Not sure what opinions are about Scott Wright and his mock drafts, but his latest update is out: http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php I'm not a fan of his latest pick for the Dolphins, but I can see his reasoning to some extent. Switching out Sean Smith for Xavier Rhodes seems like a net wash to me. The reason for letting Smith walk as I understand it, because his contract with the Chiefs wasn't out of the ballpark, was because of system fit. While obviously not the same player, Rhodes seems to have a similar skillset to Smith, so where Wright states that "Rhodes would be a nice fit in the Dolphins scheme and could step into their starting lineup immediately", I think he's only half right. Rhodes would probably step into the starting line-up immediately, but I don't know that he's such a great system fit if the Dolphins are going to more of a zone-based scheme. Desmond Trufant seems more that guy, although as high as #12? I would question that. Not that Wright is correct, but in his mock, Trufant slips into the bottom of the first round at # 30 going to the Falcons. Other notable names and my comments that seem to have some tie with Dolphins' fans hopes: Bjoern Warner checks in at # 10 going to the Titans. At # 12, I think the Dolphins absolutely are including DEs in their targets, especially all-around DEs that can pass rush, and Werner is certainly a guy to keep an eye on as to where he goes. If he falls to # 12, I think he's got to be at least a thought. Dee Milliner at # 6 to Cleveland here. Personally, I'd like Milliner, but I believe this mock is accurate in that he just won't be there when Miami selects. Lane Johnson slips in at # 11 going to San Diego, which seems like a reasonable guess. That concludes the big three tackles in the mock as Joeckel went # 1 overall to KC and Fisher went # 4 to the Eagles. If Miami wants one of the three definite first round tackles, say they don't address the tackle shortage in the rest of Free Agency (I think they will), then this mock says the Fins would have to trade up to get one. While I think this mock is likely correct that Joeckel, Fisher, and Johnson will be gone before Miami's pick, I don't see us trading up to fill the tackle void. Like I mentioned, I think we take care of getting a starting tackle in FA and draft one for depth later on... maybe a guy like Armistead. No WR is taken in this mock until the second half of the first round, and the first one taken is Cordarelle Patterson at # 17 by the Steelers. Personally, I find that questionable at best. Several teams need or might desire WRs in the first half of the round: Jets, Bills, Titans, Dolphins, Panthers to name a few. Because he seems to be in hot demand here at The Phins, it's worth noting that Tavon Austin finds himself taken at # 22, by our beloved Jeff Fisher and the St. Louis Rams. Bitter pill if that happened, to say the least. Meanwhile, if this mock is accurate, and the Dolphins are sitting at # 12 with guys like Patterson, Austin, Carradine, Lotuleilei, and Richardson on the board along with Rhodes and Trufant, well, the Fins braintrust will have a lot to think about to say the least. Ezekiel Ansah and Jarvis Jones, two pass rushers that the Dolphins could be eyeing, come off the board at # 4 and # 8, respectively. Jones' spinal condition may push him down a bit more than that. If he's in play at # 12, he's another guy I'd jot down in that list in the above bullet. Right behind the Dolphins picks, as the list two bullets above allude to, come two DTs that may be in Jeff Ireland's thoughts. Star Lotuleilei and Sheldon Richardson. The Dolphins let Tony McDaniel walk, and at least for the moment Randy Starks and Paul Soliai are set to be UFAs next year. While I'd imagine Starks will sign something of a longer-term contract and I think Odrick will eventually move inside, depth at DE is something I believe Ireland believes is critical in the NFL. Is it first round critical in this draft? Maybe, maybe not. But I don't think it can be dismissed out of hand. Obviously, this list could go on and on, but I'll save everyone the grief, and the last guy I'll mention is Tyler Eifert being nabbed in this mock at # 27 by the Houston Texans. I've seen Eifert on some guys' wish lists around here as high as # 12, and while I think that's probably too early for Eifert, I do think he'll be a first rounder going right about the #20-#25 range. I'm no expert, but that just is my gut feel. For Miami, I think that means, first, not drafting him at # 12, but second, if they covet him, they'll need to be offering a couple/three picks to move back into the first round to get him. I don't think that outside the realm of possibility, but I think it's probably more likely that they keep their picks, and maybe grab a prospect like Gavin Escobar a bit later. I'm not a guy who measures how close some of these draft websites come to nailing the actual NFL draft, so I don't know if Scott Wright is good at that or not. Plus, this wouldn't be the mock that would be measured - it would be Wright's final mock before the draft. However, I do enjoy his site, and I think he has decent insight on player rankings, player attributes, and team needs. As to this particular draft and his insight to the Dolphins, I think most outsiders will look at our team, as it stands today, and say the Dolphins are in dire need of a cornerback. I get that. How could they not? Heck, insiders see that, too. My counter to that is that Free Agency isn't done - I do imagine we'll pick up at least one CB, maybe two before FA ends - and the Dolphins can get CBs that fit their scheme and playmaker need at that position later in the draft (i.e. Jonathan Banks). In the end, I think it's no secret that the Dolphins biggest deficiency last year was scoring points. In today's NFL, point scoring is at a premium, and the Dolphins have been severely lacking in that ability for quite a few years now. Some of that has been addressed by FA this year, but I think there's more to do. Anyhow, I'll stop droning on and welcome anyone else's thoughts? What do you think? Xavier Rhodes at # 12? How thrilled or disappointed would you be?
If going by that draft, My thoughts are if your eyeballing corner in the first, trade down..take Trufant later and get more value..Than package some extra picks to move back into the first.. If you can come out with a combination of Trufant/Eifert or Trufant /Austin you are officially owning the draft, creating incredible excitement, drafting for a balanced football team like you did in free agency, and making the correct picks.
I really like the idea of Trufant/ Eifert...but I personally don't think that Trufant will be there late enough in the 1st for that to be feasible. IF we want Trufant, we better take him at 12.
While I might think that Rhodes will give the Dolphins similar play to what Sean Smith gave them, the Dolphins brass may conclude much differently. And I may be dead wrong; they (obviously) study players longer and harder than I do. Additionally, it seems a lot of the mock drafts flying around cyberspace are at least mentioning Rhodes with the Dolphins, if not making him their pick. Just as an example, SBNation's Mocking the Draft http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft/2013/3/18/4117504/2013-nfl-mock-draft-free-agency-geno-smith-luke-joeckel names Rhodes as Miami's pick, as well.
San Diego has 6 OT's under contract for 2013, and they signed King Dunlap in FA a week or so ago. They have consulted with Gaither and are going forward with him. Their OL need is far greater at OG than OT and not only that, they holes everywhere, big gaping holes. They have no pass rush and Phillips is still out there in FA. They released Jammer and could use a CB. A better question might be; what, besides QB don't they need? But all these geniuses have this team who just signed an OT, has 5 more under contract, and if they cut their current LT would gain nothing, the cap hit is the same as his salary, they all have the Chargers drafting Johnson. Idiots!!! Sorry, but there is no other appropriate response. These guys will suggest unbelievably stupid stuff just to get their top ranked players drafted where they think they should go. Why, I don't know because the draft never works that way.
he's a damn good player, speculated a while ago that he was being over looked a lot, that's not happening anymore though, his senior bowl against quality comp was outstanding, his combine was very good, and you just have to love the nature of this kid.. Personally I would select Eifert or Austin over him, but having those players as equal on my board gives me some flexibility in a trade down scenario as well, so to put into some sort of perspective, I have three players that are projected around the 15 to 30 range, two as equals that are projected in that range, if the draft unfolds for me the right way, then There is a decent chance of me pulling it off..
I've said before, and still thinkk if Star makes it to us, we trade with Dallas for their 2nd and 18th overall, and they select Star.
Why would they trade up to #12? Tampa is NOT going to take a DT, so they could easily jump to #13 for a lower cost. Carolina might be in play for him.
His 2nd Round: DATONE JONES, DE, UCLA TERRON ARMSTEAD, OT, ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF He's just applying the biggest holes theory.
Obviously Scott's mock will change as it always does before the draft. He's one of the best out there. However... What sickens me is he has us passing on Tank Carradine for Datone Jones lol. Is such a thing even possible? Kind of shocking he didn't jump on the bandwagon of putting Tank in round 1. Which is exactly where he will go.
I like Jones quite a bit, but he's more of an interior pass rusher/ big DE than Carradine, a better fit for us as an outside pass rusher who can beat DEs on an outside pass rush.
He could bulk up 15 pounds and play inside or lose 10 pounds and play outside IMO. He's just a good technically sound football player. I wouldn't take him at 12 but I'd be happy with him at the top of the 2nd.
Speculating on draft trades, well, they're just tough to forecast. If that deal was on the table, depending on who else was there, I'd probably pull the trigger on the trade. But again, just really difficult to guess at trade opps.
You're right about the theory and Wright's application (in both rounds, really), but I don't know that I'd be disappointed with taking Armstead there, especially if we snag a guy like Winston in FA. Winston's contract probably wouldn't be more than one or two years, and then, many folks here seem to want a fallback for Jonathan Martin or a guy to compete with him immediately. Armstead's probably raw, but he's got quick feet and the potential is there. He could be that guy. Pick 2b for a guy who may not start immediately? I think that's okay if we don't have any glaring holes, because if you do, then you probably will be applying that theory you mentioned.
Based on that draft, I probably would have gone Austin, Carradine and Cyprien with the first three picks.
I would have missed out on Escobar, but I just have more confidence in Carradine potentially becoming a star. As for the rest of the draft, I'd look to address TE, CB, OT, OG, RB, MLB and maybe a K. I think all of those are positions that are more easily filled with mid to late round guys or FAs.
My guess is if: 1) Jarvis Jones is off the board already, AND 2) Star Lotulelei is still available Then we will have a trade partner in the Dallas Cowboys and can gain another second. By trading down to 18, you are still in that territory where you can get one of the CBs, maybe Tavon Austin, or draft the darkhorse candidate that we've done work on... S Kenny Vaccaro.
Great write-up. One thing... IMO, Xavier Rhodes is MUCH better than Sean Smith. He's much better in coverage, and is tremendously physical where Smith is not. It isn't a wash to me. Rhodes is a big upgrade. I'd also like to mention that I see people talking about how we're going to more of a 'zone' coverage scheme. However, what I've heard is we are moving toward a quarters scheme. While a quarters scheme... technically... is, sorta-kinda a zone scheme, it's not even close to the same thing as, say, a Tampa Cover 2. It's a scheme where the secondary reads routes, works together, reacts quickly, and is usually more aggressive in coverage than a traditional zone. Rhodes might be a perfect fit. Like I said, he's very physical. It really depends upon how smart he is, IMO. http://www.miamidolphins.com/media/...-Defense/ef0be8f3-5fa7-4f7c-bd11-57cf8cf17edc
If we were able to trade down with the Cowboys, pick up another second... and we still nabbed Tavon Austin at #18... I would be beside myself. My opinion of Ireland would certainly improve. It's fun to think about, but, I'm not counting on a trade-down, though. We're still a ways away from the draft, but at the moment, I'm thinking the Phins will pick Rhodes, Austin, or Jarvis Jones at #12, with Zeke Ansah being an outside candidate. I think Rhodes or Austin would have the most impact, with Austin being my top pick. Again... at the moment.
Personally I dont see the Cowboys willing to part with a 2nd for that trade down. Not at all. Remember, last time we traded from 12 for an extra 2nd rounder we dropped to 28 not 18. We'd be very fortunate to get an extra 3rd for 12->18. They can easily go to Tampa and offer them the same deal, because it'll result in the same move. Tampa wont be taking Star.
Too risky IMO, if we really want Austin. Tampa Bay could take him at 13 and so could the Rams at 16. Not worth it to me. Take him at 12 if ya want him and be done with it.
S.Wright is the best mock specialist out there. He cranks out only a few mocks a season; so his last one seemed a little outdated. This is probably the toughest year to predict the top 10 that iv'e seen in the past 12 years or so. My gut says there will be a DL/OL available that's hard for us to pass on..with CB being the sleeper. WR is the deep sleeper. I like the whole batch, so I won't be instantly dissapointed with the selection, which is nice. Did i mention that our new logo is effin awesome ?
