Where Sanchez goes depends on when Stafford is drafted. I think Stafford goes at #10 to the 49ers. The Lions and Chiefs pass on him which makes sense. The Vikings, Bears, and Jets are possibilities for Sanchez.
Well, with all the other big-time QBs staying in school (except Stafford), this makes more sense. He'll now be the #2 rated QB (behind Stafford) this year. If he returned to USC, he'd probably be the #6 rated QB in 2010. Smart move economically for him....
I think the fallacy would be assuming that a QB will go high just because he's the 2nd best QB prospect in the draft. There have been drafts where the first QB doesn't get taken until the 2nd round. There have been drafts where the first QB doesn't get taken until the 3rd round. Sanchez won't go just because he ends up grading higher than Graham Harrell (for whatever unholy reason).
Yes, I see your point. But, given that, it can only help him being #2 QB vs. #6 QB next year. At WORST, it will have a neutral impact on his ultimate draft status (as you say). And that may very-well be correct. However, at BEST, it will help him move up (say, a late 2nd-rounder (for example) for a desparately-needy QB team, versus a 4th/5th/6th-rounder next year when 5-6 QBs are rated higher than him). When there's 5-6 QB-needy teams, and only 2 decent QBs available, teams won't be as comfortable waiting around, assuming he'll keep falling (to where his talent justifies). Almost certainly, this will help him get taken earlier-than-he-should. To what extent, we'll never really know. But it sure has heck can't hurt him.
I'd bet this is why he waited until January 15 to declare. He (and his advisors) wanted to see what other QBs were going to declare. If Bradford/McCoy/Tebow/etc all came out, then maybe he would've waited until 2010 to come out (less competition possibly, and another year to try to improve his status). Since the big-names pretty much ALL stayed (except Stafford), it made sense for him to declare for 2009.
According to some people in the NFL Draft / College circles, Sanchez will now be ahead of Stafford on 3/4th's of teams draft boards. He was rated low by the "experts" on ESPN.com and others because most believed he would stay in school for another year. I have no link, just know the people.
I don't think the effect is as predictable as you guys would make it out to be. Grabbing a QB in the first round tends not to be a straight up "best player available" decision. It's a commitment. And when something unexpected happens, let's say a QB falls to a certain area of the first round that teams didn't necessarily expect? That slight fall turns into a free fall because of that fact. The teams in that area of the draft hadn't really gotten themselves comfortable with the idea of a first round quarterback, and so they pretend that Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn don't exist. If you have a bunch of talented quarterbacks coming out...you're more likely to see a bunch of teams focus in on the idea of grabbing a high investment quarterback in the draft...because they can be fairly confident in getting one of the ones available. If the consensus ends up being that there's really only one franchise guy in there, you're not going to get a whole lot of teams that make it to draft day even considering the possibility of taking a quarterback with a high pick. They'll have already made their peace with that position some time earlier in free agency, or they'll re-commit to a guy on their roster, etc. Therefore, I think the primary thing Mark Sanchez needed to focus on was becoming the best quarterback prospect he could possibly be. If you look like a franchise player, you're going to drum up the interest in you. Right now he doesn't. He's not going to get overdrafted just because Stafford is the only guy teams will look at and say is a franchise player. There's just as much chance Sanchez would get underdrafted for exactly that reason, because hardly any team will have worked up an appetite for a high round quarterback...just chalking up this draft as a bad one for the position.
I don't pretend to have contacts among NFL scouts telling me this, but I have the best luck simply working parallel to them and figuring on who I like and who I don't. And if Sanchez is rated higher on 3/4ths of the teams' boards, it's because 3/4ths of the teams out there see Matthew Stafford as an extremely overrated player that is not at all a franchise quarterback.
Personally i think if Sanchez hooks up with a good QB coach and sits and learns he could turn into a great QB in the NFL. Hes not ready to play next year though. But going into last season i thought Stafford was one of the best QB prospects i had seen, but i think he needed another year in college to. He didnt play as well as i thought he would. For me Bradford was the one QB that i thought could come in and play right away as long as he can take a pro offense in. Stafford has the best arm, but if he plays right away hes going to be erratic accuracy wise and will force balls leading to INTs. I think this is worst QB draft i can remember top to bottom and as far as QBs making an impact right away. I dont think there are any. I still believe Stafford will be good, and Sanchez could be very good as well.
I agree wholeheartedly Chris. I see no way no how that 3 quarters of pro teams have Sanchez rated over Stafford. I'm not saying Stafford is the bees knees, but I just fail to see how such an inexperienced guy who you could make a pretty good argument to have been a product of the NFL franchise of college ball is suddenly the cream of the crop?
When I saw McShay put Sanchez over Stafford on ESPN, I nearly spilled my blood samples. Yet another goof IMO. Carroll's pretty subdued so far but if he made those comments in the press conference, you know he's hopping mad behind the scenes. Not that I'm complaining of course especially if Mustain gets the nod.
