Schedules of our likely competition for playoff spots

Was going to bed.....now Im gonna drag myself to the couch to nervously watch another 4 qtrs...because you all have me convinced the Pack has to win tonight.

 

Good stuff, Pack.

 

Patriots play Carolina this week and the Bills next week actually. Also the Lions visit the Ravens this week and the Chicago game is next week


Also the Jets at Tampa could be interesting. I could see Tampa keeping that one close. I expect the Jets to win but its worth a look.

This is a huge week for Miami to win. It looks like the Jets, Ravens, Steelers, and Pats should all win. Miami has by far the toughest game and should have the fans of all the other Wild Card teams pulling for them (Miami that is).

 

Yeah man I saw that you had Carolina vs. NE earlier on this page so I know you know your stuff. Oh and BTW the Rams play the Titans at home this week.

Yes I am a schedule nerd and also correct these things in case anybody else reads them...I know you know.

My thing is Padre that the only teams I worry about right now are the Ravens, Pats, and Fins. I figure the Texans, Jags, Titans, and Steelers can all get their playoff death blow by Miami and other losses for them are only gravy. As far as the Ravens I am unsure how the tiebreaker falls so I want them to lose and of course I want the Pats to lose.

 

Well huge win today and some how some way the Fins have clawed into a tie for the last Wild Card spot (although still technically out due to a tiebreaker).

Well I am officially as giddy as a schoolgirl today and you can bet I am breaking out my Fins jersey (Ricky) this week to parade around in Titans country. I hate the Titans more than any other team outside the division and I really hope they aren't the team to knock the Fins out. If they are I might as well throw myself off a bridge for all the crap I'm going to take.



Anyway to get back on topic I think the games we need to to keep our eyes on will be week 16 and after. In Week 16 we are going to see the Ravens go to Pittsburgh, the Broncos go to Philly, and the Pats host the Jags. Then in week 17 we will see the Pats go to Houston. Week 15 will see the Pats go to Buffalo and the Ravens host the Bears and you can probably see why I am sort of discounting that week as both the Pats and Ravens should win rather comfortably. Of course we all know Miami has to win out pretty much through week 17 but week 16 is where I think Miami can find themselves possibly in the 5 spot.

Tennessee scares me more than any team left on our schedule. They are playing well enough to be in the playoffs and you better believe they will still be playing hard at 7 losses. I will say it now if Miami beats Tennessee I give Miami a 65% chance of making the playoffs.

 

Incorrect Padre, it depends on the strength of victory which is not determined yet. It's extremely close too. I'm not sure what the totals end up as.

 

Hahahhaha. Touche touche.

That's my hope as well. You know what's even nastier is that if we win out and the Patriots lose against an AFC opponent they miss the playoffs entirely and there's a good chance we get a rematch versus Baltimore.

 

BigDogs and I disagree on the NFL tie-breaker procedure.

If New England, Baltimore, and Miami all win out and Denver loses to Philly, New England would win the division.

At that point it's decided amongst the three-way tie isn't it?

 

I thought it was conference record first between three teams and then common opponents if applicable.

I don't really know though. I just heard somewhere that if Miami wins out and NE loses another game that Miami would take the division based off conference record (unless of course NE's one loss came to Buffalo).

Confusing. What I do know though is that Baltimore must lose another game or NE for Miami to even have a chance.

 

This week I am rooting for NE, IND, and NO all to lose......yes, I want my cake and will eat it too.

 

I'm pulling for Jacksonville tonight. I want their game next weekend in Foxborough to mean something to them.

Also, handing Indy their first loss would be icing on the cake.

 

It's another game where I'm torn between. Whoever wins, I'll be happy. But I'm really going for the Cowboys against the Saints on Saturday night. Hopefully the Cowboys get their **** together and give the Saints a tough game. Next week lets hope Jax beats the Patriots. How sweet would it be for Miami to be in first place?

 

Jags beating Indy tonight would be a blast
Dallas beating NO Sat would top that
Buf beating NE Sun would be a gift that keeps on giving

and

Miami beating Tenn Sun sets the stage for a wonderful week and lays it all in front of the team with HOU and PIT remaining.

thats would be AWESOME!!!!!!!

 

That's all I want for Christmas. EVERYTHING you just said. Please, Santa?

 

Well Sunday has finally almost made its way here and now its time to talk schedules again.

Personally I wanted Jacksonville to lose because I wanted that extra cushion in the WC so I am happy so far. Now tomorrow I expect to see the Falcons with a healthy Turner and Ryan beat the Jets (with a starting Sanchez which only helps the matter). Then in what could be an upset because of the weather I really want to see the NE-Buffalo game. Think about it...snow = playing to the Bills strength (running game) and away fro NE's strength (passing game). I expect NE to win but this could be closer than a lot would have thought. The third game we have to pay attention to is the Bears-Ravens game and here is another place where I see weather being a factor except this time it hurts the Fins. Obviously in bad weather the running game of Baltimore is much better than that of Chicago so I have to give Baltimore the edge and the victory. My only consolation is that the Baltimore area will will not actually see snow for the game whereas Buffalo should.

What I see happening in summary is that the Pats go to 9-5, the Ravens 8-6, and the Jets 7-7.


To change gears a bit now to the big picture I now think that it is likely (about a 65% chance) that the six seed will have 7 losses. The teams I think that will be competing for that spot will be Baltimore, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. I see the Jets getting their final eighth loss next week at Indy and the Jaguars get their eighth loss next week at NE. Then I see Pittsburgh getting their eighth loss in Miami week 17. I think Tennessee picks up their eighth loss next week against SD (hopefully Cincy beats them this week to give SD motivation). So if you're still following me I see Miami and the Ravens as the two teams left with 7 losses after week 17. I think Miami gets their 7th loss against Tennessee and I think the Ravens get theirs week 16 at Pittsburgh. Then it will go to a tiebreaker which should be tied conference wise and will go to common games I believe in which Baltimore would have the edge. So basically this is my schedule breakdown and forecast that Miami misses out on the playoffs on a tiebreaker.

Obviously I hope I am wrong on my predictions but in the end I see Miami missing out barely at 9-7. I think the Pats go 10-6 (lose last week at Houston) and win the division and Baltimore because of a tiebreaker gets the six spot at 9-7. As a note I think Denver gets in the five seed at 10-6 (lose in week 16 at Philly).



If you all want to know my biggest fear its that Miami wins out but so does Baltimore and NE to give Miami the ultimate heart breaker. However in my heart of hearts I think NE goes 10-6 (Jags and Houston will be tough games for them and I think they lose the latter on the road). If Miami can somehow beat the Titans (and I just don't see how they can) we can win the division but its a really tough road. For Miami 9-7 or 8-8 just feels right for me and everything just breaks down where Baltimore has the easiest road to that Wildcard spot ( vs Bears, at a struggling Pittsburgh, then Oakland). Although I think Pitt. can beat them I definitely don't see the Ravens losing two of those and I just think the Titans will basically eliminate Miami tomorrow. Of course in my fevered mind I still can see Tennessee beating SD after Miami and then Seattle which as a result Tennessee gets in the playoffs. I can also still see the Ravens sweeping the rest. Basically this is all a huge mess in my head lol.


So there are my ramblings on the rest of the schedules for Miami and their biggest competitors. Will someone please prvoe me wrong in a good way for Miami? Also am I crazy for running every possible scenario through my head seeing how Miami can make the playoffs?

 

Well Padre typically in soggy messy fields like the one in Baltimore running teams do better. Chicago already has enough problems and seeing them stop Rice, McGahee, and McClain just doesn't seem very possible. Baltimore just has this game I think.


Also as far as the Fins I hope you're right Padre but tell me how can Miami beat Tennessee? We don't have a good enough passing game to carve up that struggling secondary and we all know they'll be focusing on Ricky. On defense the team is coming together but something just tells me VY will just go off running the ball tomorrow. Miami's playcalling still worries me at times and for some reason I don't see us spying him enough. Weather conditions I think will help keep Johnson from exploding but he'll still probably get his 125 yards plus another 30-40 receiving with a TD or two (just his way of doing things lately).

Tennessee just seems to be the better team right now in my mind. However I really want you to prove me wrong.

Also to those who think I'm hating on the Fins...I'm not....this is simply my breakdown of this game. I watch Tennessee (sadly) just about every week living in Tennessee and I know how good they are now. If this game was in Miami I'd be a lot more confident in Miami but this game just seems ripe for the Titans to win.

 

Padre I can freak out if I want to.

Well even with a modern field did you see the pics coming from the stadium today? I mean that place looked awful. Once again though I hope your right.

Also we are on a roll but so is Tennessee (a 6-1 roll). We'll see what happens but I still don't see how Miami has enough weapons to beat this team. I am hoping with all my heart that the team I hate more than any other team outside the AFC East goes down but just not feeling it.

Feel free to keep on giving positive feedback.

 

Well I did say the Bills-pats game interested me with the Pats on the road and with snow in the forecast I do believe.

I do also think 10-6 wins the division so maybe Aqua has a shot but let me tell you this Padre containing Chris Johnson won't be as easy as MJD.

The Ravens we'll see about as well but hey I think we both agree the Jets should lose.

 

contain the edge like we did against the jags
bring middle pressure
tackle well

the weather wont be so bad 40 degrees cloudy
rain stops tonight in nash
might have to change plugs a few times to make sure footing is there
relax

 

Actually the weather could help if its bad on the field. From what I've read the temps are supposed to be around 40 (a bit colder to the skin) and partly cloudy so that's good for the game itself.

I'll try to relax.

 

In the end since Miami and Baltimore don't play each other it will come down to common games so Baltimore must lose to Pitt.

However now with Denver at 8-6 that adds another team we are gunning for...and with them at Philly next week them being 8-7 is looking good. Right now Denver is who we should be gunning for more so than Baltimore because Denver is 2-3 in our common games and if Miami beats Pitt. we'd be tied (no need praying for a Pitt. win as we need for Baltimore). Then it comes down to strength of victory. Which I believe Miami has the advantage in since we have played better opponents than Denver so far.

No matter what Miami must sweep but Miami gets in if Baltimore loses to Pitt. or if Denver loses either of their last two (looks favorable) but Miami must sweep. Oakland may have saved our behinds today and it looks likely that Denver loses in Philly next week. So Miami sweeps and Denver loses just once and we are in.

Also it's huge that Pitt. came back and beat GB for us. We needed Pitt. to be desperate and still in things next week vs. Baltimore and now we have that.

 

I tell you what Padre that Jax-NE game is the best thing that can happen to this team. I hate to say it but its probably better if NE wins...because we need to vault over JAX. You just know NE would lose to Jax and then beat Houston to give us the double screw over lol. Either way though that game will benefit Miami.

Also I think Tennessee losing isn't really needed as it only matters if just us and them are tied after week 17. Of course I want them to lose but the only team we have to have to lose is Baltimore and maybe Jax. Actually the more I think of it we are better off with NE winning this weekend and us going for the WildCard.

 

True and that's why I am saying Jax losing is the best for us. If NE loses they are still ahead of us but if Jax loses they are behind us.