Ryan Tannehill

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Add me to that mix Tony. I was beating that same drum and blasted for it.

We had a GOOD quarterback in Tannehill and never gave him the support he needed to be successful

He was just as successful for the Dolphins during the two, four-game stretches in 2014 and 2016/2017 I mentioned above. The statistics in the post you quoted don't meaningfully distinguish Tannehill's past four games from those other two stretches of four games.

"The Guy wrote:

You'll both have to help me understand how an offensive line that, according to you, was so bad that it surrendered a significantly greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure -- over the course of five consecutive NFL seasons -- was at the same time no worse than the average team in the league at surrendering pressure in general.

See if you can put together an explanation for that that's internally consistent.

Yeah, any OL that surrenders more "jailbreak" pressure will also surrender more pressure in general. There's no plausible mechanism for that not to be the case. Furthermore, you could probably model the percent of "jailbreak" pressure fairly well by treating the probability that any player on the OL makes a mistake as independent of the probability that any other player will make a mistake, since mistakes are made by individuals. And that would mean the probability of "jailbreak" pressure is just a calculation of joint probability, which means you could probably infer the distribution of pressure due to 1, 2 or 3 players from the overall pressure statistic.

Can't test that directly yet, but I bet it's a good approximation.

Which brings us to another important point: people claiming Tannehill had more "jailbreak" pressure than most other teams aren't actually providing any evidence for it. It's all assumption based on watching primarily the Dolphins OL, which I agree was bad. But this season has been interesting for me regarding OL play because I am watching more games by other teams, and man.. there are a LOT of teams that allow tons of this "jailbreak" pressure. Dolphins don't look at all special with regards to the percent of "jailbreak" pressure when you watch the rest of the league. Lots of QB's have to keep scrambling around to avoid it.

"resnor wrote:

It's been explained ad nauseum. At this point if you don't understand the point, there's no way to explain it. But I'll try with a simple example.

QB 1 takes pressure on one snap, from one defender, resulting in a sack. QB 2 takes simultaneous pressure from 3 defenders, resulting in a sack. Stats would tell us that both QBs faced the same percent of pressure on dropbacks, and had a similar sack%. But in reality, they did not have the same pressure, despite your stats not showing that.

I don't think it's that as much as a combination of two things-

#1- Tannehill wouldn't hear/see pressure coming from his sides like a typical QB should. He stays laser-focused downfield.

#2- The biggest problems we faced in terms of pressure was a LB coming through the B gap untouched. The line didn't block it and RT didn't see/hear it coming.

I would believe that the pressures were at an average rate, but Tannehill can't sense that pressure and when someone comes untouched through that B gap...it's going to be bad news all around. He doesn't step up in the pocket because he doesn't know he's about to be leveled...so to correct that either you don't play him or you get faster, more agile guards that are solid in pass protection. We didn't do either

"Phins_to_Win wrote:

Just to add to this, he has been a fun QB to watch this season as well. That might have more to do with the lack of stress since the end result doesn't matter as much to me. But, to me, it feels like he is loose and he is throwing darts. He is actually having fun challenging the defenses he plays. I'm no QB guru, nor am I anywhere near as football smart as some of these coaches, but it feels like the coaches here got in his head, and he needed to get to a team that would be willing to let him play his ball. IF this is Tannehill ball this is what we should have wanted the entire time here.

We had it in 2016 before he got injured. Then the Tanny haters went on a full blast get rid of him campaign before he's recovered from his injury because once he recovers we'll never be able to get rid of him. Even though he played last year it always takes two years to fully recover from his type of injury

"adamprez2003 wrote:

We had it in 2016 before he got injured. Then the Tanny haters went on a full blast get rid of him campaign before he's recovered from his injury because once he recovers we'll never be able to get rid of him. Even though he played last year it always takes two years to fully recover from his type of injury

He played no differently, statistically speaking, during that period of time in 2016 than he did in the same number of games (4 through 16) in 2014.

"Drizzy wrote:

This is ridiculous. If Ross should fire Grier over anything it’s for not drafting Lamar Jackson.

It's not just for that. But being told we need to tank for Tua or some other QB and then winning games and destroying the tank, being told to get rid of young budding superstars like Minkah and tunsil and then not tanking for number one pick again. The tanking of the season was grier's idea from what I understand. Getting rid of Tannehill because we need a franchise hall of fame QB was Griers idea also. If TaNnehill gets the Titans into the playoffs the whole reason for tanking in the first is shot to shit and then why would you keep the Moron That can't identify Qb talent on his very own roster?! This is the moron you're going to allow to pick our franchise savior next gen QB?! No you fire him and get someone who won't waive a tannehill, won't blow a 2nd on a Rosen bust and might actually be able to identify QB talent

"adamprez2003 wrote:

If TaNnehill gets the Titans into the playoffs the whole reason for tanking in the first is shot to **** and then why would you keep the Moron That can't identify Qb talent on his very own roster?! This is the moron you're going to allow to pick our franchise savior next gen QB?! No you fire him and get someone who won't waive a tannehill, won't blow a 2nd on a Rosen bust and might actually be able to identify QB talent

Tannehill's getting the Titans into the playoffs won't mean much if he continues to play the way he has throughout his career, because that pattern of play doesn't readily translate to a playoff run. Lots of average QBs can get their teams to the playoffs -- and you can argue that he largely got the Dolphins there in 2016 -- but only a fairly small percentage of playoff runs and Super Bowl wins are commandeered by average QBs.

Now, if he continues playing for the rest of the year like he has during the past four games, and gets the Titans through the playoffs and to the Super Bowl with that caliber of play, well then you'll certainly have a strong argument for what you're saying.

"The Guy wrote:

He was just as successful for the Dolphins during the two, four-game stretches in 2014 and 2016/2017 I mentioned above. The statistics in the post you quoted don't meaningfully distinguish Tannehill's past four games from those other two stretches of four games.

Actually they do. We drafted Tannehill and expected a lot from him...and he did indeed produce. Tannehill owns 9 Miami Dolphins franchise records, eclipsing the great Dan Marino and yet he is still the fall guy for the team rather than placing the fault on oh say...Joe Philbin, Adam Gase or any of the other members of the coaching staff that made STUPID calls and when they didn’t pan out, blame Tannehill instead.

I’m about to make a prediction...Tennessee is going to the playoffs, Tannehill will be named the Comeback Player of the Year and Dolphins fans are going to be crying that we lost him

Let's say the average %of pressure on dropbacks in the league is 10%. Three dolphins could have the same % of pressure or drop back, but that doesn't tell you if it is one defender, or multiple defenders. That's the point. You guys act like the stats tell you that, but they don't. I remember seeing Tannehill being pressured from both ends and up the middle more often than not. I don't regularly see the same thing when I watch other teams.

"adamprez2003 wrote:

It's not just for that. But being told we need to tank for Tua or some other QB and then winning games and destroying the tank, being told to get rid of young budding superstars like Minkah and tunsil and then not tanking for number one pick again. The tanking of the season was grier's idea from what I understand. Getting rid of Tannehill because we need a franchise hall of fame QB was Griers idea also. If TaNnehill gets the Titans into the playoffs the whole reason for tanking in the first is shot to **** and then why would you keep the Moron That can't identify Qb talent on his very own roster?! This is the moron you're going to allow to pick our franchise savior next gen QB?! No you fire him and get someone who won't waive a tannehill, won't blow a 2nd on a Rosen bust and might actually be able to identify QB talent

Adam, I truly believe that the main reason Tannehill was traded was due to the salary cap. Miami paid him a HUGE sum of money and if you’re going to rebuild, you have to trim the fat

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Tannehill owns 9 Miami Dolphins franchise records, eclipsing the great Dan Marino

A case study in what happens when you don't adjust stats for era. I mean.. Tannehill's career passer rating is 87.8 while Marino's is 86.4, so if you don't adjust for era it's pretty clear: Tannehill > Marino using stats right?

Yeah.. adjust for era and Tannehill is average while Marino is one of the best ever, which IMO is a far more accurate representation.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

Adam, I truly believe that the main reason Tannehill was traded was due to the salary cap. Miami paid him a HUGE sum of money and if you’re going to rebuild, you have to trim the fat

Fair enough but he was coming off the books after this season so it wasn't going to help us anyway. Saving money this year is to the benefit of Ross not the Dolphins.

Maybe we're going to try to build a SB team while having a QB under a rookie contract like Seattle did way back when. Build a crazy defense, good running game and simple but effective passing game and do it quickly before the rookie QB can negotiate his first contract

"The Guy wrote:

Tannehill's getting the Titans into the playoffs won't mean much if he continues to play the way he has throughout his career, because that pattern of play doesn't readily translate to a playoff run. Lots of average QBs can get their teams to the playoffs -- and you can argue that he largely got the Dolphins there in 2016 -- but only a fairly small percentage of playoff runs and Super Bowl wins are commandeered by average QBs.

Now, if he continues playing for the rest of the year like he has during the past four games, and gets the Titans through the playoffs and to the Super Bowl with that caliber of play, well then you'll certainly have a strong argument for what you're saying.

Fair enough. Let's say he has to win in the playoffs. At least get to the AFC Championship. LOTS OF GOOD QBs haven't been to the SB (rivers, stafford, etc). This way it proves he can win in the playoffs and if you can win in the playoffs you can win a SB

"The Guy wrote:

You'll both have to help me understand how an offensive line that, according to you, was so bad that it surrendered a significantly greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure -- over the course of five consecutive NFL seasons -- was at the same time no worse than the average team in the league at surrendering pressure in general.

See if you can put together an explanation for that that's internally consistent.

My best answer is teams attack weaknesses at opportune times. Having three weak offensive linemen may not result in regular pressure at an insane rate, but the inability to deal with the defense attacking that spot in certain situations absolutely creates increased chaos in times where you need to convert.

Teams also have different weaknesses along the line. Having just a bad RT may result in the same pressure % as an average LG and RT but the pressure would be less predictable and thus harder to deal with generally in the second case.

When the pressure can come from any and all angles you lose that small bit of predictability the QB has.

Its also not addressing the fact that the ability of the OL often dictates how many additional blockers you leave in at RB/TE which also reduces the amount of outlets a QB has to dump the ball off. So there is hidden data here about how each team attempted to protect their QB that makes it slightly incomplete.

Maybe some of the teams close to us used Max Protect schemes which improved their overall %. Maybe we used Max Protect schemes more and gave up the same %. See what I'm saying?

In other words...the data isnt wrong, it's just incomplete and not taking things into account that youd see watching each game. It's more of a starting point than a finished product.

If I needed an overview of the ability of each QB to deal with pressure I'd absolutely use that list as a starting point. I'd just go further into detail when looking at specific players and teams situations.
Basically what you're doing is saying "This is the rule and there cant be exceptions" but we all know there are tons of exceptions and possible circumstances.

Also I dont think your logic is wrong, its a strong logical argument actually and it holds up when looking at the league overall.

"The Guy wrote:

You'll both have to help me understand how an offensive line that, according to you, was so bad that it surrendered a significantly greater percentage of "jailbreak" pressure -- over the course of five consecutive NFL seasons -- was at the same time no worse than the average team in the league at surrendering pressure in general.

See if you can put together an explanation for that that's internally consistent.

You have a very narrow view of things. Your take is binary.

You are arguing as if pass blocking is one single action that never differs so a person is either always good or always bad at it.

I mean I legit don’t even know how to explain the concept to you.

Let’s say X team has a terrible left guard. He gets beat a lot. When he gets beat that means pressure is coming through his space. But let’s say the left tackle is decent and keep his guy engaged while also helping the guard. Even if that little bit of effort delays the pressure by a single second or gets the rusher off balance, then the QB has a chance to escape or sidestep.

OR

Let’s say the team runs the ball more so the defense can’t tee up.

OR

Let’s say the QB is allowed to audible based on defensive looks.

I mean there’s numerous ways these numbers can happen.

"resnor wrote:

Let's say the average %of pressure on dropbacks in the league is 10%. Three dolphins could have the same % of pressure or drop back, but that doesn't tell you if it is one defender, or multiple defenders. That's the point. You guys act like the stats tell you that, but they don't. I remember seeing Tannehill being pressured from both ends and up the middle more often than not. I don't regularly see the same thing when I watch other teams.

If multiple defenders are reaching the quarterback significantly more often than for the average team, that suggests a team has significantly weaker pass protection than the average team. How then does such a team keep its quarterback's pocket clean just as often as the average team?

"The Guy wrote:

You're answering the question of whether "jailbreak" pressure on the quarterback simply exists. I don't dispute that it exists.

The question, however, is how an offensive line, over a five consecutive year span, can surrender that kind of "jailbreak" pressure at a significantly greater rate than the average team, while at the same time keeping its quarterback's pocket clean just as often as the average team.

How exactly does that happen?

First you found one stat that makes it look like the O-line was average here and now you keep hanging your arguments off of that concept. However if you go to footballoutsiders website here is there rankings for pass protection:

2018 - 31
2016 - 21
2015 - 24
2014 - 19
2013 - 30

If the line was keeping the pocket clean as much as an average line, then I would expect their ranking to gravitate towards center of the pack in ranking. That is not what you get from the average of his line play.

So how does a team give up the same amount of pressures as an average team but the pass protection is ranked so poorly? Well one way is that you give up pressure to teams that are rushing fewer defenders. So if the opponent rushes 4 and gets to the QB in the same amount of time as a team that rushes 6, what would be the expected result on QB? I mean in this scenario you have the same outcome you are looking at, both teams are getting pressure, but one of those pressures is much much worse.

I'm sure there are other metrics that can effect the overall rating of the Pass protection, but my point is they aren't average, so making any claim that Tannehill had an average anything from that line here is flat out wrong.

"Phins_to_Win wrote:

First you found one stat that makes it look like the O-line was average here and now you keep hanging your arguments off of that concept. However if you go to footballoutsiders website here is there rankings for pass protection:

2018 - 31
2016 - 21
2015 - 24
2014 - 19
2013 - 30

For the record Titans are currently ranked 16th in pass protection, which is FINALLY an average line.

If the line was keeping the pocket clean as much as an average line, then I would expect their ranking to gravitate towards center of the pack in ranking. That is not what you get from the average of his line play.

So how does a team give up the same amount of pressures as an average team but the pass protection is ranked so poorly? Well one way is that you give up pressure to teams that are rushing fewer defenders. So if the opponent rushes 4 and gets to the QB in the same amount of time as a team that rushes 6, what would be the expected result on QB? I mean in this scenario you have the same outcome you are looking at, both teams are getting pressure, but one of those pressures is much much worse.

I'm sure there are other metrics that can effect the overall rating of the Pass protection, but my point is they aren't average, so making any claim that Tannehill had an average anything from that line here is flat out wrong.

You can't determine deviation from the mean with league ranks.

cbrad did a good job of explaining that here:

https://www.thephins.com/posts/3217584/

"The Guy wrote:

You can't determine deviation from the mean with league ranks.

But you can determine average based on a single stat picked out of all of the available stats? Damn it, I suck at statistics...

"Phins_to_Win wrote:

But you can determine average based on a single stat picked out of all of the available stats? Damn it, I suck at statistics...

Certainly if you have the frequency of pressure experienced by every quarterback in the league for whom there is five consecutive years of data, you can easily determine an average frequency of pressure experienced by those quarterbacks and then calculate how much, if at all, any single quarterback deviates from that average.

"The Guy wrote:

Certainly if you have the frequency of pressure experienced by every quarterback in the league for whom there is five consecutive years of data, you can easily determine an average frequency of pressure experienced by those quarterbacks and then calculate how much, if at all, any single quarterback deviates from that average.

So you don't care if a team has to use 4 players, 6 players, 11 players, 11 plus the mascot to get to the QB and cause that pressure. As long as its pressure you have figured out average? So you actually believe all the other things collected about the O-line can just be thrown out?

Statistically speaking if we were a truly average offensive line what is the likely hood that we would constantly end that far out of deviation from the ranking of pass protection, and not have that ranking actually mean anything? Seems like flip of the coin if we were 15-17 but it would get WAY more unlikely as we landed further and further away from it, but always on the same side.

"Phins_to_Win wrote:

So you don't care if a team has to use 4 players, 6 players, 11 players, 11 plus the mascot to get to the QB and cause that pressure. As long as its pressure you have figured out average? So you actually believe all the other things collected about the O-line can just be thrown out?

The more players an opposing team needs to apply pressure on the quarterback, the better a team's frequency of pressure surrendered should be.

By the same token, the fewer players an opposing team needs to apply pressure on the quarterback, the worse a team's frequency of pressure surrendered should be.

If a team is often surrendering pressure on its quarterback in the face of a mere four rushers, then that team should be among the league's worst in overall frequency of pressure surrendered. Yet that isn't what we see with the 2012-2016 Dolphins.

"The_Dark_Knight wrote:

I’m about to make a prediction...Tennessee is going to the playoffs, Tannehill will be named the Comeback Player of the Year and Dolphins fans are going to be crying that we lost him

Bold prediction, all things considered. Tannehill's sack percentage is better than Mariota's and he's certainly an upgrade as a passer, but Mariota knee-capped them with loses leading them to a 2-4 record to start the season.

The Titans are currently 5-5 after going 3-1 since the QB change, but still have to play the Colts with Brissett back, Jags with Foles back, Saints, Raiders, and the Texans twice. Have to find 4 or 5 wins in there.

Certainly doable, but they only have a slim margin for losses.

If the OL get's its act together and stops the bone headed plays (Lewan had three stupid penalties alone against the Chiefs), the receivers stop the drops, and they continue to feed Henry, then they could do it as long as Henry stays healthy and the defense holds up.

"The Guy wrote:

The more players an opposing team needs to apply pressure on the quarterback, the better a team's frequency of pressure surrendered should be.

By the same token, the fewer players an opposing team needs to apply pressure on the quarterback, the worse a team's frequency of pressure surrendered should be.

If a team is often surrendering pressure on its quarterback in the face of a mere four rushers, then that team should be among the league's worst in overall frequency of pressure surrendered. Yet that isn't what we see with the 2012-2016 Dolphins.

If you can average the same level of pressure rushing 4 as you can against most teams rushing 6 you might rush 4 all day long and feast on the QB having to make quick decisions. IF on the other hand you can't get pressure on a QB with 4 you will implement schemes and blitzes that makes it possible to still maintain an average number of pressures on the QB in a game, while trying to disguise the 5th and 6th man of pressure.

My point is you are drawing absolutes that aren't absolutes, its up to the defensive coach in that scenario.

I'm not sure why we are going back and fourth on this point. You don't actually believe that the O-line was average/good while Tannehill was here do you?

"cbrad wrote:

A case study in what happens when you don't adjust stats for era. I mean.. Tannehill's career passer rating is 87.8 while Marino's is 86.4, so if you don't adjust for era it's pretty clear: Tannehill > Marino using stats right?

Yeah.. adjust for era and Tannehill is average while Marino is one of the best ever, which IMO is a far more accurate representation.

Franchise records... not stats or passer rating.

No one said he was a better QB than Marino, just that he has a large number of franchise records.

Dolphins franchise records
Most passing completions in a single season 392 (2014)
Most passing completions in a rookie season 282 (2012)
Highest completion percentage, career 62.2% (2012-2016)
Highest completion percentage in a single season 66.4% (2014)
Most passing yards in a rookie season 3,294 (2012)
Most passing attempts in a rookie season 484 (2012)
Longest rush by a quarterback 48 yards (2013)
Longest rush by a rookie quarterback 31 yards (2012)
Most consecutive pass completions 25 (2015)