Indy (0-8)- Atlanta-8 Colts have shown no interest in giving up their #1 seed but, 3 home games vs Atl, Jax, and Carolina "could change things.
Miami (0-7)- @ KC-6 Phins are playing hard but, coming up empty. The effort the team is giving gives the team a fair chance vs KC, and then "home" vs Wash, and maybe even Buff.
St Louis (1-6)- @ Zona-4 Rams pulled a shocker in beating the Saints. With Bradford coming back and Cleve, Seattle, and Zona again coming up, they could fall out of the race very soon.
Arizona (1-6)- St Louis+4 Cards gave a great effort @ Balt before falling late. After the Rams, @ Philly, @ SF, and @ Rams. This week is best shot of the 4 to drop back into the pack.
Minny (2-6)- Bye Vikes came up with a "Game of the Week" win vs Carolina. Rough games ahead with @ GB, Oak, and @ Atlanta before another win with Denver coming in.
Jax (2-6)- Bye Jags go to Indy after the bye, and could well hand the Colts their first win. Then @ Cleve, and Houston. They end the year with Indy, which could be a very big game.
Carolina (2-6)- Bye Panthers dropped a tuff one to Vikes. They have Tenn, @ Detroit, and @ Indy coming up. The team has the talent to beat Tenn, and the lack of talent to lose to Indy.
Denver (2-5)- @ Oakland-8 Broncos may well be the worst of these 9 teams, with Tebow, contending. If he stays on the field, cannot see them winning another game.
Seattle (2-5)- @ Dallas-12 Seahawks have Balt, @ ST Louis, and Wash coming up after Dallas. Fair chance for a win to drop them from the race.
GAME OF THE WEEK
St Louis @ Arizona-4
I'm going with Zona at home here. I'm also giving our Phins a very fair chance of beating KC.
I still believe there is a fair chance of a 2 win team getting the #1 pick.
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Thanks Southbeach. This stuff is fascinating. Unfortunately, it looks like the only team to have "quit" is the Colts. I don't see the Colts beating the Panthers or Atlanta. Those teams have strong passing attacks and the Colts secondary is garbage. They'll likely split with Jax and go 1-15.
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Mark my words, Colts will go 0-16. Their owner, GM and all coaches are in on it. I've seen enough proof that tells me they dont want to win a game this year. THe KC game said it all. up 24-7 at halftime, scoring at will and then in 2nd half no first downs until 2 min left in game, where Dallas Clark drops a pass right in his hands for a long gain in fg range. If they win a game it will be at home against the Jags. I would love to be wrong but until I see them even try I will stick to my guns here.
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No way Dallas Clark drops a pass on purpose. No way.
A conspiracy theorist could say the same thing about the Dolphins' blown leads. Marlon Moore tanked the game to get Luck. He intentionally muffed the onside kick. And Will Allen purposefully took the wrong angle against the Tebow 2-point conversion. BALONEY!MAFishFan, cdz12250, Starry31 and 1 other person like this. -
The next three weeks of the Colts being home vs Atlanta, Jax, and Carolina should tell the tale (or tail) of their team.
I'm also not counting out Peyton coming back in Dec to show that they do not need Luck. We shall see. -
And for the OP, I really don't see us having a shot vs KC. they have been playing pretty well the past month. We lose that game.
The only game remaining I think we win is vs Washington.MAFishFan and Southbeach like this. -
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I've said it in 100 threads: If the Colts secure the #1 overall pick, they will trade out for a boatload of picks/players for one final Manning Super Bowl push.
unluckyluciano, PhinishLine, Southbeach and 1 other person like this. -
Colts just came out last night saying Manning will practice when able but will not play this year. If Luck wasn't available in next years draft Manning would play. Dallas Clark missed the pass that would have led to at least a fg. the week later he fumbles, Garcon laterals back the football to a Cincy player, They get a fg blocked and cincy runs it in for td. Last week if you saw the blocked punt in the endzone, someone tell me it was not done on purpose. It was way too obvious to me, he took 2 steps before attempting the punt, also he wasnt even far enough back in the endzone, its all too fishy for me.
I dont see an issue with Colts drafting Luck and putting him behind Manning. I dont think Manning would mind at all. This sets them up for the next 3 yrs with manning then another 12-14 yrs with Luck. -
It's Washington that is giving me cold sweatsPandarilla likes this. -
I'd be much more tempted to bet on Kansas City to cover.
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On second thought, never mind. Ross would have leaked it to the media. LOL -
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Realistically we will have to root for Indy to get to 2 wins....and us only stealing 1 win if we want to get #1 based on regular season. Otherwise it will require a trade up package for sure.
[TABLE="width: 318"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]MIA[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]IND[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SD[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TB[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYJ[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CIN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYG[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NO[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WAS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]ATL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]JAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CAR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OAK[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PHI[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]BAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYJ[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]JAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]64[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]113[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]54[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]119[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SoS%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SoS%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.5664[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.5462[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE] -
I think Kansas City destroys us with the game at Arrowhead. No way do we go in there and win, IMO. The Redskins scare me. We have to hope Grossman earns his job back before then because I don't see a John Beck led squad beating anybody.
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That's a little bit much for me at this point. I'll join in around week #13. -
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I too first thought it was 13 opponents x 16 game season...but thats only 208 games. You do need to add the 3 Div opponents records twice to get to the magic 256 divider for SoS%.
So its correct as laid out, where NE, NYJ, and BUF count twice for us....and HOU, TEN, and JAC count twice for INDY.
Thats the problem with our Div producing better records then Indy's Div. We need Jac to step it up. Of course, we really need NE, BUF, and NYJ to lose!gafinfan likes this. -
Speaking purely on the Indianapolis vs Miami battle for Andrew Luck, we should be cheering for the following:
(FOR WIN-LOSS PURPOSES ONLY)
1. Indianapolis over Atlanta (obvious)
2. Kansas City over Miami (obvious)
(FOR STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE PURPOSES)
3. San Francisco over Washington (seems likely)
4. Green Bay over San Diego (seems likely)
5. Houston over Cleveland (seems likely)
6. Chicago over Philadelphia (questionable)
7. Tennessee over Cincinnati (questionable)
8. Seattle over Dallas (not likely)
Now, let's pretend that both the Colts and Dolphins lose again this week. If #2 thru #6 all happen the way I have them illustrated, then the Dolphins' strength of schedule will have fallen below the Colts' strength of schedule. The Colts' SOS is currently 0.546 and the Dolphins' is currently 0.566. But if the 49ers beat the Redskins, the Packers beat the Chargers, the Texans beat the Browns, the Bears beat the Eagles, the Titans beat the Bengals and the Seahawks beat the Cowboys, then the Dolphins' SOS goes to 0.550 while the Colts' SOS jumps up to 0.561. That would give the Dolphins the tie-break (temporarily).
We'll just have to see what actually happens though.Sceeto likes this. -
djphinfan and BigDogsHunt like this.
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Southbeach likes this.
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I am still rooting for GB to lose 1 game! The sooner the better!
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One action no one here has yet stated which is a very real possibility. The Jets win the Division and tank the last game to give us our only win while the Colts remain winless or only have one win thus we lose the tiebreaker.:confused2:
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I will gladly admit, right now, if COLTS are 0-15 and playing their 1pm game vs. JAC and we are also 0-15 and playing NYJ @ 1pm.....and presuming we will have a higher SoS%, I will be at wit ends on what to do/feel. If we are going to lose that S0S% tiebreaker I dont want to be tied....even if that means rotating rounds 2-7 for #1 pick in alternating rounds, etc. I would rather get 1 win and accept those consequences and hope we trade up.
I seriously want no part of 0-16.....even if that means Mr. Luck....I just cant find solace in that from rooting interest. Now, if the product on the field puts us at 0-16 and somehow INDY racks up a Win vs Jac in week 17...and I know we thus landed Mr. Luck. I will get over it....but I WONT root for it.
I CANT ROOT for it....I CANT!. -
I believe that, among the 9 "contenders," Miami has the best overall talent on their roster, and better than some who are not in the race.
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Our team in that game, or any other, is gonna play the same, and the results will be the same.
This SFL Bandwagon fascinates me. The person some believe they "honor" by this nonsense, calls it STUPID, and says fans should support their teams through bad times.
What the hell does he know? He is only the object of the Bandwagon's affection, and has no say in the matter. Comical, and sounding like unwanted groupies for Rock Stars. LOL -
Exactly right about rooting for Wins.....but not in control of what happens.
I will never ever root for a loss to equal 0-16, even if Indy is already at 1 win, and us beating JESTs would put us into a tie and knowing we would lose SoS% tiebreaker.
0-16 is so horrible to me......I cant root for that over Mr. Luck. I Cant.
Again, if the results produce 0-16, I accept it, but it sucks.....and getting Mr. Luck helps....but 0-16....yuck....can not root for that.:tongue2:
P.S. if INDY has 2 wins...and us beating JEST would get us a 2nd win, and knowing we would lose tiebreaker.....(well, that would be a different story:wink2: as far as my interest goes) -
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And while we could beat the Redskins, for those worrying about that game just think of this. We lost to the worst starting QB in the NFL. -
Sit back and think about what a miserable season like this is reducing us to. Other teams are cheering their teams on to a playoff spot and here we are discussing the intricacies of SoS. Really sad. I just hope the result we are all praying for comes to pass.
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A healthy Steven Jax and possibly Bradford back I think St. Louis wins that one.
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Sorry if I am a little clueless, I really do not know how the seeding of the draft picks sorts out. But I cannot understand, nor fathom, how Indy would get the pick over us. We have made the playoffs like twice in ten years, and won the division once in that span. Indy has almost always won their division in the same span, and even with last year finishing well above us. How do we get boned here?
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Ya, I did, but I don't understand SoS%, sorry. =/
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1) fewest # of wins in reg season get better pick
2) if tied with another team for fewest wins......lowest SoS% (which is your full 16 weeks of opponents win/loss record) is used
3) if same SoS% is calculated (which is rare but could happen) then
4) Division record is used..if same record or if teams are from different divisions then
5) Conference record is used...if same record or different conferences then
6) coin flip
so past years of success do not matter....regular season record will seed the 2012 draft....ties will be broken according to above rulessloppyjoer likes this. -
[TABLE="width: 318"]
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[TD="colspan: 2"]MIA[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2"]IND[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]W[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CLE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SD[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TB[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYJ[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CIN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYG[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NO[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]KC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WAS[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]ATL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]JAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]CAR[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OAK[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PHI[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]BAL[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]TEN[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NE[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]HOU[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYJ[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]JAC[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]64[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]49[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]113[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]65[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]54[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]119[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SoS%[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]SoS%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.5664[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]0.5462[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Lower SoS% is considered the worst team....so as or right now...both Miami and Indy have 0 wins....but Indy thru end of week 8 has .546 SoS% and Miami has .566 SoS%...so Indy would pick #1 in round 1.
That's the basic jist. If this is how it stayed come end of regular season, we would rotate to pick #1 in round 2, and rotate like that all thru 7 rounds...but as far as round 1, Indy would have #1 pick.
Pretty easy once you see it play out.sloppyjoer likes this. -
Gotcha! Thanks so much, I got it now. =)
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