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Ryan Tannehill in Obvious Passing Situations: A Comparison with Other NFL QBs

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Dolphans Unite!, Oct 10, 2014.

  1. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    What about Henne and Geno?
     
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yes, but he throws in guys like Manning, Brees, and Rodgers to pile on. And it's only worse if you truly believe that their situations are equal.
     
  3. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    [TABLE="width: 361"]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 170, bgcolor: white"]Henne 2014
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 100, bgcolor: white"]
    80.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 112, bgcolor: white"]
    85.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 98, bgcolor: white"]
    115.6
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 170, bgcolor: white"]Henne 2013
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 100, bgcolor: white"]
    76.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 112, bgcolor: white"]
    82.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 98, bgcolor: white"]
    93.4
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 170, bgcolor: white"]G. Smith 2014
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 100, bgcolor: white"]
    69.3
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 112, bgcolor: white"]
    12
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 98, bgcolor: white"]
    79.4
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl65, width: 170, bgcolor: white"]G. Smith 2013
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 100, bgcolor: white"]
    66.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 112, bgcolor: white"]
    38.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl66, width: 98, bgcolor: white"]
    61.1
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]

    [TABLE="width: 361"]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl67, width: 170, bgcolor: white"]Henne 2009
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 100, bgcolor: white"]
    75.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 112, bgcolor: white"]
    105.5
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 98, bgcolor: white"]
    48.1
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl67, width: 170, bgcolor: white"]Henne 2010
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 100, bgcolor: white"]
    75.4
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 112, bgcolor: white"]
    78.8
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 98, bgcolor: white"]
    64.7
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [TR]
    [TD="class: xl67, width: 170, bgcolor: white"]Henne 2012
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 100, bgcolor: white"]
    72.2
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 112, bgcolor: white"]
    45.7
    [/TD]
    [TD="class: xl68, width: 98, bgcolor: white"]
    92.9
    [/TD]
    [/TR]
    [/TABLE]
     
    roy_miami likes this.
  4. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

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    Please remember Mark Twain's dictum. Just because we have computers now does not render it meaningless!
     
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  5. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    If these stats told us the true story, then Henne and Smith are better QBs than Tannehill. If anyone thinks thats true, then they've never watched a single game of football in their lives.
     
  6. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    I don't think it would be wildly illogical to believe that Chad Henne, a 2nd-round QB in his sixth year as a starter in the NFL, is roughly as good as, or perhaps even better than, a developmental QB picked in the first round, early in his third season as a starter.

    Rather than Tannehill's being light years better than Henne and making that belief wildly illogical, I think it's far more likely that Dolphins fans, having been thoroughly let down by Henne after having a great deal of hope for him when he was drafted, are seeing him through soured lenses, whereas their lenses for Tannehill haven't soured and are still rose-colored.

    In other words, we're still holding out hope for Tannehill, and perhaps not unreasonably so, whereas we've been dumped on by Henne and are likely seeing him accordingly. I'd say that discrepancy in how the players are viewed by Dolphins fans is more responsible for their perceived talent than anything either player is currently doing on the field. And the numbers of course bear that out.
     
    jdang307 likes this.
  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    No argument there...could add in a sprinkle of STs too though.
     
  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    The Cowboys are #1 in 4th qtr passer rating over the past like, what, 3 years or some such? Pretty similar outcome.
     
  9. Fin4Ever

    Fin4Ever Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Do you have an 84 Marino jersey? If so, wear that and maybe Tannehill will play a miraculous game..it's time for him to sh@# or get off the pot!!
     
  10. roy_miami

    roy_miami Well-Known Member

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    I agree, especially after seeing the Henne and Geno numbers. And there doesn't look to be enough data to draw conclusions from an entire season let alone 4 games.
     
    Fin D likes this.
  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Where are these stats compiled from?
     
  12. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    Anything in there about offensive line performance, and plays called? QB rating doesn't paint the entire picture. Kinda like WHIP in baseball or +/- in basketball.
     
    adamprez2003 likes this.
  13. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    The bolded part of the following still holds even when the Henne and Geno numbers are added:

     
  14. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Id personally love to see him break down our defense stat wise...so much we could learn about various backers etc.
     
  15. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    do you have a series of stats comparing the offensive lines giving up pressures and sacks in these situations also?
     
    resnor likes this.
  16. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    What did you learn with this breakdown?
     
  17. CitizenSnips

    CitizenSnips hmm.

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    Thst tannehill is....I think...a quarterback?
     
    PhinFan1968 and 77FinFan like this.
  18. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    That DJ is NOT a "stat monk". :shifty:
     
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  19. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    According to the only source of that data I'm aware of (PFF), the Dolphins haven't been pressured significantly more frequently, overall, than the average team in the league since Ryan Tannehill was drafted.

    Whether they've been pressured significantly more frequently than the average team in the league in these situations, per se, is an unknown and is unable to be determined, to my knowledge.

    However, personally, I wouldn't bet money on a team's having surrendered significantly more frequent pressure than the average team in a given situation, when that team hasn't surrendered significantly more frequent pressure than the average team overall.

    And it may be just me, but I'm comfortable concluding on that basis that it's very unlikely that pressure, per se, is accounting for the differences observed with regard to the QBs listed throughout the thread.
     
  20. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    This...not much honest...theres alot of details left out. Was this through week 5? Number of attempts would also be helpful....one QB could have alot more 2-11 then other QBs...so...the numbers could be skewed. I mean...I guess his point was that he thinks Ryan Tannehill isnt very good in obvious passing situations...but thats not something I really have ever thought.
     
  21. huck1974

    huck1974 FU Gene Steratore

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    So....we learned that at this point, our QB is below average, which is what most of us already knew. I do appreciate the stats though. I have made it clear how I feel. He better put together a few consistent games like the Oakland game before I change my mind. Right now, he is Henne. Some complaints about comparing Rodgers and Brees etc. I say switch our QB with Green Bay's in your mind. I'm not sure in that situation it is as much team as it is QB as I feel that they have an advantage at WR and that is it. It's always the same ****. He is a rookie. His line sucks. Mike Sherman sucks. We can't run the ball. We have a new offense. WR dropped the ball. Bad play call. BLA BLA BLA BLA, and some BLA.
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I still disagree with that "not pressured more than the average" bit. Does that account for one defender getting pressure, as opposed to when Tannehill had guys coming up the middle and around the end on every play last year? Like, if Tannehill is getting pressure by say 2 guys, do they count that the same as Brees having one guy put pressure on him? Does it make sense what I'm asking? Essentially, but all pressure is the same...but statistics won't differentiate that.
     
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  23. huck1974

    huck1974 FU Gene Steratore

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    Furthermore, can we add stats on which QBs can feel pressure in the pocket and move a bit to make a throw? Call it the statue stat because our guy just stands there and takes the sack.
     
  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Yup, I tried to make this point before.

    I challenge people to go back and watch the tape from last year, many of the pressures and sacks were jailbreaks.
     
    resnor likes this.
  25. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    CK showed as much ...he had the timing down for his sacks..RT never had a prayer on alot of them

    And one wonders why his 2-11 rating was off..good luck not getting sacked
     
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  26. dWreck

    dWreck formerly dcaf

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    I asked the same thing a few days ago and got flammed by a few people. It's uncanny, eh? :lol:
     
  27. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    A sack doesn't figure into one's QB rating, because a pass wasn't attempted on the play.
     
  28. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    Along those lines, Russell Wilson, for example, according to PFF, was pressured on 10% more of his pass dropbacks than Ryan Tannehill in 2013 (43.8% to 33.6%).

    In fact, there were 22 such quarterbacks in the league in 2013, who were pressured more often than Ryan Tannehill when dropping back to pass.

    Also, Ryan Tannehill's passing accuracy under pressure in 2013 (57.7%) wasn't significantly different from the league average.

    Additionally, Tannehill was in the 15th percentile in the league in 2013 in terms of how often he was able to avoid sacks under pressure. Russell Wilson on the other hand was in the 87th percentile.

    So despite that Wilson was pressured 10% more of the time than Tannehill when dropping back to pass, he was sacked the same percentage of the time overall as Tannehill (8.8%), meaning that Wilson was able to avoid sacks when pressured a great deal more than Tannehill. And there were 26 such QBs in the league in 2013 who were better than Tannehill at avoiding sacks when pressured.
     
  29. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    According to PFF, 5 of Ryan Tannehill's 58 sacks in 2013 occurred prior to 2.5 seconds after the snap, which represented 1.3% of his pass dropbacks of that duration.
     
  30. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Because the QB has no control over the protections?

    Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk
     
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  31. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    And?

    You don't think they came on obvious passing situations and 2.5 seconds has nothing to do with what I'm talking about. A jailbreak denotes numerous players getting pressure, especially from multiple directions.
     
  32. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Yeah it was the line calls. Had nothing to do with the crap talent on the line or the crap oline coach and crap OC. It was Tannehill not calling the right protections somehow.
     
  33. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    When Jonathan "I Quit" Martin, Richie "Batschnit Crazy" Incognito, John ”I Can't Believe I Ate The Whole Thing” Jerry, Tyson "DEs Sure Are Fast!" Clabo make up 80‰ of the "protection”, you ain't going nowhere but the ground.

    Then there's Jim Turner, who was obviously more preoccupied with handing out blowup dolls and joking around, to even remotely help improve the horrid pass protect / run blocking situation.

    Sent from my Transformer TF101 using Tapatalk 4
     
  34. finwin

    finwin Active Member

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    Throwing out the high and low, he averages 81.4 overall and 61.5 in obvious passing downs. That chart is very helpful but it tells us what we already know. I believe Tannhill's passer rating has been in the bottom 3rd of he league these past three years but hopefully he and the OL continue to improve. I see he's not fumbled or thrown as many int's this year so that's a huge plus and that alone would be enough to get us the additional 1 game win we lacked last year to get to the playoffs. I believe if Tannehill was in the top third consistently, we would be perennial contenders.
     
  35. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    ...and which would presumably result in a very quick sack, which doesn't comport with the data. Tannehill was sacked in 2.5 seconds or faster on only 0.8% (less than one percent) of his pass dropbacks in 2013. He dropped back to pass 657 times in 2013, and was sacked five times in 2.5 seconds or faster.
     
  36. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Unless, of course, a jailbreak definition is not limited to under 2.5 sec. When does the pressure start making an impact? I'd never claim all of his sacks are not his fault...some definitely are...but I'd say a majority aren't.

    Out of curiosity, is that 2.5 second timing equal to the time from the snap to contact...or the snap to sack?
     
  37. Stringer Bell

    Stringer Bell Post Hard, Post Often Club Member

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    Funny none of those guys were regarded as that bad before coming to Miami, or after.

    Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk
     
  38. Dolphans Unite!

    Dolphans Unite! Banned

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    When the emphasis is on explaining away one player's deficiencies, then the tendency is to view that player as being impinged upon negatively by the players around him, rather than having perhaps a negative effect on them, as well.

    With the prominent role of the quarterback in today's game, it's far more likely that a deficiency at quarterback is going to ripple out negatively to many other aspects of the team, rather than it being the other way around, where deficiencies elsewhere on a team are responsible for the quarterback's inadequate play.
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Did Inognito get picked up? How's Martin doing in San Fran? Was Clabo highly sought after? I mean, come on, or line was terrible last year.
     
  40. vt_dolfan

    vt_dolfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    Yes but that pass rush certainly effects the accuracy to the pass..wouldnt you have to agree. If its a deep pass..hes gotta hold onto it longer
     

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