December 12th Update (OP) ---------------------------------------------------------- cbrad's (with input from Ronin) short summary: KeyFin (with input from cbrad) short summary: Joe Schad Summary: Adam Beasley Summary: We are 5-2 in December under Adam Gase. We were in a little better position last year to sneak in, but it's not crazy to think we can sneak in again this year. It's just a little out of our control. Team has to continue to play well. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/...-dolphins-playoff-picture-20171212-story.html Remaining schedules for respective teams; Bills vs. Dolphins, @Patriots, @DOLPHINS It's up to us to make the Bills final stretch an even more difficult one. We can vault them and take them out of the race. Chiefs vs. Chargers, vs. Dolphins, @Broncos Depends on what Chiefs team we get these last three games. They have to play a hot Chargers team next week and then close out at an away game with the resurgent Bronco's defense. They've been inconsistent, they could lose out totally if we beat them. Raiders vs. Cowboys, @Eagles, @Chargers Like the Chiefs, you never know which Raiders team you're going to get. They have a difficult last three weeks. Ravens @Browns, vs. Colts, vs. Bengals The easiest stretch of all of the teams. We need the Ravens to take the 5th spot over everybody else. We won't beat them out at the 6th spot. So, in retrospect, we might need to root for them to win out. (Somebody correct me if I'm wrong) Titans @49ers, vs. Rams, vs. Jaguars The crime is the Titans have a really good head start because they mostly play in a weak division. We need them to lose 2 of their 3 last games (provided we win out). It's definitely a possibility. Chargers @Chiefs, @ Jets, vs. Raiders It won't matter if the Chargers beat the Chiefs if we somehow manage to beat the Chiefs. All 3 of the AFCW teams will be jockeying for playoff position, we should be rooting for the Raiders to lose out. This is just a quick map; if someone has anything they'd like to add to clarify our situation, post below! I'll be sure to give you a fist bump and add it to the OP with credit.
Yeah.. I posted this in another thread but for us to get the WC we need two things to occur: 1) We win out 2) EITHER Baltimore loses one game OR Tennessee loses two. Otherwise, we just have to make sure we don't end up in a 2-way tie with Baltimore. That's the shortest summary I can think of.
Like I said, we can't have a 2-way tie with Baltimore because they beat us. However, if it's a multi-way tie with other teams, we get the WC based on conference record. I mean.. there is one really tiny exception to all this in that IF we end up into a 3-way tie with Baltimore and Oakland, then Baltimore goes through, but I left that out because it's just way too unlikely given that Oakland plays the Chargers, meaning that if both the Dolphins and Oakland (also 6-7 right now) win out then Oakland is likely to leapfrog the Chargers and EITHER there is a 4-way tie at WC or the Chargers are the team we tie with, and we win on conference record.
we need to win out and tennesee has to lose 1 and Baltimore needs to lose 2, the better option to look at is the afc west we will have wins against the chargers and chiefs and they both play each other so that will be another loss so I think if chiefs beat chargers we beat chiefs that should propel us over the chargers for last spot maybe?.
You got Baltimore and Tennessee reversed there. AFC West really doesn't matter, precisely because we play KC, one of KC, Chargers and Oakland will win the division (so that team is irrelevant), and we win on conference record with all these teams if we have a multi-way (3 or more) tie at 9-7, except for what I posted in post #4 with that unbelievably unlikely scenario where it's precisely a 3-way tie with Baltimore and Oakland. That scenario was much more likely before Oakland to the Chiefs. Now it's nearly impossible.
well if kc beats the chargers wouldn't that propel us over the chargers because we own the tie breaker since we beat them if kc beats the chargers they take the afc west which leaves raiders who wont win out. am I missing something else?
I'm just glad someone else thought this through! I think the Tennessee losing two scenario is plausible. @SF, LAR, JAX.
It was actually even more interesting before the Jets lost to the Broncos. Had the Jets and Dolphins been (however unlikely) the two teams to require a WC tiebreaker, we actually go through because of better record in common games lol.. would have been awesome!
yes I am just saying I think the afc west is what we need to focus on, ravens aren't going to lose out or its highly unlikely the browns get their first win against them. don't you think? and the raiders lets be honest aren't going to win out against philly chargers or cowboys. and if the chargers beat the raiders and we tie them we own the tie breaker. and if the chargers beat the cheifs and we win out then we would hold that tie breaker over the chiefs right?
Oh that's what you meant? No without Ravens losing one game OR without Tennessee losing two we mathematically cannot go through even if we win out because they already have more wins than us. So AFC West really doesn't matter.
If we win the last three- - We're in with a 2-way tie against any team except Oak or Balt (they both own heads-up against us) - We're out in a 3-way tie to Balt and Oak since Balt owns that specific tie-breaker (wins against both teams) - We're in with a three (or more) way tie to Balt, Oak AND any other team (since nobody has swept, it goes to conference record.) There are other scenarios that get us to the post-season, but the easiest one is CBrads....Baltimore loses one and we win three, plus one other team (besides Oakland) ends the season with the same 9-7 record. That's the goal compadres!
Yeah that technical exception in post #4 (where we tie with Baltimore and Oakland but with no other teams) holds because the first tiebreaker is whether one team beat all others and Baltimore beat both the Dolphins and Oakland so they (first Baltimore then Oakland head-to-head) go through in that extremely unlikely scenario.
btw.. just so people understand why the 2-way tie with Baltimore is the real potential problem (as opposed to a 2-way tie with Oakland), we can only get into a 2-way tie with Oakland IF Baltimore loses 2 out of 3 OR Tennessee loses all their remaining games because Oakland is 6-7 while Baltimore is 7-6 and Tennessee is 8-5.
We're doomed either way since Oakland beat us, right? Or am I missing something? I don't think we can win a two way tie with Oakland no matter what (except, of course, on the field....where we beat Oakland and the refs game them the game anyway).
Yes you're right.. just saying that for the issue with Oakland to even surface you're talking about a MUCH less likely scenario of Baltimore losing 2 or Tennessee losing all 3.
So realistically, we should be rooting for Tennessee to win this week (against the 49ers), and then lose their following 2 games?
Realistically yes. btw.. if we just model each game as a coin toss, then the probability a team wins ANY one game out of 3 is 3*(1/2)^2 = 0.375 or 37.5%. That's also the same probability they win ANY two out of 3. So using that simple coin toss model the probability Baltimore loses exactly one out of 3 is 37.5%, the probability Tennessee loses exactly 2 out of the 3 is 37.5%, and the probability either one of the two occur making sure we don't double count when BOTH occur.. is: 0.375+0.375-(0.375)^2 = 0.61 or 61%. Multiply that by the probability the Dolphins win all 3, which is (1/2)^2 = 0.125 or 12.5% and you get a rough estimate for the probability we make the playoffs at 0.125*0.61 = 7.6% using that short summary and ignoring the much more unlikely cases of Baltimore losing 2 or Tennessee losing all 3. 7.6% translates to about a 1 in 13 chance. Oh.. and if that looks too rosy, you can use the actual win% of each team to estimate those probabilities. Then that top part becomes 51.7% and the Dolphins winning all 3 becomes 9.8% and the overall estimate goes down to 5.1% or about a 1 in 20 chance of making the playoffs. Anyway that gives you a range.
Here's the thing though- in a two way tie with Tenn or LA, we're in based on conference record. We'd be in against the Chiefs and Bills because of heads-up wins. So add this to the summary you put in the main column up top- - We're in with a 2-way tie against any team (except Oak or Balt)
cbrad, if the Ravens win out, wrestle the 5th spot away from Tenn, and Tenn falls to the 6th spot, that's beneficial to us, correct?
Well.. yeah but only because the only way that could happen is if the Titans lose 2 more games than the Ravens the rest of the way. That is.. if the Ravens and Titans end up with the same record, then the Titans get the higher seed because they beat the Ravens. Since the Titans are one game ahead of the Ravens, that means they have to lose 2 more than the Ravens the rest of the way for the 5th spot to go to the Ravens (considering only Ravens vs. Titans). That means if the Ravens win out and are 10-6 then the Titans must have lost 2 of their remaining 3 games and are 9-7 in which case we beat them for that 6th spot if we win out.
It's important to remember that we can only take 1 of the 2 final slots....and we really don't care who gets the other one. If Tennessee wins out and keeps the #5, that doesn't hurt us. But if they lose out and put that spot into play, it could potentially help us. So what I'm looking at is what one team can help us the most by running the tables? That's definitely the Chargers. They take care of the Chiefs and the Raiders, plus close the door on a crazy Jets rally. If we tie the Chargers in any 2 or 3 way situation, we win. So even if they're in play for the #5 or #6 slot, it doesn't matter. Go Chargers! Remember, we need to tie someone other than just the Ravens. I think the ideal scenario would be for the Ravens to take the #5, Oakland phases out due to their schedule, and we're good the rest of the way regardless of who ties us. With that line of thinking, Tennessee is enemy #1 and we don't want them to win at all. But all this changes in one week depending on who wins/loses.
Nice! Look at this quote: And compare that to the calculations I did in post #26 (5.1% to 7.6% probability of making the playoffs). Almost identical whether you use a simple coin flip model or actual simulations (which also don't go through EVERY possibility). The discrepancy between the two is almost certainly due to the rare ways of making the playoffs not considered in that short summary; that's why it's slightly higher for the simulations.
