Shortened Keys to the Game

Guys, I've been pretty busy with stuff at home. My wife broke her ankle a few days ago, and my son was sick at the end of the week. As such, I haven't had a good deal of time to do a column for this week.

But this is what I have. I haven't even had time to truly proofread it.

The Miami Dolphins all but shot their playoff hopes in the foot with last week’s loss to the Buffalo Bills. Amazingly, the Dolphins are not completely out of the playoff picture, and do have a mathematical change to challenge for a spot in the post season. Unfortunately, the Dolphins face a New England team that has not lost back to back games since 2006. If Miami can win this game, they will be only one game behind New England for the Division lead – remarkable considering the team’s 0-3 start.

Keys to the Game

Miami

1). Allow for more multiple coverage looks by its secondary to help get pressure on Tom Brady.

This obviously is much easier to write than it is to actually do given the talent on New England’s offense. It is no secret that New England and Tom Brady will throw the ball effectively. But, this point is not so much about controlling the run or pass, but simply the offense in general. The reason: try and force New England into 3rd and long by being more effective on early downs. Most teams struggle with 3rd and long situations, and the New England Patriots are no different.

Brady’s efficiency drops to mortal levels when he does face a 3rd and long, completing 55.2% of his passes in such situations. Considering Brady’s 65.7% completion rate in general, his drop off to 55.2% is something every defensive player would rather face.

However, it doesn’t matter how well you play 3rd down if the defense gives up too many big plays on first and second down. Brady has a completion percentage of 68.8% on second down, which makes it imperative that the Dolphins find a way to slow down the New England offense before it ever reaches 3rd down. Many people would now say that the Dolphins should simply allow the Patriots to run. That way, the ball is out of Brady’s hands, and it slows the game down a bit – giving Miami a chance to hang around.
Such a consideration sounds good in theory, but in reality Tom Brady is one of the best play action passers in the NFL. Brady routinely fools the defense with his fakes, leaving the ball on his hip better than most of his peers. Allowing New England to run at a better rate will likely only allow Brady to have more room in the secondary on play action fakes.

Another aspect that works against Miami allowing New England to run the ball more effectively is that New England might just be too effective at it. New England is not a great running team, but is averaging 114.5 yards per game on the ground. Over their last 5 games, they have generated 455 yards on 115 carries – 3.95 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, the Miami run defense has been on a downward spiral for nearly 2 months. In the last 6 games alone, Miami has allowed 806 yards on 173 carries – 4.66 yards per carry. 116 yards of that total has come on 22 carries by quarterbacks. So, all other runners other than quarterbacks have generated 690 yards on 151 carries – 4.57 yards per carry. The Miami Dolphins have allowed 1,188 yards rushing for the season.

Another way most consider stopping Brady is with the blitz. But, like most great quarterbacks, Tom Brady can excel in beating the blitz. Brady has a 66.4% completion percentage against the blitz; not exactly what the Dolphins would like to see, especially considering that neither Akin Ayodele nor Channing Crowder are great blitzers. Therefore, for the Dolphins to blitz, they many times have to rely on a player from the secondary to help generate more than a “normal” rush.

The issue for the Dolphins when they do rely on secondary players to blitz is that there really is no veteran experience in the secondary other than Gibril Wilson or Yeremiah Bell. Both safeties are somewhat limited in their coverage ability in their own right. Therefore, there are a limited number of blitzes and coverage combinations that the coaches likely have true confidence in the players operating without a blown assignment. The NFL is about matchups, but a matchup is not always dictated by athleticism alone. If a secondary cannot matchup effectively in some coverages due to inexperience, why run that coverage?

I am not saying the Dolphins secondary cannot run a great deal of varying coverages, only that they likely cannot run all of them at a high rate – due to both the lack of experience at the corner position, and the limited range of the safeties to make for any gaff by the young players. Some fans question why we do very little complex blitzing like many other teams, and the reality may be that we are simply not ready to do so given our secondary. Coaches live and due by putting their players in the best possible position for the player to succeed.

Running coverages that may allow mental lapses or technique at a higher rate does not do anything but allow big plays. It may often times be better to keep it simple, allowing the young players their best chance of success. This does not mean that the secondary will stop big plays, only that they may have a better chance of being in the right position to stop them.
In layman’s terms, the more these young players have to think through a coverage, the more likely they will be to hesitate, or simply miss their assignment. Anytime a defense has to think more than react limits the effectiveness of the defense. Miami fans above all should know this – the Wildcat is predicated on such doctrine, albeit along with others.

The lack of confidence in the secondary to not make a mental error may also explain why we do not enjoy the same success on defense as the game wears on. As other teams make their adjustments, we have trouble matching them as we cannot continue to throw multiple coverages onto the field. We can scheme correctly for what we have seen on film, and had time to prepare for. But, in game adjustments may be too many to make for a young secondary.

In reality, the Dolphins need to pressure Tom Brady with only 4 men – which means either Porter or Taylor will be asked to drop into coverage. Porter is adequate at this stage of his career, although he did miss practice this week with a sore knee. Jason Taylor is not as experienced at dropping back into space, which may limit his ability to do on with consistency.
This also plays into the defense’s ability to alter coverages and matchups within the secondary as Miami’s linebackers are liabilities in coverage, putting more responsibility in the hands of the secondary. Again, why put players in positions where they are likely to fail; such as Ayodele or Crowder. The coaching staff may favor a chance of making a play over the likelihood of getting no play at all from either Crowder or Ayodele.

If New England is allowed to continuously have 3rd down and short situations, play action only becomes more involved; which places more stress on an already limited secondary. Play action also involves Miami’s middle linebackers more than they should be. Miami must find a way to bring pressure from maybe four players only, allowing for one more player in coverage.

Regardless of what may be a lack of confidence in their secondary’s ability to handle complex coverages without a blown assignment, the coaches must try and work these into the flow of the game. Tom Brady is too good to allow him to see the same repetitive vanilla looks on defense. He will simply pick you apart. Brady typically likes to get the ball out of his hands quickly; which only helps to stymie a defense’s ability to generate sacks and pressure. If Miami can force Brady to hold the ball for a half a second longer, it may allow Miami’s pass rush to make Brady move.

But, if Miami cannot find a way to generate pressure without bringing blitzes that involve secondary players, or rely on vanilla coverages they will likely lose this game by 10 points or more.


2). Score more than 20 points.

The Dolphins are just the type of team that can mount long, time consuming drives. The offense must make good on those opportunities this week. Last week the Dolphins did leave points on the field when Ricky Williams was intercepted in the end zone on a half back pass. It is uncertain how those points would have affected the outcome of the game, but no offense, especially one with a quarterback making only his 9th start can afford to miss on scoring opportunities.

The key for the Dolphins scoring opportunities is that the offense must reach the red zone. New England’s defense, although ranked 7th in scoring defense, giving up only 18.4 points per game. However, New England allows 62.5% of all red zone trips to result in a touchdown – good for 27th in the league.

New England allowed the Saints to reach the red zone 5 times. New Orleans scored points on every one of those trips – 3 TD’s and 2 FG’s, or a 60% TD scoring rate on red zone trips. New England does make it difficult to get to the red zone, but once there, an offense has a very good chance of putting points on the board. The Dolphins may have an advantage in this area over most teams simply due to their ability to run the football. The closer a team gets to the goal line, the harder it is to pass; therefore the ability to run the football becomes paramount.

The issue for the Dolphins is that they must actually reach the red zone. New England only allows an opponent an average of 2.27 scoring attempts per game – tied for 2nd place with the Houston Texans. However, on the road, New England allows 2.8 attempts per game on the road. The game is in Miami.

Conversely, Miami’s offense generates 3.3 red zone scoring attempts per game – good for 11th, however at home Miami averages 4.2 red zone trips. When Miami does get the chance to score within the red zone, they are 3rd with a 69.2% success rate. Basically, Miami must find a way to get into the red zone; if they do they have a very good chance of coming away with points. If they do not, Miami’s offense does not have the type of explosive playmakers to generate long scoring plays.

One may question why I picked 24 points as bench mark for the Dolphins to score. The reason is that New England has only scored more than 30 points only 4 times this season. Essentially, if the Dolphins score 24 points, they have a good chance to either have a chance to win or may win the game.
The question for the Dolphins is how will they reach the red zone? Miami may be without center Jake Grove; who was signed specifically to deal with the larger nose tackles that exist in the AFC East. If Grove does miss this week’s game, the Dolphins may struggle to run the ball with much consistency as Joe Berger will take over. Berger may be an adequate fill in for Grove as he is not a weak player.

Berger can absorb the defenders initial surge well as he tends to play with sound body positioning. Berger shows a wide stance with adequate knee bend which allows him to sit into his blocks without having to give up much ground. The question remains though, can he do it against a 350 lb man as opposed to the smaller defensive tackle he has faced the last two weeks?
Berger is stiff through his hips however, and does not open his hips well at all. If a defender can get even with Berger on an up the field rush he will likely beat Berger to the spot. Berger also does a good job of getting his hands on his opponent around the armpits, although he does not always extend his arms. This could be an issue as it does allow defenders into his chest more than one would like to see. Wilfork is a belly to belly type player, so Berger’s tendency to allow defenders inside could play into Wilfork’s hands.

If Miami cannot control Wilfork, they will have to run outside, or ask Chad Henne to move the offense. If the Dolphins choose to run outside, they will have to attend to Jared Mayo. Running outside is not necessarily what Ricky Williams or Lex Hilliard are best at. Williams is much more of a north and south type runner at this stage of his career, and Hilliard is very much a bowling ball who would rather seek out contact than avoid it.

Mayo is an athletic player who is probably best suited to roam and make plays. Mayo has outstanding speed, which allows him to make plays on the boundary with ease. The best way to attack Mayo may be by running straight at him.

The former Tennessee star does have issues when asked to take on interior lineman one on one. This is not to say that he is a liability in this scenario, only that he is best suited to shoot gaps rather than playing off the blocks of offensive lineman. This makes Joe Berger’s ability to handle Wilfork all the more important. If Miami is forced to run outside more often, it plays into Mayo’s ability to chase down the ball carrier. However, if Berger does do a decent job on Wilfork Miami should have some success running the ball.
Miami is also working Nate Garner into the lineup at left guard in place of Justin Smiley, who has had a nagging shoulder injury. Smiley was never a stunning in line blocker, but he was an experienced veteran. Garner decent straight line speed and appears adequate as a pulling guard.

One issue he does have is that he tends to bend at the waist rather than through his knees. This trait tends to make the former Arkansas Razorback lean into some of his blocks more than he needs to. Players with this quality tend to have issues with quick one gap defenders with good hands.