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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    2 vote(s)
    4.2%
  3. An average QB

    6 vote(s)
    12.5%
  4. An above average QB

    22 vote(s)
    45.8%
  5. An elite QB

    14 vote(s)
    29.2%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    8.3%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That almost never happens in a Super Bowl, however, obviously because in that game you’re talking about the utmost in team parity in the league.

    in fact that’s happened only once in recent history, when Seattle beat Denver, and that game had none of the features of the upcoming one. In that game Russell Wilson was a very highly-rated passer, coupled with one of the best pass defenses of all time, going against, at that time, a very low-rated passer in Peyton Manning.

    Those are indeed the ingredients of a blowout, but again those ingredients are almost never present in a Super Bowl, and they aren’t present in this one either.
     
  2. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Well I'm a little bit different opinion I think he can overcame some basic disadvantages, a couple of dropped passes here and there doesn't usually cause his game to fall apart and things like that. But he (at this point at least) isn't that generational talent that makes average teams look like world beaters. Mahomes is clearly that type of talent.

    I honestly don't have a problem with your opinion though. I just can't stand other's attempts to discredit everything he did for the year in and endless goal to sneak the word Average into every analysis.
     
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  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Again, here's the issue with that: there has been only one Super Bowl winner of the past 15 that has accomplished that with such a quarterback (described in the highlighted portion above) who wasn't on his rookie contract. And of course Tannehill isn't on his rookie contract and in fact may absorb a greater percentage of his team's salary cap next year than he ever has previously in his career.
    Once again, the fact that what I said above is true makes Tannehill in effect an average quarterback, because he needs the same team ingredients average QBs do to win a Super Bowl. That became obvious Sunday, when he needed an elite pass defense to keep pace with the "generational talent" you mentioned above, despite that he played about as well as he ever has historically in that kind of game himself.

    The fact that these generational talents exist, coupled with the rules of the game that make it an ultra-passing league, makes QBs like Tannehill in effect "average." It isn't "me" doing it.
     
  4. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    This is exactly what “The Guy” is doing. He thinks he’s onto something so he keeps harping on it.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 21, 2020
  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think it's pretty tough to bet against KC in this one. San Fran is a solid team and I like Jimmy G a lot...should be a good game.

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    He has been to an AFC championship game a total of 1 time, and this was his first time playing in the playoffs. Its a little early to say what we saw in the biggest game of his career is as good as he could expect.

    Brady last year was dragged through the playoffs by a superior team. What does your stats say about a QB rating of 106.5, 77.1, and 71.4 in the playoffs? So you essentially have a QB who is a generational player in name only.

    Now lets look at Mannings last super bowl run. 74.4, 90.1, and 56.5, again you have "generational talent" in name only.

    I'm sure there are more, but that was 2 off the top of my head in the last couple of years. Or are you going to say that them being who they are made it so stats no longer mattered?

    And you can't make the statement that Brady gave a team discount, cause that would mean any good QB that gives his team a discount is creating the same situation, which is exactly what I expect Tannehill to do in Tennessee.
     
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  7. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers are eliminated from the playoffs... We have Mahomes and Garroppolo in the SB.

    Mahomes is the best QB right now, but you cant tell me Garroppolo is better than Brees or Rodgers.

    So I think besides Mahomes and Brady no other QB can "uplift" a team on its shoulders.
     
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  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I'd go you one better, and say Mahomes is the only QB with the talent to win regardless, but looking at his arsenal of targets, it's not hard to understand why...he's a supreme talent, with the right players to throw to.

    Brady's done. His defense carried him this year...and when his defense regressed, they went 4-5, including playoffs.
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Certainly we can find exceptions to the rule. But the rule still applies and should inform teams' personnel strategies much more so than the exceptions to it.

    Here's the rule:

    Since 2004 there have been 15 Super Bowl winners and 330 playoff games (including Super Bowls) that involved a passer rating differential (165 games X two teams per game). The teams that won Super Bowls during that period had an average passer rating differential of +23.4 (standard deviation = 29.9) in their 46 playoff games. The teams that did not win Super Bowls during that period had an average passer rating differential of -3.8 (standard deviation = 38.8) in their 284 playoff games.

    Now, what's the best way to obtain a highly positive passer rating differential in the playoffs consistent with that of the Super Bowl winners above? Of course that's by 1) having one of the league's best QBs, and/or 2) having one of the league's best pass defenses.

    If you don't have #1, you'd better have #2 (and vice-versa), or you're left praying to be an exception to the rule.

    And that's essentially the upshot from the game Sunday between Tennessee and Kansas City. Tannehill isn't #1 (one of the league's best QBs), and so Tennessee needs #2 (one of the league's best pass defenses).

    Of course they can pray they become an exception to the rule, but again that shouldn't be what teams base their personnel strategies on. They should go with what's probable, not improbable.

    (As always I invite @cbrad to critique the work above and point us in a different direction statistically speaking, if he's willing and has the time, if I've erred in my approach.)
     
  10. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I think the issue is you cant just run through QB until you have an absolutely elite player.

    Not many of those guys exist. How many have even been drafted in the last 20 years that reached a level so elite they can single handedly carry a team?

    The reality is you kind of have to attempt to build with what you have. NFL GM didnt get their jobs because they are idiots.

    There has to be some reason teams tend to stick with "above average" for a good while before starting over.
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's certainly a good point, and I think the league is in flux with regard to how it's dealing with the fact that 1) the player that league success revolves around is 2) scarce. I think we're going to see tanking become far more common, for example, though that personnel strategy isn't yet widely accepted or practiced.
     
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  12. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    After posting I started to think part of that may be pressure to win and keep your job. It's hard as a GM to justify tanking for as long as it takes to land an elite QB which could be quite a while considering most drafts dont have one of that level.

    Yes a long term goal of the Superbowl is great, but even a perennial playoff team is putting extra value and revenue into the Franchise/Owners pocket.

    So looking at it from the perspective of a GM, for the sake of my job maybe I cant use that strategy. Of course if the owner is down for it, sure, but still.
     
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  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, no one wants career suicide.
     
  14. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Teams scoring 35+ points in the playoffs, since 1990, win over 90% of the time. But Tannehill, all by his lonesome, is supposed to overcome and carry his team to a win...or he's average.

    Makes sense.
     
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  15. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I don’t. Give me San Fran. The legit run game and defense.

    I will take the risk that the San Fran d travels in this one. And there is risk there cause I don’t think they are quite as formidable on the road.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
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  16. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Who are the QBs in the league who indisputably can carry a team?
    - Mahomes
    - Wilson
    - Brees
    - Rodgers

    The jury is out on Lamar Jackson.
    Some people argue that Brady is a “system QB” in that he performs at his best when he has smart disciplined offensive team mates who do their job.
    Cam Newton can do it, but doesn’t do it reliably.

    I won't go through the rest of the list, but it is fair to say that on a good day most of the QBs in the league can carry their team, but there are only 4 QBs most people will agree can carry an inferior team with a degree of regularity (with a small asterisk against Mahomes because he hasn’t been on an inferior team yet so he hasn’t had to do it)

    when you consider that quality starting QBs are now regularly playing 15+ year careers you are looking at one “can carry his team” QBs entering the league every 4 or 5 years on average. Unless you actually have one of those QBs already that means you are competing with about 28 other teams to identify and draft such a QB.

    Saying that you should identify and draft such a QB ignores
    1) They are hard to identify. Everyone in the NFL had a chance to draft Brees in the first round and passed. Everyone in the NFL had 2 chances to draft Wilson and passed. 23 teams had a chance to draft Rodgers and passed. Mahomes was “only” the number 10 pick, pretty well every team had the opportunity to trade up to take him if they believed in him, yet only the Chiefs did.
    2) If you do find one you may not be in a position to draft him.
    3) If you do draft him his career may be derailed by bad coaching/injury as shown by Brees in San Diego.

    What happens if you are not one of the 4 or 5 franchises without such a QB? Rolling over and playing dead until you find “the guy” isn’t a good approach. Build a solid team with good coaches and make do with the QB you have is what 80% of the NFL has to do.
     
  17. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I’m not sure Mahomes can be put in that category yet. I think it could be headed there but umm that damn kc scheme on offense is top shelf and there is a real effect that kelce primary and hill secondary have on defenses.

    We gonna learn a few more things after the super bowl. Once that front 4 shows up for the 9ers.
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad . Club Member

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    I think it's pretty clear Mahomes is in the category of QB's that can "carry a team". He's already demonstrated that many times, and it's not like he has to win the SB for that to be evident. Marino could "carry a team" and never won the SB.

    lol.. the modern day Marino meets SF again in the SB.

    btw.. you guys heard of the KC fan 'Bad Luck Chuck'? Every KC playoff game he's gone to (and stayed in the stadium) since he started going in 2017 they've lost, every one he didn't go to they've won, and a video he tweeted of himself leaving the stadium during the Houston game to help the team when KC was down 21-0 went viral because KC stormed back to win once he left lol. Well.. he just came out and said he's going to Miami for the SB, though it's not yet clear if he'll be in the stadium itself.

    Mahomes is great, and that SF defense is really good.. but there might be another factor to consider here lol.
     
  19. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Even Mariota knows whats up.. after the loss he tells Tannehill "you ll be back here again"



    Nothing but respect. Mariota has always been a class guy. Hopefully he does good in a diff team.
     
  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    No no no, remember what he shall not be named essentially said? Mahomes did it all by himself. He had no...

    Running game
    Powerhouse offensive line
    Elite receivers
    Powerhouse defense

    Mahomes did it ALLLLLLL by himself! Hill and Kelce are just straight up garbage average receivers/TE
     
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  21. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Mahomes isnt going to have it easy as he did against the TEN defense where he had all the time in the world to throw. That 9ers defense is deadly.

    This is going to be a fun game. Cant wait to see how Mahomes performs against a defense like this
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's what happened when Mahomes and the Chiefs faced the two best pass defenses in the league in 2019 in terms of passer rating surrendered -- the Patriots and Ravens. The Patriots were 2.95 z-scores better than league average in passer rating surrendered, and the Ravens were 1.38 z-scores better. Compare that to the 49ers who were only 0.79 z-scores better than league average in passer rating surrendered:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201912080nwe.htm

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201909220kan.htm

    The overall passer rating for those games for Mahomes was 106.9.

    Now let's take a look at what Jimmy Garoppolo did this year against pass defenses similar to the Chiefs'. The Chiefs were 1.02 z-scores better than league average in passer rating surrendered in 2019 (i.e., they were actually better than the 49ers).

    The 49ers played Baltimore (z-score = 1.38), Pittsburgh (1.14), Green Bay twice (0.99), and Seattle twice (0.51). Garoppolo's overall passer rating in those six games was 97.3.

    So what we've done here is confine the analysis of Mahomes's performance to the best two pass defenses in the league, while analyzing Garoppolo's performance as a function of a good bit greater variation in the opposing passing defenses he faced.

    Nonetheless, Mahomes's overall passer rating in those games was 9.6 points higher than Garoppolo's.

    In the past 15 Super Bowls the passer rating differential for the winner has ranged from -43.9 to +45. The first finding of note is that the teams on the positive side of the passer rating differential are 11-4 in those games (73% wins). There have been 13 of those 15 Super Bowls with passer rating differentials in the neighborhood of what might be anticipated between Mahomes and Garoppolo (based on the above). Teams with a passer rating differential of +7 or greater are 9-4 in those games.

    So, there is certainly a chance the 49ers can win this game based on Garoppolo and Mahomes's anticipated performance, although they shouldn't be the favorite based on that. The Chiefs should be the favorite if you're basing what to expect in the game on that information alone.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Please point out where that was said.
     
  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    LOL, I did read about that! Great story...stupid of course...but great story!
     
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  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Its the logical end point of your entire argument going back to 2012.
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Props to Mariota and man did Tannehill look disappointed. He will do everything he can to be back. He understands how difficult it is. There are some very good teams competing for this. The Chiefs, Ravens, Patriots, Texans, Bills all have something very positive to build on. Depending on the QB situation, the Steelers and Colts may be back as well and who knows if the Browns will get out of their own way. The Chiefs, in particular, because of the lack of competition in their division my be hosting playoff games for the foreseeable future.
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Let me state my argument and I'll respectfully ask you to restate it the way you understand it so we can determine whether you're hearing it accurately.

    The correlation between win percentage and adjusted (to 2019) passer rating differential in the 256 team seasons since 2012 (the timeframe you mentioned) is 0.815. The correlation between point differential and passer rating differential is 0.867.

    That means 66% of the variance in win percentage and 75% of the variance in point differential since 2012 in the NFL has been associated with passer rating differential. Obviously that means a great deal of the goal of the game (i.e., winning) revolves around how well teams pass the ball and how well they defend the pass.

    One way teams can improve how they perform in that regard is by having one of the league's best quarterbacks, because the league's best quarterbacks vary in their passer ratings from year to year at a level significantly higher than that of the league's poorer quarterbacks. Obviously if your quarterback's passer rating varies from year to year at a higher level, then your team stands a better chance of having a greater passer rating differential.

    Teams can also improve their offensive passer ratings by assembling greater talent around the quarterback, but given the finding above with regard to quarterbacks, that approach is unlikely to yield the same degree of improvement in passer rating as would having a better quarterback. This is obviously why teams clamor for quarterbacks more so than for any other offensive or defensive player on the field. The quarterback can increase a team's probability of winning more so than any other player on the field.

    Another way teams can improve how they perform with regard to passer rating differential is by better defending against the pass. But like with assembling offensive talent around the quarterback in the effort to increase passer rating differential, that likely requires a conglomeration of defensive players. Acquiring just a single stellar player on defense (an edge rusher for example) is highly unlikely to have as much an effect on passer rating differential as is acquiring a stellar quarterback.

    I hope this helps with understanding of why the game revolves around the pass, and why teams stand to help themselves in that area most by acquiring one of the league's best quarterbacks.

    None of the above is at all inconsistent with how teams approach the acquisition of personnel in today's game in terms of resources allotted. So either the entire league is doing it wrong, or what I've written above is correct. I'm afraid you'll have to pick one.
     
  28. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    I dunno man... I just look at their match ups. Bosa is def having a MVP year, plus they got some studs of LBs, and a secondary that is better than the Titans. This will be a fun game.
     
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  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    Which argument do you want me to regurgitate back to you?

    - The one, in 2013, where you tried as hard as you are now, to get people to believe, Tannehill was holding Hartline and Bess back?
    - The one where you tried to tell everyone the amount of TDs scored by a WR, is irrelevant?
    - The one where you tried to tell everyone we cannot know if Tannehill's rookie numbers would have been better with better WR talent than Hartline, Bess and effing Nananee?
    - The one where you tried to tell everyone that Tannehill's QB rating would not have gone up if Hartline or Bess had gotten more TDs?
    - The one where you claim Thill isn't clutch?
    - The one where you claim he sucks in the playoffs?

    You literally at one time claimed, Hartline and Bess carried Tannehill in his rookie year. Carried him.

    EDIT: Aaaaaaaannnnnnd I'm blocked now.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2020
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  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I loved the Bess/Hartline argumen.
     
  31. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    No joke, the year we had Nananee on our team, I'm playing Madden, I take a friggen knee and he somehow got seriously injured on the boundary.

    I was like...wow...hes just as bad here lol
     
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  32. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Probably the worst reciever to ever make it to third on a roster.

    2012 has to be the worst group if receivers in Dolphin history
     
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  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    I bet they rank pretty high on worst in the NFL history too.
     
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  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Tennessee pretty well went for 3 man rush and 8 in coverage as their base defense against the Chiefs. I understand why they did that because Mahomes has been deadly against blitzers this year, but Mahomes just kept going through his progressions until he found someone open.
     
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  35. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    :sidelol:
     
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  36. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    :sidelol:
     
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  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I want to laugh too, but apparently I'm blocked again. Lol
     
  38. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    I am too and I am barely part of this conversation.
     
  39. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    He blocked me too.
     
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  40. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Good read.

     
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