Ryan Tannehill in Obvious Passing Situations: A Comparison with Other NFL QBs
86 replies
In the columns below we have selected NFL QBs, their overall QB ratings in the past one to three years, their QB ratings when facing 2nd down and 11+ yards during the same period, and their QB ratings when facing 3rd down and 6+ yards during the same period:
QBR Overall
QBR 2nd & 11+
QBR 3rd & 6+
Tannehill 2014
81.2
25.4
62.9
Tannehill 2013
81.7
61
61.3
Tannehill 2012
76.1
64.4
60.9
Manning 2014
109
97.3
97.5
Manning 2013
115.1
119.7
82.5
Brees 2014
91.8
75.2
60.4
Brees 2013
104.7
113.2
97.7
Wilson 2014
112.9
118.8
96.3
Wilson 2013
101.2
114.2
77.9
Wilson 2012
100
100.8
99.7
Ryan 2014
96.4
88.3
114.7
Ryan 2013
89.6
88.3
87.6
Rivers 2014
116.3
126
134.4
Rivers 2013
105.5
106.4
103.4
Luck 2014
99.6
67.6
96.6
Luck 2013
87
77.7
75.1
Luck 2012
76.5
92.4
88.4
Rodgers 2014
114.8
50.3
132.9
Rodgers 2013
104.9
125.7
102.9
Kaepernick 2014
91.3
127.5
87.6
Kaepernick 2013
91.6
66.1
95.2
Dalton 2014
100.3
60.4
108.3
Dalton 2013
88.8
80.4
78
A. Smith 2014
88.8
39.6
103.6
A. Smith 2013
89.1
68.5
101.5
vt_dolfansubscriberThanks for the info.
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
Vengeful Odinforum_veteranI'd like to see how a QB like, say Eli Manning, would compare on this chart, especially from last year to this year. Like Tannehill, Eli spent the first portion of his season sorting out a new offense. It would be interesting to see how he compared from last year to this year.
I'm also curious why guys like Stafford, Newton, Cutler, Romo and Roethlisberger were left off.
The data seems to be very telling, but by eliminating the other QBs mentioned above, one could argue that this simply using confirmation bias to state that Tannehill isn't that good of a QB. I'm not saying he is or isn't, but I'm saying that the data set, as presented, is somewhat problematic.
Fin Dforum_veteranConsidering those numbers are literally all over the place, I'm guessing they don't really tell us anything.
"Vengeful Odin wrote:
I'd like to see how a QB like, say Eli Manning, would compare on this chart, especially from last year to this year. Like Tannehill, Eli spent the first portion of his season sorting out a new offense. It would be interesting to see how he compared from last year to this year.
I'm also curious why guys like Stafford, Newton, Cutler, Romo and Roethlisberger were left off.
The data seems to be very telling, but by eliminating the other QBs mentioned above, one could argue that this simply using confirmation bias to state that Tannehill isn't that good of a QB. I'm not saying he is or isn't, but I'm saying that the data set, as presented, is somewhat problematic.
Here are those additions:
E. Manning 2014
95.6
77.1
49.8
E. Manning 2013
69.4
72.1
57.5
Roethlisberger 2014
100.1
127.7
103.2
Roethlisberger 2013
92
75.8
97.6
Newton 2014
94.6
69.9
113.2
Newton 2013
88.8
79
80.9
Stafford 2014
89.3
103.6
109.9
Stafford 2013
84.2
98.9
85.6
Cutler 2014
94.9
44.1
113.4
Cutler 2013
89.2
79.7
101.5
Romo 2014
98.5
100.3
87
Romo 2013
96.7
80.2
60.4
vt_dolfansubscriberHow about Andy Dalton ?
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
vt_dolfansubscriberAw heck..jusy do everyone..then u can compare across the league.
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
Tannehill against Oakland two weeks ago, in 2nd and 11+ and 3rd and 6+ situations combined:
3 for 4 for 41 yards.
They essentially kept him out of those situations in the game.
Clearly when he can stay out of those situations, his QB rating stands to improve from the 60s to the 80s, on average.
vt_dolfansubscriberHeres an issue I have with this though. Look at 2014....your just showing a percentage. How often are Qbs in 2-11? The sample sizes could be vastly different. Miami has been good running the ball..so maybe we are in 2-11 less often...theres no reference point to go with this..
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
BumrushsubscriberDoesn't matter who they came from.
Care to dispute them? They are relevant.
resnorforum_veteranThey're only sort of relevant. With the line being crap, in obvious pass situations, how many times was Tannehill swamped, with nowhere to throw? How many dropped passes on second/third down? There are many variables here, it's not simply "Tannehill sucks."
Bumrushsubscriber"resnor wrote:
They're only sort of relevant. With the line being crap, in obvious pass situations, how many times was Tannehill swamped, with nowhere to throw? How many dropped passes on second/third down? There are many variables here, it's not simply "Tannehill sucks."
Our line has improved this year. All QB's have had WR's drop the ball.
resnorforum_veteranOh, and again, why do we insist on comparing years 1-3 of a RAW PROSPECT against prime years of established QBs (excluding QBs in their early years like Luck/Wilson/Newton/Kap).
resnorforum_veteran"Bumrush wrote:
Our line has improved this year. All QB's have had WR's drop the ball.
Oh, I didn't realize that this list was only for this year. And our receivers lead the league in drops. I'm asking if our drops come in obvious passing situations. All drops are not equal.
Fin Dforum_veteran"Bumrush wrote:
Doesn't matter who they came from.
Care to dispute them? They are relevant.
It does matter where they come from. If a person or organization has an established bias, then they tend to find ways to justify their bias. There's also nothing to dispute really. QB rating is an offensive team stat.
FinNastymoderator"resnor wrote:
Oh, and again, why do we insist on comparing years 1-3 of a RAW PROSPECT against prime years of established QBs (excluding QBs in their early years like Luck/Wilson/Newton/Kap).
Agreed. I think this data would be more valuable when comparing QBs in their first 3 years...
Unlucky 13subscriberIs this Qb rating, or QBR? If rating, then ok. Beyonf that though, we keep comparing Ryan to the established, superstar quarterbacks. Thank you for adding a few others. If he can be a solid starter, 10-20ish QB for the next so many years, thats a win.
"Fin D wrote:
Considering those numbers are literally all over the place, I'm guessing they don't really tell us anything.
That and this season so far is a small sample size.
"Unlucky 13 wrote:
Is this Qb rating, or QBR? If rating, then ok. Beyonf that though, we keep comparing Ryan to the established, superstar quarterbacks. Thank you for adding a few others. If he can be a solid starter, 10-20ish QB for the next so many years, thats a win.
The traditional QB rating, not ESPN's version.
Of the QBs listed in posts #1 and #6, Tannehill has the following percentile ranks:
2012
Overall QB rating: 2.7
QB rating on 2nd and 11+: 16.6
QB rating on 3rd and 6+: 11.1
2013
Overall QB rating: 11.1
QB rating on 2nd and 11+: 13.8
QB rating on 3rd and 6+: 13.8
2014
Overall QB rating: 8.3
QB rating on 2nd and 11+: 0
QB rating on 3rd and 6+: 16.6
A percentile rank of 50 would indicate an average standing with regard to these variables, at least among the QBs listed above.
On the other hand, Tannehill is in the 69th percentile in 2012, the 86th percentile in 2013, and the 100th percentile in 2014, in terms of how much worse he performs in obvious passing situations than he does in general.
In other words, he's well worse than average when it comes to how much his performance decreases (as measured by QB rating) in obvious passing situations versus in general. The other QBs listed tend to have less (if at all) of a decrease in performance in obvious passing situations.
vt_dolfansubscriberAnd this is important...
Why?
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
vt_dolfansubscriberYour not gonna start a string of obscure statistical threads like....this are you? No offense dude..Im sure theres something important in there somewhere..
But wouldnt it just be easier to say you dont think hes a good QB? We did this excercise before bro..remember?.
We get it.
Maybr break down numbers of another position..hey theres an idea.
"The more difficult the victory, the greater the happiness in winning"
Pele
"djphinfan wrote:
there's a lot of folks that like stats around here..
Stats are great. Small sample sizes and missing information however.......
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