009 with all their OTs having a grand total of 9 NFL game experience in reserve mode. I believe they have to sign at least two veterans at the tackle position.

    I highly disagree that Carey is only worth a 4th. He's worth a 2nd, and maybe a 1st to a desperate team. I think the Bears are that team. In the Bear's situation, I believe that it would make sense to use at least a 2nd rd pk for Carey so they now have a proven starting LT or RT. Carey is much younger and better player than St. Claire. They now can use their 1st rd pk on a position other than tackle and maybe draft an OT on the second day as a back-up. I think they are the only team in the league with so little experience at their tackle positions.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2009
  22. Panther7

    Panther7 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree his value as high as 7mil/year. The whole point of the thread is that although we shouldn't overpay, we can't afford to let him walk w/o draft picks. What is the solution?

    I would like to franchise Carey and be assured he doesn't sign the tender. Is that possible? We have to sign him for a reasonable salary or trade him for minimum 2nd rd pk. Is there another option. Do we have to franchise him and let the rest of the teams know we would accept less than 2 1st rd pks?
     

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