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Scout's Take: The top pick in 2008 will be...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Muck, Apr 4, 2008.

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  1. Muck

    Muck Throwback Uniform Crusader Retired Administrator

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    The following was written by one of our own. I'm posting it here in lieu of our new front page, which will launch very soon. :) -Muck


    by Tim Nagle



    The top pick in 2008 will be.............Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long.

    The best lineman in the draft.

    I decided to go a different route with this report. Instead of giving a scouting report with an analysis that will bore people to death and impress no one, I decided to make this more about my opinion.

    Everyone has read some sort of report by now, so why print the same old yadda, yadda? I did research mainly on four players that may be Miami’s selection; Chris and Jake Long, Vernon Gholston and Matt Ryan. Miami will want to trade out of the top pick, but I doubt they will be able to. Taking Chris or Jake Long would be a good move, but one is better suited for Miami.

    The obvious scenario is to trade out of the pick to get more blocks to build a foundation of many needed players on a 1-15 team. The eye is to the future and there isn’t a need for this player selected to start and be polished from Day 1. There is time to groom him for the future.

    The top tier players in the 2008 draft will be drafted on how they fit the future and the scheme of the system being run. It is not as simple as the best player on the board being the selection in 2008. The most serious consideration is the team trying to fit a salary to a position. The team will have a model of what each position should budget per position and the prototype player for that position.

    Jake Long
    I sat down with my long time friend and scout for the Redskins, Joel Patten. I watched film and was carefully analyzing whether Jake would be an immediate upgrade to the Miami Dolphins offensive line. Money vs. position, this is the best and safest pick overall. Especially if the Dolphins do not trade down.

    I watched every game Jake played in for Michigan and feel very comfortable with this selection. He would anchor the offensive line, a unit in serious need of an upgrade, for years to come. Picking an offensive lineman is never a sexy pick, but building the foundation starts here. The champions of the NFL are built with solid lines. And this is a very solid start to that process.

    Run Blocking
    Jake Long is a solid run blocker and very physical at the point of attack. I noticed his first step is balanced with his weight centered and doesn’t lunge, making his huge frame a punishing obstacle that moves with good technique with each step taken. He will take his game to the opponent and is relentless. His ability to get to secondary blocks is a product of his aggressive play and motor. He finishes blocks very, very well and plays hard (with a mean streak) every down.

    I noticed that LB’s didn’t stand a chance when he got to them. LB’s are better athletes. And his long arm length gives him an advantage when run blocking to drive a better athlete. He proved that his assignment will be accomplished.

    Jake showed a significant amount of progress from his junior to senior year. His technique and footwork improved. He faced very good competition in college, which helps in the evaluation process.

    I talked with a few people close to Jake and his character is excellent, along with his study habits and commitment to football. He plays smart and doesn’t make many mistakes. In his 2007 games at left tackle, he registered 119 knockdown blocks and 15 TD-resulting blocks. He also ran a stretch of 1,700+ plays with only one penalty.

    Pass Blocking (Concern)
    Jakes pass blocking skills show slow footwork. What this means is there are more natural athletes that move a little more fluid than Jake, where he relies more on his arm strength and balance. He seems to lean back upon his heels too much on almost every passing down. Almost selling the fact that he is going to be pass blocking when faced against much quicker opponents.

    This is a flaw. He would struggle in the NFL as a rookie at left tackle against speed rushers, but can improve and this is something he can work on.

    He locks up the inside and is open outside without getting his shoulder over his hip on the turn and compensates by pushing the player past the pocket. He has warning signs of leaning, average footwork and hip turn with poor balance. He is nearly impossible to beat inside.

    Jake is a student of the game and plays aggressive. All players need coaching and he is no different. I disagree that he cannot be a left tackle. He could start at right tackle and move to left at a later point. He is capable of being a dominating right tackle and a very, very good left tackle.

    He is an upgrade over Vernon Carey and will solidify the offensive line for years to come and open holes for a great running game.

    ---

    Tim Nagle is a former NFL scout and Premium member of ThePhins.com.

    [​IMG]

     
  2. Fin-Omenal

    Fin-Omenal Initiated

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    Very nice article, I dont see how anyone can be mad at us selecting Long,
     
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  3. CrunchTime

    CrunchTime Administrator Retired Administrator

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    Outstanding writeup coming from a Pro .I often wondered why Jake Long was getting knocked as not a true LT.:up:
     
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  4. ATVZ400

    ATVZ400 Senior Member

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    Great read thanks...
     
  5. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    At first, I was hating this draft because I thought we couldnt get the value needed or deserved at the #1..
    The more I see, I think we cant actually go wrong as I think there are 3 guys whom are all going to pan out to be super-studs. Both Longs and Dorsey.
     
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  6. feelthepain

    feelthepain New Member

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    I think you'll see a few "draft gurus" acting like Miami made a big mistake by taking Jake #1 overall, if they do. Remember Jake isn't a LT he's a RT and you just don't use the #1 overall on a RT. Good thing Parcells and company are in charge cause I think they are a little more capable of understanding who we should take then the clowns at ESPN and the NFL network.
     
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  7. azfinfanmang

    azfinfanmang Premium Member Luxury Box

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    :lol: Very very well put my brother..very well put:hi5:
     
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  8. Moffius

    Moffius Season Ticket Holder

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    Nice write up! I am one of the minority in wanting to take Jake. I think the kid will be a stud at the next level. Especially with Sparano and Maser coaching him up.

    Kudos.
     
  9. phillyphinphan

    phillyphinphan Season Ticket Holder

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    very true FTP, if you can't get out of the number 1 spot, I would think that you want either a) an impact player, who will get alot of plays (i.e. get your moneys worth) or b) a player who will positvely impact you most important units (i.e. offensive/Defensive line)
     
  10. Muck

    Muck Throwback Uniform Crusader Retired Administrator

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    My case against Jake has been athleticism and feet. But if he can indeed improve and get better there, I have no qualms about the pick. I just question whether or not it's possible. That said, I haven't watched 39 or so of his games like someone else did. ;)

    And if it IS possible, I think it'd be quite beneficial to have a dominating RT in the meantime.
     
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  11. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    its been so long but it almost sounds like the tony mandarich scouting report. man i hope this guy is jumbo elliott and not mandarich if we take him. anybody remember that guy in college? to this day i'm not sure if i have ever seen a college tackle with more pancake blocks
     
  12. pocoloco

    pocoloco I'm your huckleberry Club Member

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    Jumbo Elliot > Mike Vrabel?
     
  13. feelthepain

    feelthepain New Member

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    I think people also need to realize coaching also plays an important roll in the success or failure of a player. There's also a positive to having this #1 overall pick and the money it will cost. Miami doesn't have the luxury of failure here, so you can bet they will due as much research into this pick as any in the history of the draft. I believe whomever we take, will have an excellent chance at success.
     
  14. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member

    Great article, Tim...Thanks...

    The only concern I have with taking Jake is that this class is so deep with tackles, that we could find someone later in the second or third. Or even with #32, although that seems, to me, to be the prime trade spot to acquire more picks... That would allow us to use the #1 on more of a luxury, like Chris Long, Gholsten or Dorsey. Chris seems to have fewer negatives than Jake to me...I'm no scout, but based on what is being bantered around in the media, Chris has fewer negatives and seems to be the safer, surer pick ??
     
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  15. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That was a well written article. Lots of insight, thanks. Stuff like this will make thephins.com frontpage numero uno! When can I start pimpin the site? :lol:
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2008
  16. bkbuffet

    bkbuffet Season Ticket Holder

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    There is no question that the OL needs some help. There is little question Jake would be a big help here.
    The question lies in whether or not he can be a top tier LT. As has been said, you don't take an RT with the #1 pick, no matter how good he is, and you are gambling on whether he can improve enough to be a franchise LT. This draft is deep with very good OL players.
    I believe Chris Long is the best player available. He has the athleticism and drive to be a great player. The scouting reports show very few, if any, weaknesses in his ability. He seems very well suited to make an immediate impact his first year in the NFL.

    All that being said, I know I'm no professional scout by any means. I'm just glad the Dolphins have proven talent evaluators picking for them in the draft and not me! :)
     
  17. GRT8

    GRT8 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, you aren't alone in that theory by any means. There have been many mistakes made and it is not a science. This is just my opinion and I welcome everyone else's opinion.
     
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  18. TotoreMexico

    TotoreMexico Your retarded

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    The problem I have with Jake is that I want my LT to be a dominant passblocker instead of a dominant runblocker, of course it would be great to have both in one player but that's so hard to find :sad:
     
  19. Paul 13

    Paul 13 Chaotic Neutral & Unstable Genius Staff Member

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    This is why I'm glad Sparano is our HC and Ireland is our GM and the Tuna is the Tuna... because I have full faith that they will make the correct pick. If Jake is the pick, I'll be behind it 100%. IMO, they can get a solid RT prospect who may have ability to play LT in the second round, so why take one with the first pick? They cannot get a player of C. Long's ability in the second round.. easy decision for me, but who the hell am I?
     
  20. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    Over Yonder
    Taking Jake Long will guarantee that his kryptonite, Vernon Ghoslton, will be playing in our division.
     
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  21. DonShula84

    DonShula84 Moderator Luxury Box

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    How does Jake Long grade out compared to other OT's that have been taken near the top of the draft over the last couple years? Is he as good/better than D'Brick, Joe Thomas, Gallery etc?
     
  22. Trackstar

    Trackstar Season Ticket Holder Luxury Box

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    That is a good question. I think all of them were supposed to be "future franchise" LTs. Joe Thomas is the only one of that bunch that performed like he's a franchise LT.
     
  23. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Nice, I certainly not doubt someone who has watched 39 games worth of Jake Long film, but I do have some questions:

    1. How is he an upgrade over Vernon Carey? Are the equal pass blocking LT's but Jake is a better run blocking tackle?

    2. What could Jake Long do for us that a different LT can't?

    3. Did Michigan ever use chip blocks to help Jake out?

    I like the idea of Jake Long, I think he would fit our overall strategy well, he would compliment Ronnie Brown INOW.
     
  24. Zeke0123

    Zeke0123 message board ******* Club Member

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    Mandarich should never be used to compare anyone..He was one of the first guys to abuse steriods in College and then get off of them for his Combine piss test..he dropped from a rock hard 325 to a soft 290..If you think Long is on Performance enhancing drugs you could compare them otherwise its kinda pointless.
     
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  25. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    good point. do you remember him in college? man I dont think Ive ever seen so many pancake blocks as that guy threw down :lol:
     
  26. Zeke0123

    Zeke0123 message board ******* Club Member

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    He was a Monster for sure...shame he was "enhanced" so much.
     
  27. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I wouldn't be sad to see either Long drafted, or Matt Ryan, or even Darren McFadden. Wouldn't want to see us draft Dorsey at that pick, but any of the other top-rated guys would be fine with me. We just need talent, period.
     
  28. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    All I know Gallery had 31" arms or so. :yes:
     
  29. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I went and reviewed Mandarich's combine, by the numbers he was impressive, 4.7 40, all of those pancake blocks, and out of frame blocks (his guy disappeared from the film as he was driven downfield) and "no mas" blocks, his guy just gave up..

    "But" the hype around him was noticeable...and he was not a very socialable..at all... he tried to join the supplemental draft and got suspended..stuff like that..steroids use was rumored even then...

    He did 30 reps BTW

    So I looked up the "new" Mandarich, Rob Gallery, he is faster then Jake, 4.98, but also weaker, 24 reps then 30 reps at his pro day, and has the shorter arms and his vertical was 30 inches.

    http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=58760
     
  30. gafinfan

    gafinfan gunner Club Member

    Thanks Muck and that was a great write up Tim. I have no idea who we will pick at #1 but, for me, Jake Long is the BPA for the needs of the Miami Dolphins. If we really are going to have a smash mouth running game then we need the horses up front to get the job done. We are at #1 and if we can't move then we must take the guy that will give us the most bang for the buck from day one.
     
  31. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Agreed I think we select the big guy from Michigan.
     
  32. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Over Gholston the Buckeye?

    What is the world coming to?

    We really can't go wrong, Jake, Dorsey, Chris Long, Gholston, we could use anyone of those players.
     
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  33. Fin Fan In Cali

    Fin Fan In Cali Dolphin fan since 1970 Luxury Box

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    Great Job Brother Tim!:up:
     
  34. BuckeyeKing

    BuckeyeKing Wolves DYNASTY!!!!

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    Is it bad if I'm secretly wishing to draft Gholston?

    :lol: agreed.
     
  35. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    That's why its so hard to trade down this year. The top 6 or 7 players are so close, that there aren't any teams that really care which one falls to them. I'd love to be at #3 or 4.
     
  36. GISH

    GISH ~mUST wARN oTHERS~

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    Dude, we deserve it. How long did we have to suffer without having any Buckeyes in Miami? back to back #1's would be sweet, especially with the chance to get Laurenitis or Jenkins next year. We may need to change our colors to scarlet and grey.
     
  37. dgb11112

    dgb11112 Hall Of Fame

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    Yes I posted this the other day when it was stated the Vernon Carey was moving over to LT.
     
  38. Jets81

    Jets81 Junior Member

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    I hope your right. Anything that prolongs the drafting of Chris Long is a good thing in my book.
     
  39. bran

    bran Senior Member

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    very good post
    i wil lbe happy with either long, dorsey or gholston i think they are all going to be studs at the next level i would prefer chris long but will be happy with each due to the fact they improve are team in numerous ways
     
  40. PhinsRock

    PhinsRock Premium Member Luxury Box

    Good read! I agree (NOT why its a good read)

    The beauty of it is we simply are not likely to go wrong with either J. Long, C. Long, or Dorsey. I like your reasoning, well written article, thanks for the effort and work. Great thread, 5 stars form me. Now get ready . . . INCOMING! :crapstrom: :lol:
     

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