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Simple playoff picture: we need to win out and loser of Sunday night finish 11-5

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by frozenfin, Dec 3, 2010.

  1. frozenfin

    frozenfin Well-Known Member

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    After reviewing the NFL wild card tie-breaker rules, I think if we win out to 11-5 and the loser of the game between the Jets or the Patriots finish 11-5 (or worse!), we will make the playoffs regardless of who beats who to get them to 11-5.

    The important piece to note is when a wildcard tie happens with two teams in the same division, the tie breaker procedure to follow is the divisional tie breakers not the regular wild card tiebreaker. Difference between the two is in division tie breakers, conference record and strength of victory are counted AFTER common game record and division record. The division tie breakers go 1. Head to Head, 2. Division record, 3. Common game record, Conference record

    So if the Jets at 11-5, we would tie on division record if the Jets beat either Pats or Bills but lose to the other (but we would win the tiebreaker if Jets lose to both, go Bills!). As far as common game record, all of the Jets and Fins remaining games are common games, so at this level it is irrelevant who the Jets beat or don't beat going forward because we already hold the better record as we beat the Packers and the Jets didn't. If the Jets and Dolphins both finish 11-5, we would beat the Jets in common game record of 9-5 vs 9-5.

    If the Pats finish 11-5, we would automatically beat them on division record 4-2 vs 3-3 as the Pats would have lost to the Jets twice and us once but we would lose to Pats and Jets only once each.

    Am I right, or did I misinterpret anything? Forget strength of schedule and strength of victory, it breaks down very well for us if we win out and the loser of Jets/Pats loses to us and one more of their games, doesn't matter which one.

    Correction: the Jets would tie us in common game record if they finish 11-5 by beating Bears & Bills and losing to us, Pats, and Steelers. That is the ONLY scenario I see that brings us to the SOV tie breaker.

    http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures
     
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  2. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    No offense but you missed one glaring piece of information.
    Just like last season.

    We won't win out.
     
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  3. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Oh, you were right last yr, this yr however, it is my turn..:evil:

    Jest also have the toughest remaining schedule.
     
  4. muscle979

    muscle979 Season Ticket Holder

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    Tim Graham keeps insisting in his blog that we need to win out and have the Pats or Jets lose four of the next five. So basically he's trying to say there's no way we could win a tiebreaker against either team. I'm not sure if that's accurate.
     
  5. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    If only you knew how badly I want you to be right Pod. :up:
     
  6. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Graham even mentioned he had us going 11-5 and still missing the playoffs, what he is using is "ESPN's power rankings".

    Which is of course, somewhat stupid, but that is BSPN, using such rankings "and winning percentages" to make such statements is bizarre on his part.
     
  7. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    I think what frozenfin is saying is it doesn't matter "who" the jets lose to AFC or NFC as all they can do is match our win vs the Packers if they beat the Bears, if they lose to the Bears and Pats and Dolphins it is just as good as if they lost to the Steelers or Bills.

    This is one of the reasons why I'm still optimistic Aqua, if we win out, and the Jets lose on MNF we only need one more loss in any of those three games vs the Steelers, Bears or Bills.
     
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  8. BicketyBam

    BicketyBam No Fist Pumps Allowed

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    If the Jets have to win the last game of the year against the Bills at home to make the playoffs, there is no way they are losing it.

    The Jets need to beat one of the following: Pats, Fins, Squeelers. If they do that and beat the Bills at home, there is no way Miami can tie them. None.

    sent from my EVO 4G
     
  9. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    I'm entitled to my opinion.
    Sorry it doesn't live up to you criteria. If you don't like it don't read it. :wink2:

    I know the information we have seen it in like 8 threads here. Nothing like starting another one so you can come along and ***** at me. Who the hell are you telling me what I can post anyway? I think that anyone who buys into this scoreboard watching garb with 5 games left is fooling themselves anyway. When is the last time you honestly controlled the outcome of an NFL football game. Yep...Never. So your opinion doesn't mean squat.

    Besides you are wrong about the Dolphins a lot. :lol:
     
  10. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    So embarrassing yourself by becoming a Patriots fan is going to somehow will the Dolphins into the playoffs.

    We really need a clown smiley folks. :up:
     
  11. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Exactly, these next two games for the Jets and for us will shape the end of the season.

    Now there is another path, "if" the Jets defeat the Pats, and the Pats lose to the Packers, if we win out the game in Foxboro will be for a WC head to head.

    the other path is "if" the Steelers lose to the Ravens, and lose to say the Jets, and a AFC west team ties the 11-5, we win the WC as head to head wins and loses are tossed in 3 way situations.

    Which, once again "why" tossing dirt on this season is premature.

    Basically Bros, we just have to chill out and see what happens, the game in NJ is huge though, there is no question about that as 10-6 and two losses to the Jets would mean we are purely in the WC race with the Steelers or Ravens.
     
  12. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    Yet you make the effort to comment on it every time.

    If I want to bring the opinion that we won't win out I think that is thoroughly acceptable. I read the content and understand the thread. I have been doing this a lot longer than you. I know the drill bro......
     
  13. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    You crazy man, I recall you venturing onto patriots planet during 2007..you a trip..:chuckle:

    Keep in mind Aqua an Killahp, there are two types of dolfans, ones that forever believe "we need more this or that" and others who are certain "so and so is no good and must be replaced before we can win again".

    For example, you Aqua are convinced Wr's are the answer to winning, Killahp is convinved the Lb corps must be further upgraded.

    I've yet to go a year without calls for a OC's job, Wr coaches tend to come under fire every other year.

    For myself, I see the most success we have ever had in Miami was with Don Shula and the stability and demands he placed on players, so I am generally slow to call for changes unless it is clear someone is not getting the job done. And "yes" I am quite sick of once again having to go through the Chinese Jigsaw puzzle path to a playoff birth, however the AFCE is tougher now than it has ever been, even under Coach Shula and if that is how it has to be that is how it has to be.
     
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  14. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    You forgot about running the football Pod. Definitely one of my stronger convictions. :wink2:
     
  15. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, I think that has changed as well, think about this, Sparano came out in public and said "I did not want (Dan Henning) to get discouraged and go away from the run when it was not working.."

    That was obvious to anyone who watched the Dolphins this year, but Sparano speaking publicly about calling more running plays, over Henning's play calls, says more than I could type, Henning has been doing this for 30 yrs and Sparano disregarded his calls for his own..inow barring some massive turnaround in Henning's performance, someone is getting the Pasqualoni treatment this offseason.

    Which imho is why we saw the ThigCat, and more Wildcat in general, Thiggy inherited White's role, or rather, the role White was supposed to fill but could not.

    Besides, Ronnie and Ricky should still be fresh for the remainder of the season..may as well ride them as far as they can take us.

    BTW, notice the new sigpic?

    Had Wallace and he performed, had Hartline in there and he caught fire, so the way I see it, put Nolan and Sparano there and our OC and DC hopefully elevate their unit's performance.
     
  16. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    After all of the Jets season ending meltdowns in the last 40 years are you really going to guarantee a victory? 8)

    I think the Jets are a very good team. However, they have to be the luckiest 9-2 team in the history of the NFL and could very easily be 5-6. Even as a Jets fan you have to admit that.
     
  17. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    Who does the pictures?
     
  18. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    Some things are just hard to ignore. You set fifty women in a line. You're always going to notice the ugliest one.
     
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  19. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    You use google images, find the image you like, save it to your desktop, open it with photoshop and A)make sure it is not to large B) chose Filter/Artistic/Watercolor and it does it automagically, you can play with tones and colors etc but normally they come out great just with that method alone.

    I think it is a funny image as Nolan is kicked back and relaxed and barely has his hands in his pocket, Sparano looks like he has his hands around a winning lottery ticket at the bottom of his pockets and he has his hands jammed down into each one so hard his shoulders are slumped over.

    West Coast Laid Back vs Northeast Uptight to be sure
     
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  20. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    :lol:

    I'll take that as a compliment.
     
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  21. GridIronKing34

    GridIronKing34 Silently Judging You

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    Eh I thought it was to funny to pass up lol.
     
  22. Phinvader Bill

    Phinvader Bill The all new Mr. Event

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    [​IMG] :up:
     
  23. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    You know I ragged on the Thigpen draw which I still think was an iffy call on 3rd and 12 but I get it now. We were playing ball control there. I watched the game again and it worked for what they wanted to do in that situation. He did pick up 8 yards and put the ball in the middle of the field for the FG. I was so mad at the time I couldn't see straight. Well that and the beer I consumed LOL. I think we will see it again or at least it gives the opposing D something to prepare for.

    As far as the running game I think Sparano finally gets it. Use Ronnie up. I have been saying it for a while. No sense in having him on the sideline. Ricky should spell him. The running game is a big must for this offense.

    Like the sig.... Photoshop is a hoot. The world is your canvas bro.
     
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  24. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    I love this place :lol:
     
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  25. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Until they throw the ball from the Wildcat it will be like driving a car with a flat tire, I really want Thigpen to toss it from that formation.


    I think they are out of options Killahp, and Sparano knows it, we cannot ask Henne to pass as much as we have been and expect to have success, that means if Ronnie or Ricky, but especially Ricky, pound the ball 40 plus times a game that is what will happen from here on out.
     
  26. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    That is why Wildcat at the goal line is a waste of a down. They know we can't throw it from the formation. They ran it the other day again. Burning downs is not one of my favorite things to do obviously. I'm feeling you on the Thigpen toss.

    They have asked Henne to do too much. Everyone is sick of me saying it I know but it has been a glaring issue. Once again this offense has to run the football for success.

    Balance is the key.
     
  27. CaribPhin

    CaribPhin Guest

    KP, you keep this up, when they invent online bullets, you'll be done! :lol:
     
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  28. Killerphins

    Killerphins The Finger

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    Kevlar...... my only friend. :wink2:
     
  29. padre31

    padre31 Premium Member Luxury Box

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    Well, to me if a ThigCat play doesn't work it is no different than any other negative play so I don't mind it as long as it was well designed, what I think doesn't work is end arounds at improper times..I'll take the Thigcat 99% of the time over a end around that loses 12 yds when the offense is driving.

    If that means Thiggy on the edge of the formation in an option or veer look, by all means use it as that is a proven play in football.


    Eh well that is a dual edged sword KP, if Henne were more accomplished putting the ball in your Qb's hands to generate offense should be a positive thing.

    And as I said Sparano is going to pound the rock..period...that is not to say there will be no passing but Sparano will run the ball even if it looks like the first 20 minutes of Saving Private Ryan, think of it as a challenge to the offensive line.

    Depends, hopefully Marshall has been wrangled a bit with his time off and seeing the UDFA's stepping up, and if we start seeing BM linning up all over the place we will know that Sparano has taken over the majority of the playcalling as Henning simply refuses to do so, Sparano has no such qualms.

    Sparano saw how TO was used in Dallas.

    Anywho, as for the playoff push, to me, the key is running the ball, Henne trending upwards, and explosive plays from the ThigCat, but we more than likely will not see the ThigCat this weekend, unless Sparano has balls of steel as waiving Pat Ramsey means we have Henne, then Thiggy, then Ronnie B, with Brandstater the #3 Qb, huge risk running it...or not.

    The Good Dolphins are the team that involves everyone on the active roster.
     
  30. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    If we beat the Browns we advance to 7-5.
    If the Jets beat the Pats they drop to 9-3.

    We would both have two losses in the division. If we win out we would win the tie-breaker because we would end up 4-2 in the division and the Pats would end up 3-3 or 2-4.

    If the Jets beat the Pats and the Pats lose one other game before we play them then we control our own destiny. That final game in New England would have major playoff implications.

    Here are New England's remaining games:

    13 - New York Jets at home (not an easy win)
    14 - at Chicago Bears (not an easy win)
    15 - Green Bay Packers at home (not an easy win)
    16 - at Buffalo Bills (could be tougher than we think)
    17 - Fins at home

    If the Pats beat the Jets our playoff hopes diminish quite a bit because I doubt we would win a tie-breaker against the Jets. And I doubt they are going to lose 4 of their remaining 5 games. But stranger things have happened...
     
  31. finserg

    finserg Well-Known Member

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    party pooper ! :tongue2:
     
  32. Big Red

    Big Red Long Lasting Freshness

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    My prediction:

    AFC East Winner
    Pats 12-4

    AFC North Winner
    Ravens 12-4

    AFC South Winner
    Colts 10-6

    AFC West Winner
    Chargers 10-6

    Wild Cards
    Jets 11-5
    Steelers 11-5

    Fins go 10-6 or 9-7 and miss the playoffs. Plus we end up with a high draft pick. But I hope I'm wrong.

    My hope:

    The Fins go 11-5 and make the playoffs! :praying:
     
  33. BicketyBam

    BicketyBam No Fist Pumps Allowed

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    You are what you're record says you are :)

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  34. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    That really is quite a brilliant interpretation of that picture...
     
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  35. MarinePhinFan

    MarinePhinFan Banned

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    The record of the 2007 18-0 Patriots said they were 5 games better than the 2007 13-6 Giants. ;)

    Anyhow, if you consider the actual ways they've won 4 games this season you have to admit that they were extremely lucky. Now, good teams usually get lucky and as I said before the jets are a good team, but those games were just insanely luck filled.
     
  36. SICK

    SICK Lounge Moderator

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    lets worry about the browns, i really hope the dolphins players arent thinking like some here "the game in NJ is a big one"

    uhhh if we lose to the browns its not :lol:
     
  37. BicketyBam

    BicketyBam No Fist Pumps Allowed

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    1. I'm in a bar, pretty hammered.
    2. I admit nothing!

    sent from my EVO 4G
     
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  38. Jaj

    Jaj Registered

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    Well then tell Victor to stop hammering you so you can answer for a second. Better yet go to the outdoor patio, the guys will think you're getting a hot text and they'll get jealous. You can say it's Mark Sanchez.
     
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  39. frozenfin

    frozenfin Well-Known Member

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    It's a tough call deciding who to cheer for on Sunday night.

    We face off better against the Patriots on the tie-breaker of division record, which is huge for us.

    But then let's say Pats lose to Jets and one more to either Chi/GB and they go into week 17 with an 11-4 record, they would be playing their asses off. Belichick and Brady at home in a big game scares the crap out of me.

    If the Jets lose to NE and Miami back-to-back, that could be quite the meltdown for the rest of the season playing Pitt and Chi. The Jets have not played as well the last several games as the start of the season... I'm sorry but they looked REALLY good against us and the Pats early in the season. Mark Sanchez has thrown 8 INTs this year, but all of them have come in the last 6 games.

    Patriots on the other hand have been playing pretty solid throughout the year, they beat both the Ravens and Steelers, something neither the Jets or Dolphins can do.

    So what I'm saying is although the tie-breakers are more favorable against the Patriots, the Jets are the more likely team to slip and lose a couple games. If only the Pats would sweep the Jets this year... they would already be 8-4 going against the 7-5 Dolphins in 8 days (if we take care of our business).

    If the Patriots were ever going to get hit with a serious injury bug, now is the time!
     
  40. gamblerx

    gamblerx New Member

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    5 straight wins seems like a lofty goal.
     

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