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Ryan Tannehill Top 10 qb?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dirtylandry, Dec 20, 2017.

  1. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    lol played like a top 3? played like a top 10? you're saying there were games where he looked better than Brees/Brady/Wentz? I'm not talking a drive or a play, I'm talking a whole game.
     
  2. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Last year alone he had 2 games with a 130 passer rating and a 124 passer rating. Those are top 3 level games
     
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  3. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill's clock is ticking. I take comfort knowing this. Miami's biggest issue was qb this year (close 2nd was OL). They won't go into camp a Tannehill injury away from 6-10, when they would have gone 9-7. It is time to have an ins policy and an eventual takeover. Gase's job is on the line
     
  4. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    any consistency? did he follow it up with another?
     
  5. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Year prior he had a 158 and 112...Top 3 games
    Year before that 125, 123,118
    120 in the year before
    123 in the year before.

    That's at least 10 top 3 games out of what, 75? And there are probably more because I just skimmed.
     
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  6. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    a broken clock is right twice a day.
     
  7. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    okay now I'm convinced you are just trolling.
     
  8. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    just because he had a few games, doesn't make him a consistent top 10
     
  9. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    That's twice more than you have ever been correct in a single day.
     
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  10. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    What is your magical static Top 10 QB list of the last 5 years?
     
  11. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    posted that already. Brees/Brady/Rodgers/Ben/Rus You draft until you get one. otherwise you are wasting time
     
  12. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    You compulsively post the same things daily but can't be bothered to repeat yourself when called out and then make a half of a point about drafting until you get one?

    So one quarterback a year? Draft one? Or every round?
     
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  13. aesop

    aesop Well-Known Member

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    And I only see 5 QBs there. Who are the bottom 5?
     
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  14. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    His last 8 games.

    For years I've said thill was handicapped by a terrible oline, no commitment to the run game and not being allowed to audible. No QB has ever been able to succeed under those circumstances.

    As soon as those things are all addressed, thill produced at a Top 10 rate. This all happened, this is all fact.

    And now, he's not playing and virtually the same team is doing terrible.

    We can spin it. We can pretend it didn't happen. But all of this is fact.
     
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  15. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's so hard to win with a QB like Rodgers and Big Ben and Drew Brees, it's that much harder to win with someone not as good. It can happen (yes, Eli Manning, Flacco). Go back 30-40 years and the winning QB is dominated by the elites. Future HOF'ers.

    So: You don't dump Tannehill, but you realize it's an uphill battle to win with an elite QB, it's even steeper with a lesser QB. Everything needs to be that much better. I don't see any reason not to double up on QB now. Tanny's been here a while. Years 1-3/4 maybe not. Year 6 with a knee injury spread over two seasons, yes, it's time. You see a Russell Wilson in round 3, etc. you go for it. Think you got Kirk Cousins in round 4, you do it.

    If you don't think you have one of those, you don't.
     
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  16. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    he needed a running game. he needed a line. he needs a grocery list
     
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  17. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That was funny.
     
  18. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Brady has 1/4 of those things. they took away Blount. He won a SB w/o Gronk. give me a qb like that. keep searching
     
  19. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I will add, that based on his best stretch last year, his role was reduced and he turned into a pre-Mahomes Alex Smith essentially (except throwing more INTs). If that's top 10 then that's top 10
     
  20. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    I have. He played like a top 10 QB last year, and here are my examples of why. I watched every single snap from every single QB in 2016, made my own grading system, and evaluated every single play on all-22 - most of them in slow mo. It took me months to complete. Here are the findings.

    http://www.thirdand10.com/tannehill-era/

    About 30 GIFs inside of elite level play.

    And here's a comparison between Tannehill, Moore and CUtler.

    https://www.lockedondolphins.com/tannehill-savior/

    He had a top 10 "execution percentage" a top 10 "mistake percentage" and graded out in the top 10.


    But, we all know OP won't acknowledge any of this. Just keep saying "not top 10, try again son" or whatever he calls his alter egos.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2017
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  21. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Look at the top 10 QB ratings over the last 3 years. You will see a lot of QBs aren't "consistent" top 10. So even if Tannehill was performing at a top 10 level it doesn't necessarily mean he is going to be top 10 in QB rating every year.

    2015

    russel wilson
    Andy Dalton
    Carson Palmer
    Tom Brady
    Kirk Cousins
    Dre Brees
    Cam Newton
    Tyrod Taylor
    Matthew Stafford
    Alex Smith

    2016

    Matt Ryan
    Tom Brady
    Dak Prescott
    Aaron Rodgers
    Drew Brees
    Sam Bradford
    Kirk Cousins
    Derek Carr
    Andrew Luck
    Marcus Mariota

    2017

    Alex Smith
    Tom Brady
    Drew Brees
    Deshaun Watson
    Carson Wentz
    Matthew Stafford
    Case Keenum
    Jared Goff
    Kirk Cousins
    Aaron Rodgers


    1 time appearances in the last 3 years: 14 with Watson being a rookie this year so we will give it 13. That's nearly 1/2 of the spots.

    russel wilson
    Andy Dalton
    Carson Palmer
    Cam Newton
    Tyrod Taylor
    Matt Ryan
    Dak Prescott
    Sam Bradford
    Andrew Luck
    Marcus Mariota
    Deshaun Watson (rookie)
    Carson Wentz
    Case Keenum
    Jared Goff
     
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  22. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    most high drafted qbs don't though.
     
  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    He didn't need a running game. He needed a commitment to the running game. Something Brady has.
    He needed to be allowed to audible. Something Brady was allowed to do.

    So not the same thing at all. Also, Brady was under constant pressure last time we played them....how'd he look that game?

    I'll ask you what I've asked everyone else that wants to pretend this isn't an issue.

    Name all the QB's that had a crap oline, weren't allowed to audible and the team was in the last 5 spots in the league of rushing attempts...and still produced at a high level.

    You can't, because there's never been one.

    The problem is, a commitment to the running game and being able to audible are tools to handle a terrible oline. Tools, Thill wasn't given.

    And before you vomit all over the screen with your insanity, explain why he performed at a Top 10 level AFTER we got rid of Thomas & Turner, committed tot he run game and not only let him audible but included him in game planning.
     
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  24. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Yes all of that happened.

    The problem is, you're basing your list on an opinion. A poor, uninformed opinion that is clearly rooted in hot takes and anger.

    I challenge you to take Thill's QB ratings from the Pitt game till he got hurt and find out is QB rating over those games as a whole. Then compare that rating versus the rest of the league.

    I know you think that is cherry picking. But what happened between the Pitt game and the previous game? Anything significant?
     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill has steadily improved over the years, despite having a revolving door at HC/OC and QB coach. His best one season was under Gase as well, so I think the odds are pretty favorable that he will be AT LEAST as good as he was in the final 8 games.

    And remember, we were 7-1 in that stretch.

    Personally, I could care less if Tannehill is top 10, top five or bottom 30...I don't see the point in debating that aspect AT ALL. The only metric that matters to me is wins- can we win with Ryan Tannehill or not? Based on last season alone, I think the answer is yes.

    But you also have to remember that we're not comparing apples to apples here when talking about 2016 vs 2018. Our defense will be worlds better next season because of the emergence of Howard, Tank, McDonald, etc. and we will also be adding McMillian to that mix in 2018....plus any rookie pass rushers and linebackers we pick up. Then you have the whole Ajayi vs Drake debate...it's hard to say that we're not better off today at RB than we were a season ago. Weekly all-purpose yards trumps an occasional huge breakout game any day of the week.

    These are all indications that Tannehill doesn't need to evolve further as a QB like some people are saying, but simply deliver what we saw in that 8-game stretch. With a low-90's baseline as a typical performance and a crushing defense that shuts down the scoreboard in the 2nd half, we simply need a leader who's consistent.

    You can look at five games this year alone where Cutler/Moore struggled in the 4th and handed away a victory up for the taking- would you really care what Cutler's QBR was if we were 11-4 right now? I wouldn't. My only focus would be winning the AFC. That's what consistency gives you as a fan base, you don't have to argue over the passing metrics and try to dissect every single play.

    Again, I could care less where Tannehill ranks in the grand scheme of things as long as we're winning. Don't get too caught up in that "top 10" argument because we see multiple top 10 QB each year that fizzle out in Wild Card games or don't even make the post-season. If we are generating wins with Tannehill next season, then he's clearly good enough.
     
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2017
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  26. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    More so, it's about SEEING the ability. Stats are only used by fans. I promise you there isn't one high-level decision maker that bases his decisions on yards thrown and touchdown passes.

    Even in his first couple of years, in the games where he would make mental mistakes, some misfires in terms of accuracy, but he would make several throws in most games where you could see the high-level talent. In this Pats game from 2013, Phil Simms and Jim Nantz were GUSHING about him. It was the entire broadcast.

    He had a few misses (almost threw a pick on a bad read on a seam route, sailed a corner route) but look at these other plays.





    That is some high level quarterbacking. He's made the improvements in some of his shortcomings like ability to escape the pocket side to side opposed to always climbing into pressure.

    The strides are OBVIOUS. THere's a reason all the film guys think higher of Tannehill than the general population. The Ian Wharton's, Mark Schofield's, guys that get paid to do this stuff.
     
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  27. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    The interesting thing is that once the old timers retire (brees,brady,roethlisberger,rodgers) there really aren' any "elite" QBs playing. There are some good QBs but none you can put in that category. Not sure we need tannehill to be elite just good
     
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  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I think Wilson belongs there now.
     
  29. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    He’s not a top ten qb..never has been.. not sure why the thread was necessary.
     
  30. DHitchens

    DHitchens Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think we first have to define the meaning "top-10 QB" has, before we can determine the meaning of Tannehill's being a top-10 QB (or not).

    It could be that the top 6 or 8 QBs in the league, for example, cluster into a group that's distinct in terms of their performance from the next 10 or 12 QBs, and then Tannehill's being top-10 would have meaning only if he were also top-6 or top-8.

    In other words, the cart is before the horse here. First we have to determine how many QBs comprise the upper echelon, and then determine whether Tannehill is in it.

    It's entirely possible that the 10th-best QB in the league isn't meaningfully distinct in terms of his performance from the 18th-best QB in the league, for example. We may have to get to top 6 or 8 before there is a meaningful difference from "average" to "upper echelon" (or whatever terms one wants to apply to make meaning of these groups).
     
  31. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Rogers isn't as old as Brady/Brees tier.
    Newton, Wilson, Wentz, Goff, Ryan (Matt). Any of the rookies this year or next that pan out. Young guys on the cusp like Prescott and Watson. Then there are the next tier guys like Dalton, Flacco, Cousins, Carr, Stafford ... I'd put THill well into that second category more than the first. You need a helluva strong unit (generally defense) to get through with a second tier QB. The Giants, the Ravens. And keeping those team together more than 2-3 years is nearly impossible. Gotta have that QB to have sustained success.
     
  32. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    you think teams have to have debates about their qb like this? teams that win, with qb's?
     
  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    He actually was last year, after the purge of Thomas and turner. And it wasn't just Top 10 qb rating wise, but tape wise too.
     
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  34. DHitchens

    DHitchens Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree with that. He also played in a way that wasn't meaningfully distinct from that during the final 13 games of 2014, Bill Lazor's second year.
     
  35. danmarino

    danmarino Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Brady has all of those things. Including an historically good defense.
     
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  36. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    And a lip-reader in the booth that told him what the defense was doing every freaking play! Let's not forget those small details....
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    Yeah the proper way to do all this is to take all the games every QB has started, adjusted the ratings to a given year, then use a t-test to estimate how similar they are, then use something called multi-dimensional scaling to put that NxN dimensional matrix (where N = number of QB's) onto a 1-dimensional scale. That would give you on a single dimension estimates of how similar different QB's are. It would also give you a way of estimating the probability one QB would have a rating higher than another QB in any given game.

    I should actually do that sometime just to see where all kinds of QB's rank historically, but that takes some time so until you have something like that I'd just suggest setting a threshold at X standard deviations above the mean for each year.

    Example: let's say the threshold is 1 standard deviation above the mean for all starting QB's and we use passer rating.

    OK.. you do NOT want to use league averages now, you want to use starting QB averages for each year, which you can get from here after sorting by passer rating (sorting also removes all QB's that didn't qualify to be "starting" QB's):
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/passing.htm

    Find the mean and standard deviation of those starting QB passer ratings for each season, which are:
    Mean:
    2012: 85.63
    2013: 86.96
    2014: 89.44
    2015: 90.35
    2016: 91.03
    2017: 88.41

    Standard deviation:
    2012: 10.92
    2013: 12.96
    2014: 10.25
    2015: 10.23
    2016: 11.06
    2017: 11.23

    And now your cut-off is at the mean+standard_deviation:
    Cutoff passer rating:
    2012: 96.55
    2013: 99.92
    2014: 99.69
    2015: 100.58
    2016: 102.09
    2017: 99.64

    In 2012 and 2013 there were 7 QB's above the cutoff, in 2014 there were only 4, in 2015 there were 6, in 2016 there were only 4, and in 2017 so far there are 5. If that cutoff is too high, then just choose a different threshold like 0.8 standard deviations or so. In any case, the units are always the same so it's just a matter of choosing the threshold you want.
     
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  38. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    I think Russell Wilson is that. Even still, he has some absolute STINKERS. He had that 5 pick game against the Packers last year. This year, he was 9/16 37 yards and 2 INTs through 3 quarters against the Jaguars.

    But you're right, when those guys are gone, there is going to be a decent little void. Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott probably stand the best chance from the real young guys, IMO.
     
  39. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah but Wilson isn't retiring.

    I'm never going to let go of the fact you said Wilson would be cut (or was it, out of this league) if he was drafted by the Dolphins.
     
  40. Aqua4Ever04

    Aqua4Ever04 Write Travis Write Club Member

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    Every team but the few that are lucky enough to have generational type of guys. How do you think the BUcs feel about Jameis Winston right now? Or the Titans with Mariota? They are a lot like Tannehill early on his career - lots of flashes, but lots of inconsistencies. But I'm sure you love those two because of their names.

    Getting on the QB carousel again puts you at a great risk of becoming the next Browns, Bears or Jets. Sure, you've got a 10% chance to land an elite QB, but you've got that 30% chance that he's a player around Tannehill's level, and then about 60% that you're playing guys like Bryce Petty, DeShone Kizer or MIke Glennon.

    That might sound like fun to you, but not me.
     
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