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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.9%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.3%
  4. An above average QB

    37 vote(s)
    54.4%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    23.5%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.9%
  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You're acting like pressure stats are acceptable in that case but not in Miami. They're not that good stats regardless of the year. Doesn't matter though. They're still informative and you go with what you have WITHOUT cherry picking.
     
  2. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    No offence to anybody but why are people still debating about a 2 year tennese titan?The ship has sailed.
     
    Irishman and King Felix like this.
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Totall agree. I'm just responding to attacks on my position, but Tannehill is a Titan not a Dolphin. I don't wish him well at all regardless of the debate here. He didn't do anything for us in Miami and he's now on a team that's a competitor of ours for the foreseeable future. I'd rather see him and every competing QB fail than succeed, though once we're out of the playoffs I do start to root for other teams and players, but ONLY then.
     
  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The stats are fine in both cases. It is the interpretation of the stats that is the issue. I watched the games in Miami. I saw what the OL was doing (or not doing in the case of blocking). In reality, the correct conclusion that should be drawn is that the Dolphins pass offense in year XYZ was less efficient when the defense achieved pressure. Period. You want to conclude (without evidence) that the lack of efficiency was due to some deficiency in how Tannehill handles pressure. I was one of the people (on Finheaven) that heavily researched the play of the OL at that time. I watched film and found numerous independent, professionally written articles that clearly put most of the blame on the OL. Moreover, the majority of the linemen that were brought in didn't last long and didn't perform better elsewhere either.

    Let me ask you a serious question. How will you respond to a poster that is dismissing Tua 4 or 5 years from now because of his play this season? At what point do you say "Dude, that is is the past and largely explainable by the circumstances"? I'm guessing you respond that way far quicker than you would with Tannehill. I won't have to change my approach.
     
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  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    It is not about Tannehill. It is about being right. We were right, they were wrong. Period.
     
  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    As with Tannehill my view of Tua will be completely determined by his stats after about 3 years, certainly 4. Rookie years count once you have large enough sample size. My approach is guaranteed to be constant.
     
    Etrius24 likes this.
  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Weren't you already making "team carrying claims" about Tua based on one game? Hell, it was one play......
     
    resnor likes this.
  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It wasn't one play. Tua repeatedly led us to scores when Murray couldn't be stopped.

    And I've already made it clear that what I see on film is the basis for predictions I'm making as to how he turns out as a QB. In the end though it's career stats that's the best indicator of how good a QB actually is, and after about 3-4 years the sample size is large enough to switch over to the stats-based approach.
     
  9. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Just let it go.He is gone and not coming back.They should close the post
     
    cbrad likes this.
  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah I think that's a good suggestion. There's too little value to debating Tannehill now.

    OK I'm bowing out of this thread.
     
  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Disagreements from people who probably haven't seen 5 full Tennessee games over the past two seasons. I can live with that.
     
    resnor likes this.
  12. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    My take is this, and it will represent my last post in this thread.

    Tannehill ALWAYS showed improvement in his game. It may have been small chunks, but he steadily improved his game EVERY year he was in Miami. It was the #1 reason I backed him so hard. Anybody who didn't see the improvement wasn't watching...that simple. I'm no QB guru, but I saw it.

    He's in a better situation, but he's not playing behind an all-world O line either. He needs players to do their job around him, just like EVERY other QB. Very rare are the ones who don't rely on it to be super-successful...they all need it. It's a TEAM sport...and he was never the weak link in Miami. And he's nowhere near the weak link in Tennessee. He was victimized by some very crucial drops/slips this year, and still performed well above expectation/average.

    Miami ****ing blew it...it's that simple. This organization's repeated failure at the position for 20+ years is completely visible. I HATED the trade when it happened, then I reflected on it, and decided it was probably best for Tannehill to move on and show what he could do without being hampered by the utter failure of a football operation that is the Miami Dolphins. Had I known Flo was going to be as good as he is, I woulda REALLY been pissed off at the trade at the time...but its water under the bridge.

    Pretty funny how some of the folks that hated on Tannehill for 7 years, say the same about Tua (he needs more weapons, he needs a good O line, he needs a good OC, needs needs needs), but aren't trying to run him out of town.

    Some parts of his game have improved in Tennessee...its obvious...but that is the NORMAL for Tannehill. The guy constantly improves, if slowly.

    I enjoy watching the guy play because of his intangibles, not because he's the best QB in the league. He's always been tough as nails, humble, and has NEVER complained about the obvious let-downs the players around him have put him through...and a lot of the time in Tennessee, he's looking like he's loving the game and has a true camaraderie with his teammates.

    Miami's best QB since Marino, and we couldn't wait to get a 4th round draft pick for him...awesome. I pray Tua puts it together in the next few years, or I'm going to REALLY have a heartburn with this god forsaken organization.
     
  13. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Well no that's just a perfect storm scenario. If you have an elite QB taking nonelite pay then you have the best of both worlds. It doesn't usually happen that way. Even lesser QB are likely to get paid "within the range" that they perform, or overpaid in some cases.

    Most Elite QB aren't going to take less than elite money. So the argument was actually about QBs not getting overpaid, getting a PAY CUT for elite QB gives you an even larger advantage.

    If Miami can ever talk an elite QB to come here for non elite money, we would most likely immediately spring to the top of everybody's Super Bowl picks every year.
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, but the point is that if those pay cuts result in a whopping 7 SB appearances and 5 SB wins in 17 years, what would've happened without the pay cuts is likely to have been some of those SB appearances and wins having been by other elite QBs without pay cuts.

    In other words, if the formula of "elite QB plus pay cut" gets you the ever-improbable dynasty, then "elite QB without pay cut" probably gets you around the same frequency of SB wins we've seen from the likes of Brees and Rodgers and company (i.e., the other elites). So instead of Brady's winning five times, we simply see fewer by him and more by Roethlisberger and P. Manning for example, who Brady often outdueled in the playoffs.
     
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  15. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    I don't entirely disagree.

    You touched on the important point. For evidence to have meaning it would have to come from a source independent of the pressure stats themselves.

    If I feel there was what I considered an obvious change in Tannehills performance, mostly due to Tannehills play, but can't develop stats that support it doesn't mean that the stats that support your point that we need to include all his past games are the correct answer. They are only the best answer that those stats support.

    I'm convinced that the current stats being used are over generalized. This means many statistical based conclusions mask what stats that haven't yet been developed would effect.

    This all boils down to what changed that you can quantify when comparing two different teams with different players and different play calling vs improved "functionality" of the same QB if he were on both teams and played the same years on both those teams.

    I feel that Tannehills playing improvement is not measured, only the results of his playing environments have some developed statistics. Trying to use that statistical base would be meaningless in identifying individual QB improvement because the only thing to identify as improvement are the extremes (outliers) in variation of those stats. This could have two results.

    The one you are using is a result where the masking of an incomplete set of variables assumes any "outlier" is the result of individual skill of some sort.

    I'm claiming the result of the masking of an incomplete set of variables covers holes, and those holes could be effected by yet to be developed variables that would produce a different set of "outliers" that would result in a different level of individual skill of some sort.

    I wonder what statistics would be developed by someone knowledgeable in statistics and football, but who is a disinterested party. Their job would be to identify what statistics would be required to account for QB performance changes over time and teams compared across 32 teams.

    I suspect that statistics for each position on the OL would need to be developed first. Then a set for the DL, then a set for all other offensive team players, then a set for all the other defensive team players. Then all those stats would need to be integrated in relation to each other.

    Then offensive play calling stats need to be developed along with defensive play calling stats and those 2 groups of stats need to be integrated in relation to the other 4 groups of stats. At that point, any position can be evaluated for performance.

    Off hand I feel that would require at least 2 playbooks worth of information plus the discreet physical aspects of each player plus identified habits (on the field) of each player. My guess is there would be just under 1000 stats needed for each possible configuration of players and plays. Many of these stats would also need to be qualified by field position and time on the clock.

    I don't see that happening, so I will use my judgement of what I see on the field as my gauge of whether or not there has been improvement in a players level of skill. Maybe I should be using the term "learned experience" in place of "improvement".
     
    resnor likes this.
  16. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Slow news day - LOL
     
  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I think this thread can finally die. Little chance of anymore change of people's opinions, but I will add one purely logic-based question regarding "is it Tannehill that changed or the situation?"

    From 2014 until 2018, Tannehill had a pretty consistent passer rating year by year 92.8, 88.7, 93.5, 92.7, but his game to game passer rating was very inconsistent. This was true right up through 2018. In 2018, he has 6 games below 90 and 5 games above 103. Think about that, his average for the year was 92.7 but he had ZERO games with a passer rating in the 90's. In fact, in the range of 10 points below his average to 10 points about his average (82.7 to 102.7), he had TWO games and one of those was 82.8, right on the edge.

    He gets traded to the Titans and it instantly changes. He not only raises his average passer rating for the season by more than 10 points, he is suddenly much more consistent game by game. It is important to note that this change was right from the first start and this happened despite moving to a new team, learning a new offense, and getting backup reps in practice.

    Simply put, which is more likely to account for this dramatic and instant change in performance? Did Tannehill somehow magically improve from the final start of 2018 to the first start of 2019 or is it more likely due to the fact that EVERYTHING ELSE changed? New coaches, new system, new teammates. The only reason to claim it was Tannehill is to be able to continue to blame him for the results in Miami. It is a desperate attempt to claim that they weren't wrong about what happened in Miami even if they were wrong about what was going to happen in Tenn.
     
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  18. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    We are starting to dip back into arguments of the past. First I don't consider Roethlisberger elite. The only stat by him that would make people argue he is, would be his two Super Bowls. Minus the super bowls you couldn't tell him apart from Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers. We can say with certainty that Aaron Rodgers and Brees wouldn't have taken those Super Bowls, because they had a path to the Super Bowl and didn't make it.

    My point to the whole discussion is that Brady throws the models off, because of the advantage he gave his team with a pay cut other elite players just don't take. If he wasn't there you would have a much closer 50 / 50 ratio (which is still an amazing accomplishment since there is usually only 3 or 4 elite QB in the league). Nobody is arguing that elite doesn't help you win the super bowl. The argument comes in when you put all the pieces together. Is it easy to find an elite QB? Should you scrap a solid QB to continue the hunt for the elite QB? IF you don't find an elite QB then if one makes it to free agency, should you over pay to get him?

    As for Aaron Rodgers, when he won the Super Bowl he was making under 7 million, coming in at the 21st highest paid QB. In the last 17 years there have been 5 times that a QB has won it while making top 10 QB money for the year. Of those 5 times 2 are from Eli Manning that nobody considers elite, and 1 of them was by a Peyton Manning that was playing below average football and got carried by his defense. The other 2 times is Brady and Peyton when they were clearly in the elite category. So my argument stands. If you are going to pay an elite QB like an elite QB, then your chances of winning are greatly diminished. If you want to tighten it up a bit there are only 2 times a QB has been top 5, Eli and broken down Peyton.

    2019 Mahomes 5.5 mil 32nd highest paid
    2018 Brady 22 mil 11th
    2017 Foles 1.6 mil 47th (wents 23)
    2016 Brady 14 mil 18th
    2015 P. Manning 17.5 6th
    2014 Brady 15 mil 12th
    2013 Wilson .7 mil 53rd
    2012 Flaco 8 mil 16th
    2011 E. Manning 14 mil 5th
    2010 Aaron Rodgers 6.5 21st
    2009 Brees 11 mil 14th
    2008 Big Ben 8 mil 11th
    2007 E Manning 10 mil 4th
    2006 P Manning 11 MIL 6th
    2005 Big Ben 4 mil 14th
    2004 Brady 5 mil 8th
    2003 Brady 13 mil 13th

    Obviously there is a lot of playing around teams can do with Salary, but I suspect that the general principal I'm talking about stands.
     
    resnor likes this.
  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Since I'm sensing a "last post" theme from everybody, I might as well share my final thoughts as well.

    When we drafted RT, I thought the front office was nuts. A converted WR with only two years at the position? At #8 overall?

    I was on a different forum at that time- basically about 10-15 of us who got tired of the crowd at Phinsmania so we made our own. We were all pretty close friends and generally agreed on most things Dolphins, plus two of the members there had close relationships with Dolphins executives. So we got the "inside scoops", so to speak, and the front office believed they had our next Marino. They were absolutely nuts over Tannehill and were all-in on developing him. The plan was never for him to start year 1.

    Yet as we all know, RT is a "practice hero" since his only real weakness has always been handling pressure. He wasn't as accurate back then though and I petitioned for Moore, who just came off a pretty good season where we started 0-8 and strung some wins together closing out the year. Gerrard was brought in as the starter, he got hurt early on, and somehow Tannehill got the nod over Moore. LOL, I was furious and our little 15 member community was all over the map on opinions. I actually started posting here to get some outside opinions from a larger pool of fans- I'm here today because of Ryan Tannehill.

    Only, since I was a new member the people here were not my friends...and a few folks started trolling me hard for mentioning RT may not be the answer. LOL, Resnor and I did not get along back in those days, plus a few others absolutely hated me for suggesting Tannehill wasn't ready to be a year-one starter. I posted a thread with the title "We Want Moore!!!" towards the end of the season and things turned ugly in a hurry. But Tannehill just kept playing hard...he'd get leveled one play then throw a beautiful 30+ yard pass on the next one. He slowly won me over because of his sheer toughness.

    By his third season, I still felt like Moore gave us a better chance of winning at times, but Tannehill had really developed into an impressive quarterback. He was getting those timing throws down better and moving more in the pocket, but my inside sources from the other site were telling me that he wasn't allowed to audible and he was forbidden to run. So we basically watched three seasons of this kid being trained to resist what made him such an interesting prospect and just trust his arm in the pocket...even though he had little confidence in the pocket and his mind was telling him to scramble often. Thank God Philbin and company were fired...they almost ruined RT and his career by not building the offense around the QB's strengths and abilities.

    Once Gase was on the scene, we began to see flashes of today's Ryan Tannehill, things finally started coming together and he had some games that should have silenced even the harshest of critics. I was neutral on RT in year three, a fan in year four, and a borderline fanatic in year five. The highs points reminded me so much of Peyton Manning where RT would just see something pre-snap and deliver a rocket, plus he looked good scrambling and throwing under pressure or running for some serious yards. I finally saw what Dolphins executives saw back in year one...this kid was turning into the real deal.

    What many people forget about this journey is that RT missed the next 18 or so games due to injury in years 5-6, then returned at a point where the line was trash due to their own injuries. Year six was definitely RT's low point of his career because he just couldn't get things going under extreme pressure, and many of us here thought his career was over. I think it was the Cinci game where we were up by multiple scores and RT threw a pick-six while getting hit, then fumbled the ball a few drives later on a strip sack around our own 20. There was some very ugly football in that stretch and even those of us saying, "It's the line!" were starting to get quiet. It wasn't "just the line"...RT didn't have enough pocket awareness to get out of those situations.

    So when Tannehill was traded away, part of me was bitter that we blew it with him, while another part felt like he'd become the starter quickly in Tennessee since he's truly a "practice hero" when pressure doesn't apply. A lot of folks here were worried about labels- he's a top-10 quarterback or a top-5...and those people were ultimately proved right. Yet if Tannehill had stayed in Miami, we can all remember the beating Fitzpatrick took in game one and two....RT certainly wouldn't have had the league's top passer rating in Miami in 2019. He probably wouldn't have been in the top-20 and I am ultimately glad we traded him. The fresh start absolutely brought out the best in him.

    For the arguments here that RT had to really evolve these past two seasons to put in the game film that he did, I honestly don't think you were paying attention in those early years under Philbin or the mid-seasons under Gase. He's always had the arm, the toughness and the confidence to move the ball in a hurry- that really hadn't changed. What did make a massive impact was Tannehill's ability to start over and become an actual leader in the offense with the right surrounding cast. We so rarely saw that in Miami...either he couldn't run/audible or he had very little protection, and people quickly lost faith (players included) because they couldn't see what was right in front of them. Tannehill just needed the right system to play his brand of football with people that believed in him.

    Looking back, a lot of you gave me heat for loving Adam Gase as well...but I liked Gase because he completely understood what RT needed to be one of the top QB's in the league. We started to see those flashes in year 4, but Miami was still under the philosophy of trusting veteran linemen with histories of injury to last 16 total games- that alone has defined our last two decades of mediocrity. At one point we likely had two of the best RB's in the league (Williams/Brown) and we wasted them behind sub-par blocking, and the same story extends to Tannehill, Moore and other quarterbacks. We were literally three or four young, scrappy backup linemen away from seeing the current Ryan Tannehill in Miami.

    This turned out to be a lot longer than I had planned, so I'll just say one last thing- many of us expected Tannehill to have a lot of success in Tennessee, but I don't think any of us dreamed of this level of success. These past two seasons were an amazing ride and I'm glad I got to take the journey with you guys- my friends and detractors alike. Because if it wasn't for cBrad (definitely a friend) and a few others saying that RT would certainly crash back down to Earth at any time now, this wouldn't have been nearly as fun of a ride. If we're being 100% honest here, all of us were 100% wrong about Tannehill and 100% right at the same time- he still has those exact same strengths and weaknesses we've all talked about for 8 seasons. The only difference is that he has a team that lifts him up and lets him be himself in the pocket...which is all we ever needed to do in the first place.

    This is probably my last post in this thread- thanks for the memories guys!
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2021
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This article, published online today about Patrick Mahomes, highlights precisely what I've noted here about Ryan Tannehill, how he performs as a function of run/pass probability, performing better when the opposing defense is anticipating the run and not the pass and highlighting the importance of Derrick Henry -- the opposite pattern is true of Mahomes:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-makes-patrick-mahomes-so-great/
     
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This certainly fits under the heading of whether Ryan Tannehill's performance will be sustainable:

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...coaching-job-tennessee-titans-oc-arthur-smith

    What I suspect will happen here is that the Titans hire an OC who, knowing that passing wins in the league, attempts to extract too much passing out of Ryan Tannehill, which destroys the delicate offensive formula he's currently functioning with, that helps him enjoy his success.
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The remaining four QBs in the playoffs this year are four of the top five in the league in EPA per play/CPOE composite (below):

    QBs.png

    The fifth of those top five is Ryan Tannehill, though a key difference between he and them is that the Titans' percentage of offensive plays that were pass attempts in 2020 was second-lowest in the league, 1.6 standard deviations below league average (only Baltimore with Lamar Jackson was lower).

    So while Tannehill's EPA per play is among the league's best, he generates less EPA overall simply because he passes the ball less. Of course that's because Titans run the ball more with Derrick Henry.

    We now have two full seasons of data, including the playoffs, regarding the correlation between Tannehill's passer rating and Derrick Henry's yards per carry, game-by-game. That figure is 0.42, which is well above the league average of near-zero. The greater Henry's YPC, the higher Tannehill's passer rating, and vice-versa.

    So the issue is whether the Titans have to establish Derrick Henry, and he in turn has to play well, in order to get this kind of performance out of Tannehill. If they do, then that diminishes their ability to pass the ball at a clip necessary to win certain kinds of games -- they're simply too busy establishing Henry for the goal (in part) of facilitating Tannehill's performance. If Henry doesn't get going for whatever reason, there's a good chance the entire offense grounds to a halt.

    This was no more evident than in the playoffs this year against the Ravens, where Henry ran for 2.2 yards per carry on 18 carries, Tannehill's passer rating was a mere 83 on 26 pass attempts, and the team was beaten 20-13.

    None of the above is true for the remaining teams in the playoffs, whose QBs show no such dependence on their run games. Those QBs are able to go out and win games on their own, without needing the above sort of symbiosis with their run games.
     
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  23. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Could it be??? Is our long national nightmare finally over???
     
  24. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    That last drive, Tannehill had AJB wide open in the corner to possibly tie the game, instead he throws it to Kalif Raymond....

    Kind of a headscratcher, could Kalif been the first read on that play? No other explantion...

    @The Guy what do you think happend on that play?
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    As it turns out Peter King was correct here, with a prediction he made in early September.
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And there goes Jonnu Smith off to New England.

    Again the question of whether Tannehill's performance is sustainable. The better a QB is individually, the more he's able to withstand the departures of players like Smith.
     
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  27. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    @ The Guy - You just couldn't let this thread die.
     
  28. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity Staff Member Club Member

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    As per the previous declaration, with the start of the 2021 NFL season this thread has now been moved to the Other NFL forum.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Another finding here regarding Tannehill's 2019 season, with an implication for its sustainability:
    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-rankin...sing-plays-las-vegas-raiders-tennessee-titans

    Pay attention this season, as Tannehill will now not have Arthur Smith, Jonnu Smith, or Corey Davis, and of course the odds are against his offensive line's performing in the manner noted above.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Direct implications for the sustainability of Tannehill's performance:

     
  31. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Things get much more interesting with Julio landing in Tennessee.

    My God, if you are a defense how are you suppose to stop Henry, AJ Brown & Julio? Do you still put 8 in the box?
     
    Irishman likes this.
  32. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    Yesterday's beatdown at home to Zona was a bit satisfying.

    That's the Tannehill, I remember!
     
  33. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Lol, only if you seen their oline beat down...Lewan got beat on every damn play
     
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Well the Titans are 4-2 and leading their division. The offense has suffered a ridiculous number of injuries at OL and WR. New OC. Etc.

    Tannehill's numbers are down but he is still playing extremely well overall.

    From NFL.com
    [​IMG]

    From PFF:
    1635247488827.png

    Meanwhile, the Dolphins are dead last, still have no OL, and can't decide if they have a QB or not........

    Just a fail by the franchise.
     
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  35. MikeHoncho

    MikeHoncho -=| Censored |=- Club Member

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    Get your TUMS from Costco.

    This organization is about to fail #1 even harder than they failed #17. Book it.
     
  36. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent Well-Known Member

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    Well he sucks this year
     

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