thank you.

 

If you're not the biggest Colts and Rams fan in the world now, you should be.

I just hope for the fanbase's sake we don't finish #2 or #3. Or worse yet, lose a tiebreaker or coin flip for the #1 pick to a QB-needy team like Indy. This thing is building so vigorously, it's going to be a big letdown even if end up in position for a Landry Jones.

 

I think everyone believed that it would be his last year anyway - But it's nice to get confirmation :up:

Holy crap.. That would suck so bad :sad:..

 

It was never a real rumor anyway. He graduates in the spring, so why would he stay at Stanford. Too many apparently don't know what a redshirt junior is.

 

Dude's got his degree already. Unless he's swayed by the California poon, he'll be swimming in South Florida poon (assuming we don't magically "get our **** together")

 

I always felt that it was ridiculous to suggest that he might stay in school. I just assumed that the people suggesting that were monumentally mis-informed or just trying to get a reaction, so I generally ignored those posts.

 

The only people who thought that he might stay were the anti suck for luck crowd. And they were saying that just to spite the SFLers. I was never worried about the possibility of him returning to Stanford

 

he could have come out last spring, the first year he was eligible to, but decided to stay at Stanford and get his degree.

 

Taking his talents to south beach.

 

at least we own the sos tiebreaker with the Colts should we both go 0fer.

 

Yeah just get used to it. We're not going to have the first pick in the draft.

 

Beattle, the question isn't whether Luck will come out or not, the question is will the Fins really get that coveted #1 overall pick.... I'd say the odds are much more in our favor that he comes out of school for this draft than whether or not we actually end up with the pick to get him...

 

I don't recall many discussions at all debating whether he would stay or not.

 

You act like there is some sort of rift between the fans that want us to sfl and the fans that don't want us to...the thing is, that isn't up to us fans...that's up to the players... It's just not in the DNA of the coaches and players to purposely tank...they'll be trying hard to win, whether or not it comes...

The real question is "What happens if we slip a W or two in there and we don't end up with the #1 overall pick..." I think we'll have fans jumping off the Julia Tuttle causeway....

 

For now. If the jets, bills, colts, chargers, cowboys, giants, eagles continue winning games.....a lot of games....then our schedule is considered "harder" meaning, it makes more sense to lose, making The Colts winning SOS.

Honestly, this season still has 10 games to go so wondering about SOS, or even how 3 or 4 teams will end up almost 3 months from now is a complete crap-shoot

 

^ Exactly, not only do we want to root for INDY, STL, AZ, MIN, etc to win. We want their Schedule Opponents to WIN lots of games too.

Not only do we want to secure the #1 pick by winning the fewest games, we want all our Schedule Opponents to LOSE lots of games too.

This will aide us in any SoS % tiebreaker come draft day over any other team with the same # of Wins. We want the lowest %...we want our Schedule Opponents to rack up the fewest Wins basically.

 

That is if the Dolphins actually pick Luck in the draft. There is no guarantee of this especially looking at some of their past picks.

KP

 

Not really ... if you do the math our opponents are sitting at .580 and the Colts are at .542 ... I used 16 games & counted division opponents twice

If you do it where you count our div. opponents only once & divide by 13, then we have a slight edge (.010) over the Colts of .554 vs .564

My assumption is that the NFL uses 16 games & counts the div. opponents twice ... but I could be wrong

I've seen someone post some data from ESPN but that data is incorrect based on what I have calculated ... unless there is a variable in the SoS calculations other than just pure winning percentages of scheduled opponents ... then the Colts own the tie breaker right now by .038

 

Considering we will more than likely have an entire new managerial team from top to bottom for the next draft ... any prior history can be thrown out the window

 

halt right there mister

no no no

 

I find that notion silly as well. I think people just want to bad mouth the organization so much that they'll pretend that they wouldn't take the consensus, best in a generation number 1 pick based on picks they disagreed with in the past that were in no way consensus, best in a generation prospects.

 

It is guaranteed

 

Even Jeff Ireland wouldn't be dumb enough to pass on Luck. He would get run out of Miami with torches and pitchforks if that happened. You think people were pissed at Cam for passing on Brady Quinn. Multiply that times a hundred or so.

 

Quinn?? If you ask most people on here they wanted Patrick Willis or revis at the time. Lol

 

No they wanted Quinn, without a doubt. There were some that wanted Willis but Revis? Not really.

 

He has actually been eligible for the last two drafts because he was a redshirt sophomore. He stated all along he wanted to get his degree. He has it.

 

I would not worry about that...anybody that gets brought in here will be taking a quarterback regardless of where we are picking.

 

Which quarterback though? They might try to outsmart everyone.

 

Not sure what you are doing, but you simply take every opponent on our Sched, and you take the total Wins they have, divided by the total # of games played.

Dolphins current SoS % thru week 7 = .579 (22/38)

NE = 5-1
HOU = 4-3
CLE = 3-3
SD = 4-2
NYJ = 4-3
DEN = 2-4

total = 22-16 (38 total games). In the NFL until you have played the game, the opponent is not officially on your schedule. Cant count the future till it happens...hahahaha. Something to do with potential shortened season, etc.

You do that for each team to find their SoS % thru a completed week.

Colts are .609
STL are .622

Long way to go, but the math is easy and straight forward....at the end of week 17....# of wins/divided by total games and lower SoS% wins.

Right now we have it....but it will change; and only matters for teams tied with same # of wins for draft order of round 1.

 

I'm convinced it's gonna come down to a slow motion moment in week 10. The Phins, Rams and Colts all have their most winnable game on the docket. One of these teams is gonna slip up and win...

 

nah bro. some fans wanted a QB, and it just happened to be that Quinn was the QB that year to be had in the draft......... nobody was high on Quinn. Quinn was garbage. some fans just wanted to draft based on need in a weak QB class.

personally, I was hoping they take a defensive player at the time.

 

Saving a franchise... so easy...

 

I thought this was an interesting article. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7160063/breaking-suck-luck-campaign

 

Whether they have played those games yet is irrelevant ... it still factors into there SoS because those teams & their records WILL factor into the final equation

Add up the win % for ALL 16 teams on the Fins & Colts schedule divided by 16 ... you are only adding up the wins and losses of the teams each team has played which is not the full picture of either team's SoS to this point ... you are omitting the records of the teams that both Miami & Colts have not played yet from the equation ... that is why your & ESPN's numbers are skewed.

Colts:......Fins
.571-----.833
.571-----.833
.500-----.667
.500-----.667
.286-----.571
.286-----.571
.500-----.571
.714-----.500
.571-----.667
.500-----.333
.667-----.667
.714-----.500
.571-----.500
.286-----.500
.833-----.571
.667-----.333
----------------
8.683----9.284

Divide both by 16 = .542 (Colts) vs .580 (Fins)

To further enhance the improbability that we'll be able to win a tie breaker with the colts, they have the Jags, Titans & Houston in their division ... Houston will be lucky to win more than 10 games, Tenn is a .500 at best, and Jags will be lucky to sniff 6-7 wins. Meanwhile we'll have the 12-14 win Pats counting against our SoS twice, along with the Jets & Bills who will finish with (conservatively) 7-10 wins each ... i just can't see any way we can end up with a worse SoS than them ... we're going to have to go 0-16 and they steal one somewhere for Miami to get that top pick

 

....The amish could do it?

 

I don't know what to think or what to believe anymore BD..lol..

If the season ended today would we have the pick?

 

Can Andrew Luck play defensive end? Because if he can't, Miami is not drafting him.

;)

 

I really liked seeing Barkley and Luck being showcased in last nights game. I came away very impressed with both. They both showed a great deal of composure under pressure and were able to shrug off the mistakes which is about 90% of Dolphins football. At the end of the year there will be some really good options at QB even if, God forbid, we don't get the #1 pick.