Salary Cap for 2024

"dolphin25 wrote:

LOL OK.... we shall see. Getting ready to double or triple Tuas salary and double Wilkins, but whatever you say. Not to mention already 40m over for next year currently.

again, that is just accounting mumbo jumbo. It will be how they decide to push it into 2025 and 2026. Also, how much money is Ross willing to spend.

Dolphins are a few years before having to bite the bullet.

"Dol-Fan Dupree wrote:

Dolphins are a few years before having to bite the bullet.

The problem is waiting until you absolutely have to bit it though. Smaller bite on a smaller bullet if you do it sooner. It all depends on how close you feel the team is to winning it all as to how long you wait.

https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/miami-dolphins-facing-cap-crisis-in-2024?utm_source=reddit.com

"Destroyer wrote:

https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/miami-dolphins-facing-cap-crisis-in-2024?utm_source=reddit.com

all mumbo jumbo ;) ;)

This was a really good read on the cap:

path=%2Fr%2Fmiamidolphins%2Fcomments%2F1ahlpam%2F

Here’s a really good explanation of the Dolphins cap situation and why it’s not as dire as some around here want to believe. Also, it seems if Armstead retires it wouldn’t be as bad as initially thought. They could effectively be big spenders this offseason and I suspect they will be if they believe they are in “win now” mode. Again, those whining about the cap situation just don’t understand what’s going on.

The Offseason with Cidolfus 2024: Cap Compliance

In the interest of planning an offseason series I can actually complete, the format of this series will change this year. See below the schedule of planned topics. We start with examining how the Dolphins become cap compliant by the March 13, 4:00 PM EST deadline and what types of moves are available to build cap space for free agency.

* **Part I: Cap Compliance**
* **Part II: Quarterback**
* **Part III: Offensive Line**
* **Part IV: Skill Positions**
* **Part V: Defensive Line**
* **Part VI: Linebackers**
* **Part VII: Secondary**

In previous years I’ve made more of an effort to guess at what I think the Dolphins will do. This year, I will focus instead on what the Dolphins can do. To that end, each of the posts focusing on specific position groups will list the players under contract, identify the impending free agents, and outline possible acquisitions in free agency and the draft. I want to cover a broad range of options, even if those options are unlikely.

All contract figures are sourced from http://www.overthecap.com unless otherwise stated.

---

#Cap Compliance

As of writing, the Dolphins are $51,898,226 over a projected $242,000,000 salary cap with only 46 players under contract. As many of you know, teams can carry up to 90 players during the offseason but only the top 51 contract values count against cap compliance until roster cuts at the end of the summer. Factoring in those top 51 contracts and the projected cap cost of our rookie draft class, the Dolphins are effectively $58,869,079 over the salary cap.

Teams rarely sign their draft classes until well after the draft, though. Those up against the cap, as we are this year, will often wait until after June 1 because of the additional cap flexibility granted by post-June 1 releases before they’ll sign the rookies. With that in mind, I expect that the Dolphins will spend right up to the salary cap ahead of the draft, without leaving cap space for rookies, and use post-June 1 cuts to free up the additional space to cover the cost of rookies, the final two roster spots, and the practice squad.

The key to this is Xavien Howard. I have little doubt that the Dolphins will designate Howard post-June 1 release almost immediately. If he’s on the roster on March 15, $4,000,000 of his base salary becomes guaranteed and he’s additionally owed $3,000,000 in roster bonus. That’s a $7,000,000 dead money incentive to make a decision to move on as soon as the league year turns over. Designating Howard as a post-June 1 release doesn’t move the needle for cap compliance by the March 13 deadline, but it frees up $18,500,000 on June 2, which more than covers the cost of those post-draft considerations mentioned above.

At minimum, the Dolphins need to clear $56,668,226 by the March 13 deadline to be compliant. That’s our magic number. Realistically, the team will look to clear much more so that we can afford to re-sign impending free agents and pursue new talent from across the league. Grier has a few tools at his disposal to accomplish this.

**Releases**

The most straightforward option is releasing players and clearing all their non-guaranteed money from the books. We have several candidates for this, some more obvious than others. Below is a list of all players who could be outright cut for a net savings (over the cost of a minimum salary replacement at $795,000) of at least $500,000.

Player|2024 Cap|Dead Money|Savings|Net Savings
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
Emmanuel Ogbah|$17,708,824|$4,000,000|$13,708,824|$12,913,824
Jerome Baker|$14,794,111|$4,973,334|$9,820,777|$9,025,777
David Long Jr.|$6,710,000|$2,210,000|$4,500,000|$3,705,000
Mike White|$5,210,000|$1,710,000|$3,500,000|$2,705,000
Keion Crossen|$2,990,000|$0|$2,990,000|$2,195,000
Jeff Wilson|$3,667,500|$782,500|$2,895,000|$2,100,000
Xavien Howard|$25,906,284|$23,105,284|$2,801,000|$2,006,000
Raheem Mostert|$3,360,882|$650,000|$2,710,882|$1,915,000
Duke Riley|$3,085,000|$585,000|$2,500,000|$1,705,000
Jason Sanders|$4,506,500|$2,126,000|$2,380,500|$1,585,500
Alec Ingold|$4,290,000|$2,250,000|$2,040,000|$1,245,000
Jevon Holland|$2,773,401|$924,801|$1,848,600|$1,053,600
Liam Eichenberg|$2,550,063|$797,178|$1,752,885|$957,885
Durham Smythe|$4,916,960|$3,363,000|$1,553,626|$758,626
**Total**||||$43,871,212

Obviously not all of these guys will be cut. For some (Mostert, Holland, and Long) it’s silly to suggest. Others (White, Riley, Ingold, Smythe) are solid depth at worst whose savings likely don’t justify moving on. Others, like Howard, are more likely to be moved in different transactions like the post-June 1 designation I already mentioned. Some (Sanders, Eichenberg) are on the bubble but don’t offer significant enough savings up front to release them now. In all likelihood, they’ll get an opportunity to compete in camp.

Reasonably, I expect Ogbah, Baker, Crossen, and Wilson to be released ahead of the March deadline. That clears $26,234,601 right away. This would leave the Dolphins $30,433,625 over the cap when considering a full 51 contracts but not the cost of rookies.

**Restructures**

Despite having the second least amount of cap space heading into the 2024 season, the Dolphins are not significantly leveraged against prior restructures (see: the Saints and Eagles). Restructuring is a tool the team has used sparingly in recent history. Consequently, the Dolphins have several contracts which can be restructured to free significant amounts of cap space in 2024 at the cost of pushing dead money into future years. Per Over the Cap, the Dolphins have a maximum restructure potential of $139,536,471--the most in the NFL.

Even if Grier is extremely aggressive, he won’t get close to that figure. That involves restructuring players like Ogbah who will almost certainly be cut instead. That said, restructures will be a big part of the cap compliance strategy, and there are a handful of obvious targets whose restructure significantly moves the needle. For the purposes of the table below, simple savings refers to the potential savings available by restructure *without* adding additional void years; max savings considers void years to stretch out the pro-rated bonus to the maximum five years.

Player|Eligible Salary|Simple Savings|Max Savings
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
Jalen Ramsey|$24,290,000|$18,217,500|$19,432,000
Bradley Chubb|$19,405,000|$14,553,750|$15,524,000
Tyreek Hill|$18,805,000|$12,536,541|$15,044,000
Terron Armstead|$13,040,000|$8,693,246|$10,432,000
Zach Sieler|$7,545,000|$4,946,617|$5,936,000
**Total**||$58,947,654|$66,368,000

I am confident that Ramsey, Chubb, Hill, and Sieler likely restructure some amount of their contract. Ramsey, for example, already has an $11,000,000 roster bonus that I would be shocked to see the team eat without converting it to signing bonus in a restructure even if they don’t touch his base salary.

Keep in mind that the above figures represent calculations based on restructuring the entire amount of eligible salary, but there’s no obligation to do so. The Dolphins could, for example, choose to restructure only $10,000,000 of Chubb’s eligible salary to save $7,500,000 without adding any void years and only increasing his cap charge by $2,500,000 in each of the next three years.

Restructuring Armstead, who is apparently mulling retirement (we’ll get to that), would be insane because of the dead money it moves into future years, essentially making him uncuttable in 2025. Excepting Armstead, the Dolphins can quickly clear up to $55,836,000 in additional cap space from restructures on the other four contracts alone. That easily clears the $30,433,625 required for compliance, giving the Dolphins $25,402,375 in available cap space headed into free agency on top of the cuts.

**Extensions**

When extending players under contract, teams will often treat the current year that the player is still under contract similarly to a restructure and convert all but the minimum required salary into signing bonus to prorate it across the duration of the new contract. By doing this, the team can reduce a player’s current year cap charge while locking them down long term.

You can see an example of what this looks like by looking at Austin Jackon’s recent extension. Despite being a three year deal worth $36,000,000, his salary cap charge is only $4,577,113 in 2024 because his base salary is the minimum for a 4-year veteran ($1,125,000) and the deal has two void years. This extends his signing bonus out over the full five years so that he only has $2,332,113 in prorated signing bonus against the cap next year. Expect this aggressive contract structuring with most deals the Dolphins sign.

The Dolphins have a couple extension-eligible players, though only those drafted in the first round or currently on veteran contracts offer much in the way of potential savings.

Player|Eligible Salary|Potential Savings
:-:|:-:|:-:
Tua Tagovailoa|$22,046,000|$17,636,800
Jaylen Waddle|$8,688,272|$6,950,618
David Long Jr.|$3,375,000|$2,700,000
Mike White|$2,375,000|$1,900,000
Jaelan Phillips|$1,586,573|$1,269,258

I expect that rather than extending either Waddle or Phillips right away, both will receive the fifth-year-option designation (though given his injury, even that carries risk for Phillips). Because of the other large-value contracts we have on the books in 2024 and 2025 already, designating Waddle and Phillips with the fifth-year option and then extending them next year allows the team to delay their new money from significantly impacting the cap until 2026 or even 2027.

White is similarly unlikely here, the maximum savings require adding enough new years or void years to extend the proration to the full five year duration; that’s unlikely given the minimal savings available.

I understand it’s going to be controversial--and I’ll get to it in more depth when I address our options at quarterback in greater depth--but extending Tua and Long and bringing down their 2024 cap charges makes a lot of sense. Between the two of them, we could conceivably save an additional $20,336,800 in cap space, giving the Dolphins a total $45,739,175 in cap space heading into free agency. That’s enough money to even leverage the non-exclusive franchise tender on Christian Wilkins (which will likely cost somewhere around $19 million), though Grier’s recent statements, and the cost of carrying that on the books, suggest that’s also unlikely.

Those of you thinking ahead might notice that Jevon Holland was not on the list. His base salary is already so low in 2024 ($1,848,600) that extending him is unlikely to bring that figure down. In fact, with the signing bonus he’d likely get, his 2024 figure would probably go up in an extension. While I expect we will try to extend Holland and lock him down before he hits free agency next year, it’s doubtful that happens until after June 1.

**Trades and Retirement**

The less likely scenarios to reduce salary cap charge are to trade players or to let a player retire.

Retirement is allegedly on the table for Terron Armstead. While it already costs more for the Dolphins to cut Terron Armstead than it does to keep him, if he retires we won’t owe him the $5 million of his 2024 base salary which is already guaranteed. This means if Armstead retires, the Dolphins would save $325,735 after a minimum salary replacement.

The Dolphins would have control of when he is placed on the Reserve/Retired list, however, and they would likely wait until after June 1 to make that designation. That means that on June 2, the Dolphins would save an additional $13,838,235. Waiting to do so would fully-guarantee the remainder of his 2024 base salary (which triggers if he’s on the roster March 16), but the point is moot if he’s retired since he won’t actually play to earn that base salary.

Functionally, Armstead’s retirement doesn’t impact this year except that we’d be pressured to replace him immediately. It’s a move that would save the Dolphins considerable cap space in 2025 and beyond, though, which provides additional flexibility backloading deals.

Trading players is also on the table, though there aren’t many options that save significant money.

Player|Net Savings
:-:|:-:
Tua Tagovailoa|$22,376,000
Jalen Ramsey|$19,404,000
Emmanuel Ogbah|$12,913,824
Jerome Baker|$9,025,777
Jeff Wilson|$1,850,000

Though I understand there are those who would jump at the opportunity to trade Tua away, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Nobody expects to trade Ramsey either. While we’d all love to trade Ogbah and get something in return rather than cutting him outright (for the same cap savings), it’s hard to imagine anyone wants to take him on at a $15,100,000 2024 base salary. Baker is in a similar boat. I’m not sure who would take him for $11,000,000 in 2024. Cuts are far more likely here.

Jeff Wilson is a much more reasonable trade target. Considering that the Dolphins acquired him in 2022 for a fifth-round pick, I wouldn’t bet on getting better than that now.

---

#Cap Strategy

While the Dolphins are tight against the salary cap, the front office has plenty of tools available to free up cap space to afford the team some significant breathing room. Although $45,739,175 doesn’t sound like a lot of cap space, a team willing to aggressively backload contracts can push that money awfully far. Consider again that Austin Jackson’s new deal averages $12 million per year but he only costs $4,577,113 against the cap in 2024. Expect any new contracts we take on to be similarly structured. That should give you an idea of what can be accomplished with nearly $46 million in cap space.

It's also worth noting that all the calculations I've done considering the cost of replacing a cut player with a minimum salary player work the other way as well. Once the Dolphins have cleared enough cap to be compliant by the deadline, any new contract they sign in free agency displaces a minimum salary player against the top 51 contracts. That means that if the Dolphins sign a player who has a cap hit of $5,000,000 in 2024, the actual net loss against the cap would be at most $4,205,000. That helps stretch that $46 million a little bit further.

News out of the Pro Bowl is that the Dolphins and Tua are already close to an agreement on an extension. In the next entry, I’ll examine what that contract might look like (and touch base on what alternatives are available), but the news loudly broadcasts the team’s intentions. The Dolphins believe that they can win with the core of this team as is, and we’re going to spend like a team that believes they’re in a championship window. We’re going to backload contracts and play musical chairs with cap space via restructuring like the Saints during the twilight of Brees’s career from 2017-2020 or how the Eagles have since 2017.

This should not surprise anyone: it’s the only meaningful path forward for the Dolphins right now. The writing is on the wall with the contracts we already have on the books and if you know what you’re looking for, it’s easy to see how even the new extensions we’ve signed line up with 2026 as the inflection point for this roster. McDaniel’s contract is up after 2025. Hill’s deal realistically runs through 2025 and 2026 is just a dummy year he’ll never actually play on. Ramsey’s contract will be up. Howard and Armstead will likely be gone before then, but both of their contracts have easy outs in 2026 if they somehow make it that far. Even the new deals for Jackson and Sieler leave the team the option to move on from them for significant cap savings in 2026.

Of course, it means paying Tua a massive amount of money and understanding that we’re going to eat a big chunk of dead cap to move on if it falls apart the next two seasons. It’s unquestionably a gamble, but if the team gets it wrong, we’ll be a miserable repeat of the 2019 season in 2026 away from wide-eyed optimism all over again.

A lot to digest there, but much appreciated!

Ross is really the only one that can save us from a Tua extension. It makes too much sense for Grier.

"Fishhead wrote:

A lot to digest there, but much appreciated!

It’s pretty straightforward. Extend Tua, restructure Chubb, Tyreek, and Ramsey. Cut X and Baker. That alone would bring the Dolphins around $50m into the black.
The handwringing about the cap is just a way to blame Grier for something that isn’t an issue. More than likely the Dolphins will have a lot of money to get some really good FA’s to replace those they cut, will have money for Wilkins, Williams, and AVG. It’s win now mode while Tyreek is in his prime, Achane, Waddle, and Holland are on cheap contracts, and a strong OL draft class. Get a good TE and someone who can play as well, if not better than Baker, and we’re good to go. If the Dolphins can get and stay healthy there is no reason they can’t make a strong playoff run. Those extensions are kicking the can down the road, but a couple of AFCCG’s and/or a SB win will make a few down years after bearable.
The alternative is to start sucking now, get rid of everyone, and start over and have down years now. I’d rather the former. But, I’m a Dolphins fan. lol

"danmarino wrote:

Here’s a really good explanation of the Dolphins cap situation and why it’s not as dire as some around here want to believe. Also, it seems if Armstead retires it wouldn’t be as bad as initially thought. They could effectively be big spenders this offseason and I suspect they will be if they believe they are in “win now” mode. Again, those whining about the cap situation just don’t understand what’s going on.

The Offseason with Cidolfus 2024: Cap Compliance

In the interest of planning an offseason series I can actually complete, the format of this series will change this year. See below the schedule of planned topics. We start with examining how the Dolphins become cap compliant by the March 13, 4:00 PM EST deadline and what types of moves are available to build cap space for free agency.

* **Part I: Cap Compliance**
* **Part II: Quarterback**
* **Part III: Offensive Line**
* **Part IV: Skill Positions**
* **Part V: Defensive Line**
* **Part VI: Linebackers**
* **Part VII: Secondary**

In previous years I’ve made more of an effort to guess at what I think the Dolphins will do. This year, I will focus instead on what the Dolphins can do. To that end, each of the posts focusing on specific position groups will list the players under contract, identify the impending free agents, and outline possible acquisitions in free agency and the draft. I want to cover a broad range of options, even if those options are unlikely.

All contract figures are sourced from http://www.overthecap.com unless otherwise stated.

---

#Cap Compliance

As of writing, the Dolphins are $51,898,226 over a projected $242,000,000 salary cap with only 46 players under contract. As many of you know, teams can carry up to 90 players during the offseason but only the top 51 contract values count against cap compliance until roster cuts at the end of the summer. Factoring in those top 51 contracts and the projected cap cost of our rookie draft class, the Dolphins are effectively $58,869,079 over the salary cap.

Teams rarely sign their draft classes until well after the draft, though. Those up against the cap, as we are this year, will often wait until after June 1 because of the additional cap flexibility granted by post-June 1 releases before they’ll sign the rookies. With that in mind, I expect that the Dolphins will spend right up to the salary cap ahead of the draft, without leaving cap space for rookies, and use post-June 1 cuts to free up the additional space to cover the cost of rookies, the final two roster spots, and the practice squad.

The key to this is Xavien Howard. I have little doubt that the Dolphins will designate Howard post-June 1 release almost immediately. If he’s on the roster on March 15, $4,000,000 of his base salary becomes guaranteed and he’s additionally owed $3,000,000 in roster bonus. That’s a $7,000,000 dead money incentive to make a decision to move on as soon as the league year turns over. Designating Howard as a post-June 1 release doesn’t move the needle for cap compliance by the March 13 deadline, but it frees up $18,500,000 on June 2, which more than covers the cost of those post-draft considerations mentioned above.

At minimum, the Dolphins need to clear $56,668,226 by the March 13 deadline to be compliant. That’s our magic number. Realistically, the team will look to clear much more so that we can afford to re-sign impending free agents and pursue new talent from across the league. Grier has a few tools at his disposal to accomplish this.

**Releases**

The most straightforward option is releasing players and clearing all their non-guaranteed money from the books. We have several candidates for this, some more obvious than others. Below is a list of all players who could be outright cut for a net savings (over the cost of a minimum salary replacement at $795,000) of at least $500,000.

Player|2024 Cap|Dead Money|Savings|Net Savings
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
Emmanuel Ogbah|$17,708,824|$4,000,000|$13,708,824|$12,913,824
Jerome Baker|$14,794,111|$4,973,334|$9,820,777|$9,025,777
David Long Jr.|$6,710,000|$2,210,000|$4,500,000|$3,705,000
Mike White|$5,210,000|$1,710,000|$3,500,000|$2,705,000
Keion Crossen|$2,990,000|$0|$2,990,000|$2,195,000
Jeff Wilson|$3,667,500|$782,500|$2,895,000|$2,100,000
Xavien Howard|$25,906,284|$23,105,284|$2,801,000|$2,006,000
Raheem Mostert|$3,360,882|$650,000|$2,710,882|$1,915,000
Duke Riley|$3,085,000|$585,000|$2,500,000|$1,705,000
Jason Sanders|$4,506,500|$2,126,000|$2,380,500|$1,585,500
Alec Ingold|$4,290,000|$2,250,000|$2,040,000|$1,245,000
Jevon Holland|$2,773,401|$924,801|$1,848,600|$1,053,600
Liam Eichenberg|$2,550,063|$797,178|$1,752,885|$957,885
Durham Smythe|$4,916,960|$3,363,000|$1,553,626|$758,626
**Total**||||$43,871,212

Obviously not all of these guys will be cut. For some (Mostert, Holland, and Long) it’s silly to suggest. Others (White, Riley, Ingold, Smythe) are solid depth at worst whose savings likely don’t justify moving on. Others, like Howard, are more likely to be moved in different transactions like the post-June 1 designation I already mentioned. Some (Sanders, Eichenberg) are on the bubble but don’t offer significant enough savings up front to release them now. In all likelihood, they’ll get an opportunity to compete in camp.

Reasonably, I expect Ogbah, Baker, Crossen, and Wilson to be released ahead of the March deadline. That clears $26,234,601 right away. This would leave the Dolphins $30,433,625 over the cap when considering a full 51 contracts but not the cost of rookies.

**Restructures**

Despite having the second least amount of cap space heading into the 2024 season, the Dolphins are not significantly leveraged against prior restructures (see: the Saints and Eagles). Restructuring is a tool the team has used sparingly in recent history. Consequently, the Dolphins have several contracts which can be restructured to free significant amounts of cap space in 2024 at the cost of pushing dead money into future years. Per Over the Cap, the Dolphins have a maximum restructure potential of $139,536,471--the most in the NFL.

Even if Grier is extremely aggressive, he won’t get close to that figure. That involves restructuring players like Ogbah who will almost certainly be cut instead. That said, restructures will be a big part of the cap compliance strategy, and there are a handful of obvious targets whose restructure significantly moves the needle. For the purposes of the table below, simple savings refers to the potential savings available by restructure *without* adding additional void years; max savings considers void years to stretch out the pro-rated bonus to the maximum five years.

Player|Eligible Salary|Simple Savings|Max Savings
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
Jalen Ramsey|$24,290,000|$18,217,500|$19,432,000
Bradley Chubb|$19,405,000|$14,553,750|$15,524,000
Tyreek Hill|$18,805,000|$12,536,541|$15,044,000
Terron Armstead|$13,040,000|$8,693,246|$10,432,000
Zach Sieler|$7,545,000|$4,946,617|$5,936,000
**Total**||$58,947,654|$66,368,000

I am confident that Ramsey, Chubb, Hill, and Sieler likely restructure some amount of their contract. Ramsey, for example, already has an $11,000,000 roster bonus that I would be shocked to see the team eat without converting it to signing bonus in a restructure even if they don’t touch his base salary.

Keep in mind that the above figures represent calculations based on restructuring the entire amount of eligible salary, but there’s no obligation to do so. The Dolphins could, for example, choose to restructure only $10,000,000 of Chubb’s eligible salary to save $7,500,000 without adding any void years and only increasing his cap charge by $2,500,000 in each of the next three years.

Restructuring Armstead, who is apparently mulling retirement (we’ll get to that), would be insane because of the dead money it moves into future years, essentially making him uncuttable in 2025. Excepting Armstead, the Dolphins can quickly clear up to $55,836,000 in additional cap space from restructures on the other four contracts alone. That easily clears the $30,433,625 required for compliance, giving the Dolphins $25,402,375 in available cap space headed into free agency on top of the cuts.

**Extensions**

When extending players under contract, teams will often treat the current year that the player is still under contract similarly to a restructure and convert all but the minimum required salary into signing bonus to prorate it across the duration of the new contract. By doing this, the team can reduce a player’s current year cap charge while locking them down long term.

You can see an example of what this looks like by looking at Austin Jackon’s recent extension. Despite being a three year deal worth $36,000,000, his salary cap charge is only $4,577,113 in 2024 because his base salary is the minimum for a 4-year veteran ($1,125,000) and the deal has two void years. This extends his signing bonus out over the full five years so that he only has $2,332,113 in prorated signing bonus against the cap next year. Expect this aggressive contract structuring with most deals the Dolphins sign.

The Dolphins have a couple extension-eligible players, though only those drafted in the first round or currently on veteran contracts offer much in the way of potential savings.

Player|Eligible Salary|Potential Savings
:-:|:-:|:-:
Tua Tagovailoa|$22,046,000|$17,636,800
Jaylen Waddle|$8,688,272|$6,950,618
David Long Jr.|$3,375,000|$2,700,000
Mike White|$2,375,000|$1,900,000
Jaelan Phillips|$1,586,573|$1,269,258

I expect that rather than extending either Waddle or Phillips right away, both will receive the fifth-year-option designation (though given his injury, even that carries risk for Phillips). Because of the other large-value contracts we have on the books in 2024 and 2025 already, designating Waddle and Phillips with the fifth-year option and then extending them next year allows the team to delay their new money from significantly impacting the cap until 2026 or even 2027.

White is similarly unlikely here, the maximum savings require adding enough new years or void years to extend the proration to the full five year duration; that’s unlikely given the minimal savings available.

I understand it’s going to be controversial--and I’ll get to it in more depth when I address our options at quarterback in greater depth--but extending Tua and Long and bringing down their 2024 cap charges makes a lot of sense. Between the two of them, we could conceivably save an additional $20,336,800 in cap space, giving the Dolphins a total $45,739,175 in cap space heading into free agency. That’s enough money to even leverage the non-exclusive franchise tender on Christian Wilkins (which will likely cost somewhere around $19 million), though Grier’s recent statements, and the cost of carrying that on the books, suggest that’s also unlikely.

Those of you thinking ahead might notice that Jevon Holland was not on the list. His base salary is already so low in 2024 ($1,848,600) that extending him is unlikely to bring that figure down. In fact, with the signing bonus he’d likely get, his 2024 figure would probably go up in an extension. While I expect we will try to extend Holland and lock him down before he hits free agency next year, it’s doubtful that happens until after June 1.

**Trades and Retirement**

The less likely scenarios to reduce salary cap charge are to trade players or to let a player retire.

Retirement is allegedly on the table for Terron Armstead. While it already costs more for the Dolphins to cut Terron Armstead than it does to keep him, if he retires we won’t owe him the $5 million of his 2024 base salary which is already guaranteed. This means if Armstead retires, the Dolphins would save $325,735 after a minimum salary replacement.

The Dolphins would have control of when he is placed on the Reserve/Retired list, however, and they would likely wait until after June 1 to make that designation. That means that on June 2, the Dolphins would save an additional $13,838,235. Waiting to do so would fully-guarantee the remainder of his 2024 base salary (which triggers if he’s on the roster March 16), but the point is moot if he’s retired since he won’t actually play to earn that base salary.

Functionally, Armstead’s retirement doesn’t impact this year except that we’d be pressured to replace him immediately. It’s a move that would save the Dolphins considerable cap space in 2025 and beyond, though, which provides additional flexibility backloading deals.

Trading players is also on the table, though there aren’t many options that save significant money.

Player|Net Savings
:-:|:-:
Tua Tagovailoa|$22,376,000
Jalen Ramsey|$19,404,000
Emmanuel Ogbah|$12,913,824
Jerome Baker|$9,025,777
Jeff Wilson|$1,850,000

Though I understand there are those who would jump at the opportunity to trade Tua away, I wouldn’t hold my breath. Nobody expects to trade Ramsey either. While we’d all love to trade Ogbah and get something in return rather than cutting him outright (for the same cap savings), it’s hard to imagine anyone wants to take him on at a $15,100,000 2024 base salary. Baker is in a similar boat. I’m not sure who would take him for $11,000,000 in 2024. Cuts are far more likely here.

Jeff Wilson is a much more reasonable trade target. Considering that the Dolphins acquired him in 2022 for a fifth-round pick, I wouldn’t bet on getting better than that now.

---

#Cap Strategy

While the Dolphins are tight against the salary cap, the front office has plenty of tools available to free up cap space to afford the team some significant breathing room. Although $45,739,175 doesn’t sound like a lot of cap space, a team willing to aggressively backload contracts can push that money awfully far. Consider again that Austin Jackson’s new deal averages $12 million per year but he only costs $4,577,113 against the cap in 2024. Expect any new contracts we take on to be similarly structured. That should give you an idea of what can be accomplished with nearly $46 million in cap space.

It's also worth noting that all the calculations I've done considering the cost of replacing a cut player with a minimum salary player work the other way as well. Once the Dolphins have cleared enough cap to be compliant by the deadline, any new contract they sign in free agency displaces a minimum salary player against the top 51 contracts. That means that if the Dolphins sign a player who has a cap hit of $5,000,000 in 2024, the actual net loss against the cap would be at most $4,205,000. That helps stretch that $46 million a little bit further.

News out of the Pro Bowl is that the Dolphins and Tua are already close to an agreement on an extension. In the next entry, I’ll examine what that contract might look like (and touch base on what alternatives are available), but the news loudly broadcasts the team’s intentions. The Dolphins believe that they can win with the core of this team as is, and we’re going to spend like a team that believes they’re in a championship window. We’re going to backload contracts and play musical chairs with cap space via restructuring like the Saints during the twilight of Brees’s career from 2017-2020 or how the Eagles have since 2017.

This should not surprise anyone: it’s the only meaningful path forward for the Dolphins right now. The writing is on the wall with the contracts we already have on the books and if you know what you’re looking for, it’s easy to see how even the new extensions we’ve signed line up with 2026 as the inflection point for this roster. McDaniel’s contract is up after 2025. Hill’s deal realistically runs through 2025 and 2026 is just a dummy year he’ll never actually play on. Ramsey’s contract will be up. Howard and Armstead will likely be gone before then, but both of their contracts have easy outs in 2026 if they somehow make it that far. Even the new deals for Jackson and Sieler leave the team the option to move on from them for significant cap savings in 2026.

Of course, it means paying Tua a massive amount of money and understanding that we’re going to eat a big chunk of dead cap to move on if it falls apart the next two seasons. It’s unquestionably a gamble, but if the team gets it wrong, we’ll be a miserable repeat of the 2019 season in 2026 away from wide-eyed optimism all over again.

It is always possible to get under the cap. The difference is in how you view doing it. For some getting rid of 10 players you would like to keep doesn't matter. To others who want to keep building the team it does matter. Going to be interesting to see what happens.

"danmarino wrote:

It’s pretty straightforward. Extend Tua, restructure Chubb, Tyreek, and Ramsey. Cut X and Baker. That alone would bring the Dolphins around $50m into the black.
The handwringing about the cap is just a way to blame Grier for something that isn’t an issue. More than likely the Dolphins will have a lot of money to get some really good FA’s to replace those they cut, will have money for Wilkins, Williams, and AVG. It’s win now mode while Tyreek is in his prime, Achane, Waddle, and Holland are on cheap contracts, and a strong OL draft class. Get a good TE and someone who can play as well, if not better than Baker, and we’re good to go. If the Dolphins can get and stay healthy there is no reason they can’t make a strong playoff run. Those extensions are kicking the can down the road, but a couple of AFCCG’s and/or a SB win will make a few down years after bearable.
The alternative is to start sucking now, get rid of everyone, and start over and have down years now. I’d rather the former. But, I’m a Dolphins fan. lol

so you are saying doing all this "Extend Tua, restructure Chubb, Tyreek, and Ramsey. Cut X and Baker." will gain us 100 million in salary room, because we are already 51 million over. That is some interesting accounting.

"dolphin25 wrote:

so you are saying doing all this "Extend Tua, restructure Chubb, Tyreek, and Ramsey. Cut X and Baker." will gain us 100 million in salary room, because we are already 51 million over. That is some interesting accounting.

It’s not “interesting” if one can add and subtract.

Restructuring Chubb, Tyreek, and Ramsey could save $50m. Extending Tua could save $18m. Cutting Ogbah, X, and Baker could save $23m.

That’s $91m. The projected cap is going to be about $16-$18m over what it is currently. So, that’s over $100m.
I mean, it’s all right there in my post. If you’re not going to read it, fine, but maybe don’t act skeptical when the info proves me right.

"dolphin25 wrote:

It is always possible to get under the cap. The difference is in how you view doing it. For some getting rid of 10 players you would like to keep doesn't matter. To others who want to keep building the team it does matter. Going to be interesting to see what happens.

Who’s saying get rid of 10 players besides you?

"dolphin25 wrote:

so you are saying doing all this "Extend Tua, restructure Chubb, Tyreek, and Ramsey. Cut X and Baker." will gain us 100 million in salary room, because we are already 51 million over. That is some interesting accounting.

Was reading X might have an injury clause similar to Byron Jones. Might be stuck with that contract.

And yeah, agreed. You are just pushing the financial commitment to future years, you do that when you were close to winning/going deep in playoffs, but this team isn't anywhere close. Practically, they need to start the rebuild today, but Grier is trying to save his job here, which means extend Tua and push dumb money to future seasons. Only Ross, the guy who is old and dying soon can save us, and he's not going to because he doesn't have many more years on this earth.

"StaleTacos wrote:

Was reading X might have an injury clause similar to Byron Jones. Might be stuck with that contract.

And yeah, agreed. You are just pushing the financial commitment to future years, you do that when you were close to winning/going deep in playoffs, but this team isn't anywhere close. Practically, they need to start the rebuild today, but Grier is trying to save his job here, which means extend Tua and push dumb money to future seasons. Only Ross, the guy who is old and dying soon can save us, and he's not going to because he doesn't have many more years on this earth.

They were 1/2 away from winning the division. So we are very close not "isn't anywhere close".

"Finatik wrote:

They were 1/2 away from winning the division. So we are very close not "isn't anywhere close".

Don't ruin the negativity man
-Tommy Chong

"Finatik wrote:

They were 1/2 away from winning the division. So we are very close not "isn't anywhere close".

You do realize that half of the defense is not under contract currently, and the other half is injured correct?

"StaleTacos wrote:

Was reading X might have an injury clause similar to Byron Jones. Might be stuck with that contract.

And yeah, agreed. You are just pushing the financial commitment to future years, you do that when you were close to winning/going deep in playoffs, but this team isn't anywhere close. Practically, they need to start the rebuild today, but Grier is trying to save his job here, which means extend Tua and push dumb money to future seasons. Only Ross, the guy who is old and dying soon can save us, and he's not going to because he doesn't have many more years on this earth.

It is interesting people say , just release all these players and we will under the cap, apparently not realizing we will have to sign players :) Losing Wilkins, Baker. AVG, X because of the salary cap mess is not a win in my books.

"Finatik wrote:

They were 1/2 away from winning the division. So we are very close not "isn't anywhere close".

1/2 a game and about 10 injuries away. Lol

"dolphin25 wrote:

It is interesting people say , just release all these players and we will under the cap, apparently not realizing we will have to sign players :) Losing Wilkins, Baker. AVG, X because of the salary cap mess is not a win in my books.

Good thing no one is suggesting losing Wilkins, AVG, or anyone else of consequence. Will they be signed? Who knows, but it won’t be because the Dolphins can’t afford them.

And All a person has to do is a little google search to see who else will be a FA from other teams and possibly signed to replace X and Baker. Cheaper and as good or better.

"Finatik wrote:

They were 1/2 away from winning the division. So we are very close not "isn't anywhere close".

Bro. Those games weren't close though. We were blown out by the playoff level teams, Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens.

In a season where QBs had a down year, where Tua's league leading yard total would have led the league once in 15+ years (and that time was a 16 game season), Tua stayed healthy, and we faced the least winning teams in the sport. That is going to be the ceiling for Tua and the team. The team are going to lose so much talent, and no easy solutions to replace. We don't have the draft capital.

The window is closed. The wrong QB was chosen. The question now is do you stubbornly pretend it's still open, and keep going, or rebuild. It's going to be the former because Grier wants to keep his job.

"dolphin25 wrote:

You do realize that half of the defense is not under contract currently, and the other half is injured correct?

2 guys are injured and they will be back. Some of the other guys will be signed. And there's this weird thing called free agency. You've all been shown how the cap can be managed but the chicken littles are still running around crying the sky is falling.

"Finatik wrote:

2 guys are injured and they will be back. Some of the other guys will be signed. And there's this weird thing called free agency. You've all been shown how the cap can be managed but the chicken littles are still running around crying the sky is falling.

No. We just aren't buying your version of the future that you're selling. It's fine if you buy it. I don't.

This year was outer best shot at winning it all. Injuries crushed that. I don't see us keeping this much talent while also giving Tua a big contract etc etc.

I know I know, fancy accounting fixes that. Great.

So we get 2-3 seasons more to try to win it all, before the the contracts all balloon and we're screwed, and the rebuild starts anyway.

I don't think they win it all in the next two seasons...unless they simply franchise tag Tua.

I think Tua sits out of they do that...I would if I were him.

Franchising Tua is likely to be a significantly higher cap hit than an extension.

We had some tough losses to end the season and did the classic Miami thing of being unable to pair good defensive games with good offensive games. Annoying!!

But the idea that we aren't close and must rebuild is fallacious. Nonsensical even. The team has some heavy lifting in navigating free agency and the draft but if they do well and the injuries normalize, we absolutely have a very good shot at the division and a key home playoff game or two.

I get we ended the season on a downer, but the doomsaying is a bit much frankly. Maybe it doesn't work out, but it doesn't work out for 31 teams every year. We are 100% still close enough to keep the run going and try again.

"Finatik wrote:

2 guys are injured and they will be back. Some of the other guys will be signed. And there's this weird thing called free agency. You've all been shown how the cap can be managed but the chicken littles are still running around crying the sky is falling.

So AVG with broken ankle is not injured? Baker is not injured with broken hand? The cap can certainly be managed, but for me losing AVG. Baker, Wilkins, X is not a win, that is loss. They could easily manage it by just cutting everyone.