Snow is coming and season is slipping away.

I'm sorry this is happening to you.

 

If Morocco can somehow make it to the semifinals of the World Cup (like seriously.. how did that happen?!?), Dolphins can turn this around. I do agree it looks bad right now because Tua totally lost his rhythm, but it's not over yet.

I'll still be rooting for the improbable! We're still the 6th seed in the AFC.

 

They should just forfeit and stay in Miami. Only bad things can happen. We don't need the injuries.

 

Honestly, with Hill hurting, Waddle hurting, Armstead hurting, Tua possible ankle injury I think i might throw this one away and sit all of them. Let them get healed for the last 3 games.

 

btw.. even if we lose to the Bills our playoff chances are pretty good as long as we beat the Jets and Patriots. KC, Bills, Ravens, Titans, Cinci are virtual locks, and we can add the Chargers as a WC too if you want (though not certain). No other teams except the Jets and Patriots are close. So our season isn't over even with a loss next week.

I know it sucks to lose like this, but if we make the playoffs in year 1 of McDaniel's tenure with a massive improvement from Tua from last year that's not a bad start. Not ideal, but not bad. We're +7.5 underdogs right now against the Bills, no doubt due in large part to Tua.

 

Well hell, just forfeit the rest of the season so no one gets hurt. Why not just forfeit the entire franchise?

 

If Tua continues to play poorly, then no, I would not agree that there has been improvement.

He deceived me there for a few games, made me think he might have turned the corner.

 

According to the mighty Alexa, there’s a 62% chance of snow in Buffalo on Saturday, with accumulations just over a 1/4 inch. That’s far from a snowmageddon but conditions on the field are going to be slippery to say the least.

 

Let's see how he ends. There are statistical tests for this. If he keeps putting up crappy numbers it will show in the end, but one thing IS clear: he's never played for longer durations against any competition at elite levels prior to this year. That's definitely improvement.

 

Or just a result of scheme and talent level around him.

 

Problem with that theory is the massive dropoff we saw to the backup QBs — shows it does matter who the QB is — as well as the last 2 games where the talent level is the same, scheme is the same, but crap performance. Really hard to push this idea it's not Tua.

 

No real sample there, and you aren't comparing apples to apples. Tua had a 52.7 QB rating before getting knocked out against Cincy, Bridgewater came in and had a 84.1 rating. Bridgewater never started and completed a game. Skylar might not be an NFL QB.

 

For Tua you have large sample size. You don't cherry pick the 1st half against Cinci. He has a 108.2 rating with this cast. Bridgewater you don't have decent sample size, but he performed worse than his own average in his short time with this cast. Either way, it's not expected for an average QB to put up 108.2 with ANY surrounding cast. Not saying it can't happen, but the default assumption here should be if you get that kind of a massive jump in rating it's not only the surrounding cast at work.

 

Well you are saying there's a massive dropoff in backup QBs. The only NFL caliber QB on the roster never played a whole game, and the only game Bridgewater and Tua both played in, Bridgewater played better. I'm aware you have a sample for Tua, but you can't make any valid comparison if there's no sample on the other side.

 

Bridgewater has 60 attempts for us this season. That's about (just under) the equivalent of 2 full games going by NFL averages. Remember he played most of the game against Minnesota. No it's not enough to do a valid statistical comparison given the huge uncertainties in passer ratings under ~150 attempts, but based on the evidence we do have it is a massive drop, just not "statistically significant".

Either way, it's not what you'd expect if the QB didn't matter (i.e., if it's just surrounding cast).

 

In Minnesota, he didn't start that game, the gameplan wasn't written for him, and he didn't get 1st team reps. I don't think you are properly taking into account the differences in opponents either. This stuff will further correct as Tua faces Buffalo, NY, and NE.

 

The difference in opponents further suggests the massive improvement was not just due to the surrounding cast but had a good deal to do with Tua. Remember prior to the Chargers game many people who were against Tua said the Chargers game doesn't count, or that he'd do real well against them, because the Chargers have a bad defense?

If it was surrounding cast + differences in opponents Tua should have done really well against the Chargers. He totally flopped. Again, the theory his improvement was primarily surrounding cast, or that his recent crash is primarily the opponent, doesn't hold water.

What does hold water is that Tua is a major reason (in addition to HC + Hill/Waddle) for the massive improvement from his first 2 years (we do have the sample size for that and the difference is statistically significant) AND that the recent crash is something specific to him. Something likely mental. Maybe as some have suggested he's a "choker". Possible. But whatever it is your theory that it's not the QB doesn't really hold water here.

 

If Tua is an average QB, it's entirely plausible the system and opponents inflated his season numbers (which aren't actually season numbers because he missed difficult opponents and the season isn't over). So you are looking at a skewed set of games to begin with, ignoring previous seasons, and saying "No, this is who Tua is!" Now, Tua having a very bad game against a poor defensive opponent (Chargers) is also possible. You seem to think these two concepts are mutually exclusive. Your logic doesn't make much sense here.

 

It's not "mutually exclusive", just highly unlikely given the massive difference in ratings. Obviously you can keep adding more and more unknown hidden variables to keep up the story Tua's performance this year has nothing to do with Tua per se, but your theory doesn't hold water based on the available evidence.

 

I mean he might have gotten better. He had another offseason of working out. I just don't think he's gotten better enough that his current QB rating is an actual reflection of who he is. I believe that is inflated by scheme, talent, and opponents. This will correct.

 

More fighting over Tua over here. Every topic I click on is an argument about Tua. In regards to the OP....I don't share his sentiment. I don't think the sky is falling, I don't think the poetic drift of an icy snow plague is moving in on our season. I think we're going to lose to the Buffalo Bills and be 8-6 by the of the week. I think after that, we have very very winnable games against Green Bay, The Jets, and The Pats. I think we're going to the playoffs this year with 11 wins and that some of you need to CTFO about Tua having two subpar games in a row. To me Quarterbacks are like MLB Pitchers. Even the great ones get into slumps. Tua has hit a slump. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been in a slump all season long. So has Russell Wilson. Lamar Jackson has had bad games. Patrick Mahomes threw two picks yesterday against Denver. Derek Carr has been average to below average this year, and the beloved Justin Herbert has had his struggles as well. Even Josh Allen had a bad run early on in the season that started against us. Tua is simply in a slump and he's going to come out of it. We're going to Buffalo this Saturday and while I'm expecting a loss, I'm also hoping that Tua snaps the hell out of it and gets back to throwing touchdowns.

 

That's at least a more plausible narrative. Just keep in mind from a purely statistical point of view Tua probably had minimum 5-7 point improvement in passer rating due just to himself to assign a bulk of the improvement (at the moment) to surrounding cast. Anything less than that and you're starting to get into such low likelihoods it's not plausible. Caveat of course is that's "at the moment".

So back to my original comment: let's see how he ends.

 

Making the playoffs by only beating ****ty teams means you get trounced in the playoffs.

We've seen this show way too many times.

 

42-7 defeat on Saturday is my prediction

 

I agree, this season is far from over and I'm not giving up on Tua quite yet. He's played elite for most of the season, only to have two back to back lousy games where his focus is elsewhere. No idea what the problem is, but we know he has the talent once he gets his mind right.

Right now, I'd say goal #1 is to get into the playoffs by any means necessary. That's five weeks away, giving Tua 5 weeks to get over this slump and figure some stuff out. This could still be a super bowl team this season with 'Salty Tua' at the helm, regardless of how many we win or lose the next couple of weeks.

 

Of course it will correct as they are 3 of the top 6 defences in the league, you can't expect him to put up 108 passer ratings against those defences when 2 of the games will be in the snow.

Incidentally, if Tua doesn't get injured and plays the rest of the games this year 8 out of his 14.5 games will be against teams in the top 11 of points allowed (49ers, Buffalo x 2, Pats x 2, Jets, Ravens and Bengals). Over half his games will have been against the better defences in the league.

For reference as it stands Mahomes is in line to play 6 games against the top 11, Allen 6 also. So at least we can drop the whole narrative of Tua not playing against tough defences.

 

Not sure we can now beat the Jets. Pats are pretty bad with current QB so we have a shot with them.

 

have you listened to his interviews lately? It seems like he is blaming the receivers and timing quite often. Not totally, but he keeps hinting at that.

 

Losing multiple games in December is not a good sign. Combine that with a pretty hard up-coming schedule, and Miami could easily miss the playoffs, which is going to be very very embarrassing.

 

I felt that as well, and he somewhat has a point...there was very little separation this past weekend and Tua fires away anyway. Both Hill and Waddle dropped a few each that they usually haul in, so there's a lot of factors in play here that can be tweaked. I sort of agree with cBrad though that a good bit of this falls on the head coach to scheme receivers more open...we shouldn't have two of the fastest receivers in the league not getting open in man coverage.

 

It’s possible Miami could miss the playoffs, but not probable. Right now, Miami is the number 6 seed at 8-5 with the Bills, Packers, Patriots and Jets remaining. The last juggernaut we face will Bills Saturday night. We should…SHOULD beat the remaining 3 to close out the season, although an upset win over the Bills and perhaps another loss by the Bills to perhaps the Bengals or the Bears could really shake up the entire playoff picture.

The Bills were crowned the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl and seeing how many have traded in their Tom Brady jock straps for Josh Allen’s, then the Bills should have already won it all before the season even began. It’s going to be so disappointing though to heat all of the negative Nancy chatter at how the Dolphins suck if they do lose to the Bills, which would make me scratch my head in confusion…if all of you said how GOOD they are, then how does that make the Dolphins suck?

We already beat the Bills this season. It’s difficult to sweep teams in a division every year but we have beat them. They naysayers like to point out how they didn’t have all of their starters. Well, neither did we. Difficult task? Yes. Insurmountable? No

 

I don't agree, at this point, that there are ANY teams that you can say we "should beat." We should have demolished the Chargers. Every talking head picked us to win. Basically zero pressure on Tua all night, and we got embarrassed.

I can easily see us losing out. Offense has been trash for two weeks already, and our defense gives up points like a sorority girl at a frat party.

 

Cool bro, I can't argue with that. I'm not going to. You're right. We might make the playoffs and get trounced right away.

 

I guess making the playoffs no matter how bad we get beat is step 1 towards building a winner. Step 2 is winning more of these games in December so we get to play at home.

 

Would we save anything by moving on from Jones? He’s been a colossal waste of money, especially since we got absolutely nothing from him this year.