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Should the Phins gamble on Gurley?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DolPhinPhan7, Apr 29, 2015.

  1. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Active Member

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    I haven't been on this board since December when the Dolphins were out of it so you guys might have been debating this a bunch in the recent months.

    Last night the Four Letter had some weird mock draft where they brought their talking heads up to represent each team to pick each player. No trades allowed though.

    When James Walker went up for the Phins he could have picked Gurley but he went with DeVante Parker from Louisville.

    Is Gurley or even Gordon worth a first rounder? Lamar is good but he's not great, and this team needs to be able to run better.

    Can Gurley be great? Or if one of the Top 3 receivers drop to them, is that a no brainer?

    I just don't want the Phins to take a Defensive player.
     
  2. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Rosen Staff Member Club Member

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    Gurley is not my first choice, but at the same time, if my prefered players are gone, I'll be happy with the Fins taking him. I think that he has a lot of potential, but there's clearly the injury risk - both long term, and the risk that he may not be ready to play week 1.
     
  3. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    If there is not a WR they love, then yes! LB and OL is deep this draft. Get a guy that will change games for you in the first round!
     
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  4. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    My pick would be Gurley if he is still on the board when the Dolphins select n round one. The only question regarding Gurley, IMO is whether he will be ready to play immediately or will his ACL surgery prevent him from from being available until at least some time after the regular season begins.

    I believe he is the best offensive talent in this draft and with him and Miller on the roster, the Dolphins would likely have the best RB duo in the NFL. He would also give the Dolphins the type power back they need on short yardage and near the goal line they have been missing in recent year.

    Unlike you, if they can't get Gurley, I would prefer they draft a defensive player in the first round. Their need at CB and LB are greater than their need at WR and OG at this time.

    Grimes appeared to decline as the season went along last year and I really don't know if they have another starting caliber CB on their roster at this time.

    Jenkins showed last year he can be a productive LB when healthy. I have never been a big fan of Misi and I don't think he is the answer at the MLB position. McCain might be able to step up and be a more productive player this season, but the fact the coaching staff showed little confidence in him as the season progressed last year, has to be a concern heading into the 2015 season.

    Safety and DT are also areas of need for the Dolphins, but I would be extremely surprised to see the the Dolphins take a player for either of these positions in the first round.

    For me, it is Gurley or else concentrate on upgrading the defense in round one.
     
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  5. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    The thing with Gurley is not about his knee and the potential for future problems stemming from that knee, because I believe after fully healed the chances that knee gets re-injured are about as low as any other RB that didn't have a knee injury; but the issue is will he be ready to start the season and when he starts, will he be at full strength quickly or will it take him time to get back into form.


    These are important because the Dolphins are in win-now mode and they cannot afford a first round pick that minimally contributes or doesn't contribute at all.
     
  6. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    The Dolphins should ABSOLUTELY draft Todd Gurley if he is there at #14. Once in a decade talent.
     
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  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Rb has been so devalued, to me Gurley would be great value as Rb has the FASTEST offensive impact of any skill position on offense.

    Still, #1 pick Rb's in the last couple of years have not panned out, so doubt we take him
     
  8. Mrtree

    Mrtree Juan Huron's agent Club Member

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    Ten years ago Gurley would have been going top 3-5. How the times a change.
     
  9. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    My view is that Tannebaum is building for the future and for him the future starts in 2016. The draft this year is merely the prelude to a new coaching staff in 2016 and one more draft in 2016 which will help them fill the remaining holes on the roster.

    While Ross might expect the Dolphins to make the playoffs in 2015 for Philbin to keep his job. Tannebaum was hired for the long term and I would be extremely surprised if he even includes Philbin in his thinking when it comes to 2016 and beyond.
     
  10. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    Why keep him and extend him then if he's not in their plan for the future? I think Ross still very much likes Philbin and wants him to succeed. While you might be right in thinking Tannenbaum is looking to the future, I don't think Philbin nor Hickey are approaching it that way, they're in win-now mode and I don't think Gurley factors into that. Gordon on the other hand, will impact from day one, if you want to go the RB route.
     
  11. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Gurley and Gordon are both first round talents and either IMO would have huge impacts in Miami. I see them both as potentially special players and in Lazor's offense the run sets up everything. I also think that despite decent stats that Miller was not an effective runner when the defense knew it was coming. He simply wasn't a guy who could get yards on his own. So I do believe that both backs would be good picks. Some have gone as far as to say Gurley is the top talent at any position in this draft (most don't feel that way, but it's been said). Gurley runs with power and has outside speed. He also almost never fumbles. But Gurley does have some issues that concern me. Many compare him to Marshawn Lynch and it's an appropriate comparison in terms of running style. But Lynch's best quality is that he rarely misses time. That's incredibly rare for power backs. That has not been Gurley's strength. He's missed significant time with injury two of the years and if you watch his games, he gets dinged up often and has to leave for a bit. And now he's going against bigger better opponents. Also Gurley missed time for violating NCAA rules (getting paid for signing autographs). The specific rule doesn't matter as he can get paid for signing all the autographs he wants in the pros. But it obviously was an incredibly bad decision. It seems doubtful that he didn't know it was against the rules. That sounds like something most everybody knows is against the rules. His wonderlich was low so maybe he is that dumb? But if he isn't that dumb and he did know, did he just not care about his team mates or the consequences? This is a minor concern for me since it was a one time thing compared to the multiple injuries, but it speaks to the issue of availability which has clearly been a weak point for him in college. Would we be happy with the pick four years from now if he's missed significant parts of the season 2 of those 4 years? Another concern is that Gurley was behind a great OL. He didn't have to deal with much trash in the backfield and when he did, he rarely overcame it. There was also no drop off when his back-up came in. His back-up was highly regarded, but it does beg the question whether Gurley is really all that special or just the product of a special line.

    Gordon has no off-field concerns. His work ethic is legendary. I'm not talking about the standard "he's a hard worker" stuff. He's the guy team mates would see still working out when they drove home from parties. He's the guy who would call up team mates ridiculously early in the morning to "come get better today". He's the type that lifts his team when he enters the game. And Gordon almost never misses games. On the field, he was excellent. He doesn't have great top speed, but he has a ton of long runs due to his elite acceleration. Wisconsin's OL wasn't as good as past years (and not as good as Georgia's) so many of those runs he had to navigate trash in the backfield. He excels at getting skinny and squeezing through seemingly invisible holes. And he's excellent at making that player on the second level miss (hence the many long runs). The most common comparison is Jamal Charles. IMO he looks like a slower Charles on inside runs, but like Arian Foster on outside runs. Personally I have Gordon and Gurley about even talent wise, but give Gordon a significant edge due to work ethic, leadership and durability. I know that league opinions are mixed. I would guess 60% have Gurley higher on their board and 40% have Gordon higher.

    I prefer Gordon but would be happy, yet fearful with Gurley. I expect Gurley to recover in time to play this year, but I would always be worried that would injure himself again and miss time. And with power backs in general, they rarely last long so he could be a beast for a couple of seasons and then fall off the cliff.
     
  12. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Miller is a special back. I would in no way draft Gurley at 14.
     
  13. Larryfinfan

    Larryfinfan 17-0...Priceless Club Member



    Thing is, Sum...I don't think that Tannenbaum and Hickey are in a "win now" mode like Philbo is...they are running this draft and I don't think Philbo's tenuous situation will have any bearing for them...

    I don't have a problem with Gurley or even Gordon at 14... Parker is fine with me too. In one of the mocks I even saw Bud Dupree (I guess to take DJ's place) as an option that I'd be ok with... I just don't want to see them reach for someone in the name of need...go BPA at 14...
     
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  14. Sumlit

    Sumlit Well-Known Member

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    You think Hickey survives a poor season and a Tannenbaum purge? I'm not so sure. I think he could be in the win-now-for-job boat just as Philbin, maybe not in the same level of desperation though.

    I do agree with Gurley for the future mentality, as my only issue is his readiness for this season, not the long-term health of the knee.
     
  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh Club Member

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    The only "need" this team has, is better players.

    Tannehill hasn't reached Brady/Rodgers status where he's so good the rest of the team is almost irrelevant (though I think he will come close to that level when its all said and done). So what we need to do is bring in talent anywhere we can. The only three guys how aren't replaceable at this point are Tannehill, Wake & Suh (and Wake will be off this list soon).

    So yes, draft for need, as long as we aren';t thinking a specific position is a need, because it isn't.....special players are the need.
     
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  16. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    No he isn't.
     
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  17. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito. Club Member

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    Exactly. In the salary cap era, you are always going to have holes. Miami can keep on playing whack-a-mole or get some dang talent!
     
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  18. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is a great write-up. With all the Todd Gurley talk it kind of shows how Miami could still favor Gordon and wind up selecting him. I could certainly live with that. Gurley's injuries do worry me and I'm not sure he's as elite or as physical as people think. I believe there are probably other more efficient ways Miami would go about adding "physicality" to the team. Gurley isn't going to be a round-1 selection merely because of his size. It's the speed and totality of his skills that impress people.

    However, in what I watched of Gurley, he faced a lot more contact than Gordon so I don't think the lack of injuries in Gordon's history proves he's going to be better at that than Gurley at the next level. Gordon is going to have to prove that he can stay healthy against bigger and more abusive NFL-sized defenders. Gordon is also going to have to prove that he can be productive without a dominant O-line. From what I've seen of Melvin Gordon, his offensive line was clearly better (we know it was certainly more experienced than Gurley's) and the defenders he faced were often smaller and slower guys versus typical SEC competition.

    Here's what I wind up asking myself...

    Can Melvin Gordon be special behind Miami's O-line?
    Can Todd Gurley stay healthy behind Miami's O-line?

    I'm not sure either one of those things has a definitive answer. That's my only hesitation. I think Gurley's skill-set fits better with what Miami needs, but that doesn't mean he'd be successful there.
     
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  19. Itsdahumidity

    Itsdahumidity X gonna take it from ya

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    [​IMG]
     
  20. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That would be the correct answer I think.

    Miller could be part of a special backfield but he's not an elite RB just by himself.
     
  21. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    With all the needs this team still has and will be unable to fill in just one draft, this is likely another 8-8 team in 2015. Ross gave Philbin an extension simply because he has the money and that is just the way he does things as an owner.

    He tried to hire Harbaugh and when it didn't work out, he gave Sparano a two year extension on his contract and still fired him in the middle of the following season.

    This team now is the responsibility of Tannebaum and I think Ross will sit down with him after the 2015 season and decisions will be make about who the new head coach will be and whether or not Tannebaum wants Hickey to remain as the teams GM.

    Since player personnel decisions seem to now be totally being made by Tannebaum and Hickey, without much if any input from Philbin and the coaching staff. I can certainly see a scenario where Hickey remains and Philbin and the coaching staff are fired if the Dolphins once again fail to make the playoffs.

    Ross hired Philbin and Tannebaum is basically being forced to work with him this coming season. But as head of football operations, I just have to wonder if he is as sold on a mediocre Head Coach as the owner is. I seriously doubt it.

    I have always felt since his hiring that Tannebaum was building this team for 2016 and beyond and I still feel that way.
     
  22. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Waynes, Sherff, L. Collins.
     
  23. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    I just don't see Miller as a special back. He isn't a big threat as a receiver out of the backfield. He isn't great at breaking tackles and he doesn't get the tough yardage on third and short or near the goal line. He is also not a great pass blocker.

    He has good speed to be able to run for yardage when he has a hole, but he doesn't have the moves to create space when the hole is not there.

    Miller is a decent back who really should be used more as a change of pace back than an every down type RB. I think he would be more effective if he was paired with Gurley or Gordon,but as the #1 RB for the Dolphins, he is okay, but certainly not special, IMO.
     
  24. rafael

    rafael Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think you'll find that most people who watched the games considered Georgia's OL to be superior last year. IMO it wasn't really close. Gurley hit people more often but it was usually DBs several yards down field. Wisconsin had a great reputation but even their fans admit that it was sub-par compared to past years.

    I think Gordon would be effective behind Miami's line b/c he'd have to deal with the same trash behind the line that he had in Wisconsin last year. He's just better at making people miss and while Gurley has more power, few backs are going to make their living running over NFL D-lineman. Nothing is perfect, but I think the Auburn game is the best comparison we have. Both Georgia and Wisconsin played Auburn last year. Both Gurley and Gordon had very good games. Auburn's defense was excellent talent wise and about as close as you're going to find to an NFL style defense in college. Georgia's pass offense was much better so there was more focus on Gordon, especially early on, but in the end Gordon had the far better game. Actually that was the case if you looked at common opponents and vs SEC numbers for Gordon and Gurley. I don't have the link anymore, but somebody did a common opponents and vs. SEC comparison and Gordon was the more successful back in those situations. As you say there are no definitive answers, but IMO the odds of Gordon being special at the next level are pretty good.
     
  25. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Only twice in his career has Adrian Peterson averaged more yards per carry than Miller did last year. There's a lot of variables that go into that and ypc isn't a great metric. But Miller was very good last year and his ypc was very indicative of his performance across the season.
     
  26. DevilFin13

    DevilFin13 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/todd-gurley-2015-nfl-draft/

     
  27. BlameItOnTheHenne

    BlameItOnTheHenne Taking a poop

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    Agreed, but it's not like running back is a black hole. The team has more important needs.
     
  28. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    I am not saying Miller is a bad back. I take issue when people throw out the words "Special" and "Great" when describing players, when clearly they are not.
     
  29. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    I agree 100%. I am would be pretty indifferent if we took Gurley actually. I wouldn't be mad, but I wouldn't be jumping up and down either.
     
  30. UCF FINatic

    UCF FINatic The Miami Dolphins select

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    To add to Raf's point look at how the Georgia back up HBs did when Gurley went down. Nick Chubb, a freshman came in and put up similar numbers to Gurley. Chubb rushed for over 113 yards for the last 8 games of Georgia's season; 6 out of those 8 games he ran for 140+ yards. He ran for over 200 yards in 2 of those 8 games. This NEEDS to be taken into account while evaluating Gurley in my opinion.
     
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  31. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Great point.

    Its not about plugging holes or having the best depth chart. It's assembling the mix of players needed to run a scheme and win games. I see improving the run game as the pivotal point so a back to pair with Miller is high on my list, the trickle down effects adding a Gordon or Gurley would be immense.

    It it allows the offense to maintain balance throughout the game, not just for the 15 or so carries that Miller can handle. It helps keep Tannehill upright, opposing defenses honest, our defense off the field and fresh. Tannehill isn't an elite QB but if he can pick his spots he'd sure look like one. Ask Russell Wilson.
     
  32. Piston Honda

    Piston Honda Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    My concern with Gurley is durability, for that reason I prefer Gordon. Not sure I'd spend a 1st on either guy though bc CB and pass rusher are so much harder to find in later rounds than a RB.
     
  33. CrunchTime

    CrunchTime Administrator Retired Administrator

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    Ah...No. He is a good back ....but seems to run out of steam during crunchtime.We need a feature everydown back and Gurley would fit that role.Great receiver and blocker.No need to take him out .The Lazor offense works best when there is a good running game.:yes:
     
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  34. Aquafin

    Aquafin New Member

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    damn it this was what I have been trying to tell you guys that we need a game changer with our first round draft picks. I said it when we took Jake Long , and I said it two years ago .
     
  35. CashInFist

    CashInFist Well-Known Member

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    This is why I like Gurley over Gordon. Todd Gurley is a 3 down RB. Melvin Gordon is not, imo.
     
  36. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Totally agree. Miami should be a team that moves towards being more physical on offense in general. Everything they do right now is very finesse. I'm not saying they should try and mimic Seattle by any stretch but the goal should be to optimize Lamar Miller's total attempts in such a way that he can stay healthy and remain explosive throughout the game and to avoid putting the game entirely on Tannehill's shoulders. They have no one with which to do that however. The trickle down effect from adding an elite RB would definitely be something, I agree.
     
  37. miamiron

    miamiron There's always next year

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    Special but not in a good way would be his drop percent
    Only 8 players in the NFL had more drops(7) than Miller had last season

    And of ALL running backs Miller had the most dropped passes in the NFL
    A drop percent of `13.5 % is terrible
     
  38. jw3102

    jw3102 season ticket holder

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    It should be noted that the RB's at Wisconsin have had a lot of success running behind their offensive line for several seasons.

    If you are going to judge Gurley based on the fact he had a talented offensive line in front of him. It is only fair to give a lot of the credit to the offensive line of the Badgers for Gordon's yardage in 2014.

    The fact is that when Gordon played against the one great defense the Badgers played last season, Ohio State. He looked like a very ordinary RB in that particular game.

    I think he will be a good RB in the NFL, but I just feel that a healthy Gurley can end up being the next Adrian Peterson.
     
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  39. dolfan22

    dolfan22 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    I'd be shocked if the Dolphins rolled the dice on Gurley , especially with the verification that DJ is "officially" the biggest draft bust in team history .

    May be a risk for different reasons but still a risk that this frnachise can't have go against them imo . Too many options including Gordon IF they want or think they need a RB high ( I don't ) .

    Maybe some team is enticed to trade up to pick 14 if Gurley is there , that would be sweet , maybe start to cleanse the pretty awful taste of draft dissapointments this team seemingly can't not order from the menu.
     
  40. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    With respect to your view, I couldn't disagree more.

    An objective look at the Dolphins roster indicates that the team is largely average across the board with few, if any, exceptional talents. Suh and Wake are the only exceptional talents I see that could have a direct impact on winning percentage. Albert is very good but he's a offensive tackle so his influence is not as direct. Neither the QB, RB, WRs, LBs, or DBs are elite players at this point, with the only possible exception being Grimes.

    Risk is actually exactly what a team like the Dolphins should be thinking since not only their roster but the record is perpetually mediocre.


    I'm honestly not trying to sound like a big Debbie Downer so don't take that the wrong way. I'm just giving you the straight dope here, Miami may not be as good as you think they are if you are taking a stand that risk is a bad thing. Miami is starving for elite talent. That's really the one thing I don't see much of in Miami right now. The players that people will point to like Miller and Landry are not elite, they are complementary.
     
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