Ryan Tannehill

"cbrad wrote:

Depends on the poster, but yes in general we've had many years in the past where people said Tannehill would be top 10 in passer rating that year etc... and it didn't occur. And yes best example was 2018 because so many agreed Tannehill finally had the right coach (Gase) and the right surrounding cast. Even the 5 games prior to injury Tannehill had a 92.9 rating, which was exactly league average!

Dude. Omg

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

If Joe Philbin and Adam Gase has gone on and made elite quarterbacks with the Jets...and wherever Philbin ended up, I might could buy your argument but seeing remarkably successful they’ve been...

Let’s be completely honest and call it like it is, Tannehill had crap for coaching here in Miami.

Wait a second.. my argument is precisely because we had crap coaching that there's no reason to think Tannehill would succeed here. In other words, there's no reason to "regret" seeing Tannehill go because there's no evidence he would have succeeded here. Him being traded was arguably the best for everyone involved (Tannehill, Titans AND Dolphins.. unless you think he would have succeeded here).

"cbrad wrote:

Wait a second.. my argument is precisely because we had crap coaching that there's no reason to think Tannehill would succeed here. In other words, there's no reason to "regret" seeing Tannehill go because there's no evidence he would have succeeded here. Him being traded was arguably the best for everyone involved (Tannehill, Titans AND Dolphins.. unless you think he would have succeeded here).

Ok we agree in that regard. We did have ***CRAP*** coaching.

Could Tannehill have succeeded in Miami under Flores? Guess we’ll never know but at least Tannehill is with a team with some damned fine coaching and I couldn’t be happier for him

I wonder if any reporter will have the stones to ask Stephen Ross what it's like to see Tannehill do so well for another organization while he's paying most of his salary?

"smahtaz wrote:

I wonder if any reporter will have the stones to ask Stephen Ross what it's like to see Tannehill do so well for another organization while he's paying most of his salary?

I”d rather see a reporter as Gase why Tannehill has been so much more successful in Tennessee than in Miami.

"Pauly wrote:

I”d rather see a reporter as Gase why Tannehill has been so much more successful in Tennessee than in Miami.

If I were Gase I'd say because he was recovering from injury and Grier couldnt put even a marginal OL together and neglected the running back position when he didnt fluke into someone

"Pauly wrote:

I”d rather see a reporter as Gase why Tannehill has been so much more successful in Tennessee than in Miami.

With as brutal as New York sports media is, I wonder if that question has already been posed in articles regarding Gase, Tannehill and the ineptitude of the Jets

"Pauly wrote:

I”d rather see a reporter as Gase why Tannehill has been so much more successful in Tennessee than in Miami.

How soon we forget. Gase was the HC for 3 years and Tannehill missed half of it. The consensus seems to be that it takes a player a full season to return to form after a major knee injury. I'm pretty sure Tannehill is right where Gase expected him to be.

Nick foles ran the chip kelly neutered qb offense in Philly that year with the tempo based no huddle offense.

product of the system results more than anything else. Until the nfl caught up with Kelly’s concepts late that year and come the following year completely had it figured out.

we’ve talked about this before.

Miami ran a similar concept neutered qb offense 2014 and 2015 with Kelly’s disciple yet we did even worse. Ran it without the no huddle tempo.

"Hoops wrote:

Nick foles ran the chip kelly neutered qb offense in Philly that year with the tempo based no huddle offense.

product of the system results more than anything else. Until the nfl caught up with Kelly’s concepts late that year and come the following year completely had it figured out.

we’ve talked about this before.

Miami ran a similar concept neutered qb offense 2014 and 2015 with Kelly’s disciple yet we did even worse. Ran it without the no huddle tempo.

That's analogous to the point I've made regarding Tannehill in 2019 and frequent QB rollouts. If and when the NFL catches up with the fact that on a comparatively large percentage of passing plays, Tannehill's passing targets are confined to half the field, we may see a similar outcome.

"The Guy wrote:

That's analogous to the point I've made regarding Tannehill in 2019 and frequent QB rollouts. If and when the NFL catches up with the fact that on a comparatively large percentage of passing plays, Tannehill's passing targets are confined to half the field, we may see a similar outcome.

That’s not even remotely comparable. The entire league uses roll outs it’s a staple even.

I’ve seen a lot of QBs who need a heavy dose of half field reads only passing concepts.

tannehill on tape has never been one of them. Sure they are gonna use roll outs off of heavy run looks etc and predetermined primary progressions etc or even single concept ones with the QBs legs as the secondary option and tiered half field reads but any notion of tannehill can’t function as a full field progression based qb has never held water.

"Hoops wrote:

I’ve seen a lot of QBs who need a heavy dose of half field reads only passing concepts.

tannehill on tape has never been one of them. Sure they are gonna use roll outs off of heavy run looks etc and predetermined primary progressions etc or even single concept ones with the QBs legs as the secondary option and tiered half field reads but any notion of tannehill can’t function as a full field progression based qb has never held water.

It's not a question of whether he needs them or can't function without them -- it's a question of how much they account for the increased performance and whether that's sustainable.

"The Guy wrote:

It's not a question of whether he needs them or can't function without them -- it's a question of how much they account for the increased performance and whether that's sustainable.

you are reaching. The ball goes where the coverage says it should go. Regardless of the concept/design.

this is not a limit the qb ask qb. I can literally run anything found in any nfl team/college concept you can put out there with tannehill and run it efficiently.

mariota? Not so much.

Here are a couple of interesting articles about Tannehill in 2019 and his future:

The better question is should the Titans pay him. As well as Tannehill has played this season, the answer is probably no. I say that because a lot of the success Tannehill is having is completely unsustainable.

Let’s start with his play under pressure. Before 2019, this was the one area where Tannehill could have really used some work. His inability to evade sacks (which is still a bit of a problem) and make plays under duress stood out on film and showed up in the numbers, as well. But guess what? That’s changed this season. Tannehill is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt under pressure, which leads the league, per Sports Info Solutions. Second place on the list? Dak Prescott … at 7.4.

In the three seasons Tannehill played before 2019, he had never averaged more than 6.6 yards per attempt under pressure. The big jump isn’t entirely surprising, as studies have shown that “under pressure” stats are volatile.

Via Pro Football Focus’ 2019 QB Annual:

Almost all of a quarterback’s season-long statistics are far less stable under pressure than they are when clean. This is understandable, since a quarterback’s ability is far more isolated when he is kept clean than when he is pressured. This also explains some outlier seasons for quarterbacks that were not eventually sustained. For example, Josh McCown’s 112.2 passer rating when pressured in 2013 was both more than 20 points higher than any other quarterback that year and a sign that regression was in order… Thus, when discussing a quarterback’s prowess when under pressure, one should therefore consider these statistics as descriptive, and not predictive.

So, no, Tannehill did not become the greatest under pressure quarterback of all-time overnight. Regression is coming.

Another area where Tannehill is thriving is the play-action passing game. Among quarterbacks with at least 40 play-action attempts, Tannehill leads the league in yards-per-attempt (13.4), passer rating (137.5) and only Drew Brees and Russell Wilson have a higher success rate (59.4%). The Titans are wisely leaning into this strategy.

Ryan Tannehill threw for 276 yards on play action today, the 2nd-most yards on play action in a game over the last 4 seasons.@ryantannehill1 now has 2 of the top 5 games in yards on play action since 2016, both in the past 3 weeks (Week 12: 218 yards).#TENvsOAK | #Titans pic.twitter.com/mOWwffJCoW

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 9, 2019

Here’s the problem: Play-action stats are even less predictive than under-pressure stats. Back to PFF:

Our analysis suggests that, other than positively-graded throws and PACR, almost nothing a quarterback does when using play action has any predictive power year-to-year.

Again, regression is coming.

A lot of those play-action passes are turning into deep shots, and that’s another area where Tannehill is getting the benefit of unsustainable luck, as Sharp Football Analysis’ Dan Pizzuta illustrated with this chart. You can find Tannehill all the way at the bottom…

Update on quarterback deep passes. Jacoby Brissett has taken the lead for high catchable rate without a lot of catches. pic.twitter.com/Rn4bIRzS2Z

— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) December 5, 2019

That chart shows that Tannehill has been the least accurate quarterback in the league on deep throws, but Titans receivers have caught EVERY catchable pass he’s thrown. As you can see with all the red on the chart … that’s not normal. That chart was made before the Raiders game, but Tennessee’s receivers continued to be perfect on deep targets, hauling in all three of Tannehill’s catchable deep targets.

Like Tannehill’s play under pressure or in the play-action passing game, this is not going to continue. And “this” is what the Titans would be paying for if they did give him a new contract. Occam’s Razor needs to be applied here. What’s more likely: That Tannehill turned into one of the league’s best quarterbacks overnight or the six-year sample of play is more representative of his true talent?

The answer is pretty obvious.

Now, as The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin points out, Tannehill has performed well in more stable metrics, as well. He’s been good from a clean pocket in 2019, which typically bodes well for the future. Then again, we’re dealing with a seven-game sample size and Tannehill’s clean-pocket performance in past seasons has been underwhelming. Since 2015, he’s one of only six quarterbacks who have produced a negative EPA from a clean pocket in two or more seasons. The rest of the names on that list: Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert, C.J. Beathard, Joe Flacco and Mariota. That isn’t good company.

I’ve always considered Tannehill an underrated quarterback, who was stuck in a bad situation in Miami. He’s solid in just about every facet of quarterback play and can look good in the right system, as we’re seeing now. But he does nothing overly well and will always be the product of what’s around him. What is that worth? That’s a tricky question, but the answer probably isn’t “$27 million.” If the Titans can work out a multi-year deal that allows them to bail at the first sign of trouble, then, by all means, do it. But if Tannehill’s camp is looking to cash in on this hot run on the open market (and it probably should) then a reset at the quarterback position is probably best.

Tannehill’s breakout season is eerily similar to Case Keenum’s breakout season in 2017. Keenum also thrived under pressure. He dominated in the play-action passing game. He had Stefon Diggs and Adam Theilen hauling in every deep pass he threw. The Vikings realized it was a fluke. John Elway fell for the mirage and gave him too much money.

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/12/ryan-tannehill-titans-franchise-qb-new-contract

The case for Tannehill's greatness
On every play, Next Gen Stats determines expected completion percentage based on a variety of factors such as the air yards of the pass, whether the quarterback was under pressure and the receiver's separation from defenders and the sideline. A full explanation of the model can be found here.

This season, the expected completion percentage on Tannehill's 203 throws is 63.4%. His actual completion percentage? 73.4%. That 10-point differential is his CPOE, the best in the league. In fact, it's actually the best of any quarterback since 2016, when Next Gen Stats was introduced.

This is a much better metric for measuring accuracy than traditional completion percentage, which has more than a few weaknesses in its ability to evaluate overall quarterback play.

So where is Tannehill having his success? He has found a sweet spot from 8 to 20 yards, where he has completed 49 of 60 passes (77.8%); an average quarterback would be expected to complete only 60%.

In this example below, with animation from Next Gen Stats, the pass to Corey Davis carries a 33% chance of a completion because of how Tannehill is pressured and the fact Davis has almost no separation. The veteran QB completes it anyway.

One thing to keep in mind with CPOE: Like nearly all quarterback statistics, it's a reflection of a combination of skill between the quarterback and his receivers. But with Tannehill, we have a convenient data point for additional context: Mariota's CPOE with the same team. And it wasn't pretty. His CPOE was minus-2.6% this season, in the company of other underperformers such as Jacoby Brissett and Andy Dalton.

Should we have seen this coming from Tannehill? I don't think so. In 2016, Tannehill actually recorded 5% in CPOE, but in 2018 -- he missed 2017 due to injury -- he fell to minus-1%. The 11-point year-over-year improvement by Tannehill is the largest by any quarterback in CPOE's young history, and again, that's not close.

One issue with CPOE is that while depth of target is factored into the expectation, it isn't factored into the value. In other words, consider that Drew Brees and Russell Wilson both have 5% CPOEs this season, but Wilson is averaging passes that are 3 yards further downfield. Wilson's 5% is worth more overall.

To account for this we can simply multiply the CPOE by the air yards on every pass beyond the line of scrimmage. If a 10-yard pass has a 60% of completion and is caught, the QB is credited with plus-4 completed air yards over expectation (CAYOE). If it goes incomplete, he's debited 6 CAYOE. If CPOE is a measure of accuracy, CAYOE is the value of that accuracy.

Until this past weekend, Tannehill trailed Wilson and Kirk Cousins in CAYOE per attempt -- a product of the Tennessee QB excelling in short and midrange.

But then Sunday happened, when Tannehill absolutely wrecked the Raiders. His performance included a 39-air yard pass to A.J. Brown with a 31% completion probability that ultimately went for a 91-yard touchdown. And now Tannehill leads CAYOE/A, too. He's averaging over an entire completed air yard more per pass attempt than an average quarterback.

The case against Tannehill's greatness
Before we paint Tannehill as the next Tom Brady, we need to look at the other side, too. And if you're wondering how Tannehill is managing to put all sorts of all-star numbers together while still sitting at 13th in Total QBR, it's because there is a part of his game that remains a major weakness: He takes too many sacks. Tannehill has been sacked on 10.1% of his dropbacks, the most by any qualifying quarterback in 2019.

To no surprise, he has the worst expected points added per dropback due to sacks of any quarterback. For what it's worth, Mariota was taking sacks at an even higher 12.8% rate, but Tannehill also led the league in sack rate in 2018.

The Titans actually rank ninth in Pass Block Win Rate (PBWR) this season, which for Tannehill is a big step up from the 23rd-ranked Miami unit he had in front of him last season. We've found previously that pass blocking matters, so it's reasonable to assign at least some of the credit for Tannehill's huge season to the offensive line -- though metrics such as CPOE and QBR both incorporate whether a quarterback is under pressure at time of throw to some degree.

The Titans' PBWR was actually better overall in the games Mariota started than the ones Tannehill has, though they are red-hot now: Over its past three games, Tennessee has recorded a PBWR of 82%, which is not only first in that span, but also the highest three-game stretch for any team this season. Tannehill has recorded double-digit CPOE games in those three contests.

Two more reasons Tannehill's season needs proper context:

• A large percentage of his expected points added, relative to other quarterbacks, has come when Tennessee's win probability is high enough or low enough that Total QBR is significantly down-weighting that production.

• Tannehill also has the benefit of playing in a system with a little more play-action, which is a good thing. He has run play-action on 30% of his dropbacks this season vs. 23% last season.

What does Tennessee do with Tannehill now?
And now we get to the tough question. It's great for Tennessee that Tannehill is playing well and could lead them to the playoffs. But when he hits the open market this offseason, they'll be left with a choice hinging on whether it's possible, at age 31, that this breakout is for real. Will this success continue?

We've mostly focused on Tannehill's play this season here. But we also have a lot more information on him. From 2012 to '18, Tannehill recorded a QBR of 49. That ranks 35th of 41 quarterbacks who qualify in that time period. Calling him mediocre prior to this season would probably be a misnomer. There have been occasional flashes, but in aggregate, for a starter, he's been bad. It seems rash not to weigh the years of data prior to this season in favor of a half-season of excellence.

And yet, this sudden burst of effectiveness has come along with a change of team. Perhaps a change in offense and life away from that miserable Dolphins offensive line was all he needed. We can't rule out the possibility the breakout is legitimate.

Pro Football Focus' Timo Riske found that a slightly different version of CPOE was found to have roughly the same linear correlation to a quarterback's next season EPA/P as EPA/P itself. Additionally, The Athletic's Ben Baldwin found that adding CPOE to EPA/P in a composite metric helped predict next season EPA/P.

Anecdotally, there are no great comparisons to Tannehill's CPOE improvement. Perhaps the best is Cousins from 2017-18, when he moved from Washington to Minnesota and increased his CPOE by nearly 5%. In 2019, Cousins has stepped it up by a couple more points. Mitchell Trubisky made a slightly larger jump from 2017-18 in CPOE -- but it was on the same team, and he has regressed in 2019.

So what should Titans general manager Jon Robinson do with this information? He has to weigh three options: Let Tannehill go and sign elsewhere, slap the franchise tag on him or sign him to a long-term deal. The first hardly seems like a good option, assuming Tannehill keeps up this level of play, because Tennessee would be left without a quarterback and the draft pick used to acquire him. Whatever placeholder it finds on the open market probably would have less upside than Tannehill.

The third option has potential value. If Tannehill is indeed a top-10 quarterback, then the Titans would presumably be locking him up for a below-market price while there's still uncertainty about his prospects. However, it also comes with substantial risk. The organization would be tethering itself to a quarterback who has a long history of poor play, even if he has played well in a Titans uniform.

The franchise tag, though, is the best option. The Titans can pay a hefty one-year price tag for the right to find out what they've got in Tannehill, without a long-term contract. With the tag, they can still pursue other QB options in the draft at the same time. This is the choice that makes the most sense. Tannehill has played well enough to entertain the possibility they have found something while keeping a healthy amount of skepticism about his actual prospects.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28277312/is-ryan-tannehill-breakout-real-why-advanced-stats-love-next

"Hoops wrote:

you are reaching. The ball goes where the coverage says it should go. Regardless of the concept/design.

this is not a limit the qb ask qb. I can literally run anything found in any nfl team/college concept you can put out there with tannehill and run it efficiently.

mariota? Not so much.

If rolling out was preferable to pocket passing, pocket passers wouldn't have a premium put on them, and QBs would roll out on every play.

Again, it's not that Tannehill can't do anything else. It's whether the increased performance is accounted for by something that isn't sustainable in the NFL, and if so by how much.

These are all questions any responsible GM should be asking himself when determining the future contract offered to Tannehill. The articles I posted above are providing the same kinds of questions and analyses.

"If rolling out was preferable to pocket passing, pocket passers wouldn't have a premium put on them, and QBs would roll out on every play.

Again, it's not that Tannehill can't do anything else. It's whether the increased performance is accounted for by something that isn't sustainable in the NFL, and if so by how much.

These are all questions any responsible GM should be asking himself when determining the future contract offered to Tannehill. The articles I posted above are providing the same kinds of questions and analyses."

LOL

Do you hear the "Beep...Beep...Beep..."

That's a Brinks truck...backing into the building in Nashville...delivering a ton of bags with RT's picture on 'em.

"The Guy wrote:

If rolling out was preferable to pocket passing, pocket passers wouldn't have a premium put on them, and QBs would roll out on every play.

Again, it's not that Tannehill can't do anything else. It's whether the increased performance is accounted for by something that isn't sustainable in the NFL, and if so by how much.

These are all questions any responsible GM should be asking himself when determining the future contract offered to Tannehill. The articles I posted above are providing the same kinds of questions and analyses.

I think it's definitely harder to stop a roll out from a player like Tannehill because even though he may predominantly move right, he is entirely capable of rolling to his left and making a play.

If he could only roll right I'd agree.

Here's an article that indicates the Titans were fourth in the league in pass blocking win rate in 2019.

Note however that as cbrad has cautioned many times, the league ranking is almost meaningless due to the low degree of variation in pass blocking win rate throughout the league. The average pass blocking win rate in the NFL in 2019 was 58.5%, and the standard deviation 5.89. Therefore the Titans, even though ranked fourth in the league, were less than a standard deviation (0.76) above the league average.

Also, the league-wide correlation between pass blocking win rate and passer rating in 2019?

A mere 0.28.

92.2% of the variance in passer rating throughout the league in 2019 is accounted for by things other than teams' pass blocking win rate.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27584726/nfl-pass-blocking-pass-rushing-rankings-2019-pbwr-prwr-leaderboard

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

I think it's definitely harder to stop a roll out from a player like Tannehill because even though he may predominantly move right, he is entirely capable of rolling to his left and making a play.

If he could only roll right I'd agree.

As soon as he rolls either direction, his likelihood of passing the ball to the other side of the field becomes extremely low, and the opposing defense consequently moves all of its defenders the same direction, leaving a comparatively lower number of passing targets matched up against a higher-than-normal number of defenders.

If that was difficult for opposing defenses to do as a function of not knowing the direction the QB will roll before the snap, I think you would have a point, but it isn't.

"The Guy wrote:

As soon as he rolls either direction, his likelihood of passing the ball to the other side of the field becomes extremely low, and the opposing defense consequently moves all of its defenders the same direction, leaving a comparatively lower number of passing targets matched up against a higher-than-normal number of defenders.

If that was difficult for opposing defenses to do as a function of not knowing the direction the QB will roll before the snap, I think you would have a point, but it isn't.

If defenses start shifting entirely to one side it can open up a throw to the other side of the field.

Granted it wont be an out route or something ridiculous, but Tannehill has the ability to stop plant and throw a deep post or go route back to the other side of the field.

I dont think its necessarily as easy as shifting your defense. It isnt like no tape exists already so if it were that simple I think it would be done already.

What a roll out really does is just force defenders to cover for longer. It allows a QB more time to read a zone and find a weak spot, so on.

I'm a firm believer that given enough time a WR should beat his man 100% of the time. So it really depends more to me on creating pressure than shifting coverage.

Adding on hold on while I edit lol

Edit: Also a rollout doesnt have to take away an entire side of the field. More often than not you arent rolling to the sideline but rather about a hash Mark's distance to create a new point in the pocket the defense cant attack as easily. Unless it's a wide roll that takes you to the sideline you arent necessarily cutting the field in half, more like cutting a quarter of it off really.

There’s nothing tannehills doing that isn’t sustainable. Now obviously leading the league in passer rating is a little mucb to ask yearly but in terms of the ask of the qb and the execution of the actual qb itself there is no reason to think that his play is destined to fall off the table.

none nada nilch. Frankly had he never gotten cheap shotted and shredded his knee and Miami not been largely incompetent personnel wise around the qb and gutted the roster last offseason even I’d say he’d be doing it in Miami.

The kid can play. I know what that tape says. And I know how to separate/id qb limitation from other things.

what’s completely bonkers to me is that other QBs can/do benefit from other things around the qb yet Ryan tannehill can’t. Never understood that.

"AGuyNamedAlex wrote:

I think it's definitely harder to stop a roll out from a player like Tannehill because even though he may predominantly move right, he is entirely capable of rolling to his left and making a play.

If he could only roll right I'd agree.

Additionally, if someone were to get out of the box score and stats breakdowns, and watched him play over the past month, they'd see PLENTY of tape of him rolling one direction and throwing back to the vacated side of the field...sometimes on the move without stopping to reset, throwing over 30/40 yards across his body...and they were ABSOLUTE DIMES!

This video, starting at 2:09, tell me how rolling right takes out the left side of the field?

"PhinFan1968 wrote:

This video, starting at 2:09, tell me how rolling right takes out the left side of the field?

It doesn’t but not all concepts have a delayed release back side built in either.